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THE NORTH AMERICAN LNG OPPORTUNITY APEGGA, Calgary, Alberta Andrew Stephens Vice President, Planning and Corporate Communications October 13, 2005
Transcript

THE NORTH AMERICAN LNG OPPORTUNITY APEGGA, Calgary, Alberta

Andrew StephensVice President, Planning and Corporate Communications

October 13, 2005

22005 Petro-Canada

Disclaimer

LEGAL NOTICE - FORWARD LOOKING INFORMATION/RESERVES ESTIMATES

This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as “plan,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “budget” or other similar wording. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, references to future capital and other expenditures, drilling plans, construction activities, the submission of development plans, seismic activity, refining margins, oil and gas production levels and the sources of growth thereof, results of exploration activities and dates by which certain areas may be developed or may come on-stream, retail throughputs, pre-production and operating costs, reserves estimates, reserves life, natural gas export capacity and environmental matters. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results, levels of activity and achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: general economic, market and business conditions; industry capacity; competitive action by other companies; fluctuations in oil and gas prices; refining and marketing margins; the ability to produce and transport crude oil and natural gas to markets; the effects of weather conditions; the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities; fluctuation in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates; the ability of suppliers to meet commitments; actions by governmental authorities including increases in taxes; decisions or approvals of administrative tribunals; changes in environmental and other regulations; risks attendant with oil and gas operations; expected rates of return; and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Petro-Canada. These factors are discussed in greater detail in filings made by Petro-Canada with the Canadian provincial securities commissions and the United States (U.S.) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors affecting forward-looking statements is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date of this presentation, and Petro-Canada does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

Petro-Canada’s staff of qualified reserves evaluators generates the reserves estimates used by the Company. Our reserves staff and management are not considered independent of the Company for purposes of the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Petro-Canada has obtained an exemption from certain Canadian reserves disclosure requirements to permit it to make disclosure in accordance with SEC standards in order to provide comparability with U.S. and other international issuers. Therefore, Petro-Canada’s reserves data and other oil and gas formal disclosure is made in accordance with U.S. disclosure requirements and practices and may differ from Canadian domestic standards and practices. Where the term barrel of oil equivalent (boe) is used in this release it may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet (Mcf): one barrel (bbl) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. The use of terms such as “probable, “possible,” “recoverable” or "potential” reserves and resources in this presentation does not meet the guidelines of the SEC for inclusion in documents filed with the SEC.

32005 Petro-Canada

Agenda

Who is Petro-Canada

Natural gas supply/demand outlook

LNG value chain components and economics

Cacouna Energy project

Conclusion and questions

42005 Petro-Canada

Downstream

Five Core Businesses

East Coast Oil

North American Natural Gas

International

Oil Sands

52005 Petro-Canada

Natural Gas

Supply/Demand Outlook

62005 Petro-Canada

U.S. Gas Demand > Domestic Supply

Net imports

Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (Tcf)

Pipeline LNG0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005

Tcf/year

Net importsConsumption

Production

Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (Tcf)

2.8

0.4

2.4

4.8

2.3

6.4

01234567

2003AEO2004 2025 ForecastAEO2005 2025 Forecast

Pipeline LNG

72005 Petro-CanadaSource: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2003 and 2025(billion kilowatthours)

Share of Gas-Fired Generation increases 50%

3

9

1620

51

3

8

24

14

50

0

1000

2000

3000

Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum

2003

2025

What’s Driving U.S. Gas Demand?

U.S. Electricity Generation By Fuel, 2003 and 2025

Share of Gas-Fired Generation Increases 50%

billion kilowatt hours

82005 Petro-CanadaSource:

TCF/Y

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Growth in Alaskan production

Growth innon- -associated unconventional

Growth in LNG imports

Base production (all sources)

LNG Helps Fill U.S. Supply Gap

Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005

92005 Petro-Canada

Global Gas Supply And Consumption

Consumption(BCF/D)

Production(BCF/D)

R/P Ratio(Years)

N. America

C & S America Africa

Middle East Asia Pacific

Russia & FSU

Europe

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

76 73

10

11 13

55

5030

18

5772 79

36 3144

7 14

97 23 27

261

102005 Petro-Canada

The Importance Of LNG

“Access to world natural gas supplies will require a major extension of LNG terminal import

capacity…. Without the flexibility that such facilities impart, imbalances in supply and

demand will engender price volatility.”

Alan Greenspan

Testimony to U.S. House Energy Committee

June 10, 2003

112005 Petro-Canada

LNG Value Chain

Components And Economics

122005 Petro-Canada

LNG Value Chain

Upstream LNG

Transport

Regas

Marketing

Liquefaction

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000Capex $ MM

Upstream

Typical Investment(500 MMcfd / 3.5 Mt/yr)

132005 Petro-Canada

LNG Block Flow Diagram

Natural Gas

Acid GasRemoval

DehydrationMercuryRemoval

GasWells

Reception Liquefaction

CondensateStabilisation

Fractionation

UtilitiesStorage

andLoading

Condensate

LNG

LPG

Acid GasTreatment

142005 Petro-Canada

The Liquefaction Process

152005 Petro-Canada

Heat Exchanger

162005 Petro-Canada

LNG Carriers

Photos courtesy of CH-IV International

172005 Petro-Canada

Shipping - A Critical Cost Factor

DISTANCES (in nautical miles from Dataloy AS)

Quebec Gulf of Mexico

Baltic 3,784 6,076

Nigeria 4,924 5,936

Qatar 8,113 9,753

Trinidad 2,684 2,232

• Shipping costs for Quebec LNG regasification terminals will be $0.15 to $0.25 lower than the Gulf of Mexico

Trinidad

182005 Petro-Canada

Re-gasification Process

192005 Petro-Canada

Existing And Proposed LNG TerminalsIn North America

Source: FERC

B

A

C

D

E

202005 Petro-Canada

Potential LNG Terminals In North America

Source: FERC

212005 Petro-Canada

At What Market Price Is LNG Economical For North America?

Source: EIA’s 2005 Annual Energy Outlook

222005 Petro-Canada

The Cacouna Energy Project

232005 Petro-Canada

Project Overview

Average send out capacity of about 500 MMcf/d

TransCanada and Petro-Canada share construction costs of about $660 million

TransCanada: facility operator with transportation expertise

Petro-Canada: LNG supplier with marketing experience and international upstream supply business

242005 Petro-Canada

Gros-Cacouna Terminal And Ship

Artist’s Rendition

Siting based on water depth and berthing capabilities, storage capacity and take-away pipeline capacity.

252005 Petro-Canada

Stakeholder Relations

Direct employment of 500 to 1,000 people during construction

30 to 50 long-term positions to operate facility

Regulatory approval process to take two years Environmental impact statement filed in spring 2005 Public hearings in 2006

Community referendum supports project in September

262005 Petro-Canada

Market AdvantageMarket Advantage

Northeastern Canada and United StatesNortheastern Canada and United StatesAbsorption Advantage Absorption Advantage

Ontario, Quebec, New England and Mid-Atlantic

Market Demand

New EnglandMarket Demand

Gros-Cacouna LNG easily absorbed: limited price

ramification

Gros-Cacouna LNG easily absorbed: limited price

ramification

Other Canadian LNG has major impact: prices

spiral down

Other Canadian LNG has major impact: prices

spiral down

Impact of 10 Bcm/yr LNG into Each Market

7%

40%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Bcm/yr

272005 Petro-Canada

Progress On Russian LNG ProjectProgress On Russian LNG Project

Gas grid to feed LNG export

Progress● MOU – Oct. 2004● Feasibility report – May 2005● Commercial proposal – June

2005

Discussing Interim Development Agreement

Risk mitigation● Project financing● Gazprom partnership● Reciprocal investment

Vyborg

Primorsk

282005 Petro-Canada

Project Schedule

Sept 2004 – June 2005 Prepare and file regulatory applications

July 2005 – Q4 2006 Application review and approval process

2007 – 2009 Design and construction

Q4 2009 Facility start-up

292005 Petro-Canada

Petro-Canada’s Capabilities

Solid operator of large projects

Track record of successful stakeholder relations

Relationships with suppliers around the world

Marketing expertise through upstream and downstream business

Strong partners with TransCanada Pipelines and potential suppliers like Gazprom

302005 Petro-Canada

Conclusions

LNG will be a critical supply source to meet growing North American demand

Siting of re-gasification facilities is based on economics and community acceptance

A Quebec LNG facility has better access to markets and lower shipping costs

Petro-Canada has the experience, capability and partners to bring LNG to North America


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