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The Banking System
Reserves(Cash in vault)
T-Bills(Liquidity & income)
Loans(Banks’ earnings)
Demand Deposits (Checking; Transaction)
Equity
Assets
Liabilities & Equity
Accounting Identity: A L + E
M1
+$10,000
+$10,000
+$8,000
+$8,000
+$2,000
The Role of the Fed
The Fed buys/sells Treasury securities.
This raises/lowers bank reserves.
This raises/lowers excess reserves.
This causes banks to increase/decrease loans.
This will raise/lower measured money, M1.
Grinding it out: Terms
TR = Total Reserves = RR + ER RR = Required Reserves
rrD = required reserve ratio
ER = Excess Reserves = ER* + ERu
ER* = Desired excess reserves
ERu = Undesired excess reserves
e = the desired excess reserve ratio
The Federal Reserve
determines rrD.
Banks determine
e.
D = (Demand) Deposits C = Currency in circulation
c = desired currency ratio
MB = Monetary Base = C + TR M1 = Money Supply = C + D Δ = “Change In …”
The public determines c.
Grinding it out: Terms
Deriving RR, ER* and C
RR = Required Reserves = rrD•D
where rrD is the required reserve ratio (0 to 1), and it is fixed to the level of demand deposits (D).
ER* = Desired Excess Reserves = e •D where “e” is the excess reserve ratio and is presumed
to be fixed to the level of deposits (D).
Note that ERu = TR – RR – ER* and may be +, 0, -.
C = Desired Currency Holdings = c •D where “c” is the currency ratio and is presumed to be
fixed to the level of deposits (D).
From Reserves to Money
We know that: M1 = C + D MB = C + TR = C + RR + ER* + ERu
In “equilibrium” (no more money creation/destruction): ERu = 0
With some substitution and rearrangement, we get:
where m* is the “money multiplier.”
We can also write this as:
M1 = [(1+c)/(c+rrD+e)] • MB The Fed can change TR. The Fed could change C.
The Fed can change rrD.
Banks determine e. The public determines c.
Who Determines the
Money Supply?
When the banking system is not in equilibrium, we can write this out as:
When ERu is positive, banks will create more money.
When ERu is negative, banks will destroy money.
When ERu is zero, the banking system is in equilibrium.
From Reserves to Money
With a bank holding positive ERu, they will lend these funds out, raising M1. Those funds become part of another bank’s reserves – they will keep some and lend out the rest. This will continue until ERu are zero.
Money Creation:Getting to Equilibrium
With a bank holding negative ERu, they will reduce their loans, lowering M1. [As loans are paid off, deposits fall.] This contraction of the money supply will continue until ERu are zero.
ReservesRR =
ERu =
Loans
Demand Deposits
Assets
Liabilities & Equity
M1
+$10,000
+$8,000
rrD=20%
-$10,000
+$10,000
+$8,000
+$2,000
+$8,000
+$2,000
Money Creation:Getting to Equilibrium
ReservesRR =
ERu =
Loans
Demand Deposits
Assets
Liabilities & Equity
M1
+$10,000
+$8,000
rrD=20%
-$10,000
+$10,000
+$8,000
+$2,000
+$8,000
+$2,000+$8,000
+$8,000
+$6,400
+$6,400
+$1,600
+$1,600
+$6,400
Money Creation:Getting to Equilibrium
ReservesRR =
ERu =
Loans
Demand Deposits
Assets
Liabilities & Equity
M1
+$10,000
+$8,000
rrD=20%
-$10,000
+$10,000
+$8,000
This process will continue until
there are no more undesired excess
reserves.
+$2,000
+$8,000
+$2,000+$8,000
+$8,000
+$6,400
+$6,400
+$1,600
+$1,600
+$6,400
+$5,120
+$6,400
+$6,400
+$5,120
+$1,280
+$5,120
+$1,280
+$19,520
Money Creation:Getting to Equilibrium
Insure Assets = Liabilities
Identify whether there are +/- ERu
M1 = Loans = [m*] • ERu
D = [1/(1+c)] • M1
C = c • D TR = -C Final values = Beginning values + changes
Arriving at Equilibrium
Money = M1 = C + D
Monetary Base = MB = TR + C
m* =
M1 = [m*] • ERu
D = [1/(1+c)] • M1
C = c • D TR = -C Loans = M1 = D + C
Money Creation Formulas
RR = rrD*D
ER* = e*D
ERu = TR-RR-ER*
C = c*D
Money Creation Problem
rr =
e =
c =
$15,000 Deposits $80,000RRDes. ERUndes. ER
$65,000
DepositsRRDes. ERUndes. ER
Money Creation Spreadsheet Form
Loans
Change in L =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Change in M1 = Change in D = Change in C =
Change in TR =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Loans
Money Creation Problem
rr =
e =
c =
$15,000 Deposits $80,000RRDes. ERUndes. ER
$65,000
DepositsRRDes. ERUndes. ER
Money Creation Spreadsheet Form
Loans
Change in L =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Change in M1 = Change in D = Change in C =
Change in TR =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Loans
.05
0
0
4,0000
11,000
+220,000
0
0
MS changed
from $80,000
to $300,000
20*11,000
m* = 1/.05 = 20
1*220,0000*220,000
-(0)C+D
+220,00000
+220,000
300,00015,000
+285,000
15,000
Money Creation Problem
rr =
e =
c =
$15,000 Deposits $80,000RRDes. ERUndes. ER
$65,000
DepositsRRDes. ERUndes. ER
Money Creation Spreadsheet Form
Loans
Change in L =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Change in M1 = Change in D = Change in C =
Change in TR =
Assets LiabilitiesReserves
Loans
.10
.03
.15
8,0002,400
4,600
+18,893
2,893
0
MS changed
from $92,000
to $110,893
4.107*4,600
m* =1.15/.28 = 4.1071428
.8695*18,893.15*16,429
-(2,464)C+D
+16,4292,464
-2,464+18,893
96,42912,536
83,893
9,643
C changed
from $12,000
to $14,464
Quick Hits
Money multipliers are derived from the data: M1/MB = m*1 and M2/MB = m*2
Fed targets for money depends on: which multiplier is more stable, and which M is a better predictor of GDP.