The Perfect Storm Or a sign of things to

come?

William A. Price, Ph.D.

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry

NASA satellite photo, 8:20 AM, Aug. 29

Katrina, which cut across Florida the week prior leaving nine dead and massive damage, intensified into a Category 5 storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, reaching top winds of 175 mph before weakening as it neared the coast.

Katrina on Aug. 27, 2005 NASA

Chandeleur Islands

100 Km east of New Orleans lies this north-south chain of islands. Top: July 2001Bottom: Aug. 31, 2005

Hurricane Rita on Sept. 21, 2005

IR image from NOAA

Prediction from Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), 2001 “The intensity of the strongest hurricanes is projected to increase due to the higher sea surface temperatures in a globally warming world. Precipitation from hurricanes is also likely to increase appreciably, leading to flooding and mudslides. In addition, hurricane storm surges will be larger due to sea-level rise from melting ice and snow and the thermal expansion of ocean waters.”

“At greatest risk of larger storm surges, of course, are low-lying coastal areas along the Gulf Coast, such as Florida's Panhandle, Alabama's Gulf shores, and southern Louisiana.”

# of Hurricanes with Winds > 130 mph

(Categories 4 and 5) Phila. Inq. 9/16/05

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

EastPacific

WestPacific

NorthAtlantic

SWPacific

Indian

1975-19891990-2004

Glaciers are receding "Receding and wasting glaciers are a chief telltale sign

that global climate change is real and accelerating," said Jeffrey Kargel, a glacier expert with the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Scientists say the melt rate has accelerated dramatically since the mid-1990s, which was the hottest decade in a thousand years.

A glacier in the Peruvian Andes, Qori Kalis, is losing as much ice in one week as it used to surrender in a year.

In Alaska, the glaciers are losing an average of 6 feet of thickness a year.

Glaciers in Norway

Mt. Kilimanjaro’s icecap has lost 82% of its area since 1912. Dr. Vincent Keipper was in

the right place at the right time to get this photo of the crumbling Furtwängler Glacier on Mt. Kilimanjaro. The photo is dramatic evidence of the glacier's recession. Room-size blocks of ice tumbled across the trail Keipper had hiked the day before.

National Geographic

Are we partially responsible? A 2-foot snowfall in L.A., Jan. 2005 124 mph winds in Scandinavia shut nuclear power plants and

cut power to hundreds of thousands in Great Britain, February Missouri River water levels drop to lowest in recorded history,

June Worst drought on record triggered wildfires and record low

water levels in Portugal and Spain, July Arizona heat wave kept temperatures over 110oF for over 2

weeks, claiming 21 lives, July 37 inches of rain fall in Bombay in one day killing over 1000 The 5 hottest years on record: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2001, 1997 Swordfish are now being caught off the New Jersey coast

What is happening to Tuvalu?

Tuvalu: population 10,000

What the Islanders say:

“Cyclones and tropical storms have gotten much worse since the 1980’s.”

“At the northern tip of Funafuti, a gun emplacement, built on dry land by U.S. soldiers in WWII, now sits 25 feet offshore.”

“At the southern end of the island, old-timers say the meeting hall used to stand in the middle of the village. It now is waterfront property.”

“One small island has drowned.”

Animals Behaving Strangely In the United States, some warblers are flying north to

Canada. In Costa Rica, toucans are moving higher up into the

mountains. A Norwegian man fishing in a fjord had a shock when

he landed a John Dory, a fish more usually found in temperate waters off southern Europe or Africa.

Salmon had been swimming through the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia into the Chukchi Sea.

Mosquitoes carrying the West Nile virus reach the United States from lower latitudes.

CO2 emissions are on the rise Emission rates for the most important anthropogenic

greenhouse gas, CO2, have risen 120-fold in the past 150 years. Whereas in the 19th century emissions were overwhelmingly from deforestation and other land use changes, they are now predominantly from burning fossil fuels.

A direct product of industrialization, emissions now amount to 6 billion tons of carbon a year, or around 1 ton of carbon per head of the world's population.

Emissions are very uneven. Per-capita North American emissions are 18 times those of Africa, nine times those of

Asia and 2.3 times those of Europe.

The Greenhouse Effect

Like panes of glass, gases in the atmosphere allow high energy UV radiation to penetrate and warm the earth. The same gases block some of the lower energy IR radiation (reflected heat). This naturally warms our planet.

Here is a month by month record of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere going

back to 1958 and ending in 2003.

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppm) From

1860 to 2000.

The Earth’s Circulation System The global ocean

circulation system, often called the Thermohaline Conveyor (TC), transports heat throughout the planet. White sections represent warm surface currents. Purple sections represent deep cold currents.

Thermohaline Conveyor in the Oceans

Subpolar seas bordering the North Atlantic have become noticeably less salty since the mid-1960s, especially in the last decade. This is the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in the era of modern instruments. This has resulted in a freshening of the deep ocean in the North Atlantic, which in the past disrupted the Ocean Conveyor and caused abrupt climate changes.

Temperature variations

Various temperature predictions to 2100

Correlation between Temperature and

CO2 concentration over 450,000 years

CO2 and Temperature: a Parallel course

The world is warming up. Average temperatures are half a degree centigrade higher than a century ago. The nine warmest years this century have all occurred since 1980, and the 1990s were probably the warmest decade of the second millennium. Pollution from emissions such as carbon dioxide and methane is at least partly to blame.

Population, CO2 levels and Temperature1950-2000

Some Predictions: Unless the world curbs growing

CO2 output, concentrations in the air are likely to double from pre-industrial

levels by 2080, and may warm the world by 3oC (>5oF); climate models predict that land areas will warm twice as much as

the oceans; high latitudes will warm more quickly in winter; Arctic ice will melt causing more heat absorption (less reflection by

ice), hence even more warming as well; salinity of polar seas is dropping due to melting icecaps thus slowing

the thermohaline conveyor. there will be substantial changes in precipitation, especially in the

tropics; There is a high risk of extreme weather, including intense El Niño

events in the Pacific Ocean, hurricanes in coastal areas and droughts in continental interiors;

Tony Auth weighs in.

Is it a myth?