REMSAD Simulation REMSAD Simulation of the BRAVO Tracer Experimentof the BRAVO Tracer Experiment

Michael G. BarnaMichael G. BarnaCooperative Institute for Research in the AtmosphereCooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Colorado State UniversityColorado State UniversityFort Collins, COFort Collins, CO

10 October 200210 October 2002

Sparse and infrequent observations

Observational errors

Further refinement of unimportant details

Crude diagnostic tools

Theoretical misunderstanding

Controversy

Incorrect interpretation of observations

Oversimplified models

Computer models

Coincidental agreement between theory and

observations

Publication

Code errors

Unrealistic assumptions Confusion

Further mis-understanding

Management directives

Sparse and infrequent observations

Observational errors

Further refinement of unimportant details

Crude diagnostic tools

Theoretical misunderstanding

Controversy

Incorrect interpretation of observations

Oversimplified models

Computer models

Coincidental agreement between theory and

observations

Publication

Code errors

Unrealistic assumptions Confusion

Further mis-understanding

Management directives

The Modeling Process….The Modeling Process….

Primer on BRAVO Modeling:

Tracer emission rates, July 2 - Sept. 16 1999

0.E+00

1.E-04

2.E-04

3.E-04

4.E-04

5.E-04

6.E-04

1999185 1999190 1999195 1999200 1999205 1999210 1999215 1999220 1999225 1999230 1999235 1999240 1999245 1999250 1999255 1999260

date

em

iss

ion

ra

te (

mo

l/se

c)

PDCH(EAGL) PPCH(BBPP) PTCH(EAGL) PDCB(EAGL)

Tracer Release Rates – Phase 1 (July 5 – September 16):

Tracer emission rates, Sept. 16 - Oct. 30 1999

0.0E+00

5.0E-05

1.0E-04

1.5E-04

2.0E-04

2.5E-04

3.0E-04

3.5E-04

4.0E-04

4.5E-04

1999260 1999265 1999270 1999275 1999280 1999285 1999290 1999295 1999300 1999305

date

em

iss

ion

ra

te (

mo

l/se

c)

PDCH(EAGL) PPCH(BBPP) PTCH(PRSH) PDCB(SNAN)

Tracer Release Rates – Phase 2 (Sept. 17 – October 30):

Tracer Release Sites and 6 hr Receptors:

PDCH tracer from Eagle Pass

BBNP

PDCH tracer from Eagle Pass

BBNP

Dispersion is a Lagrangian Process:

And a Three-Dimensional One:

Contour Maps of the Four Tracers:

Eagle Pass 12 Hour Timing Tracer at Marathon (PTCH):

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

1

2

3

8/1 8/8 8/15 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26

date 1999

mix

ing

ra

tio

(p

pq

V)

Obs C112 PTCH (ppqV) TRN.003 C112 PEC-PTCH (ppqV)

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9

date 1999

mix

ing

ra

tio

(p

pq

V)

Obs C114 PDCB (ppqV) TRN.003 C114 PMF-PDCB (ppqV)

Eagle Pass 24 Hour Timing Tracer at Monahans (PDCB):

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9

date 1999

mix

ing

ra

tio

(p

pq

V)

Obs C008 PDCB (ppqV) TRN.003 C008 PMF-PDCB (ppqV)

Eagle Pass 24 Hour Timing Tracer at Big Bend (PDCB):

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28

date 1999

mix

ing

ra

tio

(p

pq

V)

Obs C111 PDCH (ppqV) TRN.003 C111 SOA-PDCH (ppqV)

Eagle Pass Continuous Tracer at Persimmon Gap (PDCH):

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

0

1

2

3

7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28

date 1999

mix

ing

ra

tio

(p

pq

V)

Obs C008 PDCH (ppqV) TRN.003 C008 SOA-PDCH (ppqV)

Eagle Pass Continuous Tracer at Big Bend (PDCH):

REMSAD Tracer Prediction for BRAVO

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29

date 1999

mix

ing

rat

io (p

pq

V)

Obs C113 PDCB (ppqV) TRN.003 C113 PMF-PDCB (ppqV)

San Antonio Tracer at Fort Stockton (PDCB):

FTST - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

FTST Average - Obs (ppqV): FTST Average - Preds (ppqV):

MARA - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

MARA Average - Obs (ppqV): MARA Average - Preds (ppqV):

PRSG - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

PRSG Average - Obs (ppqV): PRSG Average - Preds (ppqV):

MONA - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

MONA Average - Obs (ppqV): MONA Average - Preds (ppqV):

BIBE - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

BIBE Average - Obs (ppqV): BIBE Average - Preds (ppqV):

STVN - Average

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCB

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

qV

)

STVN Average - Obs (ppqV): STVN Average - Preds (ppqV):

Predicted and Observed Average Tracer Concentrations:

Correlation Coefficient:

PDCH PPCH PTCH PDCBMONA 0.3137 0.2895 0.2858 0.1572FTST 0.2066 0.1540 0.2159 0.2698MARA 0.3176 0.0960 0.4247 0.4137PRSG 0.1845 0.1570 0.1864 0.1730BIBE 0.2069 0.1733 0.2277 0.0571STVN 0.1983 0.6414 0.1558 0.0958

PDCH Obs & Preds for All Six 6hr Tracer Monitors

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Observed and Predicted PDCH – All monitors:

y = 0.203 x + 0.361R = 0.25

Conclusions:

• Some skill in replicating timing (but often not magnitude) of the 12 hr and 24 hr Eagle Pass timing tracers

• Measured and predicted tracer concentration from Big Brown (PPCH) low (< 1 ppqV)

• Model tends to over-predict average concentrations at southern monitors

• Correlation coefficients: 0.05 – 0.65