Roberts T. JonesRoberts T. JonesEducation and Workforce PolicyEducation and Workforce Policy
July 24, 2008July 24, 2008
THE JOBS REVOLUTIONTHE JOBS REVOLUTION
America’s Response to Global Challenges:
#1 Quality Workforce In The World!
NCSL Legislative SummitBuilding a Quality Workforce for the Future:
The State Role
Global RealityGlobal RealityAmerican Economic Perspective(1945American Economic Perspective(1945--2000)2000)
American DominanceAmerican Dominance……No CompetitionNo CompetitionUnskilled Jobs with Good Pay and BenefitsUnskilled Jobs with Good Pay and BenefitsHigh Standard of LivingHigh Standard of LivingUniversal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D Universal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D InvestmentsInvestmentsFlexible Labor Market PoliciesFlexible Labor Market Policies
Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward)Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward)Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%)Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%)Availability of Technology and Financial MobilityAvailability of Technology and Financial MobilityPolitical and Economic StabilityPolitical and Economic StabilityEducation & R&D InvestmentsEducation & R&D InvestmentsNew Trade and Economic PartnershipsNew Trade and Economic Partnerships
AmericaAmerica’’s Challenge..Applying Our Ingenuity, Creativity, s Challenge..Applying Our Ingenuity, Creativity, and Resilience in Changing Global Realityand Resilience in Changing Global Reality
CCHALLENGEHALLENGE #1 #1
Increasing GloIncreasing Globalbal CompetitionCompetition
Developing NationsDeveloping Nations
19701970 2 Times 2 Times
20052005 5 Times5 Times
20252025 9 Times9 Times
World BankWorld Bank
Education GainsEducation Gains1990 20061990 2006
NigeriaNigeria Adult LitAdult Lit 55.4 69.155.4 69.1
EthiopiaEthiopia PrimaryPrimary 31.831.8 83.583.5Vietnam Vietnam Secondary 32.2 64.5Secondary 32.2 64.5ChileChile TertiaryTertiary 21.321.3 46.646.6
Kuwait Kuwait PrimaryPrimary 60.2 96.460.2 96.4SecondarySecondary 42.942.9 88.788.7TertiaryTertiary 13.2 17.613.2 17.6
World Bank (Ed Stats)World Bank (Ed Stats)
DEVELOPING NATIONSDEVELOPING NATIONSCONSTITUTECONSTITUTE……
40% of the Worlds 50 Largest Economies40% of the Worlds 50 Largest Economies
70% of the 20 Fastest Growing in Industrial Output70% of the 20 Fastest Growing in Industrial Output
5.5%5.5% Annual Growth in HE Grads vs 1% in DevelopedAnnual Growth in HE Grads vs 1% in Developed
20% of the 50 Largest R&D Investors20% of the 50 Largest R&D InvestorsChina #2 China #2
MeanwhileMeanwhile……..
US College AttendanceUS College AttendanceWas 1Was 1stst now down to 14now down to 14thth in Worldin World
US Share of 25US Share of 25--34 With BA Degree34 With BA DegreeFrom #1 From #1 to #10to #10……soon to #18soon to #18
OECD 2006 / Economist 2006OECD 2006 / Economist 2006
America Is Not FailingAmerica Is Not Failing……The Rest of World Is Catching UpThe Rest of World Is Catching Up•• Economic Growth: India & ChinaEconomic Growth: India & China•• Vibrant Middle Class: Mexico & BrazilVibrant Middle Class: Mexico & Brazil•• Economic Success: Ghana & TanzaniaEconomic Success: Ghana & Tanzania
““The United States Can Still Prosper in a World The United States Can Still Prosper in a World Where Where ItIt’’ss Labor Costs Are Higher Than the Labor Costs Are Higher Than the CompetitionsCompetitions……
But It Can Not Do That If The Cheaper Workers But It Can Not Do That If The Cheaper Workers Abroad Are Also Better EducatedAbroad Are Also Better Educated””..
Econ/NYEcon/NY TimesTimes
CHALLENGE #2CHALLENGE #2
Impact of ChangingImpact of ChangingDemographicsDemographics
Future US Labor MarketsFuture US Labor MarketsDemographicsDemographics
–– Slow Population GrowthSlow Population Growth–– 1% per yr.1% per yr.
–– .03% by 2030.03% by 2030
–– Slow Labor Force Growth Slow Labor Force Growth –– .05% yr.05% yr
–– Increased Percentage of Older PopulationIncreased Percentage of Older Population
–– Fewer Younger People Entering WorkforceFewer Younger People Entering Workforce
–– CoreCore Workforce Age Group is DecliningWorkforce Age Group is Declining
Workforce Increasingly Made up of Less Educated Minorities and Workforce Increasingly Made up of Less Educated Minorities and Immigrant PopulationImmigrant Population
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Smaller Percentage WorkforceSmaller Percentage Workforcein America..in America..20002000 20202020 20402040
AgeAge00--1919 28.5%28.5% 26.4%26.4% 25.9%25.9%
2020--6464 59.0%59.0% 57.2% 57.2% 53.6%53.6%
65+65+ 12.4%12.4% 16.3%16.3% 20.4%20.4%
BLSBLS
US Labor Force More DiverseUS Labor Force More Diverse19801980 20202020 20502050
WhiteWhite 82%82% 63% 53% 63% 53%
Minority 18%Minority 18% 37% 47%37% 47%
Hispanic 6%Hispanic 6% 17% 24%17% 24%
BLSBLS
Midwest 18 Yr OldsMidwest 18 Yr Olds……““Knocking At The College DoorKnocking At The College Door””
20082008 20222022
Potential HS Grad Potential HS Grad 703,015703,015 661,866 661,866
WhiteWhite 550,539550,539 461,876461,876
BlackBlack 81,99881,998 70,986 70,986
HispanicHispanic 36,693 36,693 70,986 70,986
Tot MinorityTot Minority 20%20% 40% 40%
Knocking At the College Door: 2008 Knocking At the College Door: 2008
State Workforce of The Future...State Workforce of The Future...
Depends on Depends on ‘‘EducatingEducating’’ the Dropouts the Dropouts and Minorities We Have Ignored In and Minorities We Have Ignored In the Pastthe Past
Preparing Every State Worker For Preparing Every State Worker For New Higher Skill Jobs New Higher Skill Jobs
Competitive State Economic Policy..Competitive State Economic Policy..Mobilizing A Quality WorkforceMobilizing A Quality Workforce……
CHALLENGE #3CHALLENGE #3
Dynamic Changes In Dynamic Changes In The WorkplaceThe Workplace
Accelerating Impact of Accelerating Impact of ProductivityProductivity……
Half Life of Industries, Companies, Jobs, and Half Life of Industries, Companies, Jobs, and Skills DecreasingSkills Decreasing
Breadth, Depth, & Application of Academic Prep is Breadth, Depth, & Application of Academic Prep is ExpandingExpanding
Today's Students Will Have 10Today's Students Will Have 10--14 Jobs By the 14 Jobs By the Time They are 38Time They are 38
50% of Workers Have Been With Their Company 50% of Workers Have Been With Their Company Less Than 5 Years Less Than 5 Years •• 25% Less than 1 Year 25% Less than 1 Year
DOLDOL--BLSBLS
..Believe Colleges Not Preparing ..Believe Colleges Not Preparing Students for Real World...Students for Real World...
40% Of Employers Say Most Coll Grads 40% Of Employers Say Most Coll Grads Not Prepared for Not Prepared for Entry LevelEntry Level WorkWork……60% Not Prepared for 60% Not Prepared for AdvancementAdvancement
Weakest:Weakest:Global KnowledgeGlobal KnowledgeSelf DirectionSelf DirectionWritingWritingCritical ThinkingCritical ThinkingAdaptabilityAdaptability
AAC&U LEAPAAC&U LEAP
Hart Employer SurveyHart Employer Survey
Resulting In.. Resulting In.. Jobs Eliminated or Redefined.Jobs Eliminated or Redefined.•• Only 4% Lost Jobs to OutOnly 4% Lost Jobs to OutsourcingsourcingFrom LowFrom Low--skill to Knowledge Jobs:skill to Knowledge Jobs:–– Complex KnowledgeComplex Knowledge--basedbased–– HigherHigher--level Academicslevel Academics–– Cognitive/ ProblemCognitive/ Problem--solvingsolving
Reorganization of Work:Reorganization of Work:–– MultiMulti--task & Crosstask & Cross--FunctionalFunctional–– Adaptable skills Adaptable skills –– Increased ResponsibilityIncreased Responsibility
Horizontal Vs Vertical CareersHorizontal Vs Vertical Careers
Education and Certification are Criteria Education and Certification are Criteria for Hiring & Economic Securityfor Hiring & Economic Security
CHALLENGE #4CHALLENGE #4
New Workplace Expectations.New Workplace Expectations.
Projected Job GrowthProjected Job Growth
1.3% Growth Per Yr1.3% Growth Per YrExceeds Labor Force Growth of 0.5%Exceeds Labor Force Growth of 0.5%
85% of New Jobs Require Post 85% of New Jobs Require Post Secondary EdSecondary Ed
12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2%12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2%
DOL:BLS DOL:BLS
Future US Labor MarketsFuture US Labor Markets
ShortagesShortages–– Demand for Skilled Labor Continues to GrowDemand for Skilled Labor Continues to Grow
»» Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010»» 21 million in 202021 million in 2020
Health CareHealth Care TechnologyTechnologyEngineersEngineers TechniciansTechniciansTeachersTeachers ServicesServicesWeldersWelders Energy TechniciansEnergy TechniciansAccountantsAccountants TransportationTransportationGovernmentGovernment ManufacturingManufacturingGeospatialGeospatial
DOL/BLSDOL/BLS
CHALLENGE #5CHALLENGE #5
Economic Impact of Economic Impact of FailureFailure
Future WorkforceFuture WorkforceFewer Bachelor DegreesFewer Bachelor Degrees
LossLoss in Workforce with BA or Higher Degreesin Workforce with BA or Higher Degrees19801980 20202020 20502050
WhiteWhite 82%82% 63%63% 53%53%30% BA+ (2000)30% BA+ (2000)
WorkforceWorkforce GrowthGrowth With Lowest Level EducationWith Lowest Level Education
MinorityMinority 18%18% 37%37% 47%47%15% Black 15% Black 11% Hispanic BA+ (2000)11% Hispanic BA+ (2000)
NCPPHENCPPHE
Economic ImpactEconomic ImpactDecrease in Better Educated WorkforceDecrease in Better Educated WorkforceGrowth in Less Prepared WorkforceGrowth in Less Prepared Workforce
Impact on Personal Income!!Impact on Personal Income!!1980 to 2000 +41%1980 to 2000 +41%2000 to 2020 2000 to 2020 --02%02%
Significant Loss of:Significant Loss of:•• Tax RevenueTax Revenue•• Consumer Spending, etcConsumer Spending, etc•• Support for Higher EducationSupport for Higher Education
AllAll StatesStates Project Budget ShortfallsProject Budget Shortfalls NCPP&HENCPP&HE
MeanwhileMeanwhile……Education Premium Education Premium GrowingGrowing
HS Degree Vs NonHS Degree Vs Non--High SchoolHigh School•• 19801980 19%19%•• 20062006 42%42%•• 20202020 ??????
Earning Differential HS Vs BA DegreeEarning Differential HS Vs BA Degree•• 19801980 38%38%•• 20062006 75%75%•• 20202020 ??????
Unemployment GAP Widens..Unemployment GAP Widens..•• Less Than HSLess Than HS 8.3%8.3%•• HSHS 5.1%5.1%•• Some CollegeSome College 4.2%4.2%•• BA DegreeBA Degree 2.75%2.75%
Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc.Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc.FedFed ReserveReserve ((BernankeBernanke))
BLS/CensusBLS/Census
Education is Key toEducation is Key to……..AmericaAmerica’’s Ability To Be Globally Competitives Ability To Be Globally CompetitiveOur Standard of LivingOur Standard of LivingState Economic DevelopmentState Economic DevelopmentIndividual Economic SecurityIndividual Economic Security
‘‘All StudentsAll Students’’ Needed in the New EconomyNeeded in the New Economy‘‘All StudentsAll Students’’ Need Access to Post Secondary EdNeed Access to Post Secondary Ed
Every Student Needs to Be Academically Prepared Every Student Needs to Be Academically Prepared for Rapidly Changing Demands of the 21for Rapidly Changing Demands of the 21stst
Century Labor MarketCentury Labor Market
AMERICAAMERICA’’S S RESPONSE:RESPONSE:
EDUCATIONEDUCATION
Are We Ready?Are We Ready?
Current KCurrent K--8 System8 System……
•• All Students Not Brought to StandardAll Students Not Brought to Standard•• Not Taking Rigorous CoursesNot Taking Rigorous Courses
35% Taking Algebra I35% Taking Algebra I
•• 88thth Grade AchievementGrade Achievement31% Proficient in Math*31% Proficient in Math*29% Proficient in Reading*29% Proficient in Reading*42% Proficient in Science42% Proficient in Science41% Proficient in Writing41% Proficient in Writing
* NAEP 2007
Current KCurrent K--12 System..12 System..30% Dropout 70% Graduate 30% Dropout 70% Graduate 65% Grads Prepared for Work or College65% Grads Prepared for Work or College•• 21% of Low Income21% of Low Income
Only 56% Take Core CurriculumOnly 56% Take Core CurriculumACT Test Takers Ready for College Level ACT Test Takers Ready for College Level WorkWork•• 28% Biology28% Biology•• 43% Algebra43% Algebra•• 69% English69% English•• 53%53% Soc SciSoc Sci•• 22% All Fields22% All Fields
ACTACT
Dropout CostDropout Cost……30%30%……7000 Per Day7000 Per Day……1.2 Million PY1.2 Million PY……
50% of Minorities fail to Graduate50% of Minorities fail to Graduate
•• $ 309 Billion in Life Time Earnings$ 309 Billion in Life Time Earnings•• $ 17 Billion In Life Time Health Care$ 17 Billion In Life Time Health Care•• $ 9.5 Billion Annual TANF$ 9.5 Billion Annual TANF•• $ 5 Billion Annually In Crime$ 5 Billion Annually In Crime (5% Male Grad) (5% Male Grad)
•• $ 1.5 Billion Annual Remediation$ 1.5 Billion Annual Remediation
…….Costs To Every State.Costs To Every State AEAAEA
……..State of Illinois..State of Illinois…….Only 24% Dropout*.Only 24% Dropout*
Cost to the State Cost to the State •• 11 Billion in Lost Life Time Earnings11 Billion in Lost Life Time Earnings•• $ 647 Million In Life Time Health Care$ 647 Million In Life Time Health Care•• $ 263 Million in Annual Crime$ 263 Million in Annual Crime
(5% Increase in Male Grad Rate)(5% Increase in Male Grad Rate)•• $ 81 Million in Annual Remediation$ 81 Million in Annual Remediation
*Above Nat Average*Above Nat AverageAEA 2008AEA 2008
Current HE System..Current HE System..
Increasing EnrollmentsIncreasing Enrollments•• Less Prepared StudentsLess Prepared Students
Only 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 YearsOnly 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 YearsOnly 54% of Low Income Obtain DegOnly 54% of Low Income Obtain DegOnly 47% of Minorities Obtain DegOnly 47% of Minorities Obtain Deg53% Remediation 53% Remediation Increased Focus on Cost, Completion, and Increased Focus on Cost, Completion, and CompetenciesCompetenciesNew Focus on 21New Focus on 21stst Cent Liberal EducationCent Liberal Education•• Curriculum, Standards, & OutcomesCurriculum, Standards, & Outcomes
AffordabilityAffordability% Family Income Required for the Lowest 20% % Family Income Required for the Lowest 20% of Earners to Attend:of Earners to Attend:•• 58% Comm College 58% Comm College •• 73% 4 Yr Public College73% 4 Yr Public College
Low Income Families % Has Increased While High Low Income Families % Has Increased While High Income % Has DecreasedIncome % Has Decreased
Tuition Cost Increase..State Need Based Aid Tuition Cost Increase..State Need Based Aid DecreasesDecreases
Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of Access Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of Access
Current Workforce SystemCurrent Workforce SystemQQuality Of American Workforce Stagnateduality Of American Workforce Stagnated•• New Entrants Possess Lower Skills New Entrants Possess Lower Skills •• Workforce Needs Access to New Skills/JobsWorkforce Needs Access to New Skills/Jobs
WIA, Comm College, & Tech SchoolsWIA, Comm College, & Tech Schools
Lack of Alignment With Evolving Workplace Lack of Alignment With Evolving Workplace Requirements (Certification)Requirements (Certification)
Lack of Public Clarity of Programs, Access, and Lack of Public Clarity of Programs, Access, and Financial SupportFinancial Support
Lack of Lack of ‘‘Quality StandardsQuality Standards’’ and and ‘‘Outcome Outcome MeasuresMeasures
NATIONAL & STATE COMMITMENT NATIONAL & STATE COMMITMENT TOTO
QUALITY WORKFORCEQUALITY WORKFORCE……..
Education And Training for Education And Training for the 21the 21stst CenturyCentury
KK--12 Education12 EducationCommitment for State ActionCommitment for State Action
Accountability for Accountability for ‘‘AllAll’’ Students to Standard by 4Students to Standard by 4thth, 8, 8thth, & , & 12th Grade. (Low Income & Minority)12th Grade. (Low Income & Minority)
Increased Number of 8Increased Number of 8thth Graders Taking Higher Level Math Graders Taking Higher Level Math and Scienceand Science
HS Degree That Signifies College/Work ReadinessHS Degree That Signifies College/Work Readiness•• Core Curriculum for Core Curriculum for ‘‘AllAll’’ StudentsStudents
Early & Continuous Remedial SupportEarly & Continuous Remedial Support
Pathway to Grad/Coll for At Risk & DropoutsPathway to Grad/Coll for At Risk & Dropouts
Turn Around for Low Performing SchoolsTurn Around for Low Performing Schools
Focus on Graduation RatesFocus on Graduation Rates ACHIEVE/JFFACHIEVE/JFF
HIGHER EDUCATIONHIGHER EDUCATIONAccessAccess•• Minority/Low Income Participation and GraduationMinority/Low Income Participation and Graduation
AccountabilityAccountability•• Standards, Curriculum, Competency, Assessment, and RemediationStandards, Curriculum, Competency, Assessment, and Remediation
Students, Curriculum, and ProfessoriateStudents, Curriculum, and Professoriate
Alignment of Education PipelineAlignment of Education Pipeline•• KK--16 Council 16 Council
Financing, Standards, Curriculum, and AssessmentsFinancing, Standards, Curriculum, and AssessmentsTeachersTeachersCurriculum and AssessmentsCurriculum and Assessments
AffordabilityAffordability•• Constraining Escalating College CostsConstraining Escalating College Costs•• Increased Increased ‘‘EconomicEconomic’’ Investment in HEInvestment in HE•• Increase Needs Based SupportIncrease Needs Based Support
Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority)Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority)
Continuous ImprovementContinuous Improvement•• HE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students Will HE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students Will
EnterEnter
Liberal Education for the 21Liberal Education for the 21stst CenturyCenturyCurriculum & Investment in Student Outcomes!!Curriculum & Investment in Student Outcomes!!
AAC&U/AAC&U/ LEAPLEAP
Federal/State Commitment To..Federal/State Commitment To..New Workforce ModelNew Workforce Model
Outcome Standards for Workforce TrngOutcome Standards for Workforce Trng
Industry Recognized:Industry Recognized:•• Schools, Curriculum, & CertificationSchools, Curriculum, & Certification
Public TransparencyPublic Transparency•• Public Awareness of Employment PipelinesPublic Awareness of Employment Pipelines•• Certified Schools and OutcomesCertified Schools and Outcomes
Financial SupportFinancial Support•• Transparent and ContinuousTransparent and Continuous
Federal/State Commitment ToFederal/State Commitment To……‘‘Life Long Learning AcctsLife Long Learning Accts’’
Workforce Security in Ever Changing Workplace Workforce Security in Ever Changing Workplace
Individual Ownership of Accts (Like IRAIndividual Ownership of Accts (Like IRA’’s)s)
Access for Adults To Post Sec Ed and TrainingAccess for Adults To Post Sec Ed and Training
Assured Access to Financial Support for Post Assured Access to Financial Support for Post Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees.Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees.
Academic and Industry Recognized OutcomesAcademic and Industry Recognized Outcomes
Assured Access To The Ever Changing Labor Assured Access To The Ever Changing Labor Market In A Flat WorldMarket In A Flat World
Education Must Be Recognized Education Must Be Recognized ASAS……..
The The #1 #1 EconomicEconomic Issue For AmericaIssue For America’’s s FutureFuture
No Longer Relegated toNo Longer Relegated to……““One of Many PrioritiesOne of Many Priorities””““Discretionary SpendingDiscretionary Spending””““Budget BalancerBudget Balancer””
The #1 Quality Workforce..The #1 Quality Workforce..The Key to State CompetitivenessThe Key to State Competitiveness
THANK YOUTHANK YOURoberts T. JonesRoberts T. JonesEducation and Workforce PolicyEducation and Workforce Policy1800 N Beauregard St1800 N Beauregard StSuite 350Suite 350Alexandria, VirginiaAlexandria, VirginiaTel: 703 416 0723Tel: 703 416 [email protected]@mtctrains.comwww.educationworkforcepolicy.comwww.educationworkforcepolicy.com
““THE JOBS REVOLUTION:THE JOBS REVOLUTION:Changing How America WorksChanging How America Works””www.jobsrevolution.comwww.jobsrevolution.com
