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A case to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi-Unit Housing Delivery model The densification of cities is a here to stay trend. It makes sense as populations grow and the utilisation of expensive public infrastructure demands that those wanting to be near jobs and their social networks are required to make changes to traditional suburban life. But is the cost and nature of multi-unit meeting what Australian households want or can afford? Its time to consider ways that future multi-unit supply may be enabled that challenges the current developer delivery model to do better or, bow to alternate providers who care. The practicalities of pushing the new urban fringe further afield are being tested as green field land in suitable locations is balanced by the demand and viability of this new stock. It is not the end of traditional detached and attached housing but those with deep interests in this market are sufficiently concerned that they are now taking future sub 100,000 new detached housing starts seriously. The housing industry’s HIA anticipates that the peak level of combined detached and multi-unit commencements of 210,000 in 2014/15 will retrace to approximately 175,000 combined starts in 2017/18. Data points to multi-unit progressively making up half of the new housing landscape. The traditional developer model dominates. Governments have been complicit in driving the cost of new multi-unit projects to new levels. Most governments have inherited financial states of affairs that have necessitated the wholesale selling of the state’s silver to balance budgets and fund pressing deficits in new infrastructure, asset maintenance and services. They have been driven to capitulate to the demands of an insatiable multi-unit development industry that presses for higher density and urban scapes that are becoming alien to Australian life. The multi-unit skyscrapers now redefining city skylines are changing the way people on the ground experience their neighbourhoods. More importantly the retail prices of urban multi-unit are becoming beyond the reach of many. Ten thousand dollars plus per M2 is the benchmark. But is a 60 square meter apartment for $600,000 the answer for future urban living? Most developers see the cost of new multi-unit simply moderated by smaller and smaller unit typographies and more density. Almost anyone can be a multi-unit developer. There are few consequences for some of the poor quality multi-unit stock now hitting the market. And designers have also taken the opportunity to weigh in with high-brow architecture that flourishes in the new pick me economy with little interest in the practicality or cost of future ownership and maintenance. Most designers get to do the concepts for new apartment developments as wild developer promises are made about a commitment to good place
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Page 1: The need to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi · 2019. 8. 2. · A case to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi-Unit Housing Delivery model The densification of cities is

AcasetodisrupttheTraditionalDeveloperMulti-UnitHousingDeliverymodel

Thedensificationofcitiesisaheretostaytrend.Itmakessenseaspopulationsgrowandtheutilisationofexpensivepublicinfrastructuredemandsthatthosewantingtobenearjobsandtheirsocialnetworksarerequiredtomakechangestotraditionalsuburbanlife.Butisthecostandnatureofmulti-unitmeetingwhatAustralianhouseholdswantorcanafford?Itstimetoconsiderwaysthatfuturemulti-unitsupplymaybeenabledthatchallengesthecurrentdeveloperdeliverymodeltodobetteror,bowtoalternateproviderswhocare.Thepracticalitiesofpushingthenewurbanfringefurtherafieldarebeingtestedasgreenfieldlandinsuitablelocationsisbalancedbythedemandandviabilityofthisnewstock.Itisnottheendoftraditionaldetachedandattachedhousingbutthosewithdeepinterestsinthismarketaresufficientlyconcernedthattheyarenowtakingfuturesub100,000newdetachedhousingstartsseriously.Thehousingindustry’sHIAanticipatesthatthepeaklevelofcombineddetachedandmulti-unitcommencementsof210,000in2014/15willretracetoapproximately175,000combinedstartsin2017/18.Datapointstomulti-unitprogressivelymakinguphalfofthenewhousinglandscape.Thetraditionaldevelopermodeldominates.Governmentshavebeencomplicitindrivingthecostofnewmulti-unitprojectstonewlevels.Mostgovernmentshaveinheritedfinancialstatesofaffairsthathavenecessitatedthewholesalesellingofthestate’ssilvertobalancebudgetsandfundpressingdeficitsinnewinfrastructure,assetmaintenanceandservices.Theyhavebeendriventocapitulatetothedemandsofaninsatiablemulti-unitdevelopmentindustrythatpressesforhigherdensityandurbanscapesthatarebecomingalientoAustralianlife.Themulti-unitskyscrapersnowredefiningcityskylinesarechangingthewaypeopleonthegroundexperiencetheirneighbourhoods.Moreimportantlytheretailpricesofurbanmulti-unitarebecomingbeyondthereachofmany.TenthousanddollarsplusperM2isthebenchmark.Butisa60squaremeterapartmentfor$600,000theanswerforfutureurbanliving?Mostdevelopersseethecostofnewmulti-unitsimplymoderatedbysmallerandsmallerunittypographiesandmoredensity.Almostanyonecanbeamulti-unitdeveloper.Therearefewconsequencesforsomeofthepoorqualitymulti-unitstocknowhittingthemarket.Anddesignershavealsotakentheopportunitytoweighinwithhigh-browarchitecturethatflourishesinthenewpickmeeconomywithlittleinterestinthepracticalityorcostoffutureownershipandmaintenance.Mostdesignersgettodotheconceptsfornewapartmentdevelopmentsaswilddeveloperpromisesaremadeaboutacommitmenttogoodplace

Page 2: The need to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi · 2019. 8. 2. · A case to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi-Unit Housing Delivery model The densification of cities is

makingandhousingaffordability.Increasinglymanynewlyconsentedapprovalswillneverbebuilt.Theyarenotviable,asconsentauthoritiesbecomedisenchantedoverthecommunityflacktheyhavetaken,oftentonoavail.Wherearethecranes,theysay?Governmentshavebecomeweddedtotheeconomicstimulusofabuoyanthousingindustryastheyfloundertorepurposethenationseconomythat,untilrecentlyhaslackedleadershipandanarrativeaboutwhatthefuturemayhold.Butthatstimulusisnowontenderhooks.Thestimulusisalsoveryexpensiveasitdrivesupthelevelofownermortgageswhilethecostofnegativelygearedinvestmentpropertyattacksthebudget,andwhentheinevitablemarketcorrectionoccursthewritedownoftheseinvestmentsisleveragedtominimisetaxorsimplyshakesthosehouseholdsjustholdingin,outofthemarket.Allthewhilethestampdutyrevenuesflowirrespectiveofanupordownmarket.Governmentsarealsoweddedtounimaginativeassetsaleandprojectformationmodels.Theyareriskadverseandtheyaretransactionsensitive.Theprobityindustryhasalottoanswerforaswell.Theyhavesoblockedupthebowelsofgovernmentthattheirabilitytoreimaginealternativehousingdeliverymodelsisconstrainedbythescarsfromtraditionaldeveloperexperiences.Surplussite,assetsalesaredrivenbyalotterywherethehighestperceivedvaluecanonlybecreatedbyatenderprocessthattestsnewpricelevels.Thisconditionisthelanguageofapropertyadvisoryandrealestateindustrythatfeedsoffclippingtheticketforeachtransactionwithnoothermotivationthan,getitwhileyoucan.Thetraditionaldevelopermodelsalsodefinehowlocalgovernmentstransactstrategiclandholdingsintheircommunities.Theydefinethetransactionalmodelsthatunderpinurbanrenewalandreshapingoldpublicandprivatehousingestatestoincreasedensity.Theresultisthatconsiderablevalueleakageoccurstotraditionaldeveloperswhowantitalltheirway.Itseemstobeagoodtimetostandbackandlookattheoptions.Someoftheseinclude;

• Re-imaginingthepotentialofadaptingthetraditionalprojecthousingindustrybusinessmodelandproducttomulti-unit,

• Consideringthepotentialofsmallerscaledmulti-unitinthesecondaryneighbourhoodcorridors,servedbylessintensetransport,butnonethelessbenefitedwithimportantsmallerscaledneighbourhoodcentresandamenities,

• Evaluatingthegrowingpotentialofthenot-for-profitsectortoexpanditssupplyfootprintintothemainstreammulti-unitmarketplace,

• Exploringnewhousingformationinnovationsthatcouldemergefromthenewcollaborativeeconomybyfacilitatingthefirstdemonstrationprojects,

• BecomingseriousaboutthepotentialoflargerscaleresidentialrentalinvestmentorganizationssimilartothoseintheUnitedStateswhoplayaprofitablebutimportantroleindeliveringefficient,wellmanagedandtenurestablemulti-unitacrossthefor-profitandnot-for-profithousingsectors.

Inallofthesescenariosgovernmentswillneedtobecomemorehandsonandoutcomesfocused.Governmentsexercisethemostpotentialtoachievemoreforless,becausetheycontrolthekeyassetsthatcouldbebetterdeployedtofacilitatealternatedeliverymodels.

Page 3: The need to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi · 2019. 8. 2. · A case to disrupt the Traditional Developer Multi-Unit Housing Delivery model The densification of cities is

Thereisalotofdiscussionaboutthepotentialforolderhouseholdstostartfreeinguptheexistingurbanhousingfootprinttocontributetonewhousingsupplies.Thisstockisripeforrecycling.Muchisover40yearsoldandunderutilised.Andevenifonly10percentoftheexisting9.5milliondwellingsinAustraliaweresuitableforsmallerscalemulti-unitredevelopment,thenayieldofatleast4timesthatnumberofdwellingscouldbebroughtintoplay.Themainbarriertothisisthatswappingoutofthesehomesandneighbourhoodsisazerosumgameforhouseholdswholookingfornew,smallermulti-unitalternativesnearby.Apartfromtheeconomics,hereareafewotherdissatisfactionsconstrainingthemove;

• Alackofchoiceandpersonalisation,• Developmentsareoftenpoorlydesignedandlackempathywiththeirlocation,• Smallerdevelopersareassociatedwithpoorqualityconstructionanddefects,• Developersarenotownersanddonotmakechoicesownersmaymakeifable,• Alldevelopmentseemstodisrupttheneighbourhoodlongerthannecessary,and• Purchasershavingtorushintobefirstservedondevelopmentswhicharestillonthe

drawingboard,withoftenyearsbeforecompletion.

Thesearenottheconditionsthatwillmotivateexistinghomeownerstotradedownandfreeupimportanturbanlandwithpotentialtobepartoffuturesupply,tomobilise.Thereareoptionstoovercomesomeofthesebarriersbutgovernmentmayneedtotonedownthenoisefromtraditionaldevelopersandgiveotheroptionssomeairtime.Ifthetraditionaldetachedhousingindustryisunableembracethenewmulti-unithousingfuture,thenotherswhomayshouldbeencouraged.Thenot-for-profithousingsectorhasexperienceinmulti-unitprojectformation,deliveryandmanagement.CommunityHousingProvidersdonotjustoperateinthesocialhousingspace;theyareattheforefrontofdeliveringhousingforkeyworkerssuchasnurses,teachers,policeandotheressentialservicemembersofthecommunity.CommunityhousingschemesareineffecttheforerunnersofthetrendsnowemerginginthecollaborativeeconomysuchasUber,AirbnbandPeertoPeerlending.

Therearemanyemergingdisruptionshappeningacrosstheeconomyascommunitiesbecomedisenchantedwithexistinginstitutionsandwhatseemtobenootherchoice.Thebanks,insurancecompanies,energyutilities,educationandhealthindustriesareallrespondingtodisruptionstotheirbusinessmodelstheydidnotseecoming10yearsago.Governmentshavehadtoshiftfromstandinginthetrencheswithlaggardindustrialbastionsofthestatusquo,torealisethattheytoohavetomovewiththetimesanddeliverabetterdealtotheirelectoralstakeholders.Theymarchtoamuchmoredynamicbeatthesedaysasnewmediaandsharperwaysofmakingthemaccountabletakehold.

Sothereisthecasetoconsideralternativedevelopermodelsinthemulti-unitfuture.Thisconversationisnotananti-capitalistrant.Iamallforprofitmotivatedbusiness,butonlywhenthosebusinesseshaverecalibratedjustlikeotherstodeliverabetterdealtotheircustomers,first.And,governmentscanhelpbuyrecalibratinghowtheysellthesilver.

DavidChandlerOAMConstructionandHousingIndustryPractitionerwww.davidchandler.com.auNovember2015


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