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The Move to PrivatizationChina and Russia
Donald Roley
Overview
Brief History of both Countries Economic history Political history Demographic/ Geographic Overview
Countries in transition Economic Outlook
The History of Russia/USSR
Tsarist rule ended with Nicholas II in 1917 The USSR was formerly created in 1922
under Lenin Stalin replaces Lenin
NEP is replaced with “Five Year Plan” Mikhail Gorbachev stepped into a system that
remained virtually unchanged for 60 years!
History of China
Founded in 1949 as the PRC Under Mao Zedong China undergoes several
revolutions Great Leap Forward of the late 50’s Cultural Revolution of the late 60’s
Mao’s death in 1976 marked the period of real transformation
1978 saw the shift from a command economy to a mixed one
Countries in transition: Russia The move from planned to market economy
was abrupt They had to quickly accomplish the move
“If there was no breakthrough…in the near future, the entire process could be stalled…”(Sachs)
There were social/political motives as well Immediately started the voucher program
This successfully privatized 70% of medium and large enterprises and 90% of smaller ones
Countries in transition: Russia Problems with the voucher system
One voucher = one bottle of vodka There was still a distrust of Capitalist institutions
Public auctions were run by the bank Locations changed, phone calls were dropped, etc. Value of the vouchers changed dependent on number of
people at the auctions Self Dealing
Countries in transition: Russia Managers would steal from the company
Use the money to buy vouchers Convinced workers to sell vouchers Would run firm into the ground
They paid a low relative price for the firm Could steal plowback money Default on debts to suppliers
Suppliers would eventually stop dealing with them
Countries in transition: Russia Second Stage July 94
Direct selling of firms for cash After the voucher system, the state still held 15
20% of shares in firms Real GDP Growth -8.2% (US 2000)
Third Stage “Loans for Shares” Government gave banks shares in firms for
collateral on debt
*International Finacncial Statistics Yearbook
Countries in transition: Russia Problems with loans for shares
80 million dollar budget deficit in 96* They defaulted on most loans Rise of the oligarchs
CIA factbook
Russia Today
Population 143 million Growth rate -.37% Life expectancy 67.1 years
GDP (PPP) $1.53 trillion 2005 GDP Growth (real) 5.9% Unemployment Rate 7.6% 2004 FDI (current US dollars) 2 billion (WDI)
History of China
Founded in 1949 as the PRC Under Mao Zedong China undergoes several
revolutions Great Leap Forward of the late 50’s Cultural Revolution of the late 60’s
Mao’s death in 1976 marked the period of real transformation
1978 saw the shift from a command economy to a mixed one
Countries in transition: China China instituted the HRS in 1978
Basic units were production teams 1978-1984 China grain output raised 5%, and
gross value of agriculture by 7.7% From here they went on to the two land
approach Land divided into 3 parts
Food, contract, and contingency
Countries in transition: China Two land system is now widely excepted in
the country Farmers who participate have a 6.7% higher
technical efficiency Problems with HRS
Land Fragmentation Productive inefficiencies
Countries in transition: China Township and Village enterprises
From 28.2 million workers to 135 million in four years time and ¼ of the nation’s total output in 1996 (DaCoasta) Deregulation of monopolies
1993 share holding approach Employment in SOEs dropped 20% 1997-2001
It took the previous 23 years to realize a similar drop
China transition cont.
Rapid Growth without rapid inflation $40 Billion in Direct Foreign Investment
(1996) Shows trust in the rule of law and legitimacy of the
government Problems still exist
State Owned Entities No competition in banking industry
CIA factbook
China Today
Population 1.3 billion Growth rate .58% Life expectancy 72.27 years
GDP (PPP) $8.158 trillion 2005 GDP Growth (real) 9.2% Unemployment Rate 4.2% 2004 FDI (current US dollars) 42 billion (WDI)
Annual Inflation Percentage
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Per
cen
tag
e Russia
China
USA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1985 1986 1990 1993 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Annual Real GDP Growth (Percentages)
China
Russia
USA
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1985 1986 1990 1993 1996 1999 2000 2001
Foreign Direct Investment (Billions of US 2000 Dollars)
China
Russia
USA
http://www.worldbank.org/ecspf/PSD-Yearbook/russia.html
State Owned Manufactuing firms in Russia
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Number of Privatized Manufacturing f irms byyear
Private share of employment
http://www.worldbank.org/ecspf/PSD-Yearbook/russia.html
Private share of employment in Percentage
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Private share of employment
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/ent/papers/emd24.htm
Ownership Structure 1978 to 1994
COE = collective
SOE = State owned
IOE = Individual
OOE = Other owned
John Sun - Privatization: P. R. China 2005
Percent GDP Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
State Owned
Collective Owned
Private Owned
In Conclusion
Brief History of both Countries Economic history Political history Demographic/ Geographic Overview
Countries in transition Economic Outlook
Questions for the future
How will Russia get a hold of the growing black market and curb corruption?
As China continues to reform, will the Communist government eventually reform with it?
Questions???