The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

7/30/2019 The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

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AINL Skrjlmc Wapdr Pdrlds

Yhd Oliifd/Lm`kod Yrap5 Lssuds bkrOdondrs kb thd Assk`latlkm kbPkuthdast Aslam Matlkms

Yram Ram Yhk

Mk- 9>1Oay >710

Aslam Idvdfkpodmt Namj Lmstltutd


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Yhd Skrjlmc Wapdr sdrlds ls a `kmtlmuatlkm kb thd bkrodrfy maodi Ilsùsslkm Wapdr sdrlds: thdmuondrlmc kb thd papdrs `kmtlmudi wlthkut lmtdrruptlkm kr `hamcd- AINLs wkrjlmc papdrsrdbfd`t lmltlaf lidas km a tkpl` ami ard pkstdi kmflmd bkr ilsùsslkm- AINL dm`kuracds rdaidrs tkpkst thdlr `koodmts km thd oalm pacd bkr da`h wkrjlmc papdr (clvdm lm thd `ltatlkm ndfkw,-Pkod wkrjlmc papdrs oay idvdfkp lmtk kthdr bkros kb punflàtlkm-

Puccdstdi `ltatlkm5

Yram& R-Y- >710- Yhd Oliifd/Lm`kod Yrap5 Lssuds bkr Odondrs kb thdAssk`latlkm kb PkuthdastAslam Matlkms- AINL Skrjlmc Wapdr 9>1- Ykjyk5 Aslam Idvdfkpodmt Namj Lmstltutd- Avalfanfd5

http5++www-ainl-krc+wkrjlmc/papdr+>710+74+12+4223-oliifd-lm`kod-trap-lssuds-asdam+

Wfdasd `kmta`t thd authkr bkr lmbkroatlkm ankut thls papdr-

Doalf5 tvttramGwasdia-ep: tvttram71Gcoalf-`ko

Yram Ram Yhk ls prkbdsskr kb d`kmkol`s& Craiuatd P`hkkf kb Pk`laf P`ldm`ds& SasdiaTmlvdrslty& Ykjyk-

Wapdr prdpardi bkr thd rdsdar`h prked`t APDAM >7075 Crkwlmc Ykcdthdr bkr PhardiWrkspdrlty& `kmiu`tdi ny thd Aslam Idvdfkpodmt Namj Lmstltutd (AINL,- Yhd lmtdrlordpkrt was prdsdmtdi at thd wkrjshkp lm Juafa Fuopur lm Eumd >711- @koodmts brko@ldfltk Hanltk (Atdmdk id Oamlfa Tmlvdrslty,& @hafkmcphkn Pussamcjao (YhalfamiIdvdfkpodmt ^dsdar`h Lmstltutd,& Clkvamml @apammdffl (AINL,& ami kthdr partl`lpamts atthd wkrjshkp ard a`jmkwfdicdi- Yhamjs ard afsk dxtdmidi tk Iavli Iapl`d& HarvariTmlvdrslty& bkr usdbuf `koodmts km am darfldr irabt& ami tk Phumel Jarljkol& WhI stuidmtat thd Craiuatd P`hkkf kb Pk`laf P`ldm`ds& Sasdia Tmlvdrslty& bkr hls `kkpdratlkm lm thdprdparatlkm kb statlstlàf tanfds ami blcurds-

Yhd vldws dxprdssdi lm thls papdr ard thd vldws kb thd authkr ami ik mkt md`dssarlfyrdbfd`t thd vldws kr pkfl`lds kb AINL& thd AIN& lts Nkari kb Ilrd`tkrs& kr thd ckvdrmodmtsthdy rdprdsdmt- AINL ikds mkt cuaramtdd thd a`ùra`y kb thd iata lm`fuidi lm thls papdrami a``dpts mk rdspkmslnlflty bkr amy `kmsdqudm`ds kb thdlr usd- Ydrolmkfkcy usdi oaymkt md`dssarlfy nd `kmslstdmt wlth AIN kbbl`laf tdros-

Aslam Idvdfkpodmt Namj LmstltutdJasuolcasdjl Nulfilmc 8B0/>/4 Jasuolcasdjl& @hlykia/juYkjyk 177/2778& Eapam

Ydf5 *81/0/04


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AINL Skrjlmc Wapdr 9>1 Yram

Anstra`t

Yhd prknfdo ba`di ny oamy kb thd d`kmkolds oajlmc up thd Assk`latlkm kb Pkuthdast AslamMatlkms (APDAM, ls whdthdr thdy àm avkli thd oliifd/lm`kod trap ami aivam`d tk thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf- Shat ls mddidi bkr thdo tk avkli thd oliifd/lm`kod trap; Yhls papdr attdopts tk

amswdr thls qudstlkm ny nulfilmc am amafytlàf braodwkrj nasdi km thd ba`tkrs that idtdrolmdda`h idvdfkpodmt stacd kb am d`kmkoy& ami ny `koparlmc thd ùrrdmt sltuatlkm kb bkur APDAMoliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds wlth thd dxpdrldm`d kb thd ^dpunfl` kb Jkrda& a `kumtry that oamacditk kvdr`kod thd oliifd/lm`kod trap ami rda`h thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf lm thd fatd 1


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@kmtdmts

1- Lmtrkiu`tlkm --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0>- Yhd Amafytlàf Braodwkrj ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 00- @urrdmt Idvdfkpodmt Ptacd kb APDAM D`kmkolds -------------------------------------------------------- Lmtdrmatlkmaf @kopdtltlvdmdss ami Iymaol` @koparatlvd Aivamtacd ----------------139-0 Yhd Lmstltutlkmaf Ba`tkr --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->9

4- Yhd @asd kb Rldt Mao5 Yhd Wksslnlflty kb am Darfy Appdaram`d kb thd Oliifd/Lm`kodYrap; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->3

2- @km`fuilmc ^doarjs ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->1 Yram

0

1- Lmtrkiu`tlkm

Yhd wkrfi d`kmkoy tkiay àm nd ilvlidi lmtk bkur crkups5 crkup 1 `koprlsds fkw/lm`kod`kumtrlds whl`h ard stlff dm`kumtdrlmc thd pkvdrty trap- Crkup > ls thd `kumtrlds whl`h rda`hdioliifd/lm`kod fdvdf oamy ydars ack (okrd tham 47 ydars bkr oamy àsds, nut havddxpdrldm`di fkw kr mk crkwth slm`d thdm- Oamy Fatlm Aodrlàm `kumtrlds ndfkmc tk thls crkup-Crkup 0 `kmslsts kb thd `kumtrlds whl`h havd rd`dmtfy rda`hdi kr ard apprka`hlmc thd oliifd/lm`kod fdvdf- Pdvdraf Assk`latlkm kb Pkuthdast Aslam Matlkms (APDAM, d`kmkolds ami thdWdkpfd#s ^dpunfl` kb @hlma (W^@, ard lm`fuidi lm thls crkup- Crkup 9 ls `kopksdi kb hlch/lm`kod `kumtrlds su`h as odondrs kb thd Krcamlsatlkm bkr D`kmkol` @k/kpdratlkm amiIdvdfkpodmt (KD@I, ami sdvdraf kthdrs- Yhd `kumtrlds lm crkup > àm nd rdbdrrdi tk as kfioliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds: thksd lm crkup 0 àm nd àffdi mdw oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds-

Yhd phdmkodmkm that crkup > `kumtrlds stacmatd abtdr rda`hlmc thd oliifd/lm`kod fdvdf oaynd ids`rlndi as thd oliifd/lm`kod trap (Clff ami Jharas >773: Ppdm`d >711,- Yhd lssud ba`diny APDAM ami kthdr mdw oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds ls whdthdr thdy àm avkli thd oliifd/lm`kod

trap ami aivam`d tk thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf- Shat ard thd `kmiltlkms mddidi bkr APDAM`kumtrlds tk avkli su`h a trap; Yhls papdr attdopts tk kbbdr am amswdr tk thls qudstlkm-

Yhd rdoalmidr kb thd papdr ls krcamlzdi as bkffkws5 sd`tlkm > prkvlids thd amafytlàf braodwkrjwhl`h lm`krpkratds idvdfkpodmt stacd& lmstltutlkms& turmlmc pklmts lm thd fankr oarjdt& lmput/irlvdm crkwth ami tktaf ba`tkr prkiu`tlvlty crkwth& ami iymaol` `koparatlvd aivamtacd- Pd`tlkm0 ilsùssds thd ùrrdmt idvdfkpodmt stacd kb APDAM ami kthdr Dast Aslam `kumtrlds- Nasdi kmthd amafytlàf braodwkrj& sd`tlkm 9 amafyzds thd ùrrdmt lssuds kb APDAM oliifd/lm`kod`kumtrlds lm flcht kb thd dxpdrldm`d kb thd ^dpunfl` kb Jkrda (hdm`dbkrth Jkrda,& a typlàfdxaopfd kb a `kumtry that has su``dssbuffy avklidi thd oliifd/lm`kod trap ami has okvdi kmtk nd`kod a hlch/lm`kod d`kmkoy- Pd`tlkm 4 fkkjs at thd àsd kb Rldt Mao& a `kumtry that hascrkwm kut kb thd pkvdrty trap ami rda`hdi a fkw oliifd/lm`kod fdvdf nut ls mkw dm`kumtdrlmcoa`rkd`kmkol` lmstanlflty ami stru`turaf ilbblùftlds whl`h appdar tk prdvdmt burthdr sustalmdi

crkwth- Slthkut irastl` rdbkros& Rldt Mao oay prkvlid a àsd kb am darfy appdaram`d kb aoliifd/lm`kod trap- Blmaffy& thd `km`fuilmc sd`tlkm suooarlzds thd lssuds ùrrdmtfy ba`lmc

APDAM `kumtrlds ami kbbdrs pkfl`y rd`koodmiatlkms bkr thksd `kumtrlds tk su``dssbuffyaivam`d tk nd`kod hlch/lm`kod d`kmkolds-

>- Yhd Amafytlàf Braodwkrj

Kur nasl` `km`dptuaf braodwkrj ndclms wlth thrdd oaekr idvdfkpodmt stacds kb am d`kmkoy&as shkwm lm Blcurd 1- N lm thd blcurd `krrdspkmis tk crkup 1& D `krrdspkmis tk crkup >& @ tkcrkup 0& ami I tk crkup 9: @ shkws thd oliifd/lm`kod stacd- Bkr a `kumtry startlmc wlth a pdràplta ammuaf lm`kod )477& lb thd avdracd ammuaf crkwth ratd kb pdr àplta lm`kod ls 3$ (thdlm`kod ikunfds lm 17 ydars,& lm`kods oust ikunfd bkur tlods (97 ydars, tk rda`h thd uppdr/oliifd lm`kod fdvdf (ankut )8&777,- Lb thd crkwth ratd ls 4$ (thd lm`kod ikunfds lm 1914ydars,& lt tajds mdarfy 27 ydars tk rda`h thd uppdr/oliifd lm`kod fdvdf-1

1Yhls dxdr`lsd ls aiaptdi brko Ppdm`d (>7115 17,-

Yhus& thd tramsltlkmbrko a pkkr tk a oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry rdqulrds sustalmdi pdrlkis kb crkwth- Hkwdvdr& brko amuppdr/oliifd lm`kod fdvdf& thd `kumtry mddis kmfy 14 ydars tk rda`h thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf lb thd


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9

avdracd ammuaf crkwth ratd ls 4$- Yhls ls a shkrt pdrlki- Nut& as Ppdm`d (>7115 >7, mktdi& thdikunflmc brko oliifd tk hlch lm`kod fkkjs dasldr tham lt ls& nut lt has prkvdm bkr oamy`kumtrlds tk nd a ilbblùft passacd- Yhls ilbblùfty ls rdbdrrdi tk as thd oliifd/lm`kod trap-

Yk umidrstami thd maturd kb thd oliifd/lm`kod trap& wd havd tk `hara`tdrlzd thd turmlmc pklmt @lm Blcurd 1- Yhd path brko N tk @ ls a fkmc prk`dss that tramsbkros thd `kumtry brko am

acrlùfturaf tk am lmiustrlaf d`kmkoy& wlth lm`rdaslmc shards kb thd oamuba`turlmc ami sdrvl`dssd`tkrs lm tktaf kutput ami dopfkyodmt- Lm thls prk`dss& thd d`kmkoy dxpdrldm`ds oamyaspd`ts kb stru`turaf `hamcd& lm`fuilmc ba`tkr oarjdts& td`hmkfkclàf fdvdfs& ami `koparatlvdaivamtacd- Shdm thd d`kmkoy rda`hds @thd oliifd/lm`kod stacdthksd `hamcds nd`kodoaekr `haffdmcds whl`h thd `kumtry oust kvdr`kod bkr su``dssbuf tramsltlkm tk thd hlch/lm`kodfdvdf-

Blcurd 15 Idvdfkpodmt Ptacds kb am D`kmkoy

AN5 Yrailtlkmaf sk`ldty& umidridvdfkpodmt& ba`lmc pkvdrty trap-

N@5 Lmltlaf idvdfkpodmt stacd& dsàpd brko pkvdrty trap& lmltlaf idvdfkpodmt kb oarjdts-

@5 Oliifd/lm`kod fdvdf-

@I5 @kmtlmulmc sustalmdi crkwth tk hlch/lm`kod fdvdf (I,-

@D5 Ptacmatlkm kr fkw crkwththd oliifd/lm`kod trap-

Mktd5 CIW ? Crkss Ikodstl` Wrkiu`t-

Pkur`d5 Authkr-

NA

@

I

CIW pdr

àplta

D

Ylod


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4

Fdt us dfankratd km thdsd pklmts- Blrst& lm thd ba`tkr oarjdts& rdaf wacds rlsd afkmc wlth thd shlbtkb thd d`kmkoy brko fankr surpfus tk fankr shkrtacd& thd .turmlmc pklmt. lm thd Fdwls (1 Brko thls pklmt& fankroust nd okrd prkiu`tlvd tk oat`h thd rlsd lm wacds- Afsk brko thls pklmt& thd quaflty kb fankr

oust nd upcraidi tk dmanfd thd tramsbkroatlkm kb thd lmiustrlaf stru`turd brko ndlmc fdss sjlff/lmtdmslvd tk ndlmc hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd- Dbbkrt ny thd ckvdrmodmt ls thus rdqulrdi tk pfa`d okrddophasls km a hlchdr fdvdf ami hlchdr quaflty kb diuàtlkm tk suppfy a quaflbldi fankr bkr`d bkrthd tramsltlkm tk thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf-0

Pd`kmi& thd darfldr stacd kb idvdfkpodmt (N@ lm Blcurd 1, àm afsk nd `hara`tdrlzdi as ndlmclmput/irlvdm (lmtdmslvd usd kb fankr ami àpltaf,- Lm thls stacd& su`h a crkwth pattdrm àm nd

eustlbldi slm`d fankr ls anumiamt (umfloltdi suppfy,- @apltaf ls rdfatlvdfy sàr`d nut thd mddi bkrlt lm lmltlaf lmvdstodmt lm lmbrastru`turd ami lm lmiustrlaf prkiu`tlkm has lm`rdaslmcfy dxpamidi&whlfd td`hmkfkcy rdoalms umidridvdfkpdi- Hkwdvdr& bkr sustalmdi crkwth tkwari thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf& thd `kumtry oust nd lm`rdaslmcfy dmikwdi wlth hlchfy td`hmkfkclàf amioamacdrlaf rdskur`ds& ami àpltaf oust nd dbbl`ldmtfy utlflzdi- Lm kthdr wkris& thd crkwth kb thd

d`kmkoy shkufi nd lm`rdaslmcfy attrlnutdi tk tktaf ba`tkr prkiu`tlvlty (YBW,-

9

Yhlri& afkmc wlth thd àt`hlmc up ny fatdr `kodrs tk lmiustrlaflzatlkm& ami as wacds rlsd& oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds ard lm`rdaslmcfy fkslmc thdlr `koparatlvd aivamtacd lm fankr/lmtdmslvdlmiustrlds- Dvdmtuaffy thdsd lmiustrlds wlff baid away- Burthdr crkwth kb oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrldsoust thdrdbkrd lm`rdaslmcfy rdfy km hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd lmiustrlds ami a iddpdr stk`j kb physlàfami huoam àpltaf- Oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds ard squddzdi ndtwddm fkw/wacd& fkw/lm`kod`kopdtltkr `kumtrlds that ikolmatd fankr/lmtdmslvd oaturd lmiustrlds ami thd hlch/lm`kod`kumtry lmmkvatkrs that ikolmatd lmiustrlds umidrcklmc rapli td`hmkfkclàf `hamcd- Lm kthdrwkris& oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds oust su``dssbuffy `flon thd idvdfkpodmt faiidr ami àt`h upwlth aivam`di `kumtrlds lm thd tramsltlkm tk thd hlch/lm`kod fdvdf- Yhat afsk odams that thd`koparatlvd aivamtacd stru`turd kb thd `kumtry oust `hamcd kvdr tlod- Pu`h iymaol`

`koparatlvd aivamtacd ls dmanfdi kmfy ny `hamcds lm ba`tkr dmikwodmts& whl`h ardlm`rdaslmcfy `hara`tdrlzdi ny rdfatlvd anumiam`d kb huoam àpltaf ami lm`rdaslmc avalfanlflty kbtd`hmkfkclàf ami oamacdrlaf rdskur`ds-

Yhus& thd turmlmcpklmt ndtwddm lmput/irlvdm crkwth ami YBW/nasdi crkwth oay apprkxloatdfy `klm`lid wlth @-

Aokmc thdsd thrdd lssuds& thd blrst twkthd turmlmc pklmt lm thd fankr oarjdt ami lm thd crkwthpattdrmard md`dssary `kmiltlkms bkr oalmtalmlmc thd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss kb thd

>Yhls pklmt àm nd `kmblrodi ny thd dxpdrldm`d kb Eapam ami Jkrda- Lm thd àsd kb Eapam& bkr dxaopfd& thd turmlmc

pklmt appdardi lm thd darfy 1


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2

d`kmkoy (thd thlri lssud,& slm`d lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss at thls stacd has tk rdfylm`rdaslmcfy km hlch quaflty kb fankr ami km td`hmkfkclàf loprkvdodmt bkr hlchdr dbbl`ldm`y-

Lm am kpdm d`kmkoy& partlùfarfy lm thd acd kb cfknaflzatlkm ami rdclkmaf brdd traid acrddodmts&loprkvdodmt kb lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss kvdr tlod ls dssdmtlaf bkr sustalmdi crkwth- Yhls lsrdbfd`tdi lm thd iymaol` `hamcds lm thd dxpkrt stru`turd tkwari hlchdr sjlff ami okrd lmmkvatlkm/

lmtdmslvd `kmtdmts kb prkiu`ts- Yhls pklmt àm nd lffustratdi ny thd `hamcds kvdr tlod lm thd`koparatlvd aivamtacd kb a sustalmdi crkwlmc d`kmkoy: lt ls rdbfd`tdi lm thd `hamcds lm thdlmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx kb lmiustrlds-

Yhd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx (l, àm nd idblmdi as

l ? (X O, + (X * O,

whdrdXls thd dxpkrt vafud kb a prkiu`t ami Ols thd lopkrt vafud-

Sd àm knsdrvd thd idvdfkpodmt prk`dss kb am lmiustry ny dxaolmlmc thd `hamcds lm ltslmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx- Yhd typlàf trdmi kb that lmidx àm nd tra`di lm Blcurd >- Lmthd darfy stacd kb idvdfkpodmt kb am lmiustry thdrd ls afokst mk dxpkrt ami thd ikodstl` oarjdtls suppfldi oalmfy ny lopkrts& sk that thd lmidx ls 1- Slth lm`rdaslmc lopkrt sunstltutlkm& thdlmidx apprka`hds zdrk& thd pklmt whdrd thdrd ard mk okrd lopkrts nut dxpkrts havd ydt tk start-Yhd lmidx afsk rda`hds zdrk whdm dxpkrts ami lopkrts ard afokst dquaf- Lb thd lmtdrmatlkmaf`kopdtltlvdmdss kb thd lmiustry ls burthdr strdmcthdmdi& dxpkrts wlff `kmtlmukusfy dxpami ami thdlmidx apprka`hds 1 whdm thdrd ard afokst mk okrd lopkrts- Kb `kursd& whdrd thdrd ls lmtra/lmiustry traid& thd lmidx ls `fksd tk zdrk-

Pustalmdi crkwth rdqulrds thd su``dssbuf shlbt kb thd `koparatlvd aivamtacd brko a oaturdlmiustry (lmiustry 1, tk a mdw lmiustry that ls okrd sjlff/lmtdmslvd (lmiustry >,& ami prdpards`kmiltlkms tk okvd tk a mdwdr lmiustry (lmiustry 0,- Yhd prk`dss `kmtlmuds tk lmiustrlds 9& 4&ami sk km& whl`h ard lm`rdaslmcfy lmmkvatlvd ami hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd- Lb thd `kumtry balfs tk`kmtlmud that prk`dss& lmiustry > fksds lts `koparatlvd aivamtacd darfldr tham amtl`lpatdi(shkwm ny thd ikttdi flmd lm Blcurd >, iud tk rapli `hamcds lm lmtdrmatlkmaf oarjdts& ami thd`kumtry ls mkt anfd tk cdmdratd a mdwdr lmiustry (lmiustry 0,- Yhus& thd oliifd/lm`kod trap

appdars whdm a oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry balfs tk sustalm crkwth thrkuch thd cdmdratlkm kb mdw`koparatlvd aivamtacd kvdr tlod-


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3

Blcurd >5 Wattdrm kb Lmtdrmatlkmaf @kopdtltlvdmdss kb

a Pustalmdi Crkwth D`kmkoy

Mktd5 L@L ? Lmtdrmatlkmaf @kopdtltlvdmdss Lmidx-

Pkur`d5 Authkr-

Shat ard thd `kmiltlkms bkr thd iymaol` tramsbkroatlkm kb `koparatlvd aivamtacd tk avkli su`h

a oliifd/lm`kod trap; Ywk ardas sddo lopkrtamt- Kmd ls thd tlodfy shlbt kb bkùs kb pkfl`y amipunfl` sd`tkr lmvdstodmt lm lmbrastru`turd ami huoam àpltaf sk as tk idvdfkp mdw td`hmkfkcy/ami jmkwfdicd/lmtdmslvd lmiustrlds- Yhd sd`kmi arda ls hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms that cdmdratdami oalmtalm a iymaol` prlvatd sd`tkr whl`h ls lmmkvatlvd ami sdmsltlvd tk `hamcds lmlmtdrmatlkmaf oarjdts- Fdt us dfankratd km thdsd twk ardas-

Km thd shlbt kb pkfl`y& prkoktlkm kb hlchdr diuàtlkm& appfldi rdsdar`h& ami idvdfkpodmt kbhlch/quaflty lmbrastru`turd shkufi nd dophaslzdi tk okvd thd d`kmkoy tkwari thd hlch/lm`kodfdvdf& whl`h ls `hara`tdrlzdi ny hlch sjlff ami jmkwfdicd lmtdmslty- Kmd dxaopfd kb hlch/quafltylmbrastru`turd ls tdfd`kooumlàtlkms& whl`h ls partlùfarfy lopkrtamt bkr a jmkwfdicd d`kmkoy-

As rdoarjdi ny thd Skrfi Namj&

Ydfd`kooumlàtlkms pfays a varldty kb `ru`laf rkfds lm thd punfl` ami prlvatd sd`tkr- Lt

àm ali diuàtlkm& tramspardm`y lmltlatlvds& ami thd idflvdry kb ckvdrmodmtsdrvl`dsYdfd`kooumlàtlkms prkoktds wlidsprdai a``dss tk blmam`laf sdrvl`ds- Lt afskdmanfds traid lm sdrvl`ds (a raplify crkwlmc arda kb `koodr`d, ami flmjs tk cfknafsuppfy `halm- (Skrfi Namj >7785 02,

Aokmc oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds& thdrd ard sdvdraf àsds whl`h rdqulrd spd`laf attdmtlkm- Lm ardskur`d/rl`h oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry& bkr dxaopfd& thdrd ard pkwdrbuf vdstdi lmtdrdsts thatprdvdmt thd shlbt kb pkfl`lds ami thdrd ls fa`j kb oktlvd bkr mdw idvdfkpodmt stratdclds- Yhlsphdmkodmkm ls usuaffy rdbdrrdi tk as thd rdskur`d ùrsd (@kxhdai >773& aokmc kthdrs,- Lm


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8

thls àsd& thd `kumtry mddis strkmc fdaidrshlp whl`h ls idvdfkpodmt/krldmtdi ami pkwdrbufdmkuch tk prdpard thd d`kmkoy tk okvd tk thd mdw ilrd`tlkm- Amkthdr dxaopfd ls that kb bkrodrsk`laflst `kumtrlds lm thd prk`dss kb tramsltlkm tk oarjdt d`kmkolds: hdrd thd `kmtlmudiprktd`tlkm kb statd/kwmdi dmtdrprlsds ami kthdr vdstdi lmtdrdsts ls kmd kb thd oaekrlopdilodmts tk okrd dbbl`ldmt crkwth- Irastl` rdbkros ard thus md`dssary- Yhd àsd kb RldtMao wlff nd dxaolmdi lm sd`tlkm 4-

Yhd sd`kmi arda bkr iymaol` tramsbkroatlkm kb `koparatlvd aivamtacd ls km thd nulfilmc kbhlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms- Lm thd darfldr stacds kb idvdfkpodmt& skphlstlàtdi lmstltutlkms ard mktmd`dssary ami thd àpa`lty bkr nulfilmc su`h lmstltutlkms ls afsk mkt avalfanfd- Clvdm thd ba`tkrdmikwodmt (acrlùfturaf rdskur`ds& fankr anumiam`d,& thd ilrd`tlkm kb idvdfkpodmt has nddmqultd `fdar sk that pkfl`y bkroatlkm has nddm slopfd- Ckvdrmodmt lmtdrvdmtlkm& lm`fuilmcdstanflshodmt kb statd/kwmdi dmtdrprlsds& has nddm md`dssary ami eustlblanfd- Pu`h `ruidlmstltutlkms ard mkt lmapprkprlatd at thd lmput/irlvdm crkwth stacd-

Bkr sustalmdi crkwth tkwari hlch/lm`kod fdvdfs& hkwdvdr& thd `kumtry mddis a ilbbdrdmt sdt kblmstltutlkms whl`h ard skphlstlàtdi ami kb hlch quaflty- Yhd `kmtdmts kb .hlch/quafltylmstltutlkms&. a tdro `klmdi ny ^kirlj (>773,& lm`fuid ckki ckvdrmam`d: `krpkratd ckvdrmam`d:wlid partl`lpatlkm kb varlkus stajdhkfidrs lm thd pkfl`y id`lslkm prk`dss: dbbd`tlvd `kkpdratlkm

aokmc aàidol`s& nuslmdssds& ami ckvdrmodmt lm thd bkroatlkm kb stratdcy bkr strdmcthdmlmclmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss: dbbl`ldmt ami tramspardmt rdfatlkmshlp ndtwddm ckvdrmodmt aminuslmdssds: ami lm`rdaslmc lmvdstodmt lm rdsdar`h ami idvdfkpodmt (^"I,- Bkr nulfilmc hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms& thd `kumtry mddis quaflbldi nurdau`rats& dbbl`ldmt ckvdrmodmt& ami a strkmcprlvatd sd`tkr (^kirlj >773,- Hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms ard afsk md`dssary bkr (l, loprkvdodmt kbhuoam àpltaf kvdr tlod& whl`h dmanfds thd upcraid kb lmiustrlaf stru`turd tkwari sjlff/lmtdmslvdmdss: ami (ll, strdmcthdmlmc kvdr tlod kb thd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss kb thd prlvatdsd`tkr-

As dophaslzdi ny thd Skrfi Namj (>778,& whdm thd d`kmkoy ls bar ndhlmi thd fdailmcd`kmkolds& l-d-& lm thd N@ stacd kb Blcurd 1& lt ls vdry `fdar what has tk happdm& nut as thdd`kmkoy àt`hds up wlth thd fdaidrs& lt nd`kods fdss knvlkus what shkufi happdm ami whdrdprkspdrlty flds- Yhat ls why okrd oust nd fdbt tk thd id`lslkms kb prlvatd lmvdstkrs- Hkwdvdr& asarcudi `kmvlm`lmcfy ny Khmk (>717,& dvdm lm thd acd kb cfknaflzatlkm whl`h dophaslzds thdoarjdt od`hamlso& thd rkfd kb ckvdrmodmt ls stlff vdry lopkrtamt lm `kmiu`tlmc a prka`tlvdlmiustrlaf pkfl`y whl`h ba`lfltatds thd iymaolso kb thd prlvatd sd`tkr ny prkvlilmc quaflbldihuoam rdskur`ds& lm`dmtlvds bkr ^"I lmvdstodmt& ami apprkprlatd lmbrastru`turd- Lm thls `kmtdxt&hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms ard dssdmtlaf bkr prkoktlmc dmtrdprdmdurshlp ami fkwdrlmc thd nuslmdss`ksts kb thd prlvatd sd`tkr-

Pk bar& wd havd ilsùssdi thd turmlmc pklmts rdfatdi tk thd pksslnfd trap ilvlilmc thd oliifd/lm`kod ami hlch/lm`kod fdvdfs- Yhdsd turmlmc pklmts àm nd symthdslzdi lmtk thrdd ba`tkrs5

(l, Dbbkrt kb thd oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry tk strdmcthdm ^"I a`tlvltlds ami quaflty kb huoamrdskur`ds- Yhls ba`tkr ls dssdmtlaf bkr ba`lfltatlmc thd tramsltlkm brko a fankr/surpfus tk a fankr/shkrtacd d`kmkoy& thd tramsltlkm brko lmput/irlvdm crkwth tk YBW/nasdi crkwth& ami bkr

upcrailmc thd lmiustrlaf ami dxpkrt stru`turd tk hlch/sjlff ami td`hmkfkcy/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts-

(ll, Dbbkrt kb thd oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry tk nulfi hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms- Yhls ba`tkr lsdssdmtlaf bkr `rdatlmc a mdw nuslmdss dmvlrkmodmt tk stloufatd a iymaol` prlvatd sd`tkr whl`h lslmmkvatlkm/krldmtdi-

(lll, Yhd rdsufts kb thksd twk ba`tkrs àm nd dxpd`tdi tk rdbfd`t km thd iymaol` `hamcds lmthd stru`turd kb `koparatlvd aivamtacd-


11/33


77< fkw/lm`kod d`kmkolds ard thksd wlth acrkss matlkmaf lm`kod (CML, pdr `aplta kb TP)


12/33


17

Yanfd 15 Crkss Matlkmaf Lm`kod (CML, pdr @apltakb APDAM D`kmkolds($,

@kumtry Mkolmaf CMLpdr `apltalm >77->

Rldt Mao 1&110 2-> 2-1

Fak WI^


13/33


11

Blcurd 05 Yrdmis lm Mkolmaf Crkss Matlkmaf Lm`kod (CML, pdr @aplta bkr

Assk`latlkm kb Pkuthdast Aslam Matlkms ami Kthdr D`kmkolds

Mktd5 W^@ ? Wdkpfd ^dpunfl` kb @hlma-

Pkur`d5 Skrfi Namj >711-


14/33


1>

Blcurd 95 Yrdmis lm Mkolmaf CML pdr @aplta bkr Aslam Hlch/Lm`kod D`kmkolds



15/33


10

9- Wkfl`y Lssuds bkr APDAM tk Avkli thd Oliifd/Lm`kodYrap5 Slth Lopflàtlkms brko thd Dxpdrldm`d kb Yhd^dpunfl` kb Jkrda

Lm thls sd`tlkm& wd wlff `kopard thd ùrrdmt sltuatlkm kb APDAM oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds wlththat kb Jkrda lm thd fatd 1& thd amafysls wlff bkùs km thrddba`tkrs (^"I ami huoam rdskur`ds& lmstltutlkms& ami lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss, whl`h ardsuppksdi tk abbd`t thd tramsltlkm-

9-1 ^dsdar`h ami Idvdfkpodmt A`tlvltlds ami Quaflty kb Huoam

^dskur`ds

Yhd lopkrtamt rkfd kb ^"I was ilsùssdi lm sd`tlkm >- At prdsdmt& hkwdvdr& ^"I dxpdmilturd

as a pdr`dmtacd kb crkss ikodstl` prkiu`t (CIW, ls dxtrdodfy fkw lm bkur APDAM oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds (Yanfd >,- Oafayslas blcurd was thd hlchdst aokmc thdsd `kumtrlds& nut lt waskmfy 7-29$ lm >772& `kopardi wlth >-97$ bkr Jkrda 17 ydars darfldr- Lm ba`t& thd saod lmilàtkrbkr Jkrda lm thd darfy 17705 193,- Lm ba`t& lm Jkrda& ^"I a`tlvltlds havd nddm ilrd`tfy `kmiu`tdi ny thd ckvdrmodmt

slm`d thd oli/1


16/33


19

Yanfd >5 ^dsdar`h ami Idvdfkpodmt Dxpdmilturd

($ kb CIW,

Oafaysla Yhalfami Lmikmdsla Whlflpplmds Jkrda

1 7-1> >-9>

1777 7-93 7->4 7-73 >-07

>771 7->2 7-74 >-93

>77> 7-24 7->9 7-14 >-97

>770 7->2 7-19 >-9779 7-27 7->2 >-28

>774 7->0 7-74 7-1> >-3772 7-29 7->4 0-71

>773 0->1



17/33


14

Yanfd 05 Muondr kb Watdmts Cramtdi as Ilstrlnutdi ny \dar kb Watdmt Cramt

Wrd >777 >771 >77> >770 >779 >774 >772 >773 >778 >77< >717

Eapam 1&21>&02> 00&>>0 09&848 04&414 04&098 07&091 02&873 00&049 00&28> 04&471 99&819

Yalpdl&@hlma 131&792 4&031 4&901 4&> 8&>08

Jkrda 142&877 0&408 0&382 0&8 9&04> 4& 11&231

W^@ 18& 221 33> 1&>>4 1&244 >&243

Plmcapkrd 17&>3> >3 99< 092 91> 032 01> >80 078 008 011 074 9>&219 0< 44 47 87 88 110 148 14> 148 >7>

Whlflpplmds 807 1> 19 >> >1 18 04 >7 12 >0 03

Yhalfami 399 >9 99 >4 18 12 01 11 >> >0 92

Lmikmdsla 039 9 3 < 9 17 0 4 4 0 2

Rldt Mao 02 7 7 7 1 > 7 7 7 > >

Pkur`d5 TP Watdmt ami Yraidoarj Kbbl`d >711-


18/33


12

Yhd rdfatdi lssud ls thd quaflty kb huoam rdskur`ds- Yhd rdsufts kb ^"I a`tlvltlds havd tknd `koodr`laflzdi lmtk mdw prkiu`ts (prkiu`t lmmkvatlkm, kr usdi bkr loprkvlmc thdprk`dss kb prkiu`tlkm kb dxlstlmc prkiu`ts (prk`dss lmmkvatlkm,- Yhls oust nd suppkrtdi nyavalfanlflty kb hlch/quaflty huoam rdskur`ds- Yhls lmvkfvds mkt kmfy loprkvlmc thd

diuàtlkmaf fdvdf kb thd fankr bkr`d nut afsk lm`rdaslmc thd suppfy kb fankr mddidi ny blros-Lm kthdr wkris& bkr sustalmdi crkwth tk attalm hlch/lm`kod `kumtry status& oliifd/lm`kod`kumtrlds mddi okrd tdrtlary craiuatds whk ard lmtdrdstdi lm dmclmddrlmc ami lmiustrlaftd`hmlàf tralmlmc- Fkkjlmc at thd ùrrdmt sltuatlkm kb APDAM oliifd/lm`kod d`kmkolds&wd blmi that lt ls qultd ilbbdrdmt brko thd àsd kb Jkrda lm thd 1


19/33


13

Yanfd 95 Phard kb Ydrtlary Craiuatds lm Dmclmddrlmc& Oamuba`turlmc& ami

@kmstru`tlkm (lm pardmthdsds ard shards kb craiuatds lm sk`laf s`ldm`ds,

$Jkrda Oafaysla Yhalfami Whlflpplmds Lmikmdsla

1777 0>(>1,

>771 0>(>7,

>77> 07(1770 >8(1779 >8(10(>>, 19(00,

>774 >7,

>772 >8(>7, >9(>4,

>773 >2(>7, >8(01, >778 >4(>7, >4(00,

>77< >9(>7, , 12(08,

Mktd5 Blcurds ard shards lm tktaf tdrtlary craiuatds-

Pkur`d5 Tmltdi Matlkms Diuàtlkmaf& P`ldmtlbl` ami @ufturaf Krcamlzatlkm >711-

9-> Lmtdrmatlkmaf @kopdtltlvdmdss ami Iymaol` @koparatlvd

Aivamtacd

Slth ^"I dbbkrt ami hlch quaflty kb huoam rdskur`ds& oliifd/lm`kod d`kmkolds àm nddxpd`tdi tk upcraid thdlr lmiustrlaf stru`turd tk hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts ami loprkvdkvdr tlod thdlr `kopdtltlvdmdss lm lmtdrmatlkmaf oarjdts- Fdt us `kmblro thls wlth thd àsdkb Jkrda-

Blcurd 4 lffustratds thd pksltlkm kb Jkrda ami APDAM d`kmkolds lm tdros kb fankrprkiu`tlvlty ami wacds `kopardi wlth thd TP fdvdfs (TP ? 177,- Yhd 94 flmd shkws thdnasd whdrd nkth fankr prkiu`tlvlty ami wacds lm thd TP ard dquaf tk 177- As wacds rlsd&fankr prkiu`tlvlty oust lm`rdasd at thd saod ratd kr bastdr lm kridr tk oalmtalm lmtdrmatlkmaf`kopdtltlvdmdss- Yajlmc thd TP as a rdbdrdm`d nasd& thd `kumtrlds km thd uppdr part kb thdflmd ard rdfatlvdfy `kopdtltlvd lm tdros kb fankr `kst- A``krilmc tk Blcurd 4& thd pksltlkm kbJkrda was wdff ankvd thd flmd km thd uppdr part& succdstlmc that thd `kumtry was qultdstrkmc lm tdros kb lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lm >777-


20/33


18

Blcurd 45 Fankr Wrkiu`tlvlty ami Sacds lm >777

Mktd5 Lm nkth fankr prkiu`tlvlty ami wacds& blcurds kb da`h `kumtry ard `af`ufatdi as pdr`dmtacds kb thd TP fdvdfs

whl`h ard shkwm ny thd 94 flmd-

Pkur`d5 Tmltdi Matlkms @kmbdrdm`d km Yraid ami Idvdfkpodmt (TM@YAI, >77>-

Blcurd 2 tra`ds thd fkmc/tdro `hamcds lm Jkrdas lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidxds kbfkw sjlff/lmtdmslvd ami hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd oamuba`turdi prkiu`ts- Tmtlf thd oli/1


21/33


1-

Pkur`d5 @afùfatdi brko Tmltdi Matlkms& varlkus ydars-

Iud tk iata `kmstralmts& oamuba`turdi prkiu`ts havd nddm `fasslbldi lmtk kmfy twk crkups&nut wd àm `kmblro thd su``dss kb Jkrda lm shlbtlmc kvdr tlod brko fkw tk hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts- Blro/fdvdf lmbkroatlkm burthdr `kmblros that trdmi- Bkr dxaopfd& fdt usfkkj at thd àsd kb thlm blfo tramslstkr (YBY, flquli `rystaf ilspfays (F@Is,- F@Is wdrdplkmddrdi lm thd fatd 10& Yanfd 8-


22/33


>7

Mdxt& fdt us amafyzd thd ùrrdmt sltuatlkm kb APDAM oliifd/lm`kod d`kmkolds- A``krilmctk Blcurd 3& umfljd thd àsd kb Jkrda lm >777 (Blcurd 4,& bkur APDAM oliifd/lm`kodd`kmkolds lm >772 wdrd mkt lm a strkmc pksltlkm lm tdros kb fankr `kst- Oafaysla ls km thdflmd wlth thd TP: thd kthdr thrdd `kumtrlds ard sflchtfy ankvd thd flmd- Yhls succdsts that

prkiu`tlvlty kb fankr has mkt rlsdm ou`h bastdr tham that kb wacds-

Blcurd 35 Fankr Wrkiu`tlvlty ami Sacds lm >772

Mktd5 Lm nkth fankr prkiu`tlvlty ami wacds& blcurds kb da`h `kumtry ard àfùfatdi as pdr`dmtacds kb thd TP fdvdfs&

whl`h ard shkwm ny thd 94 flmd-

Pkur`d5 Tmltdi Matlkms @kmbdrdm`d km Yraid ami Idvdfkpodmt (TM@YAI, >77>-

Lm aiiltlkm tk wdaj ^"I dbbkrt ami lmapprkprlatd stru`turd kb tdrtlary craiuatds& whl`h`hara`tdrlzdi a shkrtacd kb suppfy kb dmclmddrs ami am kvdr/suppfy kb craiuatds lm kthdrbldfis& thd sfkw loprkvdodmt kb fankr prkiu`tlvlty rdfatlvd tk wacds appdardi tk wdajdmthd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss kb APDAM oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds- Lm thd àsd kb


23/33


>1

Oafaysla& slm`d arkumi >777& whlfd thd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx kb fkw sjlff/lmtdmslvd oamuba`turdi prkiu`ts nd`aod stacmamt& that kb hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`tsafsk fkst okodmtuo ami shkwdi a sflcht id`flmd abtdr a`hldvlmc a okidst mdt calmbkffkwlmc thd Aslam blmam`laf `rlsls lm 1


24/33


>>

Blcurd 778 nut lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss has loprkvdi kmfy vdry sfkwfy (Blcurd 17,- Lmaiiltlkm& thd `kumtry sddos `drtalm tk nd`kod a mdt lopkrtdr kb fkw sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`tslm thd `kolmc ydars slm`d thd lmidx kb thdsd prkiu`ts ls kmfy sflchtfy hlchdr tham thd zdrkflmd ami has id`flmdi stdailfy-

Yhd okst sdrlkus `asd ls that kb Lmikmdsla (Blcurd 11,- Plm`d arkumi >777& thdlmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx kb fkw sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts has id`flmdi& thkuch at

a sfkw ratd& nut thd lmidx kb hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts has shkwm mk loprkvdodmt-Okrdkvdr& slm`d >772& thd lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmidx kb nkth typds kb prkiu`tshas id`flmdi sharpfy- Lb thls trdmi `kmtlmuds& lm thd `kolmc ydars Lmikmdsla wlff nd`kod amdt lopkrtdr kb fkw sjlff/lmtdmslvd prkiu`ts whlfd thd idbl`lt kb traid lm hlch sjlff/lmtdmslvdprkiu`ts afsk `kmtlmuds tk crkw- Yhls ils/lmiustrlaflzatlkm phdmkodmkm oay nd a rdsuft kbthd dxpkrt nkko kb prloary `kookiltlds& su`h as maturaf cas ami `ruid klf& brko thls`kumtry whl`h ls rl`h lm maturaf rdskur`ds- Plm`d thd turm kb thd >1st `dmtury& thd prl`ds kb


25/33


>0

prloary ckkis lm wkrfi oarjdts havd rlsdm raplify- Bkr dxaopfd& a``krilmc tk Iatastrdao(>711,& prl`ds kb prloary ckkis su`h as lrkm krd ami `ruid klf euopdi ny thrdd tk bkurtlods brko >77> tk >778- Km thd kthdr hami& afkmc wlth rapli crkwth bkr as fkmc as 07ydars& slm`d thd oli/177


26/33


>9

9-0 Yhd Lmstltutlkmaf Ba`tkr

As mktdi lm sd`tlkm >& nulfilmc hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms ls dssdmtlaf bkr a oliifd/lm`kod

`kumtry tk prdpard bkr a su``dssbuf tramsltlkm tk a hlch/lm`kod d`kmkoy- Clvdm thd sdvdrdiata `kmstralmts& lm thls sunsd`tlkm fdt us dxaolmd thd lmilàtkrs km d`kmkol` lm`dmtlvdami lmstltutlkmaf rdclod whl`h ard lopkrtamt bkr fkwdrlmc nuslmdss `ksts& rdiu`lmcum`drtalmtlds& ami dm`kuraclmc thd prlvatd sd`tkr tk lmvdst lm ^"I ami mdw lmiustrlds-

Iata bkr Blcurds 1>10 ard tajdm brko thd rdsufts kb thd okst rd`dmt survdy kb thd SkrfiNamj (>717, bkr 192 `kumtrlds- Yhd farcdst `lr`fd lm Blcurd 1> ami Blcurd 10 shkws thdhlchdst fdvdfs (17 pklmts, kb lmmkvatlkm/rdfatdi lmilàtkrs aokmc thd `kumtrlds survdydi-Yhd soaffdr `lr`fd shkws am avdracd quaflty (4 pklmts, kb da`h aspd`t kb lmstltutlkmaflmilàtkrs- Yhls avdracd quaflty fdvdf ls afsk apprkxloatdfy thd avdracd pksltlkm kb aff`kumtrlds survdydi-

Blcurd 1>5 ^dfatlvd Wksltlkm kb Assk`latlkm kb Pkuth Dast Aslam Matlkms

(APDAM, km D`kmkol` Lm`dmtlvd ami Lmstltutlkmaf ^dclod lm Oafaysla ami

Yhalfami


27/33


>4


Blcurd 105 ^dfatlvd Wksltlkm kb Assk`latlkm kb Pkuth Dast Aslam Matlkms

(APDAM, km D`kmkol` Lm`dmtlvd ami Lmstltutlkmaf ^dclod lm Lmikmdsla ami

Whlflpplmds


28/33


>2


Oafaysla ls lm a rdfatlvdfy strkmc pksltlkm lm su`h lmilàtkrs as ikodstl` `rdilt tk thdprlvatd sd`tkr& ckvdrmodmt dbbd`tlvdmdss& ami lmtdffd`tuaf prkpdrty prktd`tlkm& nut thdrd lsou`h rkko tk loprkvd prdss brddiko& `kst tk dmbkr`d `kmtra`ts& ami vkl`d amia``kumtanlflty- Bkr Yhalfami& thd pksltlkm ls rdfatlvdfy ckki lm `kst tk dmbkr`d `kmtra`ts&ikodstl` `rdilt tk thd prlvatd sd`tkr& ami lmtdmslty kb fkàf `kopdtltlkm& nut lm oamy kthdraspd`ts lts pksltlkm ls rdfatlvdfy wdaj- Lm thd àsd kb thd Whlflpplmds& okst lmilàtkrs ardou`h fkwdr tham thd avdracd pksltlkm kb thd `kumtrlds survdydi- Lm partlùfar& pkfltlàfstanlflty& rufd kb faw& ami lmtdffd`tuaf prkpdrty prktd`tlkm ard oaekr bldfis whl`h mddisunstamtlaf loprkvdodmt- Lmikmdsla appdars tk nd lm am dxtrdodfy wdaj pksltlkm lm okstlmilàtkrs ami thus thd quaflty kb lmstltutlkms bkr a skumi nuslmdss dmvlrkmodmt shkufi ndsunstamtlaffy loprkvdi-

Yhd iata sdt bkr thd APDAM >707 Wrked`t prdpardi ny thd Aslam Idvdfkpodmt NamjLmstltutd (AINL, ard afsk usdbuf bkr amafyzlmc thd lmstltutlkmaf ba`tkrs kb APDAM `kumtrlds-Fkkjlmc at thdsd iata& wd blmi that thd Whlflpplmds ami Lmikmdsla wdrd `fasslbldi lm thdmdcatlvd slid kb aff lmilàtkrs km ckvdrmam`d (vkl`d ami a``kumtanlflty& pkfltlàf stanlflty&ckvdrmodmt dbbd`tlvdmdss, ami km thd rdcufatkry systdo (rufd kb faw& rdcufatkry quafltylmidx,- 17

^dcarilmc thd `kmtrkf kb `krruptlkm& thd sltuatlkm lm Lmikmdsla ami thd Whlflpplmds lspartlùfarfy sdrlkus: thd lmidx lm thdsd twk `kumtrlds was 7-3 lm >77-4 (thd wkrst, tk >-4 (thd ndst,-


29/33


>3

Yhalfami was afsk mdcatlvd& dvdm thkuch lts sltuatlkm was ndttdr tham lm thd Whlflpplmdsami Lmikmdsla-11

4- Yhd @asd kb Rldt Mao5 Yhd Wksslnlflty kb am DarfyAppdaram`d kb thd Oliifd/Lm`kod Yrap;

As shkwm lm sd`tlkm 0& thd pdr àplta CML kb Rldt Mao was TP)1&777 lm >778& ami thus nythd Skrfi Namj stamiari thd `kumtry eklmdi thd oliifd/lm`kod crkup- Lm ba`t& oliifdlm`kod ls wlidfy idblmdi as ramclmc brko )1&777 tk )1>&777 nut amafysts ilsùsslmcoliifd/lm`kod trap lssuds tdmi tk fkkj at thd `kumtrlds whl`h havd rda`hdi ankut )4&777kr okrd (d-c-& Ppdm`d >711,- Lm kthdr wkris& lb oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds ard ilvlidi lmtkfkw ami hlch suncrkups& thd trap lssuds havd kbtdm nddm rdbdrrdi tk as thd hlch suncrkupkb oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds- Hkw shkufi wd vldw thd àsd kb fkw oliifd/lm`kod`kumtrlds; Slff thdy `kmtlmud tk crkw tk thd fdvdf kb hlch oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds wlthkut

wkrrylmc ankut thd trap; Kr wlff thd trap appdar darfy sk that thd d`kmkoy stacmatds krshkws sfkw crkwth& wlth pdr àplta CML at arkumi )>&777; Yhdsd qudstlkms ard ùrrdmtfyrdfdvamt tk Rldt Mao-

Plm`d thd start kbikl okl(rdmkvatlkm, lm 1


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`kopdmsatlkm pali tk barodrs ls usuaffy bar fkwdr tham oarjdt prl`ds- Fami ilsputdsthdrdbkrd kbtdm k`ùr lm afokst dvdry prkvlm`d- Yhd flolt kb fami affkàtlkm bkr da`h barodrami fa`j kb prlvatd fami kwmdrshlp ard lmstltutlkmaf lopdilodmts tk hlchdr acrlùfturafprkiu`tlvlty ami okrd dbbl`ldmt usd kb fami rdskur`ds- Pk`laf umrdst lm ruraf ardas afsk has

aivdrsd dbbd`ts km thd buturd idvdfkpodmt kb Rldt Maos d`kmkoy-

Yhd blrst >7>4 ydars kb rdbkros lm Rldt Mao& thd blrst phasd kb ikl okl& àm nd`hara`tdrlzdi as craiuaflst lm thd sdmsd that thd stratdcy pkstpkmdi thd rdbkros kmkwmdrshlp kb prkiu`tlkm odams& su`h as PKDs ami fami iud tk pkfltlàf sdmsltlvlty& whlfdprkvlilmc lm`dmtlvds bkr barodrs ami prlvatd lmvdstkrs (oalmfy bkrdlcm lmvdstkrs lm thd àsdkb Rldt Mao, tk dxpami prkiu`tlkm- As shkwm darfldr& su`h stratdcy has sk bar nddmdbbd`tlvd ami Rldt Mao has nddm anfd tk dsàpd brko thd pkvdrty trap ami eklm thd crkup kbfkw oliifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds-

Lm thd darfldr phasd kb ikl okl& thd craiuaflst stratdcy was dbbd`tlvd ndàusd rdbkrosbkùsdi km acrlùfturd ami BIL& ami thd dxlstdm`d kb PKDs was mkt am knsta`fd lmrdskur`d affkàtlkm- Nut slm`d >772& PKDs havd nd`kod statd `kmcfkodratds whl`h havd

abbd`tdi Rldt Maos d`kmkol` pkfl`lds ami ba`tkr oarjdts- Lm aiiltlkm& iud tk iddpdmlmclmtdcratlkm lmtk lmtdrmatlkmaf oarjdts& oarjdi ny thd a``dsslkm kb Rldt Mao tk thd SkrfiYraid Krcamlzatlkm lm Eamuary >773& Rldtmaodsd lmiustrlds havd nddm lm`rdaslmcfydxpksdi tk lmtdmsd `kopdtltlkm ami thus burthdr rdbkros bkr lm`rdaslmc thdlr prkiu`tlvltyhavd nd`kod dssdmtlaf-

Lm am darfldr papdr (Yram >778,& L dophaslzdi thd md`dsslty tk havd mdw rdbkros`hara`tdrlzdi ny hlch/quaflty lmstltutlkms whl`h lm`fuid prlvatd kwmdrshlp kb prkiu`tlkmba`tkrs& idvdfkpodmt kb ba`tkr oarjdts& `krpkratd ckvdrmam`d kb PKDs ami d`kmkol`crkups& wlid partl`lpatlkm kb stajdhkfidrs lm pkfl`yoajlmc prk`dssds& tramspardm`y kbpkfl`y ami lts lopfdodmtatlkm& ami lm`rdaslmc quaflty kb nurdau`rats ami td`hmk`rats- Larcudi that& wlthkut thdsd mdw rdbkros& thd Rldtmaodsd d`kmkoy wlff skkm baff lmtk

stacmatlkm kr sfkw crkwth& as idpl`tdi ny @D lm Blcurd 1- Lm Yram (>778,& L ili mkt usd thdtdro .oliifd/lm`kod trap. as lt was mkt pkpufar at that tlod& nut thd dssdm`d kb oy pklmtwas thd saod as what L havd dxpfkrdi lm thls papdr-

Yhus& dvdm thkuch Rldt Mao ls eust dmtdrlmc thd fkw fdvdf kb oliifd/lm`kod& thd trap oayappdar skkm lb thd `kumtry balfs tk shlbt brko craiuaf tk irastl` rdbkros kb PKDs amid`kmkol` crkups& ba`tkr oarjdts& ami pkfl`y bkroufatlkm- 1>

1> Amkthdr prknfdo dm`kumtdrdi ny Rldt Mao has nddm thd lopa`t kb thd rlsd kb thd W^@- @kmtlmulmc

dxpamslkm kb oamuba`turdi lopkrts brko thd W^@ has rdsuftdi lm a farcd traid idbl`lt aokumtlmc tk okrdtham 17$ kb Rldt Maos CIW lm >711- Lm aiiltlkm tk thd rapli lmiustrlaflzatlkm kb lts clamt mdlchnkr& thdbumiaodmtaf rdaskm bkr thls sdrlkus lonafam`d ls Rldt Maos fa`j kb lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss lmoamuba`turdi prkiu`ts- Okrdkvdr& ny >714 whdm tarlbbs kb okst oamuba`turdi ckkis lopkrtdi brko thdW^@ wlff nd rdokvdi kr sunstamtlaffy fkwdrdi& thd lopa`t brko thd W^@ wlff havd nd`kod ou`h strkmcdr(Yram >717n,- Yhls lopa`t appdars tk strdmcthdm thd pksslnlflty kb am darfy appdaram`d kb thd oliifd/lm`kod trap lm Rldt Mao- Bkr Rldt Mao& thdrdbkrd& burthdr rdbkros alodi at strdmcthdmlmc thd lmtdrmatlkmaf`kopdtltlvdmdss kb oamuba`turdi prkiu`ts ard dssdmtlaf lb thd `kumtry ls tk dsàpd thls trap-

Shlfd thd prknfdo bkr hlcholiifd/lm`kod `kumtrlds su`h as Oafaysla ami Yhalfami ls lm prkoktlmc lmmkvatlkm/krldmtdi pkfl`y tk oalmtalm lmtdrmatlkmaf `kopdtltlvdmdss tk avkli thd trap& thd prknfdo bkra fkw oliifd/lm`kod `kumtry su`h as Rldt Mao ls prkoktlmc idvdfkpodmt kb ba`tkroarjdts ami dmsurlmc dquaf `kopdtltlkm aokmc d`kmkol` a`tkrs bkr dbbl`ldmt usd kb


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Date post:	14-Apr-2018
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The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

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