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THE NORTH AMERICAN LNG OPPORTUNITY APEGGA, Calgary, Alberta
Andrew StephensVice President, Planning and Corporate Communications
October 13, 2005
22005 Petro-Canada
Disclaimer
LEGAL NOTICE - FORWARD LOOKING INFORMATION/RESERVES ESTIMATES
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as “plan,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “budget” or other similar wording. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, references to future capital and other expenditures, drilling plans, construction activities, the submission of development plans, seismic activity, refining margins, oil and gas production levels and the sources of growth thereof, results of exploration activities and dates by which certain areas may be developed or may come on-stream, retail throughputs, pre-production and operating costs, reserves estimates, reserves life, natural gas export capacity and environmental matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: general economic, market and business conditions; industry capacity; competitive action by other companies; fluctuations in oil and gas prices; refining and marketing margins; the ability to produce and transport crude oil and natural gas to markets; the effects of weather conditions; the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities; fluctuation in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates; the ability of suppliers to meet commitments; actions by governmental authorities including increases in taxes; decisions or approvals of administrative tribunals; changes in environmental and other regulations; risks attendant with oil and gas operations; expected rates of return; and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Petro-Canada. These factors are discussed in greater detail in filings made by Petro-Canada with the Canadian provincial securities commissions and the United States (U.S.) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors affecting forward-looking statements is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date of this presentation, and Petro-Canada does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
Petro-Canada’s staff of qualified reserves evaluators generates the reserves estimates used by the Company. Our reserves staff and management are not considered independent of the Company for purposes of the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Petro-Canada has obtained an exemption from certain Canadian reserves disclosure requirements to permit it to make disclosure in accordance with SEC standards in order to provide comparability with U.S. and other international issuers. Therefore, Petro-Canada’s reserves data and other oil and gas formal disclosure is made in accordance with U.S. disclosure requirements and practices and may differ from Canadian domestic standards and practices. Where the term barrel of oil equivalent (boe) is used in this release it may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet (Mcf): one barrel (bbl) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. The use of terms such as “probable, “possible,” “recoverable” or "potential” reserves and resources in this presentation does not meet the guidelines of the SEC for inclusion in documents filed with the SEC.
32005 Petro-Canada
Agenda
Who is Petro-Canada
Natural gas supply/demand outlook
LNG value chain components and economics
Cacouna Energy project
Conclusion and questions
42005 Petro-Canada
Downstream
Five Core Businesses
East Coast Oil
North American Natural Gas
International
Oil Sands
62005 Petro-Canada
U.S. Gas Demand > Domestic Supply
Net imports
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (Tcf)
Pipeline LNG0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Tcf/year
Net importsConsumption
Production
Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (Tcf)
2.8
0.4
2.4
4.8
2.3
6.4
01234567
2003AEO2004 2025 ForecastAEO2005 2025 Forecast
Pipeline LNG
72005 Petro-CanadaSource: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2003 and 2025(billion kilowatthours)
Share of Gas-Fired Generation increases 50%
3
9
1620
51
3
8
24
14
50
0
1000
2000
3000
Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum
2003
2025
What’s Driving U.S. Gas Demand?
U.S. Electricity Generation By Fuel, 2003 and 2025
Share of Gas-Fired Generation Increases 50%
billion kilowatt hours
82005 Petro-CanadaSource:
TCF/Y
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Growth in Alaskan production
Growth innon- -associated unconventional
Growth in LNG imports
Base production (all sources)
LNG Helps Fill U.S. Supply Gap
Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005
92005 Petro-Canada
Global Gas Supply And Consumption
Consumption(BCF/D)
Production(BCF/D)
R/P Ratio(Years)
N. America
C & S America Africa
Middle East Asia Pacific
Russia & FSU
Europe
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
76 73
10
11 13
55
5030
18
5772 79
36 3144
7 14
97 23 27
261
102005 Petro-Canada
The Importance Of LNG
“Access to world natural gas supplies will require a major extension of LNG terminal import
capacity…. Without the flexibility that such facilities impart, imbalances in supply and
demand will engender price volatility.”
Alan Greenspan
Testimony to U.S. House Energy Committee
June 10, 2003
122005 Petro-Canada
LNG Value Chain
Upstream LNG
Transport
Regas
Marketing
Liquefaction
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000Capex $ MM
Upstream
Typical Investment(500 MMcfd / 3.5 Mt/yr)
132005 Petro-Canada
LNG Block Flow Diagram
Natural Gas
Acid GasRemoval
DehydrationMercuryRemoval
GasWells
Reception Liquefaction
CondensateStabilisation
Fractionation
UtilitiesStorage
andLoading
Condensate
LNG
LPG
Acid GasTreatment
172005 Petro-Canada
Shipping - A Critical Cost Factor
DISTANCES (in nautical miles from Dataloy AS)
Quebec Gulf of Mexico
Baltic 3,784 6,076
Nigeria 4,924 5,936
Qatar 8,113 9,753
Trinidad 2,684 2,232
• Shipping costs for Quebec LNG regasification terminals will be $0.15 to $0.25 lower than the Gulf of Mexico
Trinidad
212005 Petro-Canada
At What Market Price Is LNG Economical For North America?
Source: EIA’s 2005 Annual Energy Outlook
232005 Petro-Canada
Project Overview
Average send out capacity of about 500 MMcf/d
TransCanada and Petro-Canada share construction costs of about $660 million
TransCanada: facility operator with transportation expertise
Petro-Canada: LNG supplier with marketing experience and international upstream supply business
242005 Petro-Canada
Gros-Cacouna Terminal And Ship
Artist’s Rendition
Siting based on water depth and berthing capabilities, storage capacity and take-away pipeline capacity.
252005 Petro-Canada
Stakeholder Relations
Direct employment of 500 to 1,000 people during construction
30 to 50 long-term positions to operate facility
Regulatory approval process to take two years Environmental impact statement filed in spring 2005 Public hearings in 2006
Community referendum supports project in September
262005 Petro-Canada
Market AdvantageMarket Advantage
Northeastern Canada and United StatesNortheastern Canada and United StatesAbsorption Advantage Absorption Advantage
Ontario, Quebec, New England and Mid-Atlantic
Market Demand
New EnglandMarket Demand
Gros-Cacouna LNG easily absorbed: limited price
ramification
Gros-Cacouna LNG easily absorbed: limited price
ramification
Other Canadian LNG has major impact: prices
spiral down
Other Canadian LNG has major impact: prices
spiral down
Impact of 10 Bcm/yr LNG into Each Market
7%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Bcm/yr
272005 Petro-Canada
Progress On Russian LNG ProjectProgress On Russian LNG Project
Gas grid to feed LNG export
Progress● MOU – Oct. 2004● Feasibility report – May 2005● Commercial proposal – June
2005
Discussing Interim Development Agreement
Risk mitigation● Project financing● Gazprom partnership● Reciprocal investment
Vyborg
Primorsk
282005 Petro-Canada
Project Schedule
Sept 2004 – June 2005 Prepare and file regulatory applications
July 2005 – Q4 2006 Application review and approval process
2007 – 2009 Design and construction
Q4 2009 Facility start-up
292005 Petro-Canada
Petro-Canada’s Capabilities
Solid operator of large projects
Track record of successful stakeholder relations
Relationships with suppliers around the world
Marketing expertise through upstream and downstream business
Strong partners with TransCanada Pipelines and potential suppliers like Gazprom
302005 Petro-Canada
Conclusions
LNG will be a critical supply source to meet growing North American demand
Siting of re-gasification facilities is based on economics and community acceptance
A Quebec LNG facility has better access to markets and lower shipping costs
Petro-Canada has the experience, capability and partners to bring LNG to North America