The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Dr. David Khemakhem Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia March 25, 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Transcript
The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Dr. David KhemakhemRiyadh, Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaMarch 25, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
100 countries
15 demandsectors
20 fueltypes
Energy Outlook Model
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2030
~ 60 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
CO2 Policies
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
~ 20 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
< 10 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
CO2 Policies
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Global fundamentals
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Billion
OECD China India
Age 0 – 14
Age 15 – 64
Age 65+
Africa
2010 2040
Source: World Bank
Energy Demand
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2020 2040
GDPTrillion 2005$
China
United States
2010-2040 AAGR %
5.6%
2.3%
1.8%Other OECD
Other Non
OECD
3.9%World2.8%
Quadrillion BTUs
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Energy Saved ~500
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Demand
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
1.9%
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2020 20400.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2000 2020 2040
Middle East Energy Trends
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
1.4%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
3.6%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Energy Demand by SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity Demand
Energy Demand by Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
2.4% 0.4%
5.8% 1.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By CountryQuadrillion BTUs
Iran
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Iraq
Rest of Middle East
Middle East Energy Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Other
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Industrial
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Industry Energy Demand Increases
Chemicals
Manufacturing & Industry
Energy Industry
Other
PlasticsPlastics
FertilizerFertilizer
PaintPaint
SteelSteel AutomobilesAutomobiles
TextilesTextiles
Liquid FuelsLiquid Fuels
CoalCoal Natural GasNatural Gas
AgricultureAgriculture
LubricantsLubricantsAsphaltAsphalt
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Quadrillion BTUsWorld Middle East
Industrial Energy Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Oil
Gas
Renewables
Coal
By RegionQuadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
OECD
China
India
Rest of Non
OECD
Market Heat
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
Demand by RegionMBDOE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
‘40
‘25
‘10
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2020 2040
Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2025
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv
2040
Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Incremental Vehicle Efficiency GainsMiles per Gallon
Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/Caspian
PipelineLNG
Local UnconventionalLocal Conventional
By Type
Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Middle East Natural Gas Demand
Gas By SectorBCFD
Electricity Generation
Industrial
Res/Comm
Transportation0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Other
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
North America Energy Balance
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
Oil
Regional Supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2025 2040
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net ImportsNet Imports
Net Exports
0
25
50
75
100
125
2010 2025 2040
Regional Supply
Total Energy BalanceNet Exports
Net ImportsNet Imports
Regional Supply
Net Exports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Asia Pacific Energy Balance
0
30
60
90
2010 2025 2040
Oil
Domestic Supply
0
30
60
90
2010 2025 2040
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Net ImportsNet Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2025 2040
Domestic Supply
Total Energy Balance
Net ImportsNet Imports
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Percent of World TotalBy Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.
He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences.
David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world.
He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research.
In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas.
In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field.
In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager.
The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond.
David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.
