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The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP)
Program
Don Anderson
NASA Headquarters
CMAI Meeting
NASA GISS
April 20, 2006
2011 Overarching Vision
“… a new approach is needed for climate model development. It is not practical for a single group to have expertise in all the components of a global model, as the models are becoming more complex and include more physical and biological processes. Models for long-term climate must extend from the deep ocean to the upper atmosphere, and components of the global system that were once treated as specified boundary conditions or neglected altogether must now be simulated and allowed to interact with other parts of the model. …”
GSFC Earth-Sun Exploration Division 2006 Strategic Plan
2011 Vision - Science Drivers• Coupled Earth System models and advanced data assimilation systems
• System components fully interactive: coupled ocean, atmosphere, land, sea-ice, chemistry, biosphere executing multiple ‘what if’ scenarios
• Models easily reconfigured for short-term prediction (weather & extreme events) to seasonal to long-term climate, global and regional
• Contributions to climate model development from diverse expert groups; multiple discipline (chemistry, pollution transport, land, sea-ice, atmosphere…) collaboration
• Implementation of 4D Variational data assimilation system with new data types• Open standards
• Increased model & analysis fidelity• Enhanced resolution (horizontal, vertical, temporal, spectral)
• Estimates of Uncertainty/reliability• large ensembles (perturbed initial conditions, multi-Center initial states, multi-Center models)
• Re-emphasis of data (satellite and in-situ observations for validation and simulation; preparation for new missions)• Greatly enhanced validation efforts with rapid access to data and model output from
multiple Centers
• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
• Enhanced tools for testing new methods at reduced effort and cost• Combinatorial problem in test and evaluation (many components, many versions
requiring “system-level” validation)
MAP NRA & the MAP Modeling Environment(ME)
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Modeling N
Crosscutting ThemesFocus Areas
Model, Analysis, Prediction Program / Multi-investigator proposals
CoreIntegration
Team
ExternalNRA
Proposals
ES
MFMAP
ModelingEnvironment
CMAI GMI ECCO IIGISS
Model E
…
MAP grant example: Schematic of the Carbon Data Assimilation SystemSome ‘Element’ partners: JPL, Harvard, MIT, GISS, CSI, WHOI, Ames, MSFC [DOE, NSF, NOAA,NASA]=> ESMF
ODAS
GEOS-5 GCM STRUCTURE
AGCM
CAP HISTORY
RADIATION
COLUMN PHYSICS
SOLAR
IR
MOIST
TURB
SURFACE
CHEMLAKE
OCEAN SKIN
DYNAMICS
GWDFVCORE
(Ts,Fi...)VEGDYN
CATCH
ICELAND
(Ts,Fi...)
SURFACE
DYNAMICS
Data AGCM
COUPLED
OGCM
Data OGCM
Poseidon
OBIO
CICEMOM4MITogcmPoseidon
African SAL: Impact on tropical cyclogenesis - hypothesize to be a hurricane suppressant, in an ocean marginally suitable for hurricane generation; examine SALimpact on microphyiscs, thermodynamic instability, shear,airmass dessication
ESS Planned Hurricane Field Campaign: NAMMA-06
• Out of Africa: African Easterly Waves are the progenitors of many late-season, strong category hurricanes that strike the U.S.• Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde• Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci• Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD• NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives• Platforms to include DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars
MAP Modeling Environment -20061. Testing a “new” coupled model configuration: a comparison of different ocean components
Goal to support multiple global “what-if” analysis
Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere
Long time series analysis and comparison to satellite data record
2. Coupling a regional model with a global model
Goal to illustrate global to regional interface & to demonstrate capability to support real-time field experiments
( Support NAMMA, A-Train, TRMM in both 1&2 )
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3. MERRA: Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and ApplicationsDevelop, validate, and disseminate a global retrospective analysis dataset. The project time period will cover the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present. The special focus of the atmospheric assimilation will be the hydrological cycle.
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MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 1.
NASA AmesMt. View, California
SPoRT FacilityNASA Marshall
Huntsville, Alabama
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COMPUTING NODES
NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS
SCIENCE ANALYSIS
GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4
GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4GEOS5/MODEL
GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/DAS
WRF EXTERNAL MODEL OUTPUT
PORTALS
EXPERIMENT: Embed WRF w/
GEOS5
GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONWRF/MODEL
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DATA NODES
Prepare Map & Movies & Web Access
Graphics,
Movies,Satellit
eData
SIVO/NCCS Analysis
Visualization
All modelOutputs
Satellite
Data
OceanColorGroup
OtherModelOutput
NASA AmesMt. View, California
National Lambda Rail (10 - 40 Gb/s)
INTEL CorpPortland, Oregon
Northrop GrummanMcLean, Virginia
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NASA GoddardGreenbelt, Maryland
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Conventional Network(600 Mb/s)
DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING NODES
NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS
NCCS/NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS
SCIENCE ANALYSIS
GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4
GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4
GEOS5/OGCM/MOM4
GEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDONGEOS5/OGCM/POSEIDON
MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 2.
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GFDL/NCDC MODEL OUTPUT
PORTALS
EXPERIMENT: Configure GEOS5 w/ Different Ocean Models
EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS
Model to model & model to data
validation / comparisons
Configure model, set up work flow
all remotely initiated via Web - ultimately SOA
DevelopmentEnvironment
ExperimentationEnvironment
Summary of Capabilities
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Visualization & AnalysisServers providing on-demand
support
Robust and non-intrusiveinfrastructure support
(security working across domains, network performance QOS,…)
Cross-site workflow (data/jobs) Remotely initiated via webschedule, monitor, manage
with greater autonomy across multi-sitecyber-infrastructure
Grey denotesOption turned off
ESMF Re-configurable models turn on/off
components, on/off outputsuser settable via web service*
Substantial compute resources connected byhigh-speed networks
load-balanced scheduled vs. queued
transparent site selection
Coupled Full-EarthModeling and
Data AssimilationSystem for
Earth-Sun Science
2005 Project Hurricane
2006 NASA MAP Modeling Environment
fvGCM (GEOS4)
GEOS-5
JCSDA/GSI Project Columbia
Integrating Earth System Modeling and Observations
Process Models
Component Models
Multi-component Models
Fully Interactive Earth System Model
MAP Modeling Environment Development Path
Knights of theNASA Earth Science Community
“The Holy Grail”
Don’s Vision