The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP): Enabling a Weather Ready Nation
Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Updated 26 April 2017
“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”
Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to
extreme weather, water and climate events
Better forecasts and warnings Actionable environmental intelligence
Consistent products and services Connecting forecasts to decisions
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Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER
NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather- and Water-Ready Nation
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January 2016 IDSS Example: Long Island Expressway comparison to 2013
2013 Snowstorm 2016 Snowstorm
The Past With NWS Impact-Based Decision Support Services
(IDSS) 3
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What NCEP Delivers
▪ Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and Space Weather (EMC)
▪ Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations (NCO)
“Provision of Services from the Sun to the Sea” ➢ Seasonal Outlooks (CPC) ➢ El Nino – La Nina Forecast (CPC) ➢ Weather Forecasts to Day 7 (WPC) ➢ Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe
Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) (NHC, WPC, SPC)
➢ High Seas Forecasts and Warnings (OPC) ➢ Aviation Forecasts and Warnings (AWC) ➢ Solar Monitoring, Warnings and
Forecasts (SWPC)
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NCEP Central Operations Products/Services
24x7 Systems and Monitoring Support
Telecoms Support: AOMC, NEXRAD, One-NWSnet
NOAA’s IDP: MRMS, MADIS, VLab, NOMADS, MAG, NIDS
High Performance Computing: WCOSS
International & Domestic Data Exchange
Operational Model Data Ingest
Model Output: download / Graphical
AWIPS Software Development
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Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) Long-Term Sustainable Solution
“OneNWS” Network The future OneNWS network will consolidate all operational networks (OPSnet, Regional, etc.)
as a single managed network under NCEP Central Operations (NCO).
IDP Network
“Backbone”
IDP Dissemination Site NCWCP (College Park,
MD)
IDP Dissemination
Site DSRC (Boulder, CO)
Supercomputer (Reston, VA)
Supercomputer (Orlando, FL)
Future Functionality at IDP College Park and Boulder
• Weather.Gov* • SPOT* • NWSChat
* Available at IDP- College Park
Functionality in place at IDP College Park and Boulder
(as of April 2017) • NOMADS • FTPPRD • TGFTP • MADIS • MRMS • MAG • Radar Level 3 • NWSTG Switch • BUFR Migration
Tool (BMT) • NLETS • Radar Level 2 • EDIS/FTPMail • HazCollect
(Extended) • HazCollect
(Legacy) • FNMOC
• FTPPush • Global Information
Center System (GISC)
• IRIS/iNWS • GMDSS • SNOTEL • Hydometeorological
Automated Data System (HADS)
• HF-FAX • SOCKET/CMHP • NWS GIS Services • NOS Chart Tile • nowCOAST • Weather.gov • VLAB • SPOT • AOMC/EM7
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Internet CONUS WFOs
IN PROGRESS
RFCs
IN PROGRESS
CWSUs / FAA CMD
CTR IN PROGRESS
OCONUS
COMPLETE COMPLETE
External Partners
National Centers
COMPLETE
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IDP GRP OneNWS Network Implementation FY16 – FY18 – Planned CONUS Network Upgrades
IDP GRP OneNWS Network Implementation FY16 – FY18 – Status as of 4/21/2017
CONUS Upgrades IDP College Park IDP Boulder Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center WCOSS Orlando to Boulder National Water Center NSOF Fairmont CBU (NESDIS backup for
NSOF) 10 WFOs upgraded in FY16 • 81 WFOs upgraded in FY17 as of
04/21/2017
OCONUS FY16 Upgrade capacity & diversity in Alaska
Region Upgrade capacity & diversity in Pacific
Region Disconnect legacy circuits
CONUS FY17 Plan • Upgrade as many sites as possible
with capacity and some with diversity based on budget and mission priority
• Upgrade 21 FAA CWSU sites and FAA ATCSCC pending signed IA from FAA
• Disconnect legacy circuits in FY18
LEGEND:
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Completed Upgrades (91 CONUS NWS Offices) Upgrades planned in FY17Q3 (17 NWS Offices)
Upgrades planned in FY17Q4 (16 NWS Offices)
Current Status of Supercomputer Upgrades
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Today:
IBM/Cray XC40 integrated platform:
3,748 compute nodes per site
2.89 PFLOPS/s peak per site
8.5 PB usable storage per site
40 GB/sec max bandwidth
Coming in January 2018:
DELL will be fully integrated with current IBM/Cray platform and adds:
1,212 compute nodes per site
1.4 PFLOPS/s peak per site
5.47 PB usable storage per site
162 GB/sec max bandwidth
• Orlando, FL – Gyre/Surge
• Reston, VA – Tide/Luna
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Wav
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NAM
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GDAS
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Hurricanes
GFS GDAS
NWM HIRESW
HWRF
Current Status and Pending Model Upgrades
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Key Model Upgrades Supporting Water Program: • July 2017
• Global Forecast System • Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • National Blend of Models • Hurricane WRF
• September 2017 • Hi-Resolution Window • Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis • Global Wave Deterministic • Global Wave Ensemble • Nearshore Wave Prediction System • NAEFS
• October 2017
• National Water Model
Interactions with Air Force
AWC and SPC continue to rely on 15th Oper. Weather Squadron for short-term back-up (quarterly exercises) and on 557th WW for long-term COOP MOA renewal in progress – Target June
557th WW has provided access to weather products for AWC
forecasters
Space Weather Prediction Center The relationship between SWPC and the 557th WW continue to be very strong
and productive Appreciation for the continued support provided by the 557th WW liaison (Capt
Domm) located at SWPC in Boulder. Request renewed focus to update the long standing MOU between the two
organizations. Beginning conversations on the interest in obtaining SPADES (Satellite Product
Analysis and Distribution System) and GONG (Global Operations Network Group) data through NCO IDP.
13 COPC– May 2017
Interactions with Navy NCO receives NCODA analyses to initialize RTOFS
As part of the Navy-NOAA MOA, NCEP received NCODA source codes from NRL and is targeting late FY18 for operational implementation.
Overall communication between NCEP and NAVOCEANO has been positive.
Status on RTFOS model upgrade Around July, 2017, NCEP will upgrade to RTOFS v1.1 and GOFS V3.1 with the newly
upgrade NAVO Hycom
Status on NAEFS model NAEFS remains a two ensemble model (NCEP + CMC) FNMOC Ens. model including bias-corrected output provided via NOMADS &
FTPPRD
NCEP continues to run the HWRF across all ocean basins This season the GFDL model will be replaced with HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-
scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic) By next hurricane season JTWC will be able to initialize HMON storm runs
14 COPC– May 2017
