THE IXTHYS LETTER Issue 9 / June 2016
WHAT IS IXTHYS?
IXTHYS is the Greek word for “fish,” a symbol of both sustenance and
provision. As a company, IXTHYS is both an advisory service and a
Personal Finance System™ designed to help everyone get out of debt,
invest wisely, maximize income and build lasting wealth.
Q: How does IXTHYS find its investment opportunities?
A: Every day we scan the markets for companies with strong organic
growth, trading at a reasonable price, with competent management
and high ethical standards. We time our entries using technical
analysis and hold as long as the company continues to perform.
Q: How does IXTHYS help me during market downturns?
A: Every subscriber has access to our IXTHYS Market Direction
Indicator™ (MDI) which alerts to an oncoming bear market with 91%
accuracy. We use the MDI to move funds into the IXTHYS Safe
Haven Portfolio™ which allows us to profit from market corrections.
“Honor the Lord with your wealth, then your barns
will be filled with plenty.” – Proverbs 3:9
IN THIS ISSUE
1. How to Use the IXTHYS
Letter
2. IXTHYS Market Direction
Indicator™
3. Current Market
Commentary
4. Highlighted Investments
for September
5. Current IXTHYS Portfolio
with buy-sell-hold signals
6. Past Performance
Statistics
7. Educational Article
8. Inspirational Thought of
the Month
HOW TO USE THE IXTHYS LETTER
1. Check the IXTHYS Market Direction Indicator™ (MDI) and Market Commentary sections so you
know what kind of market we are currently in. Any change in the MDI signal between monthly
updates will be emailed to subscribers.
2. Read the instructions given with The IXTHYS Portfolio™ which are based on the current MDI
signal. Adjust your current holdings accordingly. If you are new to The IXTHYS Letter, consider
buying one or more of the holdings in The IXTHYS Letter as directed (those with a “Buy” rating).
Consider adding to any IXTHYS Portfolio companies you already own that have a “buy” rating and
selling any that have a “Sell” rating. Note that we hold up to 18 positions in The IXTHYS
Portfolio™, depending on market conditions, so determine your position size on this basis.
3. If the IXTHYS MDI™ signals that we are in a bear market, consider reducing your positions in The
IXTHYS Letter (we recommend 50% of your initial investment) and putting any uninvested cash
into the IXTHYS Safe Haven Portfolio™ as directed. There are 8 Safe Haven positions so be sure
to divide this univested cash by 8 and put an equal amount into each position.
4. The IXTHYS Plan for Personal Finances™ is Dr. Carr’s method for stewarding your personal
finances. It is intended to help you increase your income, multiply that increase, and build lasting
wealth through strategic investments. This section of The IXTHYS Letter is under development,
but in future issues you will have access to short videos that explain the various components of the
Plan. You can learn more about the IXTHYS Plan by watching this introductory video: CLICK
HERE
IXTHYS MARKET DIRECTION INDICATOR™
Current Market Direction Indicator™: DOWN MARKET.
Date of signal: September 21, 2015.
MDI Signal Strength: -0.2. (Last update: 06/02/16) The range of
the MDI Signal is from +5.0 to -5.0. A cross of the 0-line indicates a
shift from UP to DOWN or DOWN to UP.
Date of previous signal (UP MARKET): January 9, 2012.
Gain/Loss of that signal: +51.6%
Please note that any change in the MDI between now and the next
issue of The IXTHYS Letter will be sent to you as an alert by email.
IXTHYS MARKET COMMENTARY
The MDI Signal Strength has risen from -0.5 in our April issue to -0.2 in this issue. In light of this, our thesis
has changed: we predict we will get an UP MARKET signal this month, pending any unforeseen negative news.
We therefore suggest you consider taking some cash out of the Safe Haven Portfolio.
IXTHYS INVESTING ADVICE
Given current market conditions, we consider it best to do the following:
Maintain 50% core positions in The IXTHYS Portfolio™ stocks
Consider adding shares of our highlighted stock(s) up to a 50% position size
Begin to take some cash out of the IXTHYS Safe Haven Portfolio™
Current IXTHYS Market Direction Indicator™ Chart
Questions? Contact Us
www.ixthysletter.com
THE IXTHYS PORTFOLIO™
The following investments are designed for long-term holds in an uptrending market. We always hold a core position in
each company in the portfolio until the key factors that caused us to buy the stock (see the free report, “The 5 Keys To
Successful Investing”) no longer obtain. During bear market signals from the MDI, we reduce our size in these stocks to
50% and put the cash, along with any uninvested cash, into the IXTHYS Safe Haven Portfolio™.
Last update: 06/02/2016
THE IXTHYS PORTFOLIO
Symbol Company Entry Date
Entry Price
Current Price
Div'd ROI Industry Type of Position
B-S-H
LUV Southwest Airlines 24-Oct-
12 8.81 42.17 0.41 383.3% regional airlines
growth-value
Buy
BBY Best Buy 10-Feb-
14 24.51 32.46 3.11 45.1%
electronics retail
value Buy
SCS Steelcase 16-Oct-
14 15.42 16.20 0.77 10.1% office furniture value Buy
CYBR CyberArk Software 11-Feb-
15 41.94 47.47 0.00 13.2% cyber security growth Buy
MBLY Mobileye 1-Apr-
15 41.98 39.69 0.00 -5.5% driverless tech
IPO - growth
Buy
TSLA Tesla Motors 7-Apr-
15 202.51 218.96 0.00 8.1% electric cars growth Buy
GLOB Globant 1-Oct-
15 30.76 38.76 0.00 26.0% IT services growth Buy
NICE NICE Systems 2-Nov-
15 62.40 64.89 0.32 4.5%
data management
growth Buy
AVT Avnet, Inc. 19-Nov-
15 45.61 41.49 0.17 -8.7%
electronics wholesale
value Buy
ARCC Ares Capital Corp 1-Dec-
15 15.88 14.85 0.76 -1.7%
private equity fund
value - income
Buy
IXYS IXYS Corp. 13-Jan-
16 11.19 10.91 0.04 -2.1% semiconductors
growth-value
Buy
R Ryder Systems 1-Mar-
16 57.24 68.99 0.41 21.2%
rentals and leasing
growth-value
Buy
HSC Harsco Corp. 1-Apr-
16 5.30 6.72 0.00 26.8%
industrial materials
growth Buy
Current MDI Signal % Cash Sources of Cash Directions for Cash
DOWN MARKET 59% of total
Portfolio
50% positions in 15 core positions and 3 uninvested
positions
Begin to take cash OUT of the IXTHYS Safe Haven Portfolio™
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITION (IXTHYS PORTFOLIO):
Tesoro Corporation (TSO): +75.3% from 2/7/14 to 5/1/16 – includes dividends
THE IXTHYS SAFE HAVEN PORTOLIO™
The MDI has signalled a DOWN MARKET as of 9/21/15. Since then we have suggested putting all available cash
into the 8 positions listed below. To date these have returned a very nice +8.9% ROI including over $7.00 per
share in dividends. However, in recent weeks the MDI has risen to nearly the 0-line. We expect a new signal to
occur this month. Thus our current recommendation is to begin reducing your positions in this portfolio in order
to have cash for buying the IXTHYS Portfolio stocks at the next MDI signal.
Last Updated 06/02/2016
IXTHYS NEW HIGHLIGHTED INVESTMENT
The following company is brought to you as suggested new entries in The IXTHYS Portfolio™. All information
presented here is for informational purposes only. Please do your own due diligence before investing. NOTE:
with the MDI signalling a DOWN MARKET, we recommend buying only a 50% position at this time.
STOCK OF THE MONTH: Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT)
Industry: Aerospace/Defense - Diversified
Market Cap: $10.4B
Dividend: 0.21%
Position Type: Value
Business Profile: Textron Inc. has been in business since 1923. It began as an industrial producer but found its niche
during World War II as a maker of millitary aircraft. Today, Textron is one of the largest and most diversified makers of
commercial and retail transport vehicles. The company is divided into 5 divisions and makes products as varied as Bell
Helicoptors, EZ-Go golf carts, Jacobsen lawn mowers, Cessna jets, Beechcraft prop planes, and it even finances the sales of
all those in-house through its wholly owned Textron Financial. This is a huge multi-national company with over 35,000
employees; it is also a component of the S&P500. Management has put in place a strong set of corporate values.
Fundamental Analysis: This value play is largely a play on anticipated increase in military spending over the next
Presidential cycle. Textron has been hard hit this year on spending cutbacks but investors saw the 28% drop earlier this
year as a buying opportunity. Recently hedge funds have been buying shares in bulk. Shares trade at low P/S ratio of only
0.76 on a PE of 14.8, the lowest of the major aerospace companies. The most recent quarter was a blow-out for EPS,
putting Textron well back on track for strong growth this year. We like the fact that shares of TXT trade at a low forward
PE of 12.8 with a 40% projected growth in EPS. Institutions own 81% of outstanding shares and there are not many shorts
on board. Analysts all have a buy or better on TXT. As the chart below shows, TXT has been pulling back since the April
20 report and now look ready to spring higher. We predict TXT will see a high of 60 within 18 months for a nice return of
55% not including dividends. From there we will need to reassess the company’s forward prospects.
Technical Analysis: The daily chart below shows a large Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that will complete on a
daily close above $39.00. The stock is currently in a new uptrend off the February lows and has just put in its first major
period of consolidation (the Right Shoulder). We expect this pattern to complete very soon, initiating a breakout over the
$40-resistance area that should bring in new investors.
IXTHYS WATCH LIST
The following companies are brought to you as part of our ongoing research process. These are companies that
have passed most or all of our financial and ethical filtering process but for various reasons are not yet ready
for long-term investments. They remain “stocks of interest.”
THE IXTHYS PLAN FOR PERSONAL FINANCES™
The IXTHYS Plan for Personal Finances™ is a system developed by Dr. Thomas Carr. It is based on a passage
from one of the Apostle Paul’s letters (2 Corinthians 9:6-11). The IXTHYS Plan is summarized by the three boxes
below. Whereas most personal finance plans teach you to live small, cut back, save, and hope for the best, Dr.
Carr’s system teaches the 7 essential skills needed to increase your income, multiply that increase, and invest it
strategically in order to build life-changing, long-lasting wealth.
In future issues of The IXTHYS Letter, you will learn more about this system and how God wants to partner with
you as your steward your finances toward the fulfillment of the dreams He has placed in your heart!
The IXTHYS Plan video: CLICK HERE
IXTHYS FINANCIAL WISDOM
Financial Wisdom from 3 Wise Men
Article adapted from Investopedia, (by Hans Wagner)
The World's Greatest Investor Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," is considered by many to be the greatest investor ever. He is also known for giving much of his $40 billion fortune to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is dedicated to bringing innovations in health and learning. Buffett is primarily a value investor that closely follows Benjamin Graham's investing philosophy after having worked at Graham's firm, Graham-Newman. (To read more about Buffett, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
Buffett has several excellent investing rules. You can read about many of them in his company's (Berkshire Hathaway) annual reports, which are an excellent source of investing knowledge.
Here are three of Buffett's rules:
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1. If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on.
The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient. The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying.
The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.
The Great Trader Gartman In the October 1989 issue of Futures magazine, Dennis Gartman published 15 simple rules for trading. He is a successful trader who has experienced the gamut of trading from winning big to almost losing everything. Currently, he publishes The Gartman Letter, a daily publication for experienced investors and institutions. Here are three of Gartman's best rules:
There is never one cockroach. When you encounter a problem due to management malfeasance, expect many more to follow. Bad news often begets bad news. Should you encounter any hint of this kind of problem, avoid the stock and sell any shares you currently own. (For related reading, see Evaluating A Company's Management, Get Tough On Management Puff and Putting Management Under The Microscope.)
In a bull market only be long. In a bear market only be short. Approximately 60% of a stock's move is based on the overall move of the market, so go with the trend when investing or trading. As the saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
Don't make a trade until the fundamentals and technicals agree. Fundamentals help to find quality companies that are selling at discounted prices. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy, the exit target and where to set the trailing stop. A variation of this is to think like a fundamentalist and trade like a technician. When you understand the fundamental reasons that are driving the stock and the technicals confirm the fundamentals, then you can make the trade. (For more insight, see Fundamental Analysis For Traders and What Can Traders Learn From Investors?)
The Gambler The wisdom of the late two-time champion world poker player Puggy Pearson offers our last set of rules to follow. "Only three things to gamblin'," Puggy once said, "knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management and knowing yourself." Well, those rules apply to investors too.
Here are Pearson's all-encompassing rules:
Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition Understanding the odds of drawing a winning hand is essential to poker. The 60/40 bets are those that offer the best chance of winning given all the options available. If you only play hands that have these odds or better, the statistics are on your side.
As investors, we should strive to put the odds in our favor with every trade. Finding the best 60/40 opportunities takes time and research, as there are many ways to find good candidates. These can be identified through individual stock selection, top-down or bottom-up approaches, technical or fundamental analysis, value-based pricing, growth-oriented, sector-leaning or whatever approach works best for a particular investor. The point is that investors must be constantly working toward finding and recognizing opportunities as they present themselves. Once you have been dealt the right cards, it's time to take the next step.
Money Management Managing money is an ongoing process. The first tenet is to minimize losses on each opportunity. Fortunately, investors do not have to ante up to play, as in poker, though investors must work hard to find good opportunities. Once you have a good hand, it is time to decide how much money to commit to the opportunity.
While much is written on this topic, let's keep it simple. Basically it is a risk-reward decision. The more money you commit, the greater the possible reward and the higher the risk of losing some of that money. However, if you do not play, then you cannot win. (For more on this, see Determining Risk And The Risk Pyramid.)
Basically, when the best opportunities present themselves, it is usually wise to make a significant commitment. For good (but not great) opportunities, committing smaller amounts makes sense as the potential reward is less. As in poker, most of an investor's money is made in small increments with the occasional big win coming along every once in a while. This requires that an investor evaluate each opportunity compared to others that have shown themselves in the past. Experience is an excellent teacher. Finally, investors can use a stop-loss strategy to mitigate greater losses
should their assessment of the opportunity prove to be wrong. Too bad gamblers don't have such a tool! (To read more, see The Stop-Loss Order - Make Sure You Use It.)
Knowing Yourself The last gambling rule, knowing yourself, means doing everything you can to stick to your discipline. Everyone wants to get on with it to make the next trade, but if that opportunity does not fit within your measure of a good 60/40 opportunity, then you must force yourself to pass. While you will miss some good gains, this will also save you from some hefty losses. Following your discipline is essential for success as a gambler as well as an investor. You must be extraordinarily patient in your search for the right opportunities and then aggressively go after the best ones.
Conclusion Each of these three wise men excels by following his rules. In this way, they have succeeded where many others have failed. While we might not be as wise as these three men, we can learn from the best.
Read more: Financial Wisdom From Three Wise Men |
Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/threewisemen.asp#ixzz4ASv097eh
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