THE MODEL - AIECaiec.idp.com/uploads/pdf/Bohm_Meares_Pearce_Global Student Mobili… · Education...

THE MODEL

David Pearce

Centre for International Economics

© IDP Education Australia 2002

• Approach

• Key results


Approach

• Combine ‘theory’ and data• ‘theory’ suggests broad relationships• data gives estimates of the order of

magnitude of effects

• Country level analysis• 136 countries• added up to give regional results

• 1996 UNESCO data• updated to latest where available• supplemented with UN, World Bank and

IMF data© IDP Education Australia 2002

Education and income

• Tertiary participation closely related to income

• For different participation levels, foreign access ratio is related to income


Participation and income

0 10000 20000 30000

Income per capita

Pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n


Foreign access ratio and income

-0.4

1

0.6

0.4 0.4

0

>500 500 to

1000

1000 to

1500

1500 to

2000

2000 to

3000

3000+

Number of students per 100k population


Tertiary

participation

Foreign access rate Total student numbers

AttractivenessMarket

share

Number of

foreign

students

International campus

ratio

Foreign students in

Australia

Students at Australian transnational institutions

X

X

X

X


Income Population

Total tertiary student numbers

160 m

66 m

263 m

97 m

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


Composition of tertiary students

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Africa Middle East Asia America Europe Oceania


Numbers of foreign students

1.8 m

4.9 m

7.2 m

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


Composition of foreign students

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025



Students at Australian institutions

562 k

68 k

434 k

33 k

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


Composition of foreign students in

Australia

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025



Composition of Asian students in

Australia

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

East Asia South East Asia South Asia


How robust are the estimates?

• Look at a wide range of parameter values

• Generate estimates for many different parameter values

• Check range of estimates


Sensitivity analysis

Foreign students

2005 2015 2025

Total students

2005 2015 2025

Australian international campuses

2005 2015 2025


Foreign students in Australia

2005 2015 2025

Scenarios

• Ideal tool for testing different scenarios

• Three examples:• effect of higher income growth• the effect of AIDS• the effect of changes in preferences

for foreign education


High income growth: foreign

students 2025 ('000)

287

963

5,004

560+8%

+9%

+35%

+26%

Africa Asia America Europe


The effect of AIDS

• Lower population in key age groups

• Fewer funds available for education

• Lower economic growth


Effect of AIDS: foreign students in

2025 ('000)

5,004

560

-4 %

-16%

Africa Asia


New preference for foreign education

• Hypothesis: some component of foreign education will become important in high participation countries

• Test importance by altering model parameters• increase responsiveness of foreign access

rate to income growth


Foreign preference: foreign students

in 2025 ('000)

287

963

5,004

560

+29%

+15%

+8%

+0.8%

Africa Asia America Europe


Global Student Mobility 2025Key Implications for the

Australian International Education Industry

Anthony Bohm,

Head, Planning and Research Branch

IDP Education Australia


In 2025, the global demand for Australian

higher education will exceed 996,000 students

Some key questions…

What is the role of Australian universities in

meeting the global demand for education?

Can Australian universities maintain

diversity while meeting the future demand

for international education?


A quick recap of the global picture:

• 1.8 million -> 7.2 million

• Average growth of 5.8% p.a

• Asia will dominate: 43% -> 70% of demand

• China & India = 51% of demand

• New markets = Turkey, Morocco and Iran

• Europe: 32% -> 13%

• Americas: 8% -> 4%


A quick recap of the Australian picture:

Total International Students

• 102,000 in 2000 -> 996,000 in 2025

• Average students per university: 2,500 -> 23,200

• International students > Australian students

101956

996602

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025


International Students in Australia

• Demand from Asia will increase: 83% -> 92%

• China, Malaysia, India and Indonesia = 62%

• All top ten markets are in Asia

• Europe: 8% -> 3%

• Americas: 6% -> 3%

• Emergence of new demand drivers

Transnational Education

• Transnational programs: 33% -> 44%

• Asia will dominant transnational demand (98%)

• East Asia (49%) and South East Asia (46%)


Implication:

What is the role of Australian universities in

meeting the global demand for international

education?


Australian economic and political perspective…

• ‘Fulfilment of human and social potential’

• Building a knowledge economy

• Globally competitive labour force

• ‘Green’ sustainable export industry

• Contributing over $38 billion in 2025

• Further integrating Australia within the region

• Mechanisms for global diplomacy


University perspective…

Can Australian universities not afford to increase their

involvement in international education?

• Increasing cost of quality and excellence

• Australia has 600,000 domestic higher education

students [4% of the population]

• Higher education participation: Australia [63%],

high income countries [60%]

• Slow population growth: 20-24 years will increase

from 1.35 million to 1.40 million by 2031

• International education will drive future growth


Australian student perspective…

Effective engagement in international education

provides wide-ranging benefits for Australian students

• Maintained access to quality and excellence

• Increased choice within the Australian education

• Increased access to world–leading specialisations

• Internationalisation of the curriculum

• Increased recognition of Australian qualifications

around the world

• Increased global mobility of Australian students

• Improved employment prospects


Implication:

Can Australian universities maintain diversity and

meet the future demand for international

education?


What do we mean by diversity…

• Diversity refers to the need to obtain a

‘distribution’ of international students by:

• Disciplines

• Levels of study

• Campuses (regional and transnational)

• Regions and countries


Why do we need diversity…

• Broaden and expand political networks

• Sustaining the export market -> managing risk

• Productive diversity -> globally aware graduates

• Enriching Australian communities

Measuring diversity…

• Dominant measures of classroom diversity:

• %international to domestic students

• % students by region or country


The paradox of ‘diversity’.

• What does ‘diversity’ mean for students in

transnational programs?

• How do the political, economic, academic and

social motivations for diversity apply to

transnational programs?

• Could we see the development of ‘international

campuses’ in Australia?


Implications…

• Concepts of diversity will significantly determine

Australia’s ability to meet the future demand.

• Possible solution: Grow new markets, do not

lose traditional markets BUT requires relatively

high share of a small market

Asia

Others

93% 80%

• Warning: If you limit

capacity, demand will

be met by competitors

and institutions will risk

losing their core

markets…


Implication:

A new competitive environment will emerge…


New competitors will enter the market….

Critical question:

• What will be the role of the private education or

corporate sectors in meeting the global demand for

international education?

• What will be the global languages of the future and

how will that alter the composition of demand?

• What will be the role of non-English speaking

destination countries in meeting the global demand

for international education?


A new marketing paradigm….

Adams and Walters (2001)

“ Recruitment of students to a network of regional,

global and virtual campuses through the creation of

innovative international degree products,

relationship and technology management “

Re-evaluate the value-chain: after sales service


Implication:

International education will fundamentally alter

Australian government policy

• International revenue will outstrip

government funding

• To capitalise on the future demand requires

investment in infrastructure now

• Quality assure the inflow of new entrants in the

market, such as corporate universities

• Facilitate the formal and informal recognition of

Australian qualifications around the world

• Ensure equity and access to higher education


Implication:

Changing the composition of demand

• Global demand will no longer be driven by an

inability to access local higher education

• Increased need for labour market ‘differentiation’

creates higher demand for study abroad

• Composition of demand will be closely tied to

trends in the global labour markets

• Emerging demand for disciplines in line with new

areas of labour demand – health care, environment

• Flexible, just-in-time, shorter education increasing

against traditional concepts of ‘university study’


Implication:

Changing the nature of supply

• In line with the changing composition of demand,

so too will the supply response change

• Fundamentally different industry structure

• Will we see a breaking down the value chain where

universities become ‘global content providers’?

• Universities will seek partnerships for culturally

appropriate delivery of ‘global content’

• Long term – only those that deliver demonstrated

skills and competencies will survive


Implication:

International education will become an

increasingly important element of globalisation


Building a global civil society or educational

imperialism…

• Global flow of people, capital and knowledge

• Catalyst for a global civil society

• Global diplomacy and building global relations

• Mechanism for economic and political agendas

• Educational ‘imperialism’ and power structures

• Role of reciprocity


Australian University of the Future…

Conglomerate incorporating:

• ‘Australian university’ meets the need of the local

community and supported by government

• ‘Corporate university’ meets the need of the local and

international business community

• ‘International university’ meets the need of the

international communities in which they operate

OR

• Relatively small, centres of higher learning and

pure research…


Date post:	18-Aug-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	tranhanh
View:	215 times
Download:	0 times

THE MODEL - AIECaiec.idp.com/uploads/pdf/Bohm_Meares_Pearce_Global Student Mobili… · Education...

Documents