The New Hampshire Primary: What it means

to the state and the nation

Library and Archives of NH’s Political Tradition

Ross Gittell, Associate Professor, UNHBrian Gottlob, President, PolEcon Research

The benefits of the NH Primary accrue to the state and to the nation

• Political and social benefits for the state and nation as the primary engages a high percentage of citizens

• NH citizens’ personal contact with the candidates and focused discussion of issues influences election outcome

• Candidates get tested and learn... come away stronger candidates

• Economic benefits for the state and its citizens via spending and jobs and media exposure

Most important are the benefits to the nation of having an active and engaged electorate test the qualifications of candidates….

In 2000, national and international media truly acknowledged the value of NH’s role in the political process

The national media messages about the New Hampshire primary ….1992, 1996 and 2000

• 1992: “The worst economy in the country”

• 1996: “Home of retail politics”, “Politically atypical”, and “Traditional”

• 2000: ”Retail Politics”, “Serious voting electorate”, “Informed”, and “Crucial”

NH was still portrayed as “different”, but in 2000, it was portrayed as more of a virtue

Top Media Impressions (000's)

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Bitter cold

Technology Leader

Informed Electorate

Crucial

Serious Electorate

Traditional

Politically Atypical

Home of Retail Politics

1996 2000

Full slates for both Democrats and Republicans meant more exposure for NH Primary in 2000 than in 1996

Exposure by month, in impressions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

October November December January February MarchMonth

Su

m o

f im

pre

ssio

ns (

in m

illio

ns)

1996 Primary (held 2/21/96)

2000 Primary (held 2/1/00)

The First-in-the-Nation Primary

1,991,458

18,089,729

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

1996 2000

Potential readers exposed to the message that NH deserves its status as "First in the Nation"

Media stories about NH voters engagement reflected reality, not just image

% of Voting Age Citizens

9%

10%

13%

68%

74%

75%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Made a Campaign Contribution

Shook hands

Attended Campaign Event

Watched One or More Debate

Paid "Some" or " A lot of" attention

Voted in Primary

UNH Survey Center. July, 2000

From the June 15, 1999 New York Timesdescribing New Hampshire as a state with: “a justifiable reputation for being a state with informed voters who ask informed questions”

Quotes of Note:

Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2000

• “In 2000 the word got out….New Hampshire has a strong economy for high-tech ventures and is an attractive place for start-up businesses”

• “New Hampshire has an active and well-informed electorate…the highest level of involvement among the 2000 presidential nominating contests”

Economic Impacts

The first-in-nation primary benefits some industries in NH but the overall impact is often exaggerated by outsiders…it is about .6 of 1% of the state’s gsp in the peak year of primary activity

The economic impact of the 2000 primary was 50% greater than the impact of the 1996 primary

$210

$306

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

1996 2000

Increased media coverage was a big reason for expenditure increases (campaign spending rose only modestly)

370

593

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 2000

Number of reporters covering the NH Primary

How we produced our economic estimates

• Travel, tourism, and tax data• Federal Election Commission campaign

expenditure reports• Media content analysis• Interviews with businesses and with

campaign workers• Employed recognized econometric

methods and models

Most of the economic impacts occurred in the year preceding the primary

$231

$33$37

$5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Timing of Economic Impacts ($million)

Imputed MediaValue ('96-'99)March '96-Feb.'99

Imputed MediaValue ('99-'00)March '99-Feb. '00

Overview of Economic Impacts of the New Hampshire Primary(March 1, 1999 - Feb. 28, 2000)

Media and Visitor Spending $71 million

Direct CampaignSpending $12 million

Total Direct Spending $83 million

Total Spending $231 million(Direct,Indirect & Induced)

Value ofBusiness DevelopmentExposure$26.4 million

Total Economic Benefits - $231 million sales and 2,248 jobs (March 1, 1999-Feb. 28, 2000) - $6.6 million tourism promotion

$264 Million - $26.4 million business development -

Value ofTourism PromotionExposure$6.6 million

The lodging, restaurant, media, communications, and trans. industries, along with households receive the greatest benefits

Sales ($ millions)

$37

$26

$25

$18

$12

$8

$3

$1

$57

$43

$33

$29

$27

$14

$6

$3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Households*

Hotel/Rest.

Comm/Trans

Services

Retail

F.I.R.E

Const.

Manuf.

2000

1996

* Households refers to payments for labor (wages)

Total Primary spending of $231 million results in over 2,200 jobs

$83

1,511$31

$116 255

467

Spending ($million) Jobs

Induced

Indirect

Direct

$231 2,248

Half of the jobs created are in the lodging and restaurant industries

Full-Time Equivalent Jobs Resulting from Primary

12

59

59

113

187

175

428

1,187

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Manuf.

Const.

F.I.R.E.

Comm/Trans/Util.

Retail

Gov.

Services

Lodging/Rest.

Media Coverage and Advertising Equivalency

The First-in-the-Nation primary is the #1 media opportunity in NH… the word gets about about candidates, the issues and about NH

Why media coverage is important

• An audience of 222 million people worldwide were exposed to stories about NH via media coverage of the primary during primary

Specific Media Data

• Top media outlets covering the Primary: – ABC World News This Morning– Business Week– CNBC-TV– CNN - Crossfire– Kansas City Star– London Free Press– Charleston Post & Courier– Chicago Sun Times– CNN– Raleigh News and Observer

Specific Media Data

• Most positive media outlets: – Boston Globe– USA Today– Atlanta Journal and Constitution– LA Times– ABC– Dallas Morning News– Washington Post– NY Times ABC World News This

Morning– Business Week– CNBC-TV

Specific Media Data

• Most negative media outlets: – San Francisco Chronicle– Boston Herald– Orlando Sentinel– Indianapolis Star– Denver Post– Tampa Tribune– Times-Picayune– Richmond Times-Dispatch– San Francisco Examiner– Rock Hill (SC) Herald

The positive articles translate into positive impression of NH for 22 million people (up from 15 million in ‘96)

• Positive impression of the state for 22 million

• Research shows that 3% of those positively exposed will eventually visit

• Thus, news coverage of the primary will contribute to 660,000 visits to NH (3% of 22 million)

• Each $10 of advertising by NH attracts 1 visitor. Thus 660,000 visits = $6.6 million in advertising value

The impact of media coverage on tourism

220 million media impressions

22 million positive impressions

660,000 non-primary visits(3% of 22 million)

$6.6 million in tourismadvertising equivalency @ $10/visitor

(about twice NH’s tourismadvertising budget)

International media coverage also impacts business development

660,000 visits to NH (3% of 22 million)

13,200 corporate decision- makers and entrep. (2% of 660,000 - actual US figure is 11%)

132 new businesswith avg. 20 emp. per business= 2,640 employees

@ $10,000 subsidy/business development value per emp.= $26,400,000

132 new businesses(1% of 13,200 or .0002 of all visits)

Let’s keep NH First....

• There is strong interest & support for a collaborative effort to keep NH First-in-the-Nation ...with industry leaders, public officials and others..

Why NH should be First...

– we in NH take our role very seriously…we know that every vote always counts

– there are national benefits from an engaged & informed electorate in NH

– our small scale and strong tradition of participation and engagement ensures that $ and media do not determine our primary election outcomes

– ideas and voter contact are most important in NH

– “underdogs” still have a chance in NH– we are not in it for the money…but it helps

particular sectors of the economy