47
© Kantar Worldpanel The Irish & UK Grocery Retail Landscape David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Irish & UK
Grocery Retail
Landscape
David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– GB & ROI Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation
>
© Kantar Worldpanel
While the domestic economy continues to struggle
global GDP grows consistently
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Global GDP growth
© Kantar Worldpanel
3 billion
8 billion
7 billion
6 billion
5 billion
4 billion
9 billion
World Population 1950 - 2050
Source: UN World Population Prospects
© Kantar Worldpanel
FAO Food Price Index
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– ROI & GB Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation
>
© Kantar Worldpanel
Cash strapped, cautious although (slightly) less fearful
Source: Kantar Worldpanel & Nationwide Consumer Confidence
Nationwide (Up to May 2012)/ESRI (Up to Sep 2012) Consumer Confidence Index
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
UK Consumer Confidence Index
© Kantar Worldpanel
3% market growth in GB adds £3bn, Irish market
remains flat
5
3 32 2
1 10 0 0
-2
-4
WE & USA Q3 2012 FMCG Sales Performance
© Kantar Worldpanel
How do the two grocery markets compare?
– Market Size
– Grocery Spend per HH
– Market Growth
– Price Inflation
–€9b
–€5,400
– 0%
– 5%
– £100b
– £3,800
– +3%
– +4.5%
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– ROI & GB Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation
>
© Kantar Worldpanel
8.0%
5.0%
5.3%
0.3%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
801
803
805
807
809
811
813
902
904
906
908
910
912
1001
1003
1005
1007
1009
1011
1013
1102
1104
1106
1108
1110
1112
1201
1203
1205
1207
1209
1211
1213
Inflation HH Spend change
Despite increasing inflation shoppers continue to restrict their spend
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )Grocery inflation across 38,000 items
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
So how are shoppers coping?
Buy less
-1%
Trade Down
-3%
Store choice
-1%
© Kantar Worldpanel
44% 2010
46% 2011
47% 2012
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– ROI & GB Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation
>
© Kantar Worldpanel
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
13
Ju
l 08
10
Au
g 0
8 0
7 S
ep
08
05
Oct
08
02
No
v 0
8 3
0 N
ov 0
8 2
8 D
ec 0
8 2
5 J
an 0
9 2
2 F
eb
09
22
Ma
r 0
9 1
9 A
pr
09
17
Ma
y 0
9 1
4 J
un 0
9 1
2 J
ul 09
09
Au
g 0
9 0
6 S
ep
09
04
Oct
09
01
No
v 0
9 2
9 N
ov 0
9 2
7 D
ec 0
9 2
4 J
an 1
0 2
1 F
eb
10
21
Ma
r 1
0 1
8 A
pr
10
16
Ma
y 1
0 1
3 J
un 1
0 1
1 J
ul 10
08
Au
g 1
0 0
5 S
ep
10
03
Oct
10
31
Oct
10
28
No
v 1
0 2
6 D
ec 1
0 2
3 J
an 1
1 2
0 F
eb
11
20
Ma
r 1
1 1
7 A
pr
11
15
Ma
y 1
1 1
2 J
un 1
1 1
0 J
ul 11
07
Au
g 1
1 0
4 S
ep
11
02
Oct
11
30
Oct
11
27
No
v 1
1 2
5 D
ec 1
1 2
2 J
an 1
2 1
9 F
eb
12
18
Ma
r 1
2 1
5 A
pr
12
13
Ma
y 1
2 1
0 J
un 1
2 0
8 J
ul 12
05
Au
g 1
2 0
2 S
ep
12
30
Se
p 1
2 2
8 O
ct
12
25
No
v 1
2 2
3 D
ec 1
3
12 we growth (Grocers RST) 12 we inflation
Grocery Market Growth v. Inflation
Now trailing inflation againPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
© Kantar Worldpanel
So how are shoppers coping?
Buy less
+1%
Trade Down
-2%
Store choice
NC
© Kantar Worldpanel
8.9 8.4 8.2 8.1
7.3 6.8
6.2 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3
4.7 4.6 4.5 3.8 3.6 3.4
2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2
1.2
GB Grocery Category Sales Change (%)
Cross category sales performance
Every category within grocery is showing sales growth
© Kantar Worldpanel
542
287 283
215184
143 141 139 122 114 111 107 91 90 86 8559 45 38 24 23 21 21 19 16
GB Grocery Category Absolute Sales Growth - £m
Cross category sales growth
The Fresh Food categories have added the most in
absolute sales
© Kantar Worldpanel
Multi-channel shopping is a growing dynamic in GB
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– ROI & GB Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation>
© Kantar Worldpanel
0.4
1.9
-1.2
30.0
1.8
-4.6
% change 12 w/e 2012 v 2011
23
27.8
24.3
19.5
6.0
5.9
5.1
Tesco
Dunnes
SuperValu
Aldi
Lidl
Superquinn
% share of Grocery spend (€)
Dunnes returned to growth for the Christmas period
© Kantar Worldpanel
24
Objectives:
Maintain growth ahead of the marketLeave no reason to shop elsewhere
Drive value credentialsBuild shopper empathy
How will this be achieved:
Push multi-channel, especially in DublinUse key events to drive excitement in store
Drive value to counter Discounter threatImprove quality & image of fresh through Homegrown
© Kantar Worldpanel
Objectives:
Sustain momentumExcellent in store execution
Use ValueClub around key eventsCompete on value
How will this be achieved:
Targeted use of ValueClubUse the big brands our shoppers love
Clarity & strength of promotional offers
© Kantar Worldpanel
26
Objectives:
Retain loyal shoppersWin back lapsed shoppers
Build direct link to shoppers & their communityGrow through offering new ranges & services
How will this be achieved:
Providing clear value for moneyOwn Brand focus
Leadership in Fresh FoodInnovation in store & through IT
© Kantar Worldpanel
27
Objectives:
Continue to improve sales performanceReinvigorate traditional strengths
Re-engage with the consumer
How will this be achieved:
Build relationships with shoppersRelaunch the savings card
Refresh in store environmentLeverage traditional strengths – Fresh & Leinster
© Kantar Worldpanel
The Agenda
– Global Context
– ROI & GB Market Health
– ROI Key Trends
– GB Key Trends
– ROI Retailer Evaluation
– GB Retailer Evaluation>
© Kantar Worldpanel
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
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20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
ditu
re)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
Tesco Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons Total
© Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
57
45
33
26
22
19
17
13
13
8
5
3
Iceland
Farm Foods
Asda
Morrisons
Tesco
The Co-operative
Sainsbury's
Independents
M & S
Waitrose
Lidl
Aldi
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices £1/2/3/4 - £%
12 w/e Dec 23 2012
Balance
Value
Values
© Kantar Worldpanel
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
20
-Fe
b-1
1
20
-Ma
r-11
17
-Ap
r-1
1
15
-Ma
y-11
12
-Jun
-11
10
-Jul-
11
07
-Au
g-1
1
04
-Se
p-1
1
02
-Oct
-11
30
-Oct
-11
27
-Nov-1
1
25
-Dec-1
1
22
-Jan
-12
19
-Fe
b-1
2
18
-Ma
r-12
15
-Ap
r-1
2
13
-Ma
y-12
10
-Jun
-12
08
-Jul-
12
05
-Au
g-1
2
02
-Se
p-1
2
30
-Se
p-1
2
28
-Oct
-12
25
-Nov-1
2
23
-Dec-1
2
Morrisons Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change
© Kantar Worldpanel
5 key points…
– 1) Positive long term global food possibilities
– 2) Consumers remain cautious in ROI & GB
– 3) GB marketplace more positive
– 4) Fresh Food a major GB growth area
– 5) Know your retailer & find a fit
