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The Ocean The Ocean I di O 2005) Indian Ocean ann et al. (2 Kolterma There are a number of good books dealing with the ocean. At a level appropriate to this class: Bigg G 2003 The Oceans and Climate 2nd Ed Cambrige University Press 273 pp ; Bigg, G., 2003, The Oceans and Climate, 2nd Ed., Cambrige University Press, 273 pp.; Pickard, G.L. and W.J. Emery, 1990, Descriptive Physical Oceanography, 5th Ed., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 320 pp.; Pond, S. and G.L. Pickard, 1983, Introductory Physical Oceanography Pergamon Press Oxford 329 pp On a more mathematical level: Pedlosky Oceanography, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 329 pp. On a more mathematical level: Pedlosky , J., 2004, Ocean Circulation Theory, Springer, 453 pp. 1
Transcript

The OceanThe Ocean

I di O

2005

)

Indian Ocean

ann

et a

l. (2

Kol

term

a

There are a number of good books dealing with the ocean. At a level appropriate to this class: Bigg G 2003 The Oceans and Climate 2nd Ed Cambrige University Press 273 pp ;Bigg, G., 2003, The Oceans and Climate, 2nd Ed., Cambrige University Press, 273 pp.; Pickard, G.L. and W.J. Emery, 1990, Descriptive Physical Oceanography, 5th Ed., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 320 pp.; Pond, S. and G.L. Pickard, 1983, Introductory Physical Oceanography Pergamon Press Oxford 329 pp On a more mathematical level: PedloskyOceanography, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 329 pp. On a more mathematical level: Pedlosky, J., 2004, Ocean Circulation Theory, Springer, 453 pp.

1

The world oceansThe world oceansThe global ocean is considered as consisting of the following basins (definition of the boundaries may slightly vary):of the boundaries may slightly vary):• Arctic Ocean > 65° N;• Atlantic Ocean 30° S - 65° N, 20° E - 70° W;

I di O 30° S 65° N 20° E 120° E• Indian Ocean 30° S - 65° N, 20° E - 120° E;• Pacific Ocean 30° S - 65° N, 120° E - 70° W;• Southern Ocean < 30° S .

2http://go.hrw.com/atlas/norm_htm/oceans.html

Characteristics of the world oceansCharacteristics of the world oceans

* Koltermann, K.-P., J. Meincke and V. Gouretski, 2005, Global Ocean and Sea Ice In: Hantel M (Ed ) Observed Global Climate Landolt-Sea Ice. In: Hantel., M. (Ed.), Observed Global Climate, LandoltBörnstein, V/6 (Geophysics/Climatology), Springer.

3

The ocean in the climate systemThe ocean in the climate systemThe world oceans:

hl 70 % f th th’ f• cover roughly 70 % of the earth’s surface;• represent roughly 97 % of the water storages;• represent therefore about 97 % of the mass contained in therepresent therefore about 97 % of the mass contained in the

biosphere/atmosphere/cryosphere/hydrosphere.

Due to the high thermal capacity of water (specific heat of 4187 J kg-1 K-1Due to the high thermal capacity of water (specific heat of 4187 J kg Kfor pure water as compared to 1004 J kg-1 K-1 for dry air), the world oceans can store and transport a considerable amount of heat.A lt l i ti i th f t t (SST)As a result, seasonal variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) are modest, not exceeding 8 °C. In contrast, seasonal excursion of the surface temperature over the land masses can reach 50 °C.

4

The energy balance of the surface watersThe energy balance of the surface watersConsideration the energy balance of the surface layer is essential for understanding how the oceans are heated. Note that we really look at aunderstanding how the oceans are heated. Note that we really look at avolume, not just at the surface itself.

Q* = NRQ* = NRQH = HQE = LvE

Oke (1987)

5

Energy fluxesEnergy fluxesThe energy budget of the oceans is peculiar. An excessoceans is peculiar. An excess of solar radiation during the day, partly due to the low albedo of water at moderatealbedo of water at moderate solar zenith angles, leads to heating of the underlying

t D i i ht h t iwater. During night, heat is released to the atmosphere through the fluxes of sensible and latent heat.Note that the average Bowen ratio of the oceans is close toratio of the oceans is close to 0.1.

Oke (1987)

6

Oke (1987)

The albedo of waterThe albedo of water

7Raschke and Ohmura (2005)

The albedo of water for direct solar radiationThe albedo of water for direct solar radiationFor solar zenith angles of less than about 70o (solar elevations of more than 20o), the albedo of a plane water surface is small, typically less than 0.15, but20 ), the albedo of a plane water surface is small, typically less than 0.15, but increases very rapidly for zenith angles above this threshold.

albedo

solar elevation

Kondratyev (1969)

solar elevation

8

The albedo of water for direct solar radiation (2)The albedo of water for direct solar radiation (2)The dependence of the albedo of water on solar elevation can be explained with the help of Fresnel’s formula (List, 1984). Namely, the reflectivity of a planethe help of Fresnel s formula (List, 1984). Namely, the reflectivity of a plane water surface for unpolarized light is given by:

⎤⎡ −− )ri(tan)ri(sin022

⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡+

++

⋅=α)ri(tan)ri(tan

)ri(sin)ri(sin5.0 22wat

where i denotes the angle of the incident beam (zenith angle of the sun) and rwhere i denotes the angle of the incident beam (zenith angle of the sun), and r is the angle of refraction given by Snell’s law as:

)isin(n)rsin( air )isin(n

)rsin(wat

air ⋅=

nair = 1.00 and nwat = 1.33 are the refractive indices of air and water, air wat ,respectively.

iair

water

9r

The albedo of water revisitedThe albedo of water revisitedThe dependence of the albedo on the zenith angle decreases with increasing cloudiness, because the incoming radiation becomes more diffuse.cloudiness, because the incoming radiation becomes more diffuse.

Kondratyev (1969)

10

Extinction of solar radiationExtinction of solar radiationThe extinction of solar radiation in water can be well approximated by the Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law. The extinction coefficient depends on the chemicalBeer Bouguer Lambert law. The extinction coefficient depends on the chemical make-up of the water (turbidity, that is the amount of suspended material, plankton, ...) and increases with wavelength toward the infrared (red light absorbed more rapidly than blue light)absorbed more rapidly than blue light).In most water bodies shortwave radiation is restricted to the uppermost 10 m, but in some very clear tropical waters it has been observed to reach 700 to1000 m.

11

Radiative transferRadiative transfer

A pencil of radiation traversing a medium will be weakened by its interaction with matter This interaction is called extinction or attenuation an overallwith matter. This interaction is called extinction or attenuation, an overall designation for the processes of absorption and scattering.We assume that the medium has a density ρ and is characterized by a mass extinction coefficient of kλ [m2 kg-1].

ds

Nλ Nλ + dNλ

ρ, kλ

According to the above figure and to first order:

dsNkdN λλλ ρ−=

12

Beer-Bouguer-Lambert lawBeer Bouguer Lambert law

If scattering and emission can be neglected:

λλ

λ −=ρ

Ndsk

dN

With Nλ(s = 0) = Nλ0, the equation can be integrated to yield:

⎟⎟⎞

⎜⎜⎛

ρ−= ∫s

dskexpN)s(N ⎟⎟⎠

⎜⎜⎝

ρ= ∫ λλλ0

0 dskexpN)s(N

If kλ is independent of s, then

( )ukexpNdskexpN)s(N 0

s

00 λλλλλ −≡⎟⎟

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛ρ−= ∫

.dsus

0∫ρ=where the optical path u has been defined as

⎠⎝

This is Beer’s or Beer-Bouguer-Lambert lawThis is Beer s or Beer Bouguer Lambert law.

13

Seasonality of the surface temperatureSeasonality of the surface temperature

14After Peixoto and Oort (1992)

Meridional transport of energy in the climate systemMeridional transport of energy in the climate system

15Trenberth, K.E. and J.M. Caron, 2001: Estimates of meridional atmosphere and ocean heat transports. J. Climate, 14, 3433-3443.

Storage of carbonStorage of carbonDue to the high solubility of CO2 in water, the deep water can store a considerable amount of carbon.considerable amount of carbon.

02)

Gru

ber (

200

arm

ient

o an

d

16

Sa

1 Pg (petagram) ≡ 1015 g ≡ 1012 kg

Carbon dioxide solubilityCarbon dioxide solubilityCarbon dioxide, like other gases, is soluble in water. Its solubility, σCO2(S,T), that is the saturation concentration divided by the atmospheric partial pressure,that is the saturation concentration divided by the atmospheric partial pressure, is a function of salinity and temperature. For a given salinity, solubility increases with decreasing temperature, as shown in the following picture.

17

Carbon dioxide in the oceanCarbon dioxide in the oceanUnlike many other gases (oxygen for instance), CO2 reacts with water and forms a balance of several ionic and non-ionic species (collectively known asforms a balance of several ionic and non ionic species (collectively known as dissolved inorganic carbon, or DIC). These are dissolved free carbon dioxide (CO2), carbonic acid (H2CO3), bicarbonate (HCO3

-) and carbonate (CO32-), and

they interact with water as follows:they interact with water as follows:

CO2 + H2O ↔ H2CO3 ↔ HCO3- + H+ ↔ CO3

2- + 2 H+

(Hi t thi k b t S d Cl b d b t th b bbli(Hints: think about Soda Club, and about the bubblingwhen dissolving calcite with acid)

As pointed out by Bigg (2003), the component reactions are fast, but the conversion of bicarbonate to carbonate proceeds at a speed roughly 1000 times slower than the conversion of carbon dioxide into bicarbonate. The net effect is therefore a summary reaction given by:

CO2 + H2O + CO32- ↔ 2HCO3

-

The bicarbonate/carbonate species are not produced solely from the equilibrium with CO2, but also have source from deposition (river or wind-blown dust) and weathering These background sources permits a greater absorption of

18weathering. These background sources permits a greater absorption of atmospheric CO2 than would otherwise occur.

Uptake of carbon dioxide by the oceanUptake of carbon dioxide by the oceanIt is usually assumed (Broecker and Peng, 1982) that the flux of CO2 at the sea/atmosphere interface is proportional to the difference in concentrationsea/atmosphere interface is proportional to the difference in concentration between a thin diffusive layer beneath the surface , [CO2]sf, and the lower boundary of the mixed layer, [CO2]m, the proportionality constant λ being essentially dependent on the surface wind speed Defining the z axis positiveessentially dependent on the surface wind speed. Defining the z-axis positive upward we have:

[ ] [ ]( )ml2sf2CO COCO)U(F2

−⋅λ−= [ ] [ ]( )ml2sf2CO2

The concentration in the surface layer can be expressed in terms of the solubility, σCO2(T,S), and the partial pressure in the atmosphere, pCO2:y, CO2( , ), p p p , pCO2

[ ] 2CO2COsf2 pCO ⋅σ=

Since the atmospheric concentrations as well the partial pressure of CO2 are roughly uniform over the globe, the above equations show that the direction of the flux of CO2 at the sea/atmosphere interface depends on whether the oceanic concentration is above/below the equilibrium concentration. Due to the temperature dependence of the solubility this occurs in the tropics/high

19

p p y p glatitudes.

Uptake of carbon dioxide by the ocean (2)Uptake of carbon dioxide by the ocean (2)Thus, on an annual mean, the high latitudes represent a sink of atmospheric CO2, while the equatorial and sub-tropical regions are a source (Takahashi etCO2, while the equatorial and sub tropical regions are a source (Takahashi et al., 1997)

20* Takahashi, T. et al., 1997, Global air-sea flux of CO2: An estimate based on measurements of sea–air pCO2 difference, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, Vol. 94, pp. 8292–8299.

The ocean as a source of water vaporThe ocean as a source of water vaporThe oceans also represent a major source of water vapor for the atmosphere.

21Ohmura and Raschke (2005)

Salinity of seawaterSalinity of seawaterSeawater contains a quantity of dissolved material (mostly ions) collectively termed salinity (see Table below). The average salinity of the oceans is abouttermed salinity (see Table below). The average salinity of the oceans is about 35 g kg-1 or 35 ‰ or 35 psu*.

Hartmann (1994)

* Since 1982 a salinity scale based on the electrical conductivity of sea water has been used. In this system, salinity is expressed in practical salinity units (psu). Salinity values i i i ll id i l f h d (‰) b i h

22in psu units are essentially identical to a measure of parts per thousand (‰) by weight

Salinity of the world oceansSalinity of the world oceans

Koltermann et al. (2005)

23

Salinity of the world oceans (2)Salinity of the world oceans (2)Salinity can vary considerably with depth, as seen in the following cross-sections taken across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.sections taken across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

(20 W)

(200

5)m

ann

et a

l. (

(170 W)

Kol

term

24

Density of sea waterDensity of sea waterThe global circulation in the world oceans, the thermohaline circulation (see later on), are driven by density gradients. The density of sea water, ρ(T,S,p),later on), are driven by density gradients. The density of sea water, ρ(T,S,p), depends on both temperature (T) and salinity (S) and, to a negligible degree, on pressure (p).

25Density anomaly, ρ – 1000 [kg m-3], as a function of temperature andsalinity. From Hartmann (1994).

Density of sea water (2)Density of sea water (2)

Pond and Pickard (1983)

26

The thermoclineThe thermoclineThe most prominent feature in the vertical distribution of the temperature is certainly the thermocline, a sharp decline in temperature over a very shallowcertainly the thermocline, a sharp decline in temperature over a very shallow layer. We distinguish between the seasonal thermocline, usually found at a depth of ~ 100 m (left panel), and the permanent thermocline, located at depths of ~ 1000 m (right panel)1000 m (right panel)..

Evolution of the temperature in the upper 100 mof the Pacific Ocean (50°N, 145°W) (Hartmann, 1991).

27

The thermocline and salinityThe thermocline and salinity

h d h f h i d lThe depth of the mixed layer depends on the underlying water masses, the water transports, and the changes at the surface. The latter are influenced by solar heating,influenced by solar heating, convection, evaporation, precipitation, sensible heat flux and turbulent mixingflux, and turbulent mixing, caused mainly by mechanical stirring of wind, waves and tidtides.

Denman and Mikaye (1973)

28

Currents in the oceansCurrents in the oceansIn dealing with the oceanic currents it is convenient to distinguish among the following types of circulations:following types of circulations:

• Wind-driven circulation. This takes place in the mixed layer, on scales ranging from the local to the global, and consists of both a horizontal as well as vertical component;

• The gyres. These are mainly horizontal currents on the large scale. The so-called boundary currents on the western side of the gyres are part ofso called boundary currents on the western side of the gyres are part of this type of circulation;

• The thermohaline circulation. It is driven by the large-scale density gradients, which themselves depend of the distribution of temperature (→ thermo) and salinity (→ haline). After Broecker (1987), the thermohaline circulation is often associated to the global conveyor belt, but the concept is controversial (see e.g. Rahmstorf, 1999).

Rahmstorf, S., 1999, Currents of Change, Investigating the Ocean’s Role in Climate.

29Essay for the McDonnell Foundation Centennial Fellowship.

Wind-driven circulationWind driven circulationAtmospheric winds exert a drag or stress on the sea surface, according to:

UUCD

rrrρ=τ

h i th i d it U i th i d t d C d (b lk h )where ρ is the air density, U is the wind vector, and CD a drag (bulk exchange) coefficient that itself is a function of the wind speed and the surface roughness. The equation shows that the stress is parallel to the surface wind, which leads to the following picture of the mean annual stress:

30

Wind-driven circulation (2)Wind driven circulation (2)In a steady state, the conservation of horizontal momentum in the surface layer, (uE, vE), can be simplified to a balance between the Coriolis accelaration and(uE, vE), can be simplified to a balance between the Coriolis accelaration and the acceleration due to stress:

1ufand1vf yE

xE

τ∂=

τ∂=−

zufand

zvf

0E

0E ∂ρ∂ρ

where f = 2 Ω sin(ϕ) is the Coriolis parameter. Integrating from a depth h, where the stress becomes negligibly small, to the surface results in the following equation for the vertical mean, horizontal mass transport:

⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛ τ−τ+= xyhor f

1,f1M

r

which shows that the mass transport is perpendicular to the surface stress, to the right of τ in the northern hemisphere, to the left in the sourthern hemisphere.pBecause momentum is dissipated through internal friction, the wind-induced stress can penetrate only to a finite depth into the ocean. This depth defines the Ek l Th i t d t t i th f l ll d Ek

31Ekman layer. The associated mass transport is therefore also called Ekman transport.

Wind-driven circulation (3)Wind driven circulation (3)A depiction of the various mechanisms acting in the Ekman layer is provided with the following picture.with the following picture.

32

Ekman up- and downwellingEkman up and downwellingDepending on whether the Ekman transport in a given area is convergent or divergent, there is an associated vertical transport which is directed downwarddivergent, there is an associated vertical transport which is directed downward or upward. Associated vertical velocities are generally less than 0.5 m s-1, but they nevertheless significantly contribute to the vertical motion in the upper oceanocean.A well known example of vertical motion driven by the surface stress is the upwelling of cold water along the coast of Peru. This is an important component of the El Niño / La Niña phenomenon.

surface convergencesurface convergence

sea surface

thermoclinedownwelling thermoclinedownwelling

33

Equatorial upwellingEquatorial upwellingIn the equatorial regions the divergence of the Ekman transport leads to a steady upwelling, that is apparent in the distribution of the water temperature.steady upwelling, that is apparent in the distribution of the water temperature.

Hartmann (1991)

34

The gyresThe gyresRotational structures in the surface currents are apparent in many areas of the world oceans. These rotational structures are called gyres.world oceans. These rotational structures are called gyres.

35Trenberth (1992)

The gyres (2)The gyres (2)Schematically the gyre circulation can be represented as follows.

36

The gyres (3)The gyres (3)The dynamics of the gyres can be understood in terms of the conservation of potential vorticity in a basin of limited size:potential vorticity in a basin of limited size:

Hf+ζ

Hwhere f is the Coriolis parameter, H the depth of the layer and ζ is the relative vorticity defined in terms of the east- and northward components of the current,

du and v, as:

yu

xv

∂∂

−∂∂

=ζyx ∂∂

A derivation of the relevant equations can be found in e.g. Pond and Pickard (1983). We note that the relative vorticity can be changed by moving in the meridional direction (change in f), varying the depth H of the water layer, but also due to frictional effects, in particular at the eastern and western boundaries of the oceanic basins.

37

The gyres (4)The gyres (4)For a symmetric circulation across the oceanic basins (intensity of the meridional current on the western side equal to the intensity of the current onmeridional current on the western side equal to the intensity of the current on the eastern side), the forcing terms would not balance, leading to a steady acceleration of the gyre.H d i ibl b ll i b dHowever, a steady state is possible by allowing a strong western boundary current trapped in a narrow zone near the coast. The Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and the Kuroshio Current in the North Pacific are examples of such a current.

38

The thermohaline circulationThe thermohaline circulationThe global circulation of the world oceans is known as the thermohaline circulation. It is driven by density gradients that are due to variations incirculation. It is driven by density gradients that are due to variations in temperature and salinity. A schematic of the thermohaline circulation as proposed by Broecker (1987) is shown in the following figure. Surface currents are in red deep currents in blue The main sources of deep water in the Northare in red, deep currents in blue. The main sources of deep water in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean are indicated with yellow dots.

39

Formation of deep water in the North AtlanticFormation of deep water in the North AtlanticOne of the two main sources of deep water is located in the North Atlantic. The densification of the surface water on the northward side of the Gulf Streamdensification of the surface water on the northward side of the Gulf Stream occurs through three processes: • cooling (mainly in winter)

through evaporation and longwave radiation;

• loss of fresh water throughloss of fresh water through evaporation;

• salt rejection during seaice f iformation;

• the transport of salty waterinto the North Atlantic.into the North Atlantic.

40Rahmstorf (1999)

The key factor: salinityThe key factor: salinityWhy is there no deep water formation in the North Pacific?Obviously the density of water in this basin is not sufficiently high to induceObviously the density of water in this basin is not sufficiently high to induce penetration of surface water to the bottom of the ocean. The absence of cooling is certainly not the main reason. What is really missing is salinity. The North P ifi i l lt th th N th Atl ti ( f 32 ‰ d tPacific is less salty then the North Atlantic (an average of 32 ‰ as compared to 35 ‰). Salinity mainly controls density at low temperatures.

41Koltermann et al. (2005)

The thermohaline circulationThe thermohaline circulation

42

A schematic view of the ocean circulationA schematic view of the ocean circulation

Steady-state circulations in a sectorial b i di f hocean basin extending from the

equator to the pole with a longitudinal extent of roughly 60°. Wind stress τ drives a wind driven gyre circulation (WGC) which shows western intensification due to rotation. τ also causes Ekman suction in the northerly and Ekman pumping in the southerly upper layer giving ain the southerly upper layer giving a near-surface isopycnal surface s its typical shape.

Th i l i h ll b l th b l d d b l thThe isopycnal is shallow below the subpolar gyre and deep below the subtropical gyre. A source of newly formed deep water S0 feeds the deep ocean in which a deep western boundary current (DWBC) develops from which the deep geostrophic flow (DGF) of the interior is derived. DGF flows northward to conserve potential vorticity while slowly upwelling. This results in a vertical mass flux Q that closes the flow. In reality, Q < S0

43

Q y, Q 0in this sector and the DWBC is crossing the equator setting up a global circulation. (Figure from Stocker, ERCA 2000)

The thermohaline circulation and past climateThe thermohaline circulation and past climateThe state of the thermohaline circulation can change abruptly, as demonstrated by proxy records of past climatic changes. The supply of fresh water in theby proxy records of past climatic changes. The supply of fresh water in the North Atlantic from melt water and icebergs during the final stage of a glacial cycle is one of the main reasons for the temporary shut down of the conveyor belt More on this topic laterbelt. More on this topic later.

44

The thermohaline circulation in the future climateThe thermohaline circulation in the future climateDriven by warming and freshening of the North Atlantic, most climate models show a reduction of the meridional overturning circulation (thermohalineshow a reduction of the meridional overturning circulation (thermohaline circulation) of 0 to 50% for the next century. In contrast to some simpler models, the complex ocean models show a rather gradual decrease, not an abrupt shift The very local nature of mixing and convection is difficult toabrupt shift. The very local nature of mixing and convection is difficult to model, and uncertainties are still large.

Projected change in the Atlantic MOC for SRES scenarios A1B. Figure from IPCC AR4 (2007)

45

IPCC AR4 (2007).

The observed ocean heat uptakeThe observed ocean heat uptakeThe ocean has warmed over the last decades, in particular near the surface, consistent with the observed warming in the atmosphere. Models predicted thatconsistent with the observed warming in the atmosphere. Models predicted that trend before it was measured globally. The decadal variations are still poorly understood, and could be related to poor spatial coverage in some regions and/or model deficienciesand/or model deficiencies.

46Observed global ocean heat uptake for different depth layers. From Levitus et al., GRL (2005).

Detection and attribution in the oceanDetection and attribution in the oceanThe observed warming (red) is far outside the naturalis far outside the natural variability in ocean temperature as simulated by model (green upper panels)model (green, upper panels), but in good agreement with the simulated warming ( l l ) f(green, lower panels) from models that include anthropogenic forcing.

47

The observed ocean heat uptakeThe observed ocean heat uptakeThe ocean is by far the largest heat reservoir in the climate system and has taken up most of the additional energy in the system (red bar). Quantifying thetaken up most of the additional energy in the system (red bar). Quantifying the anthropogenic heat uptake is critical to determine the current imbalance of the system.

48Observed global energy uptake for different reservoirs. From Levitus et al., GRL (2005).

The imbalance of the climateThe imbalance of the climate

Q = F - λ ΔT

GHGAerosol

F λ ΔT1

Q

(or F - Q = λ ΔT)

Equilibrium: Q = 0

F λ Δ TQ

Transient

⇒ F = λ Δ T2

⇒ ΔT2 > ΔT1

Aerosol

Commitment warming ΔT2 - ΔT1

GHGAerosol

F λ ΔT2Climate sensitivity: equilibrium global mean surface warming for a given forcing:

Q=0

a given forcing:

S = 1 / λ = Δ T2 / F

49

Q 0

Equilibrium

Commitment warming and sea level riseCommitment warming and sea level riseThe surface will warm for about another century after the forcing is stabilized. Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries. Because the thermalSea level will continue to rise for many centuries. Because the thermal expansion coefficient of water depends on temperature and pressure, dynamical changes are important, and it matters where the warming in ocean takes place.

Thermal expansion accounts for b h lf f h j dabout half of the projected sea

level rise over the next century.

50(Meehl et al. Science 2005)

51


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