Chapter One INTRODUCTION 1.1. Introduction In the 1960s, the then Hailesellasie I University had a revered professor in engineering, credited for the establishment of the technology faculty at Amist Kilo. However, the German born Yehuda Peter (Prof) is remembered for instilling dreams in his engineering students, many of whom are in their 60s today. For over three decades, some of Peter’s students have been turning into the nation’s finest and most celebrated engineers. Peter inspired a generation of Ethiopian engineers to keep alive his dream and conviction that it is possible to develop vast tracts of fertile land in Afar Regional State and the Ogaden Desert by irrigating it with a network of canals to channel the Abay River. This would require connecting Abay with Awash and Wabi Shebelle rivers, down in the Somali lowlands. Engineers also thought that such a grand project could be of help to upstream countries because it would avoid sedimentation and floods in Sudan, save 10 million metrics of water per year from evaporating from Aswan Dam, and retain a significant portion of unutilized water flowing into the Red Sea. Were this project to be implemented, it would have cost a projected half a billion Birr at the time, according to one of Peter’s students.
Transcript
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Introduction
In the 1960s, the then Hailesellasie I University had a revered professor in engineering, credited
for the establishment of the technology faculty at Amist Kilo. However, the German born
Yehuda Peter (Prof) is remembered for instilling dreams in his engineering students, many of
whom are in their 60s today. For over three decades, some of Peter’s students have been turning
into the nation’s finest and most celebrated engineers.
Peter inspired a generation of Ethiopian engineers to keep alive his dream and conviction that it
is possible to develop vast tracts of fertile land in Afar Regional State and the Ogaden Desert by
irrigating it with a network of canals to channel the Abay River. This would require connecting
Abay with Awash and Wabi Shebelle rivers, down in the Somali lowlands. Engineers also
thought that such a grand project could be of help to upstream countries because it would avoid
sedimentation and floods in Sudan, save 10 million metrics of water per year from evaporating
from Aswan Dam, and retain a significant portion of unutilized water flowing into the Red Sea.
Were this project to be implemented, it would have cost a projected half a billion Birr at the time,
according to one of Peter’s students.
However, the dream has remained unrealized for more than a generation. Ethiopia never tried to
take advantage of its natural endowments from the Nile Basin, primarily due to its inability to
finance projects and geopolitical concerns over Egypt’s reaction.
Yet, this has changed, according to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi;
“… the Millennium Dam will not only provide benefits to Ethiopia but also offer mutually beneficial opportunities to Sudan and to Egypt. Indeed, one might expect these countries to be prepared to share the cost in proportion to the gains that each state will derive. On this calculation, Sudan might offer to cover 30 per cent and Egypt 20 per cent of the costs of the entire project. Unfortunately, the necessary climate for engagement, based on equitable and constructive self-interest, does not exist at the moment. Indeed, the current disposition is to make attempts to undercut Ethiopia’s efforts to secure funding to cover the cost of the project. We have, in fact, been forced to rely on our own savings alone to cover the expense.
The estimated cost will be 3.3 billion Euros, or 78 billion birr. As we will be financing several other projects in our plan, the expense will be an additional and heavy burden on us. All our efforts to lighten this have been unsuccessful, leaving us with only two options. Either to abandon the project or do whatever we must to raise the required funds. I have no doubt which of these difficult choices the Ethiopian people will make. No matter how poor we are, in the Ethiopian traditions of resolve, the Ethiopian people will pay any sacrifice. I have no doubt they will, with one voice, say: “Build the Dam!”
As a result the government’s determination to see the building of the largest dam in Africa shows nothing can stop from exercising the rights, and for other dams the country plan to build are less challenging than this as stated by the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in the patriotic speech made on April 2, 2011, at the site of a new dam to be constructed on the Abay River in Benishangul Gumuz Regional State.
1.2. Statement of the Problem
Ethiopia is endowed with abundant water resources distributed in many parts of the country
however; it has not made significant progress in the field of water resources development during
the past four decades. The Ethiopian government has for long recognized that economic progress
will depend principally on the development of the hydropower resources of the country. In
particular, the exploitation of hydropower potentials was not noticeably successful in spite of
being given priority as a major field of national development.
Considering the substantial hydropower resources, Ethiopia has one of the lowest levels of per
capita electrical consumption in the world. Out of hydropower potential of about 45, 000 MW,
until 1997 E.C only about 360 MW (less than 2%), currently 2,000 MW, which is less than 5 %,
is being exploited currently.
Presently, more than 90% of energy consumed in the country is derived from biomass fuels and
is almost entirely used for cooking. The use of these fuels has resulted in massive deforestation
and soil erosion.
However, there is still a huge gap between the demand and supply side of the modern Ethiopia electric consumption. To alleviate the problem, what has to be done was the daily question of the people and government.
1.3. Objectives of the Study
The General Objectives of paper is tries to address what major activities are performed in the Preliminary construction stage of the Ethiopian renascence dam project. Specifically this study is concerned to analyze the following specific objectives:
To show what are the inputs used in the project. To explain what the processes are used in this preliminary stage of the project. To find out what out puts are expected in the preliminary stage of the project.
1.4. Significance of the study
The General aim of the paper is to examine how the theoretical knowledge of operation
management is applied in the actual practices and relating what we had learned theoretically
with what is happening practically in real situation of the hydroelectric power dam construction
project which is being undertaken by the full finance of the Ethiopian People and the
Government. As the same time, the paper is significant for different parties like the Ethiopian
people, Ethiopian Electric power Corporation, Agencies and other internal and external party
who are working, serving and engaged in the construction of the hydroelectric power project.
Finally, the paper tries to serve as a reference for further studies in the field of hydroelectric
projects.
1.5. Methodology
In organizing the study so as to meet and arrive at its objectives, the researchers will employ the
qualitative method of research design particularly descriptive type of research. Since this type of
research is aimed at describing the current practice of the project, by employing secondary data
from internet, books, magazine, journals, and government reports.
1.6. Limitations
The survey is faced with the following limitations due to;
the stage of the project (premature stage) which lacks information and valuable data
the broad nature of the subject,
shortage of time, and
finance.
Thus the paper does not include all the details of project.
Chapter Two
Literature Review
2.1 Hydropower Development in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is endowed with abundant water resources distributed in many parts of the country
however; it has not made significant progress in the field of water resources development during
the past four decades. In particular, the exploitation of hydropower potentials was not noticeably
successful in spite of being given priority as a major field of national development. Considering
the substantial hydropower resources, Ethiopia has one of the lowest levels of per capita
electrical consumption in the world. Out of hydropower potential of about 15,00030,000 MW,
only about 360 MW, which less than 2 % has been exploited by 1997. The total production of the
above mentioned hydropower plants are 1,469.0 GHz/yr. (1994/1995).
Table 1 Hydropower Plants and Installed Capacity
Plant System
Installed
Capacity MW
Guaranteed
Capacity MW
Energy
Generation in
GWH/year
Year of
Commission
Finchaa HPP ICS 100 100 616 1973
Melka Wakena HPP ICS 153 148 434 1988
AwashII HPP ICS 32 26 135 1966
AwashLII HPP ICS 32 32 135 1974
Koka HPP LCS 43.2 25 70 1960
TisAbbay I HPP ICS 11.4 3.8 27 1964
Total ICS 371.6 334.8 1,417
Yadot HPD SCS 0.35 0.3,5 1.2 1990
Sor HPP SCS 5 5 48 1990
Dembi HPP SCS 0.8 0.8 2.8 1991
Total SCS 6.15 6.15 52
Grand Total 377.75 340.95 1,469
The agency responsible for electric power in Ethiopia is the Ethiopian Electric Light and Power
Authority (EELPA and recently renamed EEPCO). This Authority is responsible for the
investigation, development and subsequent construction of power generation schemes. It is also
responsible for the transmission and distribution of electrical energy.
The EELPA early operates by two systems, the interconnected (ICS) and the self-contained
system (SCS). The ICS were an Installed capacity of 360 MW with six hydropower stations arid
two diesel stations formerly contributing 6.5 MW which are then retired. The total energy output
capacity of the ICS is about 1600 GWH/year. The ICS were supplies demand centers within an
approximate radius of 400 kilometers around Addis Ababa.
Supply in the SCS is dominated by diesel generators although there is some small hydropower
stations dispersed here and there. The generating capacity of the SCS were about 30 MW and the
load centers served are dispersed mostly in the border power schemes were commissioned in
Ethiopia. Ever since hydropower development started in Ethiopia, a total of 366.2 MW capacity
in the ICS and 16.5 MW (Tis Abay and Sor) in the SCS had been installed. Besides small
stations such as Dembi, Yadot and Chemoga have also been in operation.
The Aba Samuel plant has been inoperative since 1970. In addition three small hydropower
stations around Jimma, Debre Birhan and Dire Dawa were abandoned due to old age at various
points of time.
Though efforts are directed towards the development of medium scale hydropower plants in
response to a policy decision that electrical capacity deficit would best be addressed by
concentrating initially on medium projects, the Gilgel Gibe (180 MW capacity) projects
construction program which has long been delayed has now come into the picture. The tunneling
works are presently out for tender whilst the major components of the project works are awaiting
the outcome of the pre qualification of potential contractors.
3. Projects Identified for Power Development
3.1 The Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia
Ethiopia has a vast hydropower potential, which is estimated to be about 15,000 30,000 MW. So
far very little percentage (less than 2%) of the vast potential has been harnessed. In order to
develop this vast potential of power several projects have been initiated to generate more and
more hydroelectric power.
Some 300 hydropower plant sites in the whole eight river basins of the country with a total
technical power potential of 159,300 Gwh/year have been identified. Out of these potential sites,
102 are large scale (more than 60 MW) and the rest are small (less than 40 MW) and medium
scale (4060 MW) hydropower plant sites (See Table 1.2).
3.1.1 Large Scale Hydropower Projects
The favorable sites for Large Scale Hydropower Development Scheme within nver basins of
Ethiopia number 102 and are fairly distributed throughout the width and breadth of the country.
As the development of these schemes requires huge investment, they are not in the priority list
by the government. Nevertheless, projects like Gilgel Gibe (180 MW) hydropower projects are
presently under construction, and it is assumed, when commissioned, would alleviate the current
critical power shortage to a certain degree.
3.1.2 Medium Scale Hydropower Projects
The promising and candidate sites for the development of Medium Scale Hydropower
Development number 25. From these potential sites three in Tekeze, three in Gojeb and one in
the Blue Nile Basin had been selected for studies.
Table 3 Development of Hydropower in Ethiopia
Name of
Hydropower
Scheme
Year of
Commissioning
G.C.
Installed Capacity
(MW)
Energy Production GWh/Year
Energy
Average Firm
Aba Samuel 1932 6 1.5
TisAbay 1953 11.5 68 55
Koka 1960 43.2 110 80
Awash II 1966 32 165 120
Awash III 1971 32 165 120
Fincha 1973 100 617 613
Melka Wakena 1989 153 560 440
Sor 1990 5 60 48
Smaller
Stations 1.15 5 4
1,705 1480
In 1995 a reconnaissance level study on the hydropower potential of the rivers Tekeze and Gojeb
were carried out for the selected sites in each basin. The study evaluated the three schemes in
response to a policy decision that the electrical capacity deficit would best be addressed by
concentrating initially on medium scale projects. In the study, the three schemes were ranked
according to the unit energy cost which in turn were based on estimate of construction and
environmental costs and of the comparative value of the energy benefits. The report finally
recommended that two sites in each basin be selected for further studies.
Presently, following the outcome of the prefeasibility and feasibility reports conducted in
September 1996; detail designs are being conducted for one bestrecommended site in each river
basin.
The Tis Abbay II (67 MW) hydroelectric project was also studied to a reconnaissance level
among other medium capacity hydroelectric projects which are considered for an urgent
development, as a means to quickly solve the need for additional generation capacity in the
interconnected power system. Tis Abbay II was identified by preliminary reconnaissance studies
as the project to be developed as a first priority, due to its economic attractiveness, and to its
short expected duration of construction.
The Tis Abbay II power plants take the advantage, as much as possible of the recently completed
regalating Chara Chara Weir which is capable to discharge around 110 m3/sec for the minimum
operating level. This weir which is 2 to 3 meter high is used for establishing a permanent pond in
which the water is taken for feeding the power plant through inlet channel.
And thus, Tis Abbay II project, because no darn is required to regulate flows or to provide the
generating head, is likely to provide electrical energy at a lower unit cost than other potential
schemes in the program. For this reason, and also because of its strategic location with respect to
the northern electrification program, Tis Abbay II is likely to be the most attractive of all the
schemes and the first to be constructed and commissioned.
Presently, the Tis Abbay II Project Construction works are out for tender and construction is
expected to commence in November 1997.
3.1.3 Small Scale Hydropower Projects The potential for small Scale Hydropower development
are immense and amount to 173 in number. The development of these potentials needs also to be
given special attention and encouraged along with the Medium Scale Hydropower Schemes
especially in the rural areas of the country. Ways and means should, therefore, be sought and
facilitated in harnessing small hydropower resources in Ethiopia even if it is not encompassed
within the top priority lists. These are areas where private participation should be filly supported
and encouraged in developing these untapped resources without any limitations.
3.2 Geothermal Power Potential
Many locations within in Ethiopia’s Rift Valley may provide natural super heated steam may be
obtained through drilling. The potential of this steam for generating thermal power has been
recommended and proved to be attractive.
The geothermal potential of Ethiopia been estimated at about 4000 MW. This is said to be the
highest potential for any country identified so far in Africa. The economic contribution that this
resource might make to the energy economy of Ethiopia is expected to be great but needs to be
studied and looked into in detail in a coordinated manner with other forms of energy.
4. Power Generation of Ethiopia
4.1 On Going Programs and Future Plans
4.1.1 Present Power Generation
Ethiopia has not made significant progress in the field of water resources development during the
past four decades. In particular, the exploitation of hydropower potential was not noticeably
successful.
The total existing installed power capacity (EELPA) is 417.75 MW, of which 377.75 MW is in
hydropower plants and 40 MW in thermal plants (Table 1.1)
About 10% of the electric energy consumed in the entire country are generated by diesel fuel
engines thus draining the meager foreign exchange of Ethiopia.
Table 4 Ongoing and Planned Hydropower Programs
Name of Project Proposed Years of Service Energy (GWh/year) Average Firm Remarks
The annual consumption of electricity in 1995 was 1670 Gwh, equivalent to 30 kwh/capita. The
installed capacity is currently 417.75 MW (377.75 MW + 40MW) of which 90% is provided by
hydropower. The present capacity deficit is estimated to be about 300 MW. This indicates that
power generation needs to grow at an annual rate of about 10% to reach an approximate target of
around 1600 MW by the year 2000, an increase in capacity of some 600 MW, to sustain
economic development and to fulfill the domestic needs of the Ethiopian people. Lists of on-
going and future plan for hydropower development of Ethiopia through 199720 15 are presented
in Table 4.
This program should be taken seriously because it is strongly contended that the country could
face severe shortage of hydroelectric energy for many years to come. To transform this program
into reality all the required supports should be provided to achieve tangible and practical results
The electric power generation capacity (5,430MW) of Churchill Falls in Canada is only 180MW larger than that of Ethiopia’s Millennium Dam.
The idea of building Africa’s largest dam in the village of Guba, located 17km from the Sudanese border, dates back to when Peter was stirring passion among his students about the national dream of utilising the waters of the Abay River.
Almost half a century ago, Emperor Haile Selassie asked a young Pitra Angle (Eng), who is now 77, to study the possibilities of developing the Abay Basin, which is estimated to have the potential to generate a total of 10,000MW of electricity.
“I first came to this area back then,” Angle, who has been at Salini for 50 years, told Fortune last week while showing off the acacia trees in the gorge between Lebiyat and Neqor mountains.
Neither is the company new to Ethiopia. Salini Costuttori first built the Legedadi Dam half a century ago; a photo taken during its inauguration still sits on a desk in the Rome office of Pietro Salini (PhD), the eldest child of the company’s founder who is aged 82.
“It was a different Ethiopia,” said Salini, now managing director of the 75-year old company, following his father’s retirement.
Ethiopia has become more assertive since then. Meles alluded to this in claiming that his administration’s exercise in using Ethiopia’s right to develop its waters “shows no malice to any of our neighbours.”
“Among the concerns we factored in when we made the decision to build the Nile Dam with our own resources was to avoid any negative consequences for our neighbours,” Meles said before he laid the foundation stone alongside the river at a temperature of close to 40 degrees centigrade, while bulldozers were unearthing the hills to his right.
The project has been on the drawing board for some time. The site was first identified as suitable for a mega project back in 1966. The original plan was to generate 2,000MW of power, and used to be known as “the border project” during the time of the Emperor, according to Angle.
The design took him close to seven years to complete, a period he described as “very stressful.”
Estimated to cost close to 4.7 billion dollars, the idea of building a dam with the potential to generate 5,250MW was on the drawing board of the state owned Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo), under a code name of “Project X.” The project was baptised the Millennium Dam only recently, after the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract was signed with Salini in November 2010, with Metal Engineering Co. as the subcontractor for the dam’s electromechanical components.
However, many are critical of the decisions of the government in awarding expensive contracts to Salini without administering competitive international bidding to select the best candidate.
Such were the modus operandi the corporation followed when it awarded Gilgel Gibe II and III, with generation capacities of 420MW and 1,870MW, respectively, as well as Tana Beles Dam with 460MW.
“The results from these projects show compelling evidence on the success of the APC model,” said Meheret Debebe, the longest serving CEO of EEPCo.
The main contractor to build the Millennium Dam is committed to complete the project within seven years. However, the plan is to start generating electricity from three of the 15 turbines as early as September 2014, according to Kifle Horo, one of the project managers assigned to the dam by EEPCo.
If EEPCo management is, for the first time, assigning two of its senior and most experienced engineers to manage one project, it is due to its sheer size, a close observer of the company told Fortune.
Located 700km west of Addis Abeba, the Millennium Dam will have two powerhouses with 10 turbines on the left side of the river bank and an additional five on the other side, each generating 350MW at a time. This is equal to the combined capacity of Tis Abay I and II, Koka, Melka Wakena, as well as Awash I and II dams.
While all nine dams in operation may not possess 35pc of the generation capacity of the new dam, the amount of money it will cost to build the latter is close to double of what it took to build all the others.
The dam will have a height of 145 metres, shorter than Tekeze Dam by 43 metres, while it will stretch 1,800 metres wide. Once completed, the dam is designed to hold 63 billion cubic metres of water, making this manmade lake twice the size of Lake Tana, the source of the river on which the dam is to be built.
“It is the largest dam we could build at any point along the Nile, or any other river,” Meles told those gathered to see him launch the project, including a few of his cabinet ministers and party leaders.
Building a dam of this size and proportion “is evidence of the government’s determination and vision incorporated in the transformation plan,” according to Mehiret.
The determination of the administration overcame more than 50 years of insufficient domestic funding and international lobbies against such plans by countries like Egypt.
“It is still attempting to undercut Ethiopia’s efforts to secure funding to cover the cost of the project,” Meles grumbled last week.
A few months ago, leaders in Egypt wrote letters urging donors and multilateral financial institutions not to provide funding for the project, the Prime Minster alleged.
Not only has this worked to keep these financiers at bay, it also compelled rather generous countries such as China, which recently withdrew its financing from the Chomoga Project, disclosed reliable sources.
Frustrated by these developments, a determined Meles turned to domestic sources for the finance. He embarked upon an ambitious project of persuading the nation to start a new culture of national savings.
“We are so convinced of the justice of our cause, so sure of the strength of our arguments, so convinced of the role of our hydropower projects in eliminating poverty in our country that we will use every ounce of our strength and every dime of money we can save to complete our programme,” Meles told delegates two weeks ago in a speech at a forum held at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa’s (UNECA) compound to discuss the future of dams in the world.
In the administration’s bid to raise close to 11 billion Br from the public, he offered Ethiopians at home and aboard a Millennium Bond; it has a maturity period of five years and a yield of five per cent. The total cost of the project takes up to 11.5pc of the 769.1 billion Br the government is projected to use to finance public infrastructure projects under the GTP.
However, senior officials in the administration see the dam as a crucial component to the success of the plan. The plan to enhance the country’s ability to generate between 8,000MW and 10,000MW of power within the next five years, up from the current nearly 2,000MW, would be unrealistic without the completion of the Millennium Dam.
“This project will play a major and decisive role in realising the GTP and the consequent advance towards the eradication of poverty,” said Meles.
The reaction from the public was overwhelmingly positive.
Almaz Ayelew, 38, is one of the people who are willing to buy these bonds. A mother of two, Almaz works in one of the government offices for a monthly salary of 3,000 Br after paying income tax.
Subsequent to the announcement made by Teklewold Atnafu, governor of National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), two days after the official launch of the dam, Almaz went to the head office of Development Bank of Ethiopia (DBE), on Thursday, April 7, 2011. She bought 3,000 Br worth of bonds instead of the 1,000 Br saving bonds she initially planned to purchase.
“It is not because I have enough money for consumption that I locked my 3,000 Br in the bank for five years,” she told Fortune proudly. “I want to see the dam being completed before I die.”
Almaz is one of the many enthusiasts who connect emotionally to the building of the dam, but not everyone does it for the sake of patriotism.
Sintayehu Lemma, a contractor, is one of the sober people who would like to invest his savings in the bond, but for profit.
“I only bought the bond after calculating my return as a businessman,” he told Fortune. “I am not going to buy anything emotionally like most other people. The government is expecting its citizens to do the impossible, all at once.”
There are others who would like to see the cost benefit analysis of the dam beyond patriotic fervour. Coupled with security concerns due to how close the dam would be from the border to Sudan, the suitability of the selected site is questioned by some local engineers.
The gorge in Aleltu, located not far from Addis Abeba, has a diving slope of 1,000 metres, which would give water a lot more momentum than the elevation in Guba, according to an experienced engineer.
The cost of the project is also a subject of worry to some. The Millennium Dam will be a very expensive dam to build when measured in the amount invested for every megawatt it will generate. The 14.85 million Br it will consume per megawatt is cheaper only by half a million Birr, compared to Tana Beles, the most expensive of all dams in the country.
Economic pundits are alarmed by the prospect of inflation due to the financing of mega projects such as the dam, which could exacerbate the already stressful situation.
Domestic revenues, including grants, are projected to reach at 615.6 billion Br, while public expenditure is expected to reach up to 769.1 billion Br during the lifetime of the GTP. The difference is expected to be filled by local and international loans.
If the government fails to obtain foreign aid, it might resort into printing money as an alternative, macroeconomic pundits worry.
Known in the West as quantitative easing, printing money is inflationary, according to an economic analyst.
There could also be supply-side constraints as a result. The Millennium Dam project will consume an estimated 10 million tonnes of cement before its completion.
The construction sector will thus be affected as essential raw materials, like cement, will be consumed by the dam, the economic analyst argued.
However, people like Almaz are optimistic about the dam.
“The total cost is expensive, but if all Ethiopians save by limiting their needs, I hope it would be manageable,’’ she told Fortune.
To his delight, such is the public mood Meles wanted to garner to see his dreams come true.
“It is a monument we want to build in recognition of Ethiopia’s move to herald a new beginning,” Meles said last week.
Chapter Three
2.1 Background
On 31 March 2011, a day after the project was made public, a US$4.8 billion contract was
awarded without competitive bidding to Salini Construction and the dam's foundation stone was
laid on 2 April 2011 by Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. A rock crushing plant has been
constructed along with a small air strip for fast transportation. Construction is expected to last 44
months when two generators would be operational. Egypt, which lies downstream, opposes the
dam which it believes will reduce the amount of water that it gets from the Nile. Zenawi argues,
based on an unnamed study, that the dam would not reduce water availability downstream and
would also regulate water for irrigation.
2.2 Design of the project
The dam will be a 145 m (476 ft) tall; 1,800 m (5,906 ft) long gravity-type composed of roller-
compacted concrete and will have two power houses, each on either side of the spillway. The
right power house will contain ten 350 MW Francis turbine-generators while the left will contain
five. Supporting the dam and reservoir will be a 5 km (3 mi) long and 50 m (164 ft) high saddle
dam.[3] The dam's reservoir will have a volume of 63,000,000,000 m3 (51,074,931 acre·ft).[4]
2.3 Cost and financing
The Ethiopian government has stated that it intends to fund the entire cost of the dam by itself. It
has issued a bond targeted at Ethiopians in the country and abroad to that end.[6] The turbines and
associated electrical equipment of the hydropower plants costing about US$1.8 billion are
reportedly financed by Chinese banks. This would leave US$3 billion to be financed by the
Ethiopian government through other means.[8] The estimated US$4.8 billion construction cost,
apparently excluding the cost of power transmission lines, corresponds to more than 15% of
Ethiopia’s Gross Domestic Product of US$31 billion in 2009.
Benefits
.
A major benefit of the dam will be hydropower production. The electricity to be produced by the
hydropower plant is to be sold in Ethiopia and to neighboring countries including Sudan and
possibly Egypt. Selling the electricity from the dam would require the construction of massive
transmission lines to major consumption centers such as Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa and
Sudan’s capital Khartoum, both located more than 400km away from the dam. These sales would
come on top of electricity that is expected to be sold from other large hydropower plants that are
under construction in Ethiopia, such as Gilgel Gibe III
Environmental and social impacts
No environmental and social impact assessment for the dam has been published so far. It is not
clear if one has been undertaken or is underway. This makes it difficult to quantify the positive
and negative impacts of the dam. However, a qualitative assessment of the positive and negative
social and environmental impacts of the dam is attempted below. Public consultation about dams
in Ethiopia is affected by the political climate in the country. The NGO International Rivers
reports that “conversations with civil society groups in Ethiopia indicate that questioning the
government’s energy sector plans is highly risky, and there are legitimate concerns of
government persecution. Because of this political climate, no groups are actively pursuing the
issues surrounding hydropower dams, nor publicly raising concerns about the risks. In this
situation, extremely limited and inadequate public consultation has been organized” during the
implementation of major dams.
Impact on Ethiopia
Since the Blue Nile is a highly seasonal river, the dam would reduce flooding downstream of the
dam, including on the 40km stretch within Ethiopia. On the one hand, the reduction of flooding
is beneficial since it protects settlements from flood damage. On the other hand, it can be
harmful, if flood recession agriculture is practiced in the river valley downstream of the dam
since it deprives fields from being watered. The dam could also serve as a bridge across the Blue
Nile, complementing a bridge that was under construction in 2009 further upstream. [10] The dam
will affect the livelihoods of people living in the area upstream of the dam that will be flooded by
the reservoir. The Benishangul-Gumuz Region is not densely settled, with only 12 inhabitants
per square kilometer on average, including many nomads.[11]
Impact on Sudan and Egypt
The reservoir volume is about equivalent to the annual flow of the Nile at the Sudanese-Egyptian
border (65.5 billion cubic meter). This loss to downstream countries would occur only once and
would be most likely be spread over several years while the reservoir fills. However, it will still
affect downstream countries in a way that is not negligible. Evaporative losses from the dam’s
reservoir will permanently reduce the flow of the Blue Nile. The magnitude of these losses is not
known. Ethiopian sources point out that both the area of the reservoir and the evaporation rate
will be smaller than for Lake Nasser in Egypt. Ethiopia's Minister of Water and Energy,
Alemayehu Tegenu, claims that by storing more water in the reservoir of the Millennium Dam
and less water in Lake Nasser, "more than 7.5 billion cubic meters of water could be saved from
evaporation".[6] At the same time the hydropower plant would be able to produce more than twice
as much electricity as the Aswan High Dam (5,250 MW vs. 2,100 MW). The dam would retain
silt. It would thus increase the useful lifetime of dams in Sudan – such as the Roseires Dam, the
Sennar Dam and the Merowe Dam – and of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. The beneficial and
harmful effects of flood control would affect the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile, just as it
would affect the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile valley downstream of the dam.[12] Nevertheless,
Sudan Egypt have serious concerns about the project; Egypt has requested that it be allowed to
inspect the dam, in order to allay its fears, but Ethiopia has denied the request unless Egypt
relinquishes its veto on water allocation.[13]
There is no international treaty for the sharing of the waters of the Blue Nile between Ethiopia on
the one hand and Sudan and Egypt on the other hand. A 1959 Nile treaty between Egypt and
Sudan does not include Ethiopia. A Nile treaty signed by the upper riparian states in 2010, the
Cooperative Framework Agreement, has not been signed by either Egypt or Sudan. [14] The Nile
Basin Initiative provides a framework for dialogue among all Nile riparian countries.
Chapter Three
References
1. ^ "Ethiopia’s biggest dam to help neighbours solve power problem". News One. 17 April
ethiopia/574-ethiopia-lays-foundation-for-africas-biggest-dam.html. Retrieved 19 April
2011.
3. ^ a b "Salini will build the biggest dam in Africa". Salini Construttori. 31 March 2011.
http://www.salini.it/index.php/english/content/show_news/77. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
4. ^ a b "Ethiopia Launched Grand Millennium Dam Project, the Biggest in Africa".
Ethiopian News. 2 April 2011. http://www.ethiopian-news.com/ethiopia-launched-grand-
millennium-dam-project-the-biggest-in-africa/. Retrieved 17 April 2011.
References
1. Tekeze Medium Scale Hydropower Development. Reconnaissance Study, August 1995. 2. Gojeb Medium Scale Hydropower Development. Reconnaissance Study, August 1995. 3. Tekeze River Basin Integrated Development. Master Plan Project, Main Report, October 1995. 4. Medium Scale Hydropower Development Program, January 1995. 5. Ethiopia, Issues and Option in the Energy Sector, March, 1984. 6. Water Resources Development Master Plan for Ethiopia, WAPCOS, 1995.
The article appears in the publication of the EACE (Ethiopian Association of Civil Engineers) who owns the copyright. All due acknowledgements and copyright belong to EACE (POBox 20930, Code 1000, Addis Ababa)
5. ^ Belete, Pawlos. "Great Millennium Dam moves Ethiopia". Capital Ethiopia.
