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June 2020 Research Report The Next Normal Real estate in a post-COVID world
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Page 1: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

June 2020

Research Report

The Next Normal Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 2: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

The COVID-19 pandemic has disordered economies and businesses across the world. In India, while the pandemic has affected multiple sectors, its impact on the manufacturing and services sector is the most, unlike the earlier three recessionary phases that led to softening of agricultural growth. Noted analysts and thinkers are predicting a paradigm shift in the way different stakeholders will perceive real estate in times to come. While there is surely a change in perception and this sudden change poses challenges, it also provides opportunities to innovate and reinvent.

Today there is greater emphasis on being asset light, though this trend may see a gradual decline once the impact of the pandemic subsides. The new chapter of growth will be charted basis the renewed demand in the next normal.

Given the context, we draw inspiration from the famous quote of Charles Darwin “It is not the strongest species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is one that is most adaptable to change.”

In the last decade, India’s real estate sector has experienced several disruptions led by technology and changing preferences. However, these disruptions have only expanded the gamut of real estate offerings while redefining the way we live and work. On one hand, consolidation of the residential market is likely to further gain momentum with strong emphasis on credibility and financial strength and on the other, de-densification and splitting up of offices are likely to gain centre stage. We are seeing fast-paced adoption of technology and artificial intelligence and these are most likely to be the new catalysts of growth in the next normal. The focus on health, sustainability and wellness is also seeing a renewed vigour and is becoming the leitmotif across asset classes.

As we reopen our businesses in a staggered manner, let us brace ourselves to the short-term jolts and be ready to embrace the impending prospects of growth in the medium to long term. Real estate as an asset class is here to stay, however reinvention is important to remain relevant in the next normal world.

Take care and stay safe,

Ramesh NairCEO & Country Head, India, [email protected]

2The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 3: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

3The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

The economic impactNationwide lockdowns were a necessary intervention to limit the spread of the virus and save human lives, but the cost to the world economy has been devastating

3The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 4: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

4The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

• Global economy was sluggish in 2019• Pandemic created a supply and demand shock

exacerbating the problems• Lockdowns projected to shrink the global economy

considerably - Likely that in 2020, global economy will experience its

worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the financial crisis in 2007-08

• Partial recovery projected for 2021; assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and restrictions can be gradually relaxed

• In case, the pandemic and containment measures last longer, growth outcomes expected to be much worse

Global recession, a foregone conclusion

Growth of emerging economies

Source: World Bank

Source: World Bank

Source: World Bank

Note: GDP growth rates for India are on a financial year basis. Growth rates for other countries are on a calendar year basis.

• Several advanced economies experiencing widespread outbreak of COVID-19

• Advanced economies projected to contract by 7.0 percent in 2020 and grow 3.9 percent in 2021

• Emerging economies expected to contract by 2.5 percent in 2020 and grow 4.6 percent in 2021

- While China is forecasted to grow at a modest rate of 1.0 percent in 2020, India is expected to witness a contraction in output in 2020.

Growth of global economy

Growth of advanced economies

2020F

-5.2

2019

2.4

2021F

4.2

2019

1.62020F

-7.0

2021F

3.9

USA 2.34.0-6.1

2019 2021F2020F

China 6.16.91.0

Russia 1.32.7-6.0

2019

3.52020F

-2.52021F

4.6

India could face the worst recession till dateThe situation is very dynamic and several organisations like CRISIL, Goldman Sachs and ICRA have sharply cut India’s GDP growth forecasts. The Indian economy could shrink by as much as 5%

in 2020

2019 2021F2020F

South Africa

0.22.9-7.1

India 4.23.1-3.2

Brazil 1.12.2-8.0

Japan 0.72.5-6.1

Euro Area

1.24.5-9.1

Page 5: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

5The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

India’s economic woes to continue• Indian economy was already grappling with challenges before the pandemic hit

• GDP growth has been on a declining trend since the demonetisation move in 2016-17

• COVID-19 pandemic brings in fresh challenges; supply chains disrupted, demand shock, external trade hit

• Further impaired economic growth

• Estimated growth of 4.2% in FY 2019-20; growth of 3.1% in Jan-March 2020

Consumer confidence

Jul-1995.7*May-19

97.3*Sep-19

89.4*

Nov-1985.7* Jan-20

83.7*

Mar-2085.6* May-20

63.7*

Source: RBINote: *CSI is calculated on the basis of General Economic Situation, Employment Scenario, Price Level, Household Income and Overall Spending

• Consumer confidence, as measured by the current situation index (CSI), collapsed in May 2020 touching a historic low

GDP growth

Source: RBI, World Bank, JLL Research

GDP

grow

th (%

)

2007-08

7.66%

4.20%

3.10%

6.12%7.04%

8.26%8.00%

7.41%6.39%

5.46%

5.24%

8.50%7.86%

3.09% Financial Crisis

Demonetisation

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2019-202018-19 2020-21 2021-22F

Euro Crisis

COVID-19-3.20%

Page 6: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

6The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Source: JLL Research

• Economic activity taking a massive hit due to the lockdown• Uncertainty regarding jobs and salary cuts; consumer confidence could touch further lows• Three major contributors to GDP - consumption, investments and exports (to COVID-19 infected nations) to be affected • Most sectors have been impacted adversely; real estate and construction amongst the severely impacted sectors

Impact on various sectors

Entertainment, Gems & Jewellery, Tourism, Hospitality, Retail, Real Estate, Construction, Aviation, F&B

Banking, Electronics, Textiles and Leather, Metals, Cement

FMCG, Pharmaceuticals, Healthcare, Education, E-commerce

Severe impact

High impact

Moderate impact

Source: JLL Research

6The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 7: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

7The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Relief measures to cushion the impact to the economy

• India announced a COVID-19 package to the tune of ~USD 270 billion (10% of GDP)• The package consists of two components

USD 50 billion liquidity package on March 27

• Expansion of liquidity up to USD 50 billion through long-term repo operations, relaxation in cash reserve ratio (CRR) and marginal standing facility for overnight borrowings

• 75 basis points cut in policy repo rate to 4.40 % (lower than 2009 level of 4.75%)

• Three month moratorium on term loans

USD 13 billion package on April 17

• Targeted long term repo operations (LTROs) to the tune of approximately USD 6.5 billion with funds to be invested in investment grade bonds, commercial paper and non-convertible debentures of NBFCs (shadow banking).

• Refinancing facilities of about USD 6.5 billion to National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) and the National Housing Bank (NHB). Of this, 20% has been allocated to NHB, which will provide the much needed liquidity to housing finance companies

USD 23 billion fiscal relief package on March 26 • Free insurance cover for medical staff• Free food and grains for urban and rural poor for the next

three months• Cash transfers to senior citizens, women and farmers.• Provident fund contributions for low wage workers and

funds for 3.5 million registered construction workers

Measures targeted towards creating a ‘Self-Reliant India’ through liquidity infusion, fiscal support and reform-led investments • Requisite credit and funding support to the tune of ~USD

50 billion to revitalize Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)

• Liquidity infusion of ~USD 10 billion for Non-Banking Financial Company / Housing Finance Company / Micro Finance Institution (NBFCs/HFCs/MFIs)

• Liquidity injection of ~USD 12 billion for power distribution companies

• Reduction in Tax Deducted At Source / Tax Collected At Source (TDS/TCS) rates to improve liquidity

• Free food grains supply to migrants for two months• Concessional credit support to 25 million farmers under

Kisan Credit Card Scheme• Creation of Agriculture Infrastructure Fund to augment farm-

gate infrastructure such as cold chain and storage facilities• Amendments to Essential Commodities Act to enable better

price realization for farmers• Introduction of commercial mining in the Coal sector• Increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit in defence

manufacturing raised from 49% to 74%• Initiatives to make India a global hub for aircraft

maintenance, repair and overhaul• Additional fund allocation of ~USD 5.4 billion under

MGNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) to boost employment

Central Bank’s liquidity measures Central Government’s relief measures

Further relaxations on May 22

• 40 basis points cut in repo rate to 4.00%

• 40 basis points cut in reverse repo rate to 3.35% (will disincentivise banks to park the surplus money with RBI)

• Moratorium on term loans extended by three months

• Commercial banks allowed to raise group exposure limit from 25% to 30%

Page 8: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

8The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

However, this does not address all the concerns of the stakeholders within the real estate sector. Given the criticality of the sector to overall economic growth and its employment generating potential, a sector specific growth package would have gone a long way in reviving the economy. One time restructuring of loans is the need of the hour for the real estate sector

Benefits for the Real estate sector

Support to MSMEs will help revitalise them, aid in economic recovery through employment generation. This will have a positive impact in enhancing consumer sentiment and help suppliers of key raw materials such as cement, steel etc., thus have an important bearing on real estate

Provident fund contribution for low wage workers and funds for 3.5 million registered construction workers will directly benefit the realty sector

Easing of liquidity is likely to help the NBFCs and HFCs to support the real estate sector through restructuring of existing loans and resetting of repayment schedules

Affordable rental accommodation scheme for migrant workers and urban poor will increase availability of organised housing facilities. This will lead to decongestion of urban spaces by reducing unauthorized occupancy & encroachment and thus, facilitate better town planning

Auction of airports and additional investment by private players likely to open up new business opportunities for real estate in the areas of retail, office space and logistics

Creation of GIS based database of industrial land bank availability will act as an important tool to identify and aid investment in new land parcels

Agri Infrastructure Fund for farm-gate infrastructure will provide a boost to the warehousing sector

Extension of CLSS in mid segment coupled with attractive mortgage rates will improve consumer sentiments and boost demand, mainly in affordable and mid segments

Invocation of ‘force majeure’ will give required elbow room to developers to complete construction

Additionally, the lowering of repo rates and the central bank’s announcement with respect to moratorium on loan instalments and relaxation of NPA classification norms will benefit both homebuyers and developers

Page 9: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

9The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

OfficeThe RE impact

Page 10: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

10The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

The office real estate market was growing at a remarkable pace. The COVID - 19 pandemic halted the growth momentum

markable

Page 11: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

11The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

What happened in March 2020?

Office net absorption

Source: JLL Research

Deals in final stages of

negotiation deferredExpansion plans

of companies took a backseat

Focus on re-negotiation of

contracts

Co-working operators

faced major disruptions

Increased adoption of technology and

virtualisation of processes

Fit-outs were delayed because of supply chain

issues

Office market disrupted with the virus spreading its

pangs

Nationwide lockdown

commenced on March 25

World’s largest remote working

experiment; work-from-home practices initiated

Businesses pressed ‘pause’ on real estate

decisions

Construction activity came to a standstill

Net absorption of office spaces

took a hit

Q1 2019

million sq ft12.3

Q1 2020

million sq ft8.6

30%

Once the spread of the virus intensified

11The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 12: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

12The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

In the short-term, renegotiation of contracts between landlords and occupiers is the underlying trend in the office real estate market

negotiate

Page 13: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

13The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Disruptions and challenges in the short-term

Construction activity delayed; came to a standstill during lockdown and further delayed as most migrant labourers moved back to their native places

Occupiers put up decisions regarding fresh take-up of spaces on hold

*Note: Extend and blend refers to early renewals with reduced rental escalation and extended lock in periodCAM refers to common area maintenance charges

Developers/Landlords

Developers might not be able to adhere to project completion timelines; likely impact on pre-commitments made towards these projects

Delayed decision-making & restrictions on capital expenditure limit fresh take up of spaces by occupiers; developers face major challenges & short-term liquidity concerns

Smaller issues to take a back seat as landlords try to ensure that deals are closed

Landlords open to discussing early renewals in exchange for extended lock in periods, to retain quality occupiers

Landlords not entertaining rent abatement with existing occupiers, given Force Majeure clauses, which do not include pandemics or lockdowns; open to CAM waivers and extra rent-free periods to secure new deals

Expected capital expenditure freeze lead to expansion plans being paused; renewals drive leasing activity

Occupiers increasingly look at short-term rent relief, lease restructuring or extend-and-blend* options. In case of fresh deals, tenants trying to push the rent commencement date

Fit-outs delayed because of supply chain issues

Co-working operators exposed to short-term contracts, in particular, facing challenging times; operators with more secure medium-term and long-term contracts are less exposed

Some co-working operators asking for relief from landlords; small operators might give up spaces

Occupiers

Page 14: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

14The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Relief offered by key landlords/developers

• Most landlords providing/reviewing relief to occupiers in the form of CAM discounts or waivers• Developers in cities such as Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata are more open to discuss extra rent free period

in case of new deals• Office market fundamentals remain landlord favourable with limited upcoming supply; discussions on rental

discounts and deferment of rent not being entertained by most landlords

Source: JLL Research• Deferment of rent - being considered by developers in cases where it is mutually beneficial, for instance payment of interest on the deferred portion at a later period

• Extra rent free period - applicable in cases of new leases• Extend and blend - mostly seen in cases of contracts expiring up to Dec 2020

Sample of 10 major office landlords/developers in the respective cities

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingChennai

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingDelhi NCR

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingHyderabad

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingMumbai

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingPune

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingBengaluru

Rental discount

Extra rent free period

Deferment of rent

CAM discount/ waiver

Extend and blend

Agreed

Not Agreed

ReviewingKolkata

Survey response

Page 15: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

15The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Amidst lockdown relaxations, occupiers have started moving back to offices in a phased manner

entry

Page 16: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

16The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Transitioning back to work-from-office

Landlords should maintain and sanitize properties• India Inc. getting back to offices in a phased manner• Despite government guidelines, companies are more

cautious, functioning with 10%-30% of employees• Increased focus on sanitization of premises, employee

health and well-being; essential for developers/landlords to focus on actively maintaining and sanitizing their properties

• Landlords should assist occupiers in the safe return to offices; ensure that adequate measures are taken to ensure well-being of employees

Pune

Hyderabad

Kolkata

Delhi & Gurugram

Chennai

Bengaluru

Mumbai

Maximum allowed workforce in private offices as per government guidelines%

100%

100%

100%

0%

50%

10%10%

Page 17: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

17The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

In the medium to long-term, occupiers and developers will reevaluate their strategies

evaluate

Page 18: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

18The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Office demand to remain robust in the medium to long-term• Corporates will re-evaluate commercial real estate strategy to make it more resilient to shocks

• Increased focus on health, safety and wellness features; importance of property management to grow

Work from home challenges

No study rooms

FMCG, healthcare, e-commerce and data centres

Corporates from Europe and USA set up global in-house centres

Bad acoustics quality

Data confidentiality

Joint families

Poor data speed

Impact on teamwork

Impact on ideation & innovation

Sense of isolation

Office market fundamentals are strong - low vacancy, steady rentals and limited upcoming supply. Expected to recover the fastest once the outbreak is under control

• Increasing demand for office spaces from emerging sectors

BCP to become a regular and

forefront activity

De-densification and cellularization to gain momentum

Splitting up of

offices

Increased focus on installation of

collaborative technology

Reduction in capital costs; adoption of flexible

working practices

• Work from home, at best, a supplement to the traditional way of working from office; expected to impact office market demand by an estimated 10% -15%

Infrastructure

New drivers for office space demand

Culture

• Co-working operators have to re-calibrate

Developers/landlords should invest in upgradation; make

office buildings more sustainable and enhance wellness features

Nearly 105 million sq ft of Grade A stock with upgradation potential in the top three markets of Bengaluru,

Delhi NCR and Mumbai

Investment potential of INR 55 billion;

likely to increase post the pandemic

Enhanced focus on managed office spaces and neighbourhood centres; design changes to adapt to the post COVID-19 norms of de-densification

Consolidation to garner pace with small operators tying up with more organised players

Managed office spaces an attractive proposition for occupiers to reduce

capital cost and split up office; co-working operators can tap this demand

Page 19: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

19The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

ResidentialThe RE impact

Page 20: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

20The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

The residential real estate market was on a recovery path and showed resilience amidst challenging economic conditions. The COVID - 19 pandemic disrupted the market

silient

Page 21: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

21The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Global pandemic disrupted the residential market

Implementation of key structural reforms such as RERA and GST brought in much needed transparency and efficiency

Economic slowdown in 2019; consumer sentiments took a massive hit

Residential market showed resilience; sales of residential units in 2019 across the top seven markets recorded a growth of 6% y-o-y

2020 looked promising; historic office leasing in the previous year & expected improvement in homebuyers’ confidence because of structural changes

COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the market in March

Walk-ins reduced by 50% before coming to a halt post lockdown

Homebuyers deferred purchase decisions; sales dipped by nearly 30% in Q1 2020

Source: JLL Research

Q1 2019

Units38,628

Q1 2020

Units27,451

Residential sales

29%

21The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Page 22: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

22The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

In the short-term, developers will focus on restart of construction activity and offloading unsold inventory

start

Page 23: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

23The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Disruptions and challenges in the short-term

Drop in new launches; focus on completion of under-construction projects and clearing unsold inventory

Consumer sentiments muted; uncertainty regarding job and salary cuts

Developers/Landlords

New launches mostly in the affordable and mid segments

Increased pent up demand post the crisis; homebuyers adopting a wait and watch policy because of the uncertain times

Developers have locked in capital of an estimated INR 3.7 trillion; liquidity challenges to exacerbate with sales velocity expected to come down

Delayed decision making by homebuyers; some deals in the final stages of negotiation deferred

Project completion delays; construction activity came to a standstill and the unavailability of labour and liquidity to add to the problems

Homebuyers confused about whether prices could move further down

Prices have been stagnant or witnessed marginal increase in the last few years; margins are as low as 7-8% in certain micro markets in certain price segments

Preference for ready-to-move-in projects by reputed developers

Developers offer lucrative payment structure and schemes to clear unsold inventory

Range bound prices and low home loan rates expected to aid recovery in sales once virus starts receding and sentiments start improving

Homebuyers

Co-living and student housing impacted; uncertainty around timelines for start of colleges and universities

Page 24: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

24The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Activity tracker for key developers

• Indications of price rationalization in Delhi NCR, Bengaluru, Chennai and Kolkata

• Construction activity resuming gradually but capacity utilization is low

• Physical site visits still very limited; expected to resume shortly

• Few developers provide online portal for purchase of property. In most of the cases, it is restricted to marketing and generating leads / expression of interests

Physical site visits started

Construction activity started

Delhi NCR

Mumbai

Pune

Bengaluru

Chennai

Kolkata

Hyderabad

Sample of 10 major residential developers in the respective cities

Yes

Direct price discounts offered/being reviewed

Online booking available (with payment option)

Page 25: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

25The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

The global financial crisis was the result of a housing bubble. Today valuation of residential properties is much more realistic

alistic

Page 26: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

26The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Market structure appears to be at an advantageous position compared to GFC

• All policy rates are lower than 2007-08 levels• Affordable synergy in the market; prices have bottomed out and housing interest rates are the lowest in the past 15 years• Increased affordability, better liquidity position of banks and greater demand from end users to support the recovery

of the residential market

Valuation of residential properties Overheated Realistic

Nature of the market Sellers’ market Buyers’ market

Home loan rates High Lower

Ability of banks to lend LowHigher due to better liquidity

position with RBI’s efforts to infuse liquidity and relaxing norms

Tax benefits Less More tax benefits for developers as

well as buyers introduced by the government in the last 4-5 years

Speculative fear More Relatively less because of lower demand from investors

Project portfolio Across different price segments, with focus on high-end to luxury

Affordable and mid-segment housing, which is more in sync

with demand

Global Financial Crisis COVID-19

Page 27: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

27The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

In the medium to long term, developers might have to recalibrate their business models

calibrate

Page 28: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

28The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Larger organised developers to drive the market in the long term

Residential market’s revival hinges on intensity and duration of pandemic. As consumer sentiments improve post the lockdown period, sales in the affordable and mid segments expected to show

initial green shoots of recovery towards the end of 2020, with the onset of the festive season.

Digital marketing to become prime channel to market

properties and generate leads

More customization to suit buyer needs

Increased adoption of technology

Change in the way site visits happen; videos and virtual walk through to shortlist properties followed by site visits in the final stages of decision making

Increased importance of study rooms, good network and

broadband speed, acoustics, private outdoor spaces

Advent of enclosed home pods for

working

Presence of business centres in residential

projects

Significant change in the way activities are carried out

Increased focus on safety, health, sustainability and wellness aspects of properties

Co-living revenue shared opportunities could increase with developers looking to monetize their unsold assets

Increased traction in projects of reputed developers; reputation of the developer to become a key element in the decision making matrix of homebuyers

Consolidation in the market to further speed up; only the fittest will survive and capture a major share of the market

Product metrics likely to change with remote working gaining traction

Online construction progress monitoring

Property videos will become a necessity instead of a luxury

Use of VR in processes such as site visits and closure of deals

Page 29: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

29The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Capital MarketsThe RE impact

Page 30: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

30The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Annual investments crossed USD 5 billion mark for the last three years, but 2020 started on a weaker note

gular

Page 31: The Next Normal - National Real Estate Development Council · 2020. 8. 17. · The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world 6 Source: JLL Research • Economic activity taking

31The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Investment pattern in last three years

Source: JLL Research

• Institutional investments weathered various structural changes and maintained momentum during 2017-2019

• More than 50% investments during the above period was absorbed by the office space, followed by retail and warehousing gaining momentum

• Mumbai accounted for 44% of the total investments in last three years driven by office space and residential segment

• Investments in 2019 were partly affected by shadow bank crisis leading to uncertainty among investment community

• Investments declined by 58% during January-March 2020 Y-o-Y due to COVID-19 impact, which was more pronounced during last month of the quarter

• Nationwide lockdown meant no face to face meetings, site visits, legal due diligence and financial closure leading to transactions coming to a standstill

• The daily emerging situation has confounded all stakeholders and fund providers had little choice, but to hit the pause button

58% decline in investments during January-March 2020 Y-o-Y

Source: JLL Research

USD million

Jan-19 Jan-20Feb-19 Feb-20Mar-19 Mar-20

1,134

414

156 12828

556

USD 1,704 million Jan-Mar 19

USD 712 million Jan-Mar 20

Steady investment momentum in past three years

5.52017

5.62018

5.32019

USD million

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32The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Investments pause as situation became foggy

coil

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33The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Capital markets developments from March 2020 till date

Sharp fall in global demand is reflected in wealth erosion across asset classes with PE funds, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) facing the brunt

Negative outlook on various domestic businesses leading to sharp reaction in stock, currency and bond markets

Key metros including the financial capital-Mumbai forming major share of real estate investments are the COVID-19 hotspots in the country. Lockdown has been extended in these cities and there is less visibility on their return to normalcy

Loss containment strategies like re-negotiation, rental waivers, deferred payments make asset returns questionable

Default and liquidity worries impact mutual funds and NBFCs/HFCs sectors with the Central Bank providing liquidity support

Central government and RBI announced measures to ease liquidity concerns and support worse affected sections of the economy- USD 270 billion package to support the economy announced

Real estate investments defer or go on hold mode as the deal process cycle is interrupted

33The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

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34The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Investments to resurrect various segments based on signs of growth

demption

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35The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

2020-21 to be the period of redemption

Medium term Most SWFs would remain focused on investing in local markets to revive the economy, thereby affecting cross border capital flows

Investment platforms expected to remain dominant as risk sharing between funds and developers would be the ideal combination in uncertain times

Global private equity players and SWFs, which are agile, with deep pockets

and thorough understanding of Indian markets, are expected to lap up distress

assets at attractive valuations

1

2

3

Short term Institutional investors are expected to be risk averse and cautious over the next few quarters leading to extended investment cycles

The short term focus of investors would be to scout projects that need last mile funding and see completion in 6-12 month periodLiquidity injection into banking system &

relaxation in asset classification norms are expected to improve the availability

of funds to the real estate sector

Funds are expected to be in introspection mode evaluating existing investments and resolve execution and

liquidity challenges of such projects

Income stability, indispensable business operations & occupational density are expected to be key determinants for investment evaluation. Data centers, logistics (including warehousing), critical office outsourcing facilities & global in-house centers are expected to attract capital

Global dry powder of USD 330 billion is expected to drive investments in second

half of 2020 leading to resumption of some cross border flows in Indian real estate

1

2

3

4

6

5

35The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

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36The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

Traversing through

As India begins its staged approach to lifting the lockdown across different states, the following questions will continue to be debated across different economic and social forums:

• Is this the right time to re-enter while the pandemic is yet to be contained?

• What is our preparedness for the ‘new normal’?

• Has the time come to strike a fine balance between economic considerations and public health?

While the lockdown has inarguably played a pivotal role in arresting the spread of COVID-19 in India, it has impaired economic activities. The spiralling impact of these stringent measures has had far-reaching effects on not only paralysing the ‘business as usual’ scenario but also led to severe collateral damage.

While weak internal and external demand will continue to restrain growth throughout 2020, industry experts forecast a ‘U shaped’ or a ‘swoosh shaped’ recovery in the next two years with a permanent loss of output. In the immediate term, the phased opening up of the economy will have a positive impact on re-instilling consumer confidence. This will aid in redeeming real estate, which has always been the torchbearer of economic growth and employment.

While the office sector is expected to lead the recovery cycle, the green shoots of recovery in residential real estate will be in tandem with overall economic growth and improvement in the current fragile employment scenario. Institutional investors are expected to assess the progress in each sector and are likely to focus on asset management and support projects that require last mile funding in the short term.

We do believe that this global health crisis has compelled businesses across the spectrum to reset the rules of the game while opening up new horizons to explore. Business in its new avatar will expectedly be in a better position to tackle similar economic shocks in future and ensure business continuity.

36The Next Normal: Real estate in a post-COVID world

entry

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Authors DesignAnkit BhartiyaSenior ExecutiveResearch and [email protected]

Jitesh KarlekarDirectorCapital Markets [email protected]

Sunita [email protected]

About JLLJLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technology to create rewarding opportunities, amazing spaces and sustainable real estate solutions for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of $18.0 billion, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 94,000 as of March 31, 2020. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com

About JLL India JLL is India’s premier and largest professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management. JLL India has an extensive presence across 10 major cities (Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bengaluru, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Kochi and Coimbatore) and over 130 tier II & III markets with a cumulative strength of over 12,000 professionals. The Firm provides investors, developers, local corporates and multinational companies with a comprehensive range of services. This includes leasing, capital markets, research & advisory, transaction management, project development, facility management and property & asset management. These services cover various asset classes such as commercial, industrial, warehouse and logistics, data centres, residential, retail, hospitality, healthcare, senior living and education. For further information, please visit jll.co.in

About JLL ResearchJLL Research provides data analytics and insights through Real Estate Intelligence Services (REIS), thought leadership and bespoke research. REIS is a subscription based research service designed to provide cutting edge insights into diverse and challenging real estate markets through collation, analysis and forecasts of property market indicators across asset classes such as office, retail and residential. Thought leadership focuses on providing independent insights, analysis and forecasts on key industry trends and significant regulatory & economic developments impacting the real estate industry. Bespoke research aims to provide tailor-made solutions to different stakeholders in the real estate sector and ancillary industries. Our capabilities include market assessment studies, demand-supply analysis, catchment area analysis, and price benchmarking across asset classes.

Vimal Nadar DirectorResearch and [email protected]

Arundhati Bakshi Dighe Lead PR and [email protected]

Shradha Agarwal Research AnalystResearch and [email protected]

Dr. Samantak Das Chief Economist and Head Research & [email protected]

Research Enquiries Media Enquiries

This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon as a sole source for any investment decision. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever shall be accepted by JLL for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of JLL in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of JLL to the form and content within which it appears.


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