Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

The National Spatial Strategy

Minoru KIMURA

Director, General Affairs DivisionNational Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau

National Spatial Planning System

National Spatial Strategies

National Plan

Regional Plans

Plans on infrastructure development

Priority Plan for Infrastructure Dev.

Basic Plan on Transportation Policy

Basic Plans for Housing

Long-term Development plan for land improvement

Forest Improvement and Conservation Works Master Plan

Long-term Development Plan for Fishing Harbors and Fisheries

Waste Disposal Facility Dev. Plan

Metropolitan areas dev. plans

National Capital Region Dev. Plan

Kinki Region Development Plan

Chubu Region Development Plan

National Land Use Planning

National Plan

Municipal Plans

Prefectural Plans

Land Use Master Plans

Areas controlled by individual laws

City area

Agriculture area

Forest area

Natural Park area

Natural conservation area

Promotion/Development Plan for Specific Prefectures

Okinawa Promotion Basic Policy/Plan

Hokkaido Comprehensive Development Plan

Specific areas which have own promotion/development plans

Areas with special soils

Remote islands

Amami Islands

Ogasawara Islands

Snowy areas

Mountain village areas

Peninsular areas

Depopulated areas

Northern Territories adjacent area

Other plansWater Resource Development

Basic Plans

Basic Disaster Management Plan

Basic Environmental Plan

Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture and Rural Areas

Basic Plan for Fisheries

National Spatial Planning System

Planned in an integrated manner

Role of National Spatial PlanningAn engine to promote ideal national development by unifying the directions of wide-spread policies regarding spatial planning, e.g. regional development, industry, culture, tourism, transport, telecommunication, energy,

infrastructure, disaster prevention, environment, land and resources, landscape, mutual assistance community development

1

About the National Spatial Strategy (National Plan)

Based on the “National Spatial Planning Act” (Act No. 205, 1950, former “Comprehensive National Development Act” amended and renamed in 2005)

Coordinator: National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT

Plan duration: approx. 10 years

Procedures needed to finalize the National Plan:

• Asking for and reflecting opinions from the public

• Consultation with the heads of related administrative organs

• Hearing the opinions of the prefectures and designated citiesgovernment ordinance

• Studied and deliberated by the “National Land Development Council” in MLIT

• Cabinet decision

Post-creation:• After a few years later from cabinet decision, MLIT conduct a policy

assessment (policy review) based on the Policy Evaluations Act

A comprehensive and basic plan to promote the use, improvement and conservation of National Land

2

Comprehensive National Development Plan

New Comprehensive National Development

Plan

3rd Comprehensive National Development

Plan

4th Comprehensive National Development

Plan

Grand Design for the 21st Century

Cabinet Decision

Oct. 5, 1962 May 30, 1969 Nov. 4, 1977 June 30, 1987 March 31, 1998

Background

1.Transition to high growth economy

2.Overpopulation and disparity in income

3.National income-doubling plan (Pacific Belt Zone Project)

1.High growth economy2.Concentration of

population and industry in metropolitan areas

3.Advancement of information technology, globalization, and technical renovation

1.Stable economic growth

2.Signs of decentralization of population and industry

3.It became obvious that national resources and energies are limited

1.Concentration of population and various functions in Tokyo

2.Employment issues in non-metropolitan areas are more serious for reasons such as drastic structural changes in industry

3.Advancement of full-scale globalization

1.Global age (Global environmental issues, mega-competition, and exchanges with Asian nations)

2.Decreasing population and the aging society

3.Information-oriented society

Target year 1970 1985About 10 years from

1977Around 2000 2010 - 2015

Basic Objectives

Well-balanceddevelopment between regions

Creation of a richenvironment

Improvement of thegeneral livingenvironment

Formation of a multipolar country

Prepare the basics for a Multi-axial structure

Development method

Development of regional hubs

Decentralization of industry is needed to achieve the objectives of this plan. Efforts must be made to develop regional hubs, by organically relating them to and promoting interaction with the existing production mass in Tokyo and other metropolitan areas, with a new transportation and communication network. Such development shall be performed by maintaining the characteristics of the peripheral areas and achieving a chain reaction that promotes regionally balanced development.

Large-scale projectdevelopment

Promote large-scale projects by developing transportation networks, such as the Shinkansen(bullet train) and expressways, to mitigate the uneven use of land and solve problems such as overpopulation, depopulation, and regionaldisparities.

Stable settlement concept

Promote development of non-metropolitan areas while controlling the concentration of populationand industry in metropolitan areas. Make efforts to achieve a well-balanced use of the national territory while responding to the issues of overpopulation and depopulation, with the aim of creating a better living environment for citizens.

Interactive network concept

Establish a multipolar pattern territory with the following initiatives:1.Promote a

creative/innovative improvement of each area of national territory by maximizing regional characteristics

2.Develop backbone transportation, information, and communication networks nationwide in accordance with the national program or initiatives led by the national government

3.Establish various interaction opportunities through a joint effort between the national government, each regions, and private institutions.

Participation andCooperation

This plan conceives the participation of diverse entities and cooperation between regions as the basis for national and regional development.

[Four Strategies]

1.Build nature-rich residential areas (small cities, agricultural and fishing areas, hilly and mountainous areas)

2.Renovate metropolitan areas (renovation, renewal, and effective use of spheres in large cities)

3.Form regional cooperation corridors (regional partnership taking the form of axis)

4.Form international spheres of interaction on a large scale (which has global interactive functions)

National Spatial Strategy (National Plan)

2nd National Spatial Strategy (National Plan)

July 4, 2008 Aug. 14, 2015

1.Great turning point for socio-economic conditions (population decrease/aging, globalization, and development of information and communication technology)

2.Change/diversification of values of Japanese people

3.Conditions surrounding national land (single-polar single-axial land structure, etc.)

1.The current of the times and issues surrounding the national land (rapid population decrease and declining fertility rates, unprecedented aging, impending catastrophes, aging of infrastructures, etc.)

2.Change in the values of Japanese people (growing sense of “rural regression,” etc.)

3.Change in national space (increase in low-use/unused land, vacant houses, etc.)

About 10 years from 2008

About 10 years from 2015

-Construction of national land where various regional blocks develop autonomously

-Creating national land that is beautiful and comfortable to live in

Promotion of Active Interaction-led Spatial Development

[Five strategic objectives]

1.Exchange and cooperation with East Asia

2.Creation of sustainable regions

3.Creation of disaster-resilient, flexible national land

4.Management and inheritance of beautiful national land

5.Creation of regional areas based on the "new public" as an axis

Multilayered and resilient “Compact City

and Networks”

[Specific direction]1.The national land that shines

locally and acts globally (creating regional areas with diversity, etc.)

2.National land management and infrastructures that support safety and security, and economic growth

3.Participation and cooperation to support creation of national land (fostering actors and creating the society of mutual assistance)

History of the National Spatial Planning

3

Source: Data Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT, from “Prefectural Accounting” (Cabinet Office), and “Population Census”, “Population Estimates” and “Japan’s long-term statistical series” (Ministry of Internal Affaires and Communications)

Note 1: Gini coefficient is an indicator to show income or wealth distribution, which ranges from 0 (minimum inequality) to 1 (maximum). Note 2: Data on prefectural income is based on 68SNA (from 1955 to 1989) and 93SNA (from 1990).

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

1955 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 2005 2010

Great East Japan

Earthquake

（2011）

According to Gini coefficient, regional gap had declined during the rapid economic growth period (60s-70s). The gap had been on the increase around the economic bubble period, and then fell down again. It came to rise again from the beginning to mid 00s, and then reduced late 00s before/after financial crisis

Regio

nal gap

0.132（1961）

1st Oil Shock

（1973）

2nd Oil Shock

（1979）

Corruption of

“Bubble Economy”

（1991）

Great Hanshin-

Awaji Earthquake

（1995） Financial Crisis

（2008）

0.072（2013）

（Gini coefficient）

Asian Crisis

（1997）

CNDP New CNDP 3rd CNDP 4th CNDP 21GD NSS62 7769 87 98 08

Gini coefficient on the prefectural income per capita

4

Development of Express Traffic Network (As of 1965)

Source: Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT (as of 3rd March, 1965)

HighwaysShinkansen Bullet TrainsAirports with runway over 2,000m

5

Development of Express Traffic Network (As of 2018)

Source: Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT (as of 1st June, 2018)

Highways (in service)Highways (under construction)Highways (not yet project commencement)Shinkansen Bullet Trains (in service)Shinkansen Bullet Trains (on work order)Linear Shinkansen (on work order)Hub airportsOther airports with runaway(s) over 2,000m

6

Source: Long-term analysis on population distribution in Japan (National Land Agency, 1974)Note: The data from 1920 and later is based on “Population Census”, “Population Estimates” and “Population interpolation estimated from 2005

and 2010 census results” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), and “Population Projections for Japan (estimated in 2017)” (IPSS).

Long-Term Population Trends in Japan

（Year）

(2030)119.13 million

Aging rate 31.2%

(2050)101.92 million

Aging rate 37.7%

(median projections)59.72 mil. (2100)Aging rate 38.3%

(high-end projections)72.85 mil. (2100)

(low-end projections)49.06 mil. (2100)

128.06 mil. (2010)

Peak in 2008128.08 million

Aging rate 22.1%

127.09 mil.(2015)

31.28 mil. 33.30 mil.

71.99 mil.

Meiji Restoration

(1868)

Est. of Muromachi

bakufu‘(1338)

KyohoReforms

(1716-45)Est. of

Edo bakufu(1603)

End of War

(1945)

7.5 mil. 8.18 mil.12.27 mil.

Est. of Kamakura

bakufu(1185)

The total population of Japan is likely to return to the level of a century ago (around the year 1850) over the next 100 years.

This change is a very rapid decline that is unparalleled in a thousand years.

7

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

(mil.)

(%)Ageing rates of world major cities

Average life expectancy of major countries

Source: UN World Population Prospects, The 2015 Revision

1950 2015 2055 2100

Japan 62.17 83.31 88.69 93.73

Korea 47.92 81.43 88.39 93.60

China 43.39 75.43 83.49 89.94

Thailand 50.80 74.14 81.13 87.03

France 67.05 81.85 87.65 92.77

Germany 67.52 80.66 86.72 91.96

UK 69.28 80.45 86.20 91.04

USA 68.58 78.88 84.58 89.33

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0 Japan

Korea

China

Thailand

India

France

Germany

UK

USA

Ages half of those born in 2007 will reach

Japan 107

USA 104

France 104

UK 103

Source: The 100 YEAR LIFE Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott 2016Source: UN World Population Prospects, The 2015 Revision

Global Trends of Ageing

8

Demographic trends in three metropolitan areas and regional areas

9

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Exce

ss o

f in

com

ing

mig

rati

on

(1

,00

0/p

eop

le)

＋120,000 ppl

(Tokyo area)

-5,000 ppl

(Nagoya area)

-9,000 ppl

(Osaka area)

-106,000 ppl

(Regional area)

2017

Osaka area

Nagoya area

- Act on Industry Restriction in the National Capital Region

(1959-2002)

- Act on Restriction of Factories, etc. in Kinki Region

(1964-2002)

- Technopolis Act(1983-1998)

- Key Facilities’ Siting Law(1988-1998)

- Regional Core Cities Act(1992 - )

CNDP New CNDP 3rd CNDP 4th CNDP 21GD62 7769 87 98

Tokyo area

Excess of incoming migration (Tokyo area) was at peak in 1962 (390,000 people)

- New Industrial Cities Act- Act for Industrial Development in Special Areas

(1962-2001)

Regional areas

Excess of outgoing migration (regional area) was at bottom in 1961 (650,000 people)

1st oil crisis(1973)

2nd oil crisis(1979)

Bubble economy burst (1991)

Asian currency

crisis (1997)

Great East Japan Earthquake

(2011)

Great Hanshin-Awaji

earthquake (1995)

Lehman's fall (2008)

2nd NSS15

(year)

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

Source: Data prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT, based on the “Basic resident register migration report” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications).Note: The above areas are classified as follows:

Tokyo Area: Tokyo Metropolis and Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa Prefectures Nagoya Area: Gifu, Aichi, and Mie Prefectures Osaka Area: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, and Nara PrefecturesThree Metropolitan Areas: Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka Areas Regional Area: regions other than the Three Metropolitan Areas

During the period of high economic growth, the population flowed into the three metropolitan areas. The population inflow settled down around1980, but afterward it flowed into the Tokyo area up to around the economic bubble period. After the burst of the bubble economy, the outgoing migration of the Tokyo area temporality exceeded the incoming migration, but the

inflow increased again in the 2000s.

NSS08

Int’l Comparison of Population Concentration to Capital Areas

The level of population concentration to the capital area in Japan is higher compared with those of other major countries.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Comparison with Western Countries

日本（東京） 英国（ロンドン）

イタリア（ローマ） フランス（パリ）

ドイツ（ベルリン） アメリカ（ニューヨーク）

Po

pu

lati

on

in C

apit

al A

rea

/ to

tal p

op

ula

tio

n (

%)

（年）

Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 RevisionNote 1: Figures of Berlin, Seoul and Incheon are municipal populations, and those of other cities and Gyeonggi Province are regional populations.Note 2: Definition of Tokyo is based on “Kanto Metropolitan Area” of “Population Census 2005” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) which

consists of Tokyo Special Ward, Saitama, Chiba, Yokohama and Kawasaki Cities, and surrounding municipalities.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

Comparison within East Asian Countries

日本（東京） 韓国（ソウル）

＜参考＞韓国（ソウル＋インチョン＋京畿道） タイ（バンコク）

中国（北京） インドネシア（ジャカルタ）

フィリピン（マニラ）

（年）

Korea (Seoul)

Thailand (Bangkok)

Indonesia (Jakarta)

Tokyo (Japan)

Japan (Tokyo)

Korea (Seoul, Incheon

and Gyeonggi Province)

Korea (Seoul)

Japan (Tokyo)

Italy (Rome)

Germany (Berlin)

UK (London)

France (Paris)

US (New York)

Japan (Tokyo)

Korea*

China (Beijing)

Philippines (Manila) *Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province

10

Disaster risk areas and the resident population of the areas

Target disasterRisk area size

(% to national land area)Population in risk area (2010, % to total population)

Flood Approx. 20,000 km2 (5.3%) 36.71 mil. (28.6%)

Landslide disaster Approx. 59,200 km2 (15.7 %) 613,000 (4.9%)

Earthquake disaster(damage by seismic intensity) Approx. 44,300 km2 (11.7 %) 58.88 mil. (46.3%)

Earthquake disaster (damage by liquefaction) Approx. 48,700 km2 (12.9 %) 57.43 mil. (44.8%)

Tsunami disaster Approx. 19,000 km2 (5.0 %) 26.10 mil. (20.4%)

Any of the five disasters Approx. 131,400 km2 (34.8 %) 94.42 mil. (73.7%)

Note 1: Definition of the risk area of each disaster is as follows:[Flood]: In the “estimated flooded area data” in National Land Numerical Information, areas indicating a flood

depth > 0.[Landslide disaster]: In the “Landslide hazard points data” in National Land Numerical Information, areas such

as danger areas related to debris flow, landslide, and steep slope failure. The data partially includes point and line data and therefore was converted into area data based on the national average area of each point.

[Earthquake disaster (damage by seismic intensity)]: In the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, areas whose probability of being hit by earthquakes of intensity 6 or over is 25% or over.

[Earthquake disaster (damage by liquefaction)]: areas from which meshes that are academically considered to have high risks of liquefaction are extracted from the detailed topographical classification meshes and the mesh gradients in the Japan Engineering Geomorphologic Classification Map.

[Tsunami disaster]: The tsunami inundation area calculated by simple numerical calculation. Since the “tsunami inundation estimates” based on the Act on Regional Development in Tsunami Disaster are not yet set across the country, simple estimates are used instead.

Note 2: For the population in risk areas, the population in a mesh (1 km) overlapping with risk areas was extracted from the population distribution in the 2010 Census regional mesh statistics (provided by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). If a risk area boundary was present in the mesh, area-proportional distribution was used.

The disaster risk areas spread across the nation, with approx. 35% of the national land corresponding to any type of disaster risk area.

However, the population exposed to the disaster risks (2010) accounts for 70% or more of the total, which indicates a biased distribution of population in the disaster risk areas.

Superimposed map of the five disaster risk areas 11

Towards Revision/Upgrading of Monitoring Methods

Positioning by c.m. from quasi-zenith satellites

- Micro-perspective regional analysis

- Macro-perspective comparative analysis of municipalities and prefectures

- International comparison based on World Geodetic System

- Policy makingDistribution

of goods by

unmanned

aircraft

Self-

driving

Monitoring of Spatial Development

G-Space Information Centre

“Visualization of National Land Information”

Private Sector

Hazard map, etc.

Mesh data on population estimates

Data on Traffic Network

Gathering and Provision of

World Geodetic System Data

etc.

Overlaying of data

Population

mesh data, and

spatial planning

related data,

etc.

Detailed in scale of 500 m2

Local Authorities

12

Examples of the Monitoring Indicators

Focusing on the active two-way flow, convection, of people, goods, money and information arisingbetween distinctive regions. The following is the monitoring based on the occurrence and motiveforce of the convection.

Monitoring Indicators[Definition of indicator] (Source)Concept

Formation of compact city in local cities

Development of a vibrant economy and living area with a Collaborative urban area for regional hub, etc.

Strengthening the competitiveness of the transport-export industry

- Promotion of regional-oriented innovation- Fostering a town for growing entrepreneurs

Promotion of local migration or relocation, two-residence lifestyle, & living and working in two areas

Development of Tokyo metropolitan area to be a model global city to overcome competition between international cities

Number of municipalities announcing a land optimization plan[Number of municipalities that developed and announced a land optimization plan] (MLIT)

Number of areas with a cooperative center urban plan [Number of areas that formulated a cooperative center urban plan] (MIC)

Agricultural, marine products and food export[Export amounts of agricultural, marine products and food from wide area blocks] (MOF)

Number of certified projects using local resources [Number of

local resource utilization projects that were certified based on the Act on Promotion of Business Activities by Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Utilizing Local Resources]（SME）

Proportion of young generation amongst the users of The Furusato Kaiki Shien Center Proportion of young generation (30s or younger] (Furusato Kaiki Shien Center)

Global Power City Index （Institute for Urban Strategies The Mori Memorial Foundation）

124 (May. 2017)

23(Mar. 2017)

745.1 billion yen(2015)

1,677(Dec. 2016)

45.9%(2016)

Tokyo: 3rd ranking

(2016)

Establish and take advantage of Small Stations consolidating core functions

Number of small centers[The number of small centers currently established] (Cabinet Office)

1,260(Oct. 2016)

Establishment of smart wellness housing and cities in metropolitan areas

Number of UR estates working on regional medical welfare centers[Number of UR estates starting to establish regional medical welfare centers] (Urban Renaissance Agency)

47(Jan. 2016)

Current Value

13

Example of Regional Analysis by Overlaying Multiple Data/Info

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010年人口

2050年人口（推計）

2010年→2050年の倍率（右目盛り）

Population by the distances from local authorities in non-urban areas

Estimated Population

Numbers of local authorities and branches: 2,894

Facing the risk

of extinctionCertain numbers of residents may remain in central districts

In terms of ≪points per 1 km2≫, the points where the population will decrease to half or less account for 60% or more.

According to the analysis by overlaying population and urban facilities location data by 1km sq. mesh, villages located close to local authorities or their branches, or primary schools have possibilities to survive, even in non-urban areas.

⇒ Access to basic services are significant for villages to survive.

Source: “Grand Design of National Spatial Development towards 2050” (MLIT, July 2016)Note: Population data prepared from “Population Census 2010”, (Ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications) and “Population Estimation by mesh units” (MLIT). Data on zoning and locations of local authorities and branches are from “National Land Numerical Information” (MLIT), and distance from local authorities/branches to each 1km sq. mesh from “Distal Road Map” (DRM).

Rate of decrease/increase by 1 sq km mesh

Decrease 50% and more Decreaseless than

50%

In-crease

Disappear

-ance of

residents

Decrease of residents 50% and more

Nation-

wide128.06m 97.08m ▲24% 63% 19% 44% 35% 2%

Pop

ula

tio

nin

20

50

Rat

e o

f D

ecre

ase

Increase/decrease of population from 2010 to 2050

IncreaseDecrease 0% -50%Decrease 50-100%Disappearance of residents

Population in 2010 Population in 2050 (estimated)

(million)

Rate of 2050/2010 (right axis)

14

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Pop

ula

tio

nin

20

10