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The national planning picture – local plans, land supply and house building

The national planning picture: local plans, land supply and house building Matthew Spry – Senior Director, NLP

December 2014


Introduction

• Introduction

• Current issues in planning for housing

• Local Plans and housing needs

• 5 Year Housing Land Supply Update

• Implications


1. Introduction

2. Current issues in planning for housing

3. Local Plans and housing needs

4. 5 Year Supply Update

5. Implications


Current issues

• Politics

• It’s the economy, stupid

• Strategic planning to help cities grow

• Green Belt

• Garden Cities

• Perpetual revolution - changes to planning system


The politics

“we can and must choose to build a new

generation of homes for those on

ordinary salaries. Central to this is the

need for consistent and committed

action at all levels – a long term strategy

– to tackle the biggest issues of our

generation”

“ We want to help more young people

achieve the dream of home ownership

so today I can pledge we will build

100,000 homes for young, first-time

buyers…. I don’t want to see young

people locked out of home ownership

“A labour Government will make sure

that Britain builds 200,000 more homes

a year by the end of the next Parliament

so that more families can fulfil their

dream of home ownership”

“You have got to look at what is right

in your area, what would be

sacrosanct in one area won’t

necessarily be sacrosanct in another,

depending on the community and

what people feel”

Tim Farron (Liberal Democrats President) Brandon Lewis (Minister of State for Housing and Planning)

Ed Milliband David Cameron


It’s the economy, stupid

Macro growth benefits

• OBR economic growth

estimates rely on

investment in new and

existing dwellings

• 2.12 million jobs in

construction industry

• UK housing shortage is

costing consumers £4bn

each year (CBI report)

Micro growth benefits

• Local spending in shops

and services

• Driving regeneration and

affordable housing

• Local training and

apprenticeships

Addressing labour

market pressures

• three-quarters of London

businesses warn housing

supply and costs are “a

significant risk to the

capital’s economic

growth”.

• Two out of five

businesses already say

they are concerned about

the impact on their ability

to recruit and retain staff.


Strategic planning to help cities grow

• Under-bounded growers

Cambridge Northampton Norwich

Southampton Oxford Reading

Crawley

Luton


Strategic planning to help cities grow

And big cities initiate a land grab


Green Belt

• Recent changes to the Planning Practice Guidance show political baggage of Green Belt remains

• But approach remains: Paragraph 14 (footnote 9) vs. reasonable alternatives and Paras 83-85

• A matter for Plan reviews not applications/appeals

• NPPF has driven a quiet, modest rethink on Green Belt

• Almost half of LPAs in Metropolitan Green Belt around London are pursuing GB reviews

• Mayor of London has signalled need for long term review in 2050 Infrastructure Plan

• Similar story around other conurbations (e.g. Birmingham Solihull & Manchester)

• Significant land capacity in GB around stagnating settlements and under-used infrastructure – more acceptable than non-GB choices?

• Will NPPF paras 84 and 85 (“need for sustainable patterns of development”) bite?


Garden Cities

• Totemic model of development

• How realistic to deliver?

• Limited appetite for the risks

and legal barriers to delivery of

new settlements of this scale

• But…

• Clear demand for schemes to

have ‘Garden City principles’

• The existing New Towns often

have significant appetite to grow


Perpetual revolution

NPPF likely to remain, but ongoing change on the cards

Cutting red tape:

• Permitted Development rights

• Deemed discharge of planning conditions

• S.106 streamlined for small sites

• Statutory consultations

Public sector land / brownfield

Local Plan – statutory requirement?

The ‘larger than local’ vacuum?

An independent review on housing in

the UK carried out by Sir Michael Lyons

for the Labour’s Policy Review

• new generation of “urban

extensions” modelled on the post-

war new-town expansion

• Introduce a new generation of Urban

Development Corporations

• Public sector land and Council

building

• Strategic Planning


1. Introduction


3. Local Plans and Housing Needs


5. Implications


• Over 50% of LPAs do not have an

NPPF-compliant Local Plan

• A further 24% have Published /

Submitted a Plan for Examination

• Only 19% of LPAs have an NPPF

compliant plan found sound at

Examination or adopted Post NPPF

• Slow progress

• Many Local Plans still upin the air

Local Plan Progress


Meeting Objectively Assessed Needs (OAN)

“Local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the

development needs of their area;

Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs … unless any adverse impacts

of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits when

assessed against the policies in this Framework as a while; or

Specific policies in this Framework indicate development should be restricted.”

Paragraph 17 of the NPPF states that “every effort should be made objectively to

identify and then meet the housing … needs of an area”

Paragraph 47 states that “local planning authorities should use their evidence base

to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market

and affordable housing”


NPPF, PPG and Case law is defining

approach to OAN

• PPG establishes

starting point

(projections) and

upward adjustments

• Hunston and Gallagher

clarify approach

Starting Point: Government Projections

Sensitivity test for:

• Latest data

• Local demographic factors

Demographic Based Need

Uplift or adjustment required for:

• Market Signals?

• Economic/ Employment Alignment?

• Meeting affordable housing needs?

Concluded Full Objectively Assessed Needs


The OAN evidence arms race

• Evidence arms race

• Housing Market Area

• Duty to cooperate / unmet needs

• Status of projections and headship Rates

• New projs due early in 2015

• Economic forecasts

• Market signals

• Affordable housing need


OAN drives plan-preparation and 5YHLS

• Developers increasing their

involvement in Plan

Preparation

• Seeking to ensure a higher

OAN is adopted by LPAs

• Or to bring down the plan

and maintain vacuum

• Also Important in formulating

5 year supply arguments post

adoption of plans

• Once adopted – plan-led

decisions

• = significant problems for

many LPAs


Sustainability Appraisal

• An increasing Achilles heal for many plans?

• Iterative process

• Reasonable alternatives tested

• Levels of growth and distribution?

• Relationship to how needs are met across HMAs?

• Strategic planning by the back door?

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.bdforum.org/new-bdf-reports/&ei=I4-FVJPNGcauU7S3gKAF&psig=AFQjCNE7NPf8bVosV_inMLdJDWBhaJYapg&ust=1418125471993438


1. Introduction




5. Implications


Why is Five Year Land Supply important?

• 5YHLS continues to enable the release of good unallocated sites:

• If cannot demonstrate a five year supply (NPPF, para 47)

• Housing Supply policies are out of date (NPPF, para 49)

• Presumption in favour of sustainable development (NPPF, para 14)

• Permission should be granted unless adverse effects of doing so

would outweigh the benefits (but Green Belt / Green Wedges)


How are developers looking at 5YHLS?

Does the Council acknowledge a 5-year

land supply shortfall?

No Yes

Proceed to an

application before the

shortfall is taken-up by

competitors

Proceed to an

application before the

shortfall is taken-up by

competitors

Yes No

Pursue through Local

Plan process

Is there a good 5-year land supply shortfall case?

Assess the 5-year land supply position

Is the Council’s target

up-to-date and based

on an objective

assessment of need?

Has the Council applied

the correct 5% or 20%

buffer and addressed

under-supply?

Does the Council rely

on land supply that is

not deliverable?


Where is 5YHLS a big planning issue?

• Many LPAs claim to have a 5YHLS, but the following factors sometimes

mean they do not:

1. No adopted plan

2. No up to date, tested evidence on needs

3. Not taken on board neighbouring unmet need

4. Applies 5% buffer rather than 20%

5. Applies ‘Liverpool’ rather than ‘Sedgefield’

6. Supply includes sites without permission

7. Old sites with extant permission included

8. Sites with unrealistic delivery assumptions

Requirement

increases

Supply

decreases


Use Class C2

• LPAs can count Class C2 Uses (OAP & student housing), against their housing requirement. (NPPG)

• Not properly tested at appeal but should:

• Be part of OAN

• Consider gains and losses

• Consider whether housing has been released (student)

• BUT, if not included in OAN, then exclude from supply


Appeal and Court Decisions

• 5YHLS not an exact science and is a question of judgement (Cotswold DC, High

Court Decision)

• The historic time period over which to calculate undersupply is a matter of

judgement for the decision-maker (Cotswold DC, High Court Decision)

• Looking at the number of years where a Council has under/oversupplied

housing is too simplistic (Wiltshire Council, November 2013)

• The housing target used to calculate the 5YHLS is the most up to date that has

been examined in public (South Northamptonshire DC, August 2013)

• The economic downturn is not a reasonable justification for undersupplying

(Hinckley & Bosworth BC, January 2014 )

• Emerging allocations in the Local Plan can be included as part of the 5YHLS

provided they are deliverable (Teignbridge DC, September 2013)

• Windfalls are allowed in the supply calculations provided there is a robust

evidence base supporting them (Teignbridge DC, September 2013)


Appeal & Court Decisions

• Planning Inspectors have recently moved away from drawing

conclusions on a LPA’s exact 5YHLS position. Instead, they are simply

stating whether the LPA has demonstrated 5YHLS or not.

“I conclude that the Council does not have a 5 year supply and the

proposed development is necessary to meet the housing needs of the

district” (Wychavon DC, July 2014)

“I conclude that the Council is unable to demonstrate a five year supply

of deliverable housing sites” (Cotswold District Council, September

2014)

• Developers cannot necessarily rely on previous decisions need to do

the work for them as circumstances may change


1. Introduction




5. Implications


Implications

• Day to day, planning for housing over next couple of years will be dominated by Local Plans / 5YHLS

• Looking ahead, increasing focus on:

• Housing delivery trajectories

- Will large sites deliver?

- lead-in times, infrastructure timing and build rates

- Portfolio of sites to spread risk?

• Neighbourhood plans

• Larger-than-local Plans

• London and large city overspill feeding through to LP reviews


Read more / Contact

• Matthew Spry – Senior Director

• 0207 837 4477

• [email protected]

• www.nlpplanning.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.nlpplanning.com/


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