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The New Normal

David J. LeRoyJudith M. LeRoy

For Public Television

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Was This Our Dad? “Old Values?”

A man should work. A man should maintain his

property. A man should know his

tools, and how to use them.

A man should meet his obligations.

A man should stand on his own two feet.

A man shouldn’t complain.

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The Law of Disruption

“technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally”

It sometimes takes generations to work things out.

Larry Downes The Laws of Disruption

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The New Normal -- Economics

New economic facts of life Employer/employee assumptions Toxic tsunamis – foreclosures Pensions, retirement, safety nets Unemployment at new highs.

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The New Normal -- Media

Newspapers are dire straits And magazines… Remember the CD --OMG Susan Boyle And the Walkman replaced by MP3 etc And now the Internet from dial up to

ALWAYS ON!!!

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The New Normal -- Convergence

Television would be wiped out like radio Everything up on the cloud… Oops Television viewing has increased and

continues to grow… It was not a zero sum game people just

add more media minutes to their day

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The New Normal -- Broadcasting

Almost nine out of ten homes are wired

The number of available channels are in the hundreds

Legacy channels have lost audience And soon we will have Internet

streaming May you live in interesting times

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The New Normal – Tale of 2 Tails

Lot of the viewing disappeared into the long tail…

But remember there is also a fat tail where the networks still get lots of viewing

Now for a new normal from ESPN … you can’t make this stuff up.

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The New Normal – Public Media

Now for Public Television… eroding cumes, eroding GRPs, eroding member base…

Do we need hits like the Antiques Roadshow? 2/3 only view it, nothing else

The “core” that views prime time has about 15 hours of programming a week.

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The Old Mechanical Model

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The New Normal – Program Norms

Consider how much TV programming has changed in the last 20 years.

Discovery now has to edit the BBC material because its narrative arcs are too long. The new Sherlock anyone?

The core now spends less time with PTV than a generation ago (25% vs 12% of their viewing time).

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The New Normal

Pledge drives… have they, perhaps, worn a bit thin?

Which of our assumptions about the audience and members are still true?

If you keep doing what your doing, you’ll keep getting what you been getting

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Last Touch Point Fallacy

We often think the last touch point before pledging is the cause of the behavior

The law of disruption at work

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Working with the New Normal

How do we strategize for the new normal?

How has the new normal affected viewing and fundraising, especially pledge?

How do we test our assumptions? That’s what this meeting is all about.

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fin