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A View to 2030 December 13, 2005 The Outlook for Energy
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A View to 2030

December 13, 2005

The Outlook for Energy

Cautionary Statement

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

A View to 2030

Jaime SpellingsGeneral Manager, Corporate PlanningDecember 13, 2005

The Outlook for Energy

Energy Outlook Basis

• Energy Outlook Buildup – Energy demand by countries and end use sectors– Total energy growth linked to economic drivers– Incorporates efficiency improvements– Fuel shares consider trends, economics, supply

• Oil & Gas supply outlook– Ultimate recoverable resources estimated– Production profiles modeled for key countries

• Outlook based on key assumptions– Growing population, improving living standards– Ongoing improvement in efficiency– Timely and adequate energy supplies– Technology advances for supply and demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Energy Supply/Demand

MBDOE

Global Population - 80% in Developing Areas

0.4

Africa0.8

Middle East0.2

Russia/Caspian0.3

0.4

Europe0.6

Asia Pacific0.2

Asia Pacific3.2

Latin America

North America

World6.0 B

2000

2000 Non-OECD

OECD

Source: World Bank

Global Population - 2030

Latin America0.6

1.1%

Africa1.3

1.7%

Middle East0.3

1.7%

Russia/Caspian0.3

- 0.2%

North America0.5

0.8% Europe0.6

0.1%

Asia Pacific0.2

0.0%

Asia Pacific4.2

0.9%

World8.0 B

0.9% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECD

OECD6.0 B

Source: World Bank

Global GDP - 20% in Developing Areas

OECD

World$31.5 T ($2000)

2000

2000

Non-OECD

$11.1

$1.5

Europe$8.9

Asia Pacific$5.7

Africa$0.6

Middle East$0.6

Russia/Caspian$0.4

Asia Pacific$2.7North America

Latin America

Global GDP - 2030

OECD

World$70.6 T ($2000)

2.7% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECD

North America

2.6%

$24.2

Latin America

2.9%

$3.5

Europe

2.0%

$16.2

Asia Pacific

1.6%

$9.2

Africa

3.4%

$1.6

Middle East

2.8%

$1.4

Russia/Caspian

4.0%

$1.2

Asia Pacific

5.4%

$13.3

$31.5

North America68

0.6%

World334 MBDOE

1.6% per year

2000

2000

2030

2030

Non-OECD

Latin America

2.2%

18 Africa

2.0%

19

Middle East

1.9%

19

Russia/Caspian

1.3%

27

Asia Pacific

3.2%

113

Europe47

0.8%

Asia Pacific23

0.9%

OECD

Energy Use - 2030

205

Energy Intensity - Declining Trend Accelerates

0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Non-OECD

OECD

Barrels of Oil Equivalent per $K GDP

-1.8%

-1.5%

-1.2%

Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2000

-1.4%

2000 - 2030

Energy Demand Grows

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1.6%

1.7%1.7%

2.0%2.0%

1.7%1.7%

1.3%1.3%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals

Heat/Other *Heat/Other *

Energy by UseMBDOE

* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Energy Demand Grows

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy by Type

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

MBDOE

1.6%

1.8%1.8%

1.4%1.4%

1.8%1.8%

1.6%1.6%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1.6%

1.7%1.7%

2.0%2.0%

1.7%1.7%

1.3%1.3%

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals

Heat/Other *Heat/Other *

Energy by UseMBDOE

* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Oil and Gas Remain Predominant

0

1

2

3

4

1980 2005 20300

20

40

60

80

1980 2005 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar

NuclearNuclear

HydroHydro

Biomass,MSW

Biomass,MSW

Wind & Solar

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

1.8%1.8%

1.6%1.6%

1.8%1.8%

1.4%1.4%

1.6%

1.3%1.3%

1.9%1.9%

1.4%1.4% 9.6%9.6%

11.1%

SolarSolar

WindWind

12.4%12.4%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Oil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

OECD

MBD

ElectricityElectricity

TransportTransport

ChemicalsChemicals

Heat/OtherHeat/Other

Light Duty Vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

Non-OECD

MBD

0.1%0.1%

0.5%0.5%

0.6%0.6%

- 2.1%- 2.1%

0.3%

1.9%1.9%

3.4%3.4%

3.4%3.4%

0.6%0.6%

2.5%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Vehicle Fleet

North America

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

Million

Light Duty Fleet

GasolineGasoline

1.2%

Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

Million

0.9%

Asia Pacific

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2010 2020 2030

Million

4.7%

DieselDiesel

Hybrid

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Vehicle Fuels

Asia Pacific

Light Duty Fuels

MBDOE

2.4%2.4%3.4%3.4%

3.8%3.8%

3.7%

Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

MBDOE

-0.5%

1.8%1.8%

-1.6%-1.6%

North America

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2010 2020 2030

MBDOE

CNG/LPG

GasolineGasoline

0.1%

2.6%2.6%

0.0%0.0%

DieselDiesel

Conventional Oil Resources - 2005

North America

Latin America

Europe1.0

Middle East0.3

Africa

0.1

Asia Pacific

0.4

Russia/Caspian

2.2Remaining

Produced YE 2004

3.2 TBO

World

0.2

0.2

0.1

Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO)

* Excludes frontier resources – oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil

Worldwide Liquids Production ex. OPEC Crude

NonNon-OPEC Crude + CondensateOPEC Crude + Condensate

OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGLNGL’’ss

BiofuelsOtherOther

Oil SandsOil Sands

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980

MBD

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

NonNon-OPEC Crude + CondensateOPEC Crude + Condensate

OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGLNGL’’ ss

BiofuelsOtherOther

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980

MBD

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Call on OPEC

~28

OPEC Crude

Liquids Demand

~30

~37~47

Oil SandsOil Sands

Technology Essential to Meet Supply ChallengesReservoir ImagingHarsh Environments

Enhanced Oil RecoveryMeans Field, Texas

CO2flood

1982 1990 1995 2003

Cumulative Production (MBO)

Prod

uctio

n R

ate

(KB

D)

120 260

28% 32% 35% 40%

Actual Production

Recovery5

10

15Extended Reach Drilling

6 miles6 miles

Gas Demand - Regional Split

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2005 2030

North America

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2005 20300

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2005 20300

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Europe Asia Pacific

BCFD BCFD BCFD

ElectricityElectricityChemicalsChemicals

Heat/OtherHeat/Other

0.2%0.2%

1.3%1.3%

1.1%1.1%

1.1%1.1%

2.4%2.4%

2.4%2.4%

3.7%3.7%

0.5%

1.5%

3.6%3.6%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

3.6%

MBDOE

Growing Reliance on Gas Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100BCFD

North America Europe Asia Pacific

Local Production

Long Pipelines

2000

2000

2030

2030

LNG

Coal Demand - Regional Split

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 2030

North America

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 2030

Europe Asia PacificMBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

ElectricityElectricity

Heat/Other -0.6%

0.5%0.5%

0.1%

0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%

3.9%3.9%

0.4%

1.7%1.7%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

3.1%

Power Generation - Regional Split

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 2005 2030

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

North America Europe Asia Pacific

OilOil HydroHydro

CoalCoal

GasGasNuclearNuclear

Other *

* Other includes Biomass, Wind and Solar

1.1%1.1%

0.5%0.5%

0.8%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

1.3%1.3%0.7%0.7%

0.1%0.1%

1.0%

2.4%2.4%

2.7%2.7%

3.9%3.9%

3.6%

3.7%3.7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

CO2 Growth - Primarily Non-OECD

OECDOECD

Non-OECDNon-OECD

Billion Tonnes CO2

Area

Growth 2000 - 2030

2.7%2.7%

0.5%0.5%

1.7%

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Technology Critical to Efficiency Improvements

CombustionVehicle Advancements

Fuels

The Outlook for Energy to 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Energy by TypeMBDOE

• Energy demand will increase 50% by 2030– Driven by economic progress & population growth

• 80% of energy demand growth in non-OECD

• Energy efficiency trends to accelerate

• Oil, gas and coal remain predominant– Oil resources adequate to sustain growth– Gas market increasingly global– Coal growth linked to non-OECD economic gains

• Technology critical to meeting energy challenges

A View to 2030

Jaime SpellingsGeneral Manager, Corporate PlanningDecember 13, 2005

The Outlook for Energy

The Outlook for Energy

For more information regarding ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook please visit the link below:

www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook


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