THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS: PRACTICAL TARGETS FOR REDUCING
EXTREME POVERTY
Integrated Approaches to Sustainable Development Practice
For class on: 29 January 2008John W McArthur, Columbia University
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
THE MILLENNIUM PROMISE
We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them are currently subjected.
- Millennium Declaration, September 2000
THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
[VIDEO]
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY: INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT
Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005
Regional Economic Growth Since 1980
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
East Asia& Pacific
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
MiddleEast &NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Avera
ge r
eal G
DP
per
cap
ita g
row
th (
PP
P$200
0)
1980-2004
1990-2004
Source: [ ]
Population Share in Extreme Poverty, 1981-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2004
% l
ivin
g u
nd
er $
1/d
ay
South Asia
East Asia &Pacific
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Latin America& Caribbean
Middle East &North Africa
Europe &Central Asia
Source: [ ]
MDG Reference Date
(1990)
Distribution of $1/day poverty by region, 1981-2004
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1981 1990 2004
Po
pu
latio
n (m
illio
ns)
Middle East &North Africa
Latin America andCaribbean
Europe and CentralAsia
East Asia Pacific
South Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Source: Chen and Ravallion 2007
Hunger MDG
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
East Asia& Pacific
Europe &CentralAsia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
Middle East& NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Pre
vale
nce
of
un
der
no
uri
shm
ent
(%)
1992
2003
Source: [ ]
Education MDG
0102030405060708090
100
East Asia& Pacific
Europe &CentralAsia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
MiddleEast &NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Pri
ma
ry s
ch
oo
l c
om
ple
tio
n r
ate
(%
)
1990
2004
Source: [ ]
Maternal mortality MDG
0
200
400
600
800
1000
East Asia& Pacific
Europe &CentralAsia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
Middle East& NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
De
ath
s p
er
10
0,0
00
liv
e b
irth
s
2000
Source: [ ]
Water MDG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
East Asia& Pacific
Europe &CentralAsia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
MiddleEast &NorthAfrica
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Po
pu
lati
on
wit
ho
ut
acce
ss t
o
imp
rove
d w
ater
so
urc
e (%
)
1990
2004
Source: [ ]
Child Mortality MDG
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
East Asia& Pacific
Europe &CentralAsia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
MiddleEast &NorthAfrica
SouthAsia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Un
de
r-5
de
ath
s p
er
1,0
00
liv
e b
irth
s
1990
2005
Source: [ ]
Source: JD Sachs Source: [ ]
GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY: INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT
Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
FOUR REASONS FOR SHORTFALLS
• Governance failures
• Areas of specific policy neglect
• Poverty traps
• Pockets of poverty
Source: UN Millennium Project. 2005.
THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
Cereal Yield, 1961-2004
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
kg
/he
cta
re
East Asia &Pacific
Latin America& Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT RISK (mortality)
Source: [ ]
ECOLOGICAL FACTORS CONDUCIVE TO MALARIA
Source: Kiszewski et al., AJTMH, 2004
HUMAN VULNERABILITY INDEX:Agriculture, Transport & Malaria risk
Source: []
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
BASIC CONCEPTS: GROWTH, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION & THE MDGs
Source: UN Millennium Project. 2005.
THE MDGs REQUIRE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES ACROSS SECTORS
health
infrastructure
agricultural productivity
watereducation
gender equality
environmental management
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS
PROBLEM (e.g.)
• Low food yield
• Malaria
• AIDS
• Maternal mortality
• Low primary enrolment
• Lack of physical access to markets
PRACTICAL PROBLEMS => PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS
PROBLEM (e.g.) INTERVENTION (e.g.)
Low food yield Fertilizer, seeds, water
Malaria Bednets, ACTs, spraying
AIDS Anteretrovirals, condoms
Maternal mortality Emergency obstetrical care
Low primary enrolment Abolish school fees, introduce school meals, train teachers
Lack of physical access to markets Roads, ports
THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
Cereal Yield, 1961-2004
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
kg
/he
cta
re
East Asia &Pacific
Latin America& Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005
Fertilizer Use, 1961-2003
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
100g
/ara
ble
hecta
re East Asia &Pacific
Latin America& Caribbean
South Asia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
THE ROLE OF INPUTS FOR AGRICULTURE
EARLY SUCCESS IN MALAWI
Source: [ ]
THE MDGs ARE FEASIBLE
Countries can break out of poverty if:
1. Broad-based integrated investments are implemented – at scale – in known practical technologies for health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental management
2. Sound policies and governance are in place, including good economic management
3. Improved market access bolsters economic progress
But there is no “magic bullet”
THE MDGs REQUIRE GROWTH AND INVESTMENT
Growth is necessary, but not sufficient, for MDGs
• Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth (e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability)
• Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in people, infrastructure & environment
AND
Public investments in the MDGs are critical for growth
• Private sector-led growth requires minimum standards in health, education, infrastructure
• Direct investments must complement good economic policies
5 CORE ELEMENTS OF AN MDG-BASED STRATEGY
1. Ambition: Aims are at least as ambitious as MDG targets for 2015
2. Scope: The range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all the MDGs
3. Practicality: For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed, bottom-up assessment of practical needs
4. Timeline: The medium term strategy is nested in a 10-year framework
5. Financing: The financing is aligned with needs
TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS
• WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?
• WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs?
• WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS?
• WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN?
• WHAT WILL IT COST?
$ per capita (USD 2002)
Source: [ ]
SOURCES OF FINANCE: EXAMPLE OF GHANA$
billi
ons
(US
D 2
002
)
Source: [ ]
CURRENT GLOBAL FINANCE EFFORT
Source: [ ]
UNPACKING THE NUMBERS:TODAY’S SUPPORT TO AFRICA
Source: OECD-DAC, 2006
MILLENNIUM VILLAGES
Source: JW McArthur
Source: C Bahadur
Source: JD Sachs
Source: JW McArthur
WHERE WE STAND WITH 7 YEARS TO GO
Are we on course to look back, in 2015, and say that no effort was spared?
So far the record is mixed.
- Kofi Annan, August 2006
