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«The italian scientific advice system to civil protection» Mauro Rosi– Italian Department of Civil Protection
«The italian scientific advice system to civil protection»
Mauro Rosi– Italian Department of Civil Protection
Summary:
•Volcanic risk in Italy •Forecasting activity in the volcanic emergency cycle •Outline of the national Civil Protection support organization (scientific/operational) •Civil Protection scientific advice system in Italy •Decision-making process and open issues
•Conclusive remarks
(1891)
(1944)
(1538)
(1302)
(1888-1890) (VI-VII century)
(persistent activity)
(???)
(1831)
approx. 2 millions people exposed
(2013)
Magnaghi
Vavilov Palinuro
Marsili Alcione
Lametin
i Sisif
o Enaret
e Eolo
Nerita
Terribil
e Senzanome
Italian volcanoes
Civil Protection activities: the “emergency cycle”
PREVENTION EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
RESTORATION
FORECASTING
Pre-eruptive volcanic unrests can have variable duration…
Etna 2011
Pinatubo 1991
…but either a strong or a long-lasting unrest doesn’t necessarily mean a successful crisis management.
Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia): 13 November
1985
Small scale eruption(0.01 km3)
Distance covered by lahar > 50 km
23.000 casualties (Armero) 3 hours after
eruption begin
Sinabung (Indonesia): 29/08/2010
20.000 evacuees
Pinatubo (Philippines) Rabaul
(Papua New Giunea)
Akutan (Aleutian)
Long Valley (USA)
Time slot for
decision-making
Time
Vo
lcan
ic a
ctiv
ity
Operational component
Scientific
compone
nt
Head of Department
High Risks Commission
Centro Funzionale
Centri di Competenza
Operational Committee
Operational Room 24/365
Operational Structures
DPC support organisation
external committees
internal structures
external structures
Centri di Competenza Technical-scientific institutions that, on a financial agreement, provide
services: monitoring, data acquisition and elaborations, research,
support.
DST- Università di
Firenze
Centro Funzionale
Interface between monitoring centres and civil protection.
Internal technical- scientific structure that take care of:
• Data and information acquisition, elaboration and sharing;
• Risk evaluation according to procedures, shared with operational
component;
• Elaboration and releasing of bulletins;
• Support to decision- making (for Department and other authorities).
National Commission for High Risks
Forecasting and Prevention (CGR)
Appointment: Decree 7/10/2011 of the President of the Council of Ministers Duties: Providing technical-scientific advices on queries of the Head of Department about different kinds of risk; Providing indication about how to improve the evaluation, forecasting and prevention capabilities on different risks;
President emeritus
President
Seismic
1 referent + 5-12 members from Competence
Centres or other experts
Volcanic
1 referent + 5-12 members from Competence
Centres or other experts
Meteo-hydrogeological
1 referent + 5-12 members from Competence
Centres or other experts
Chemical, industrial,
nuclear and trasnsport
1 referent + 5-12 members from Competence
Centres or other experts
Environmental and forest fires
1 referent + 5-12 members from Competence
Centres or other experts
Vice-president
CGR- Volcanic Sector composition
1. Vincenzo Morra petrologist (University of Naples)
2. Alessandro Aiuppa fluid geochemist (University of Palermo)
3. Raffaello Cioni volcanologist (University of Cagliari)
4. Lucia Civetta rock geochemist (University of Naples)
5. Massimo Coltorti petrologist (University of Ferrara)
6. Pierfrancesco Dellino volcanologist (University of Bari)
7. Rosanna De Rosa volcanologist (University of Calabria)
8. Marcello Martini seismologist (INGV- Vesuvius Observatory)
9. Domenico Patanè seismologist (INGV- Etna Observatory)
10. Maurizio Ripepe geophysicist (University of Florence)
11. Giulio Zuccaro vulnerability expert (University of Naples)
• Giuseppe Zamberletti (President Emeritus) (former Ministry of Civil Protection) • Luciano Maiani (President) (physiscist - University of Rome - CERN Geneve) • Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza (Vice-President) (applied geologist- University of Rome)
CGR- Volcanic Sector
How it is summoned:
• Upon request of the Head of Department • On autonomous decision of Presidence • At least once a year in joint session
activities:
• Decrees, on a scientific basis, the hazard level for the diverse active volcanoes (alert level)
• Furnishes regular advice to the Department on volcanic hazard issues particularly relevant or sensitive,
• Responds to specific questions posed by the Department.
Composition: (different for each volcano) •Experts of volcano eruptive history and past behaviour •Responsibles of monitoring systems (geophysic, geochemistry) •Civil protection officers Coordination: •Ensured by a member of High Risk Commission in turn Duties: •On site daily assesment of volcanic hazard during volcanic crisis (h24/7days)
activities during 2003 and 2007 Stromboli crisis and 2006 Mesimex exercise
Synthesis Groups (GS)
DA
TA A
ND
INFO
RM
ATI
ON
CO
LLEC
TIO
NS
OPERATIONAL STRUCTRUES AND TERRITORIAL GARRISONS
CENTRI DI COMPETENZA AND MONITORING NETWORKS
E
DPC - CENTRO FUNZIONALE
VOLCANIC
METEO
The decision-making support chain
www.protezionecivile.gov.it
DIF
FUSI
ON
/ D
ECIS
ION
P
RO
DU
CTS
EV
ALU
ATI
ON
analisys, sinthesis and
RISK EVALUATION
connected with predefined possible
scenarios
DAILY/WEEKLY
BULLETTINS
MAPS AND SIMULATIONS
RISK WARNINGS
Aviation authorities Mayors Guides
ORDINARY DPC Regional Civil Protection and Administrations Local authorities Aviation authorities (ENAV, ENAC, AM) Scientific Community Guides
Head of DPC Prefectures
DECISION -MAKING
PREVISIONAL MAPS
DIFFUSION THROUGH A RESERVED WEB -SITE
HIGH RISKS
COMMISSION
PEOPLE
EXTRAORDINARY
Official
Statement
(not
probabilisti
c)
SYNTHESIS
GROUP
www.protezionecivile.gov.it
COORDINATED BY CIVIL PROTECTION
Modalities: Through meeting with people, press release, interview, contact-centre, website,
social network.
Actors:
Scientists release scientific information on the event.
Civil Protection releases information about risk evaluation, consequent
c.p. measures (in agreement with regional and local authorities) and rules of
behaviour
Mayor (by law civil protection authority) releases specific information
about the risk in his municipality and the Municipal Emergency Plan.
Communication to people in emergency situation (e.g. Stromboli crisis):
www.protezionecivile.gov.it
Role of probabilistic models and expert elicitation as a tool at disposal of CGR and GS
May it help also in risk communication to people? May it help people in making individual decision?
www.protezionecivile.gov.it
CONCLUSIVE REMARKS (1)
• Compared to other natural risks, forecasting of volcanic eruption takes advantage from significant precursory activity. •In spite of this volcanic crisis (especially those involving large human communities) are made difficult by: 1) forecasting (when, where and how) is probabilistic, eventually with large uncertainty and 2) Uncertainty makes difficult both operational management and communication to people. •Misscommunication of uncertainty can induce people to believe that volcanic eruptions are always predictable. Scientists know that this is not possible at present (in the full form of when, where and how). •Scientist needs to get used to express their assessment in terms of probabilities and uncertainties, together with terms reference with familiar events. •Long lasting unrests don’t mean easier forecasting capability, instead they imply greater need of preparedness, education and communication.
CONCLUSIVE REMARKS (2)
•The more effective way to get adequate scientific assessment for civil protection operational activity appears to have scientific advisory committees composed by experts with solid experience in the volcanic processes, eruptive history and volcano monitoring combined together.
•Properly calibrated probabilistic forecasting models can offer daily evaluation on the state of volcanoes and help expert panels, but at the moment they can hardly perform better than expert teams. •Indeed potential liability of scientists involved in advise activity combined with intrinsic uncertainties, can at present results in a tendency to over-evaluate hazard (excessive size of areas subject to evacuation) and also in a tendency false alarm during crisis management.
www.protezionecivile.gov.it
THANK YOU
