THE NETHERLANDS LEAP STUDY TOUR PRESENTATION

BY

ALMAZ DEMESSIE

SENIOR AGROMETEOROLOGICAL EXPERT

Government of Ethiopia and World Food Programme (WFP)

STUDY TOUR to the NETHERLANDS

5-13 June 2010

As indicated in GoE and WFP study tour programdocument the study tour is part of the capacitybuilding component of the GFDRR sponsored LEAPproject.

LEAP is an innovative project that links drought andflood monitoring and early warning with thegovernment managed risk management frameworkin Ethiopia.

It allows the government action in to proactivelymanaging risk, rather than simply responding todisasters.

LEAP also acts as a tool to trigger donor contingency finance to allow rapid and predictable scale up of the national productive safety net program (PSNP).

During the current phase, LEAP software is being further developed through the introduction of a flood and a pastoralist index.

Moreover, GoE capacity is being developed in order to manage drought and flood risks.

The study tour will contribute to the development of next LEAP phase, enabling the GoE to define future strategy and partnerships.

The DRM approach relies heavily on the data

generated by sectors and departments such as

The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR);

The National Meteorological Agency (NMA);

The MoARD and other agencies.

The DRM approach relies heavily on the data generated by sectors and departments such as

The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR);

The National Meteorological Agency (NMA);

The MoARD and other agencies.

Hence, the above mention relevant institutions participatedin the Netherlands LEAP study tour to improve knowledgeand understanding concerning crop, flood, and rangelandmonitoring techniques using remote sensing as well as toforage potential partnerships for further support indeveloping LEAP and the GoE capacity in managingLEAP.

The World Food Programme (WFP), the DRMFSS,

the NMA and Ethiopian Research Institute

undertook the study tour to five different

institutions namely:

Earth Environment Monitoring (EARS) in Delft,

Rotterdam flood control;

ITC- University of Twente;

Wageningen University; and

Wageningen University – Water Watch Institute.

Objectives of the

study tour

To improve knowledge and understanding of key GoE staffs in regards to crop, flood and rangeland mentoring techniques using remote sensing

To form potential partnerships for further support in developing LEAP and the GoE’scapacity in managing LEAP.

Monday 07 June 2010

Visit EARS high-tech

Environment and Remote Sensing

Company

The remote sensing companyinvolved in modeling of physicalprocesses, software and hardwaredevelopment including developmentof innovative applications like aninteresting drought micro-insurancemechanism based on the satellitedetected relative globalevapotranspiration as indicator fordrought.

EARS …Contd

Major activities of the company as follows:-

Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System Water Cycle Data from Meteosat

RIVER FLOW FORECASTING(in cooperation with UNESCO-IHE)

Besides, presentation and discussion held on energy water balance monitoring system, crop yield and rangeland forecasting and drought micro insurance.

EARS …Contd

EARS activities are carried out in two daughter companies i.e.

- EARS Earth Environment Monitoring (EARS-E2M) and

- EARS Plant photosynthesis Monitoring (EARS-P2M)

The current projects of EARS

Food Early Solutions for Africa-Micro Insurance(FESA)

The objectives of the project are to develop a Meteosat baseddrought micro-insurance system able to reach every farmer inAfrica.

The parameters to generate crop yield estimates are 28 yearsof Meteosat data in particular temperature, radiation andevapotranspiration. Relative evapotranspiration (RE) andrelative yield (RY) used as indicators for drought and cropfailure.

The current projects of EARS … Contd

Pasture monitoring in Mongolia

The objective is to implement a Remote Sensing based Decision Support System for pastureland Management in order to provide decision makers with day-by-day, spatially continuous information or grazing condition.

It will include drought, biomass and carrying capacity maps in summer, and snow depth and presence of an ice layer in winter. Based on this information the central and local government may improve its policy and timely decision on cattle allocation.

The current projects of EARS … Contd

Food Assessment by Satellite Technology (FAST) crop yield forecasting in the framework of the GMES project

FAST products and crop yield early warning bulletins created based on Meteosat data and provided to FAO-GIEWS and WFP-VAM.

The FAST early warning products provided :

FAST 1: Rainfall during the growing season

FAST 2: Relative evapotranspiration during the growing season

FAST 3: Difference evapotranspiration during the growing season

FAST 4: Forecasted end of season crop relative yield

FAST 5: Forecasted end of season difference yield

The current projects of EARS … Contd

High water and drought monitoring for water boards

Which carried out in the framework of the program “Space for Geo-information”? In this project, satellite derived precipitation and MSG derived actual evapotranspiration are combined to water excess and water shortage data products for Dutch Water Boards.

The current projects of EARS … Contd

Yellow River water resources monitoring and flow forecasting

The project objective is to implement a Satellite based flow forecasting system in upper Yellow River and in the Weihe tributary. Besides the flow forecasting system also a satellite based drought monitoring system is established for the entire basin

EARS … Contd

Identified potential areas of collaboration were-

• The field verification of EARS yield and range land forecasting products

• Incorporation of the flood model into the LEAP

• Use of the drought micro insurance model currently developed in Ethiopia in the future.

Introduction about the system given by the

concerned personnel after that we visited the flood

barrier and the construction around the barrier. The

important thing what we learn from the system is

how hardworking they are and their efforts to

protect their area with their effective Early

Warning System.

Different scientists of which covered introduction about ITC by Tom Veldkampand the following topics:

• Drought and flood monitoring, assessment and modeling;

• water balance and hydrological cycle;

• Soil moisture determination by using satellite data

• About GEONET cast toolbox for the estimation of rainfall, vegetation cove, land degradation, geo disasters, etc

ITC … Contd

Finally, there was a discussion about the futureconditions of training and capacity buildingopportunities in the above-mentioned areas. Theyhave two systems for short-term training one isITC full time training it costs € 900 and the otherone is tailor made training it is also costs € 500.With regard to determining the nature ofcollaboration, Mr. Elliot from WFP assigned toprepare concept note on behalf of the Governmentof Ethiopian mission for looking at areas ofpotential collaboration with the ITC- Universityof Twente that also strengthen the LEAP products.

Introduction to WageningenUniversity by the director of ALTERA followed by paper presentation by different staffs of Alterra as follows:-

About the MARSOP project:

Monitoring weather and crop yield and its history i.e.

in 1988 Initiative by European Commission:

JRC, DG_Agric, Eurostat

1989-1998 Agriculture Project

= Pilot project f. Remote Sensing Applied to Agric Statistics

Since 1993 called MARS Project

= Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing

= Monitoring Agricultural Resources

2000-2013 MARSOP1, 2, 3 = MARS Operations

WageningenUniversity ALTERA … Contd

Details of the bulletin content discussed and areas of interest for MARS global services including data and methods such as-

Sources of data

• Weather from station

• Weather from ECMWF

• Soil map

• Land cover/ land use

• Crop type and calendar

• NOAA and SPOT-VGT

• Regional yield statistics

WageningenUniversity ALTERA … Contd

Methods

• Weather monitoring

• CGMS arable crop yield model

• GWSI model

• RS based yield estimates

WageningenUniversity ALTERA … Contd

Complexity Horn of Africa:

• varying number of seasons,

• Large local variation in rainfall

• Average crop calendar and crop growth duration is not sufficient to catch reality

WageningenUniversity ALTERA … Contd

Global Water

Satisfaction Index with

some examples

of Ethiopia

The topic of presentation focuses on Crop Water Satisfaction Index, ECMWF analysis data, Water retention capacity, Rooting depth and Crop mask grain maize

Importance of GWSI

• Useful for detecting hot spots with extreme conditions worldwide

• Framework, tools and db structure also useful for national applications, only needs more detailed data

• Currently developing new version with more detailed data and better estimation of start of season

• Demo current version running on 1 degree climatic grid

The introduction remark to the institution made by Director of Water Watch

Professor at Delft University Water Resources Management and RS Specialist. In his topic mainly focuses on

Quantitative information and operational monitoring of water resources and crop growth (incl. pastures) from satellite data

• Actual evapotranspiration

• Precipitation

• Soil moisture

• Biomass production

• Floods

• Drought

Water Watch … Contd

Where in Ethiopia?

• Actual evapotranspiration in the Baro – Akobobasins

• Participatory ground water management in Ziwaybasin

• Land and water conditions for assessing the agricultural potential in the Tana – Beles Growth Corridor

• A scoping study on RS in decision support systems in Nile Basin water management

• Best practices, weaknesses and opportunities for Large Scale Irrigation practices in the Nile Basin

• Establishment of a flood monitoring system in the Nile basin

• Water balance Lake Tana Basin

Water Watch … Contd

There was a discussion on

• Energy and water balance modeling

• Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL)

Water Watch … Contd

The Institute has developed a number of interesting toolboxes such as:-

• METEOLOK for Agro meteorology, which combines remote sensing data with meteorological data in order to derive the average air temperature using energy and water balance modeling. The spatial resolution is of 250 meters

• ETLOOK for the surface energy balance to calculate crop potential;

• GLOBFLOOD for floods across the globe but only using low resolution hence could not pick Ethiopian floods;

• DROUGHTLOOK for droughts mainly for China;

• CROPLOOK for crop harvest potential forecasting

• GROUNDBUCK for the ground water estimation for Europe;

ITC (University of Twente)

The delegation identified the following potential areas of collaboration:

• Establishment of a GEONET Cast infrastructure in Ethiopia;

• Improvement of the disaster risk monitoring (drought monitoring, flood modelling, crop monitoring, fire hazard monitoring)

• Improvement of the quality/timeliness of weather data

• Land cover mapping in relation to climate change

• Capacity Building

Alterra(University of Wegeningen)

The following areas of interests identified:

• Climate change studies ( better understand the effects of climate change on the availability of water resources, rainfall monitoring, agricultural production) in the Horn of Africa and further strengthen the implementation of Ethiopia's National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

Alterra (University of Wegeningen) …Contd

• Water resources management: Opportunities for collaborating in the implementation /scale up of land/water resources participatory management processes can be explored. Linkages with MERET considered.

Alterra(University of Wegeningen) … Contd

• Crop monitoring (in particular, the algorithms to determine the optimal planting decades) Peter Heofsloot will be the focal point for WFP and the GoE in the follow up process with Alterra.

LEAP special training

Four members of the mission, three from DRMFSS and one from Research attended LEAP special training

Objectives:

To train GoE technical staff on

• the use and configuration of LEAP server, including data acquisition and processing of raw remote sensing data;

• the processing, interpretation and analysis of LEAP outputs data;

• LEAP software troubleshooting, problem resolution and general technical backstopping.

LEAP special training

… Contd

The first agenda of the discussion was about the brief introduction of LEAP made by the soft ware developer: Peter Hoesfloot followed by practicing some major practical exercises, instructed by Peter Hoefsloot. A first list of activities for LEAP software refinement and further development also compiled together with the GoE representatives. The list will integrate LEAP 2010-2011 work plan.

There was a meeting with Michel Massart(JRC) and his collogue

Objective:

to discuss potential collaboration between WFP, GoEand JRC in support of the Ethiopian Risk Management Framework

meeting with

JRC … Contd

The following areas for possible future collaborations were identified:

• Flood index development for LEAP (Ad de Roo, JRC) –Alternative approach to MODIS developed by ITHACA

• HEA validation exercise and integration into LEAP

• Improvement of the LEAP data inputs, i.e. provision of remote sensing imagery through ESA.

In the afternoon, there was a

discussion on the way forward for

further development and implementation

of LEAP software

Points of the way forward was as follows

• Updating some existing elements of LEAP: such as modifying Ethiopia map as per the recent changes; Strengthening data set that enable LEAP to perform Climate Change studies; Incorporate ERA40 regenerated dataset for the period 1960-2000 in to existing LEAP dataset which is from 1995-2010; setting appropriate thresholds; considering some important perennial crops like coffee; integrating LEAP and LIAS; Integrating the different available methods of forage production and production deviation are the major ones.HEA validation exercise and integration into LEAP

Points of the way forward …

Contd

• Validation and expansion of LEAP’ application: by using ground truth; by comparing LEAP output with EARS, WaterWach and others; Generate Intermediate and Final outputs using seasonal forecasts (NMA, IRI), Predicting crop and rangeland production variation based on prediction of climate variability (inclusion of Climate Change database 1980-2050), Compare forage production and production deviation outputs of LEAP with ground generated data/info.

Points of the way forward …

Contd

Server

• Server needs to be installed in Addis

• Then (remotely from Amsterdam) Peter will install the server side software

• Server in Amsterdam will provide backup in case server in Addis fails.

Points of the way forward …

Contd

. Manual and Tutorial improvements

Other related activities by

• NMA will provide meteorological data throughout the year. Complete records and checked.

• Update of Kc and Ky values for all crops from Ethiopian research stations (Teff; EIAR)

• Update the database at the Woreda level (change zonal spreadsheet to Woreda spreadsheet).

THANK YOU