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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Todd Onderdonk Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee March 1, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
100 countries
15 demand sectors
20 fuel types
Energy Outlook Model
technology & policy
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Economic and Energy Evolution
Quadrillion BTUs Global Demand By Fuel
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
Hydro
2040 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
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Population Growth Drives Energy Demand
Billion World Population
1800 2040 1900 2000
Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil
0
3
6
9
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion
OECD China India
Age 0 – 14
Age 15 – 64
Age 65+
Africa
2010 2040
Source: World Bank
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand
Trillion 2005 $ OECD GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs OECD Demand
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand
Trillion 2005 $ Non OECD GDP
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs Non OECD Demand
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDP MBTU / 2005$ GDP
-0.9%
-1.9%
Energy per GDP Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
~500 Quads
Quadrillion BTUs Demand
What demand would be without efficiency gains
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDP MBTU / 2005$ GDP Energy per GDP
Constant 2010 Level
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
2010
2025 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
Personal MBDOE
Commercial MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty Vehicles
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of Vehicles
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2025
Millions of Vehicles Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
Other OECD China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv
2040
Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
On-Road MPG
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG
2010
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles
Rest of OECD
Rest of Non OECD
China
United States
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Conv. Gasoline
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV Natural gas/LPG
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2015 2040
Heavy Duty Efficiency Tempers Growth
Intensity BOE / 2005$k GDP
Non OECD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2015 2040
By Region MBDOE
OECD
Non OECD
OECD
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
MBDOE OECD
Gasoline
Ethanol
Diesel
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil Other
MBDOE Non OECD
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Industrial
30% Global Industrial
demand grows by 30%
from 2010 to 2040.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs By Region
China
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
Industrial Fuel Demand Diversifies
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'10 - '40 '10 - '40
Electricity
Oil
OECD Non OECD
Fuel Growth Quadrillion BTUs
Coal
Gas
Other
India & Africa
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Residential / Commercial
40% By 2040, electricity will
fuel 40% of the world’s
residential & commercial
demand.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
By Sector
Residential/Commercial Demand Grows
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'10 - '40 '10 - '40
Electricity
Other
OECD Non OECD
Fuel Growth Quadrillion BTUs
Biomass
0
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs By Region
China
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
0 20 40 60 80 100
Electricity Consumption
MWh per capita
Electricity per Capita
1990
2025
2040 United States
Europe OECD
China
India
GDP per capita - 2005$k
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1990 2015 2040
Electricity per GDP MWh / 2005$k
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWh By Sector
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs Fuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
$0/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWh
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 2030
*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
$60/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWh
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 2030
*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
k TWh
Gas
Nuclear Coal
Wind
Other Renewables
Gas w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
Electricity Supply Varies Globally
United States k TWh China
Oil
k TWh Europe
* Generation by Type
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Billion Tons World
OECD
Non OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mix
2010 2040
Billion Tons OECD
Growth Efficiency
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2040
Non OECD Billion Tons
CO2 Emissions Moderate
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOE Liquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
2040
Remaining Resource
Cumulative Production
TBO Resource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America*
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases
BCFD Production by Type
Unconventional Conventional
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BCFD Demand by Region
North America
Middle East
AP Non OECD
Rest of OECD
Russia/Caspian
Rest of Non OECD
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ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies
BCFD North America
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
BCFD Europe Asia Pacific
BCFD
Conventional
Pipeline
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
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0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Percent Global Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
Percent By Region
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
Southeast Asia
India
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
US Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear Biomass
Other Renewables
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0
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 20400
30
60
90
120
150
1990 2015 2040
Fuel Demand Differs Between U.S. & China
Quadrillion BTUs U.S.
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
China
Renewables
Gas
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Coal
Nuclear Renewables
Gas
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
Full Hybrid CNG Plug-inHybrid
Elec0
10
20
30
40
50
Conv. Full Hybrid CNG Plug-inHybrid
Elec
$k
Today’s Vehicle Technology Choices
5-Year Cost of Ownership
Vehicle Cost*
Fuel Cost
$k Cost & Savings
Cost above Conventional
Fuel Savings
*Excludes Maintenance and Insurance
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Global Capacity Utilized
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
'10 '40 '10 '40 '10 '40
Global Capacity GW
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
k TWh By Generation
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
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ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'10 '20 '30 '40
SolarGeothermalBiomass/Other*WindHydro
Renewables Gain Share
United States Percent of TWh
Europe Percent of TWh
Asia Pacific Percent of TWh
*Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
