The Limits of Resource Use andhowtodeal withthem · The Limits of Resource Use andhowtodeal...

22.03.2010

1

The Limits of Resource Useand how to deal with them

Dr. Friedrich HinterbergerSustainable Europe Research Institute

SeminarA Path to Equitable Global Development - Degrowth in the North and Sustainable Growth in the South?

SID-Globale Verantwortung

Wien, 22nd March 2010

2F.Hinterberger (SERI)Wien, 22.3.2010

Zur Person: Dr. Friedrich Hinterberger

2

Born 1959 in Schwanenstadt/Oberösterreich

Studies 1978-85: economics and statistics, Universität Linz

Promotion 1990: public finance, Universität Gießen

Wuppertal Institute 1993-2000: group leader/acting directorThemes: Stoffströme und Strukturwandel; Ecological Economics

Since 1999: Founding president of the Sustainable Europe Research Institute

Many other activities(z.B. Club of Rome, Austrian quality of Life research initaitve)

22.03.2010

2


Sustainable Europe Research Institute

3

Europäisches Forschungsnetzwerk: Haupt-Sitz in 1090 Wien mit derzeit 22 Mitarbeiternca. 1 Mio Euro Jahresumsatzweitere Büros in Deutschland, demnächst vielleicht F, GR, ...

Themen: Ecological Economics, Konsum, Produktion, Globalisierung, Europa, Nachhaltige Gesellschaften, Politik, Wissenschaft für

Nachhaltigkeit

Forschung: Europäische und nationale Projekte

Kommunikation: Öffentlichkeit, neue Medien

Beratung: Politik, NGOs, Unternehmen


SERI: Team

22.03.2010

3


SERI: Themen


SERI 2.0 – www.seri.at

22.03.2010

4


� Limits! What limits?

� Degrowth in the North and Sustainable Growth in the

South?

� How to communicate OUR responsibility?

OVERVIEW


OVERVIEW



South?


22.03.2010

5


What is Sustainable Development?

Brundtland definition “sustainable development is a development that meets the needs of the

present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet

their own needs”

Alternative by the Forum of the Future“a dynamic process that enables all people to realize their potential and to

improve their quality of life in ways which protect and enhance the planet’s

life-support systems.”

It is NOT (necessarily) …… “sustainable growth” !


ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

22.03.2010

6


ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES


EXTENSIVE RESOURCE USE!

ecospherematerial

water

air

land

InputsInputs

economicsystem

OutputsOutputs

waste water

emissions

waste

22.03.2010

7


EXTENSIVE RESOURCE USE!

ecospherematerial

water

air

land

InputsInputs

economicsystem

OutputsOutputs

waste water

emissions

waste


Global environmental issues

…caused by extensive resource use related to production and use of products!

Mitigate environmental problems by reducing resource use in absolute terms.

22.03.2010

8


• Unsustainable trends of global resource extraction and use

• 80% of world population still live in poverty (< 10 US$ per day) � need to increase consumption

• How to achieve high quality of life for 9-10 billion without overusing ecosystem capacities &

conflicts over scarce non-renewable resources?

• High-consuming countries (incl. Europe) need to reduce their resource use in absolute terms

Global resource use


Resource consumption per day in different societies (in kg per day)

Source: Calculations based on Fischer-Kowalski, M., Haberl, H., Hüttler, W., Payer, H., Schandl, H., Winiwarter, V., Zangerl-Weisz, H. (Eds.).1997. Gesellschaftlicher Stoffwechsel und Kolonisierung von Natur. G+B Verlag.

22.03.2010

9


EXTRACTION of resources per capita per day

Source: SERI Global Material Flow Database. 2008 Version. See www.materialflows.net.


RESOURCE SCARCITY

Various commodities: peaks of extraction reached or

about to be reached

Future decrease of extraction & constricted availability

Peak oil is approaching, about half the world’s

reserves have already been used

LIMITED BIOCAPACITY

= supply of biologically productive area & related

ecosystem services

Demand increases & per capita availability declines

Overshoot & environmental degradation

Scarce biocapacity the limitto future economic

development

ECOLOGICAL LIMITS TO GROWTH

22.03.2010

10


Commodity Peak Depletion

Oil 2010-2030 2050-2100

Natural gas 2010-2025 2050-2100

Coal 2100 2160-2210

Copper 2040-2070

Platinum ~ 2020

Indium 2015-2020

Source: European Parliament, 2009: Eco-Innovation Report

RESOURCE SCARCITY (1): PEAKS


Sources: BP, 2006 and 2007; USGS, 2006 and 2008; NAE/IAEA, 2008

RESOURCE SCARCITY (2): RESOURCE RESERVES

22.03.2010

11


Sources: WWF et al., 2008

LIMITED BIOCAPACITY (1): ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT


Ecological debtor countries face increasing risk from a growing dependence on the biological capacity of others

Biological wealth in countries with ecological reserves becomes an asset that provides an important competitive economic and ecological advantage in an uncertain world.

In a world in overshoot, the uneven distribution of biocapacity raises political

and ethical questions regarding sharing of the world‘s resources. WWF (2008). Living Planet Report

LIMITED BIOCAPACITY (2)

22.03.2010

12


Reduce the overall resource use caused by products

Carbon is not enough!

OVERALL OBJECTIVE


www.materialflows.net

Data base of global resource extraction - time series1980-2005- 12 material categories- 188 countries- combined with GDP and population data

22.03.2010

13


Report on global resource use(2009)

SERI in cooperation with:


Source: www.materialflows.net

Global resource extraction, 1980-2005

Biomass

Fossils

Metals

Minerals

22.03.2010

14


Economic growth and resource use

• Economic growth is closely linked to the use of scarce naturalresources

� Higher input of resources causes more waste and emissions.

� Risks for economy and humanity (climate change, loss ofbiodiversity, desertification, increase of food prices, poverty etc.).

Consumption Quality of LifeResource use


More well-being…

… less resource use!

Many practical examples available

increase eco-efficiency !

22.03.2010

15


Relative (no absolute!) de-coupling of economic growth from resource use



0

1

2

3

4

5

Africa Latin America Oceania Asia World average Europe North America

kg p

er U

S $

Source: SERI and Friends of the Earth, 2009

Resource intensity of consumption

Raw Material Consumption (RMC) / GDP

22.03.2010

16


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oceania North America Europe Latin America World average Asia Africa

ton

ne

s p

er c

apit

a

Source: SERI and Friends of the Earth, 2009

Resource consumption per capita

Raw Material Consumption (RMC) / capita


• Relative de-coupling (Europe & global)

• High efficiency � high consumption

• “Resource Strategy” needs to address rebound effects

• Concrete policy instruments• Increasing efficiency of companies & products (“eco-innovation”)

• Limit / reduce resource use on macro level (e.g. resource taxes, resource trading schemes, etc.)

• Increase information for companies and consumers

Efficiency and consumption

22.03.2010

17


OVERVIEW


� Degrowth in the North and Sustainable Growth in

the South?



Source: www.materialflows.net

GLOBAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION: 1980-2005

22.03.2010

18


0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

bill

ion

to

ne

s

Industrial- & Construction

Minerals

Metals

Fossil Energy

Biomass

Source: www.materialflows.net and Lutz et al. 2009

GLOBAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION: 1980-2030


EXTRACTION of resources per capita per day


22.03.2010

19


CONSUMPTION of resources per capita per day



Extraction vs. consumption per capita, 2000

Stefan Giljum 38

0

5

10

15

20

25

EU-25 OECD

(non-EU)

Emerging

Economies

RoW

ton

ne

s p

er

cap

ita

22.03.2010

20


Raw Material Trade Balance

Stefan Giljum 39

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

mil

lio

n t

on

ne

s


Trade dependency, all resources

Stefan Giljum 40

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

RoW

Emerging Economies

OECD (non-EU)

EU-25

Net-imports in relation to domestic extraction

22.03.2010

21


Trade dependency, metal ores

Stefan Giljum 41

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

RoW

Emerging Economies

OECD (non-EU)

EU-25

Net-imports in relation to domestic extraction


Value of world trade volumes1950 to 2006

Source: WTO. 2008. International trade statistics 2008. World Trade Organisation, Geneva.

22.03.2010

22


ECOLOGICAL RUCKSACKS:A SENSE OF JUSTICE!


Growth in Trasition

• Initiated by the Austrian Ministry of the Environment (2008-2010)

• In cooperation with SERI and Karuna Consult

www.wachstumimwandel.at & www.growthintransition.eu

22.03.2010

23


www.wachstumimwandel.at


Das Buch

Kann wirtschaftliches Wachstum Arbeits-losigkeit, steigende Armut, Umweltverbrauch und -verschmutzung verhindern oder verursacht es diese Probleme erst?

Inhalt: Wachstumsargumentarium und 13 Gastkommentare von ausgewählten Experten:

Andreas Breitenfellner (OeNB), Helga Kromp-Kolb (BOKU), Hildegard Aichberger und Andreas Zednicek (WWF), Rosa Lyon (Ö1), Caroline Haberfellner und Matthias Gruber (BMF), Dietmar Kanatschnig (ÖIN), Fred Luks (Bank Austria), Wolfgang Schwarzbauer und Ulrich Schuh (IHS), Ina Meyer (WIFO), Michaela Moser (Armutskonferenz), Judith Pühringer (BDV), Niko Paech (Universität Oldenburg) und Hans Christoph Binswanger (Universität St. Gallen)

Anfang Mai 2009 im Mandelbaumverlag, erschienen, ISBN 978-3-85476-296-6

22.03.2010

24


Was bisher geschah

Erarbeitung eines Argumentariums für ein Wachstum, das mit einer

nachhaltigen Entwicklung im Einklang steht (Stakeholderprozess)

Workshops und Konferenz• 16. 3. 2009 “Welches Wachstum? Ökosoziale Marktwirtschaft im Gespräch. Stichwort

Lebensqualität“• 21. 4. 2009 „Redefining Growth and Prosperity“• 13. 5. 2009 Präsentation des Buchs “Welches Wachstum ist nachhaltig? Ein Argumentarium”• 26. 5. 2009 „Wirtschaftswachstum und Ressourcenverbrauch: Entwicklung und Perspektiven“• 10. 6. 2009 „Wachstum zukunftsfähig gestalten – Schauplätze, AkteurInnen, Perspektiven“• 2. 9. 2009 „Wirtschaft gesund schrumpfen?“ – Vortrag von Dennis Meadows• 27. 1. 2010 „SciBarCamp Growth in Transition“• 28./29. 1. 2010 „Growth in Transition“ (internationale Konferenz mit über 550 TN)

Diskussionspapier, online Diskussionsforum

Website www.wachstumimwandel.at und www.growthintransition.eu


Partners

22.03.2010

25


Summary of results

− Resource use: European economy highly interconnected with the rest of the world and dependent

on resource imports (metal ores & fossil fuels)

− Possible strategies: − ensure access to foreign resources

− increase domestic extraction and supply− increase resource productivity

− reduce demand

− Need to consider global dimension in environmental and resource policies (responsibility of consumption)


Summary of results

− International trade:

− Net-flows of resources from low- and middle-income countries to high income countries

− Trade reinforces inequalities in resource extraction and resource consumption

− Role of resource exports in development strategies

− Sustainable development: contraction & convergence?

22.03.2010

26


A scenario on growth and resource use*

Scenario until 2050:

• Proportion of high income doubles from 18% to 36%

• 45%: 1/2 wealth

• Remaining 19%: 1/10 wealth

� Achievable with 3% GDP growth p.a. i.e. growth of Factor 4 of world GDP

(with practically no growth in rich world regions!)

*Meinhard Miegel (2008): Zukunft und Risiko. Die Folgen des Fortschritts. NZZ Podium, 31/01/2008

51


World GDP x 4 (equal to 3% p.a.)

= Resource use x 4

BUT:to halve the world‘s resource use

we need

an increase of resource productivity by a Factor 8

= 6% productivity growth p.a.

(with practically no growth in rich world regions!)

52

A scenario on growth and resource use

22.03.2010

27


In the above scenario

GDP growth in the rich part of the world

by 3% p.a.

whilehalving the world‘s resource use

requires

an increase of resource productivity by a Factor 30 !

= 9% productivity growth p.a.

53

A scenario on growth and resource use


Ökonomischer Wachstumsdialog

22.03.2010

28


Growth rates ARE declining!

Daten: 1948–2007 Statistik Austria; 2008–2009 WIFO Konjunkturprognose (September 2008)


Instabilität der Finanzmärkte

„ The current crisis can be

understood as the

unsuccessful attempt to

fight against declining

growth rates“

(Andreas Breitenfellner, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, April 2009)

22.03.2010

29


Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung


OVERVIEW



South?


22.03.2010

30


Why is measuring important?

“You can’t manage what you can’t measure”

Clear communication in an understandable way is key to reach target audiences.

Targets can only be defined based on clear measurement systems and robust indicators.

Policy makers demand solid information to design appropriate policy responses.

(Self-) evaluation and (cyclical) re-design of policies

-> scoping, visioning and learing! (www.matisse-project.net)


“You can’t manage what you can’t measure”

Robust data and indicators are requirements for target setting and monitoring of sustainability strategies.

Quantitative targets for reducing resource use on company and product level.

Better information for ALL decision makers is required.

22.03.2010

31


Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress (“Stiglitz-Commission”)

Aims: • to identify the limits of GDP as an indicator of economic performance and social progress

• to consider additional information for the production of a more relevant picture

• to discuss how to present this information in the most appropriate way

• to check the feasibility of measurement tools

Outcome: Final report of the Commission (October 2009) that gains a lot of political interest and discussion

How should we measure progress (1)

www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr



62

Communication from the Commission 20 August 2009: GDP and beyond - Measuring progress in a changing world

GDP should be complemented by a comprehensive environmental index (beyond CO2) and the measurement of quality of life and wellbeing!

http://www.beyond-gdp.eu

22.03.2010

32



63

Communication from the Commission 20 August 2009: GDP and beyond - Measuring progress in a changing world

GDP should be complemented by a comprehensive environmental index (beyond CO2) and the measurement of quality of life and wellbeing!

http://www.beyond-gdp.eu


„Frontpage indicators“: the big 3 ?

Economic (GDP) growth

Quality of life

(... environment ...)

22.03.2010

33


„Frontpage indicators“: the big 3 !

Economic (GDP) growth

Quality of life

Overall resource use !


Distribution of European resource consumption

Source: Calculations based on Moll, S., Watson, D. 2009. Environmental Pressures from European Consumption and Production. A studyin integrated environmental and economic analysis. European Topic Centre of Sustainable Consumption and Production, Copenhagen.

22.03.2010

34


ECR WORKING GROUP ON SUSTAINABILITY


GHG – green house gas emissions

Water

Land Use

Abiotic materials

Biotic materials

Carbon Footprint

Water Footprint

Biotic Material Input

Abiotic Material Input

Actual Land Use

Environmental Categories Our Indicator Set

LIFE-CYCLE MEASUREMENT

ProductionManu-

facturingDistribution Retailer Use

DisposalRecycling

22.03.2010

35


Dynamic Scale (A-G)product category benchmarking

Overall performance

B

CarbonFootprintCarbon

Footprint C

WaterFootprint

WaterFootprint B

Actual Land Use

Actual Land Use B

BioticMaterial

Input

BioticMaterial

InputA

AbioticMaterial

Input

AbioticMaterial

InputC

Additional Information

e.g. Fair Trade

CONSUMER COMMUNICATION


22.03.2010

36


VISUALIZATION EXAMPLERESULTS FOR LIGHT BULBS

8 YEARS/8.000 OPERATING HOURS

LOW-ENERGY LIGHT BULB

LIGHT BULB


VISUALIZATION EXAMPLERESULTS FOR LIGHT BULBS for DAILY CONSUMPTION

LIGHT BULB LOW-ENERGY LIGHT BULB

10 LAMPS (FLAT)/DAILY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA FAMILY FLAT/3 PERSONSWITH OFFICE (30 LAMPS)

22.03.2010

37


GDA - Guideline Daily Amount

Carbon Footprint

935g

17%

Water Footprint

?

22%

Actual Land Use

7,8 m²

16%

Biotic Material

Input

?

20%

AbioticMaterial

Input

2250g

15%

Additional Information: e.g. Fair Trade

Sustainble levels of resource use:

CO2: 5,5kg/cap/dLand Use: 49 m²/cap/d

Abiotic Material: 15kg/cap/d

22,,77kgkg

LABELLING PRODUCTS: POSSIBLE CONSUMER COMMUNICATION


A set of environmental indicators

main categories of quantitative resource use

plus the output-category CO2-emissions

Indicators applied

GHG emissions

Water

Land use

Non-renewable resources

Renewable resources

Carbon Footprint

Water Rucksack

Biotic Material Rucksack

Abiotic Material Rucksack

Actual Land UseGHG emissions

Water

Land use

Non-renewable resources

Renewable resources

Carbon Footprint

Water Footprint

Biotic Material Input

Abiotic Material Input

Actual Land Use

22.03.2010

38


Resource use category Product level National level

Materialsbiotic

Material Rucksack of products

biotic Material flow-based indicators of countries(including materials embodied in imports and exports)

biotic

abiotic abiotic abiotic

WaterWater Rucksack / Water Footprint of products

Water Rucksack / Water Footprint of countries(including water embodied in imports and exports)

Land area Actual land use of products Actual land use of countries(including land embodied in imports and exports)

GHG emissions Carbon Footprint of products National GHG emissions(including GHG emissions embodied in imports and exports)

A set of environmental indicators

also for projects! also for regions!


BUT

What about …

- work/employment- redistribution/cohesion- taxes/government deficit- …

?????

22.03.2010

39


ENV

IRO

NM

ENTA

L C

HA

NG

E a

nd

PU

BLI

C

FIN

AN

CE

UN

EMP

LOY

MEN

T

an

d S

OC

IAL

SEC

UR

ITY

Replace income tax (partly) by material input tax, CO2 tax

subsidy-shift, regulations

Reduction of annual working times and increased flexibility

Social security through “negative income tax” (basic income)

Quelle: www.a-und-oe.de

Integrated policies


WO

RK

ING

TIM

EU

NEM

PLO

YM

ENT

www.a-und-oe.de

10,5 %

3,1 %

37,5 h

30 h

GO

VER

NM

ENT

-D

EFIC

IT

+/- 0

A Scenario

22.03.2010

40


SERI analysed the global impacts and policy of a European environmental tax reform:

Environmental Tax reform (petrE project)

Environmental tax reform in the European

Union

•Environmental impacts:

•Material extraction

•Energy-related CO2 emissions

•Economic impacts:

•economic growth

•International trade & sectoral competitiveness

•EU-27

•OECD

•Emerging economies

•Rest of theworld

http://seri.at/de/projects/completed-projects/petre/


22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

bill

ion

ton

ne

s

Baseline

S1H

S3H

Baseline = Business as usual scenarioS1H = ETR with revenue recycling designed to meet unilateral EU 2020 GHG target (high oil price)S3H = ETR with revenue recycling designed to meet cooperation EU 2020 GHG target – an overall

30% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (high oil price)

Global CO2 emissions can only be reduced with global cooperation (S3H)

22.03.2010

41


Policy recommendations

1. Combating climate change can only be successful through

global cooperation and global climate treaties

2. Targets to reduce CO2 emissions (by 20-30%) are not

sufficient. Additional measures are needed to increase

resource productivity and to limit resource consumption.

3. The responsibility for resource use and its environmental

impacts should be shared between producers and

consumers.

4. Europe should more actively address the potential conflict

between economic goals and development goals.


How to deal with degrowth (1)

• Growth increases wealth:

� If quality of life decouples from material wealth it becomes less dependent on growth!

• Growth increases employment:

� Economically unclear! �redistribution of work!

• Growth reduces inequality

� Empirically, the contrary is true!

� Rich parts of society “need” less material growth to increase their well-being

• Growth enables aid to 3rd World counties

� No evidence of such a link in Austria!

• Growth enables to finance government expenditures

� Possibility (or even necessity) to re-shuffle taxes from labour to resources

22.03.2010

42


How to deal with degrowth (2)

• Wachstum enables environmental protection

� On the contrary: growth increases resource consumption


Thank you for your attention!

www.seri.at

www.materialflows.net

[email protected]

Date post:	17-Sep-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	vuongkhanh
View:	214 times
Download:	0 times

The Limits of Resource Use andhowtodeal withthem · The Limits of Resource Use andhowtodeal...

Documents