The Periodicals and Some Notes ThereonSource: Operations Research, Vol. 7, No. 3 (May - Jun., 1959), pp. 410-414Published by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/166860 .

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410 The Analysts' Bookshelf

IV. Psychological factors in decision-making (17 items) V. Decision-making in small groups (113 items)

General and theoretical material (63 items) Productivity of group effort (8 items) The effect of conflict and competition within the group (8 items) Power in small group decision-making (6 items) Group size as related to decision accuracy (20 items) Group pressures on individual judgment (8 items)

VI. Community decision-making (21 items) VII. Communications and information handling (35 items)

VIII. Mathematics and statistics in decision-making (63 items) Decision theory (18 items) Game theory (16 items) Operations research (29 items)

These sections are followed by an author and a title index. The editors' statements in the Introduction, quoted above, seem accurate

enough. Ninety-three per cent of the items were published after 1945; material published after 1952 accounts for 56 per cent of the total. The abstracts of the items average about 70 words in length; they are for the most part extremely clear and give about as accurate a description of the contents of the item as is possible within such limits. There is no attempt to discriminate among the items with respect to importance; one might wish for the designation of a subset of these 420 items as the 'classics' in the literature on decision-making.

As must be expected with publications of this sort, neither the method of classi- fication nor the method of selection will find universal approval. In this particular case, however, it seems clear that the methods employed have resulted in an ex- tremely valuable guide to the literature, and its editors deserve the thanks of everyone working in the field. Since this literature is expanding so rapidly, it is hoped that this or a similar bibliography will be kept up to date by means of newer editions. It is also hoped (but not actually expected) that subsequent editions will bear a more reasonable price.

J. SAYER MINAS The Ohio State University

THE PERIODICALS

Operational Research Quarterly

December 1958 M. G. KENDALL, The Teaching of Operational Research A. W. SWAN, Operational Research Today and Tomorrow B. D. HANKIN, The Communication of the Results of Operational Research to the Makers

of Policy

Management Science

January 1959

RoY RADNER, The Application of Linear Programming to Team Decision Problems GERALD J. GLASSER, Game Theory and Cumulative Voting for Corporate Directors A. SCHILD, On Inventory, Production and Employment Scheduling

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The Analysts' Bookshelf 411

D. G. TYNDALL, Welfare Pricing and Transport Costs JOHN GESSFORD, Scheduling the Use of Water Power RICHARD C. KAO AND THOMAS C. ROWAN, A Model for Personnel Recruiting and

Selection EDWIN S. MILLS, Discussion: A Note on the Asymptotic Behavior of an Optimal Pro-

curement Policy C. DERMAN AND M. KLEIN, Discussion: A Note on the Optimal Depletion of Inventory

Naval Research Logis tics Quarterly

December 1958 J. H. GARRETT, JR., Characteristics of Usage of Supply Items Aboard Naval Ships and

the Significance to Supply Management R. BELLMAN AND S. DREYFUS, A Bottleneck Situation Involving Interdependent

Industries J. R. JACKSON, Multiple Servers with Limited Waiting Space M. M. FLOOD, Operations Research and Logistics S. G. ALLEN, Redistribution of Total Stock over Several User Locations R. M. THRALL, C. H. COOMBS, AND W. CALDWELL, Linear Model for Evalvating Com-

plex Systems

Journal of Industrial Engineering (selected articles)

January-February 1959

WILLIAM F. POUNDS AND ERWIN P. KRAAI, Statistical Scheduling of a Highly Mech- anized Production Facility

HARVEY M. WAGNER, Statistical Decision Theory as a Method for Information Proc- essing

LEON GAINEN, Inventory Control-Exploiting the Electronic Data Processor in the Air Force

R. W. CONWAY AND ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., The Manufacturing Progress Function RICHARD M. JACOBS, The Compatibility of Value Engineering Analysis and Reliability

AND SOME NOTES THEREON

CAHIERS du Centre d'J~tudes de Recherche Opdrationelle is the name given to the latest of the national journals of operations research. Published in Belgium, it is to appear quarterly and will include general and original articles and case histories. The first issue has review articles on Monte Carlo methods and on information theory. Inquiries should be addressed to P. P. Gillis, President of the Centre, at 267 avenue Moliere, Brussels, Belgium.

THE Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics announces a new periodical, The SIAM Review. It is to feature, on an intermediate level, articles of interest to industrial mathematicians. The table of contents of the first issue (January 1959) suggests that the new journal will be of considerable interest to those in operations research.

FRED HANSSMANN at Case Institute of Technology advises that Mitteilungsblatt fuir Mathematische Statistik and Statistische Vierteljahresschrift have been combined as Metrika, a journal for both theoretical and applied statistics, published

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412 The Analysts' Bookshelf

by Physika-Verlag in Wiirzburg. It carries articles, mostly quite technical in nature, in German, English, and French.

Dr. Hanssmann also calls attention to a rather long article by G. FOURNIER

AND E. VENTURA in Annales des Mines for November 1958 (pp. 709-793). Under the title of "A study of the Optimal Structure of the Refining Industry and the Transport of Petroleum Products," the authors investigate a basic long-range problem of the French petroleum industry: Given existing refineries and their characteristics, and given a number of potential locations for new refineries, what is the optimal set of refineries to have? They consider the quantities of crude oil bought from various sources, the quantities (if any) allocated to each refinery, and the quantities of product allocated from the refineries to the centers of con- sumption. Since each possible new refinery contributes a fixed cost only if a nonzero quantity of crude is allocated to it, and since the refineries have increasing marginal costs and other more complicated cost features, the cost function is nonlinear. An electronic computer was used in solving the problem.

STATING that "Washington picks their brains," Newsweek (January 19, 1959) writes about "The Fabulous 'Think' Companies," mentioning Rand, ORO, Stan- ford Research Institute, Arthur D. Little, OEG, and IDA.

RUSSELL L. ACKOFF has submitted a highly enthusiastic review of the January 1959 issue of Behavioral Science: "Each of the three articles contained in this issue will be of interest to those operations researchers who are interested in de- cision theory. In addition, one of the critiques is a significant, if not major, con- tribution to an understanding of game theory."

Of "A Model of Riskless Choice" by ERNEST W. ADAMS AND ROBERT FAGOT,

he says: "The model deals with choices among pairs of alternatives that are evaluated with respect to two criteria. The model is based on an additive utility function for which an empirical test is provided. An experiment applying the model to personnel selection on the basis of 'intelligence' and 'ability to handle people' is described."

The second article is "A Model for the Experimental Measurement of the Utility of Gambling" by HALSEY L. ROYDEN, PATRICK SUPPES, AND KAROL WALSH.

Dr. Ackoff points out that "this theory takes into account a person's like or dislike of gambling. An experiment based on the model was applied to a group of under- graduate students and a group of sailors. The model was found to be significantly better than a model without this property for predicting the sailors' behavior and was significantly worse for the students."

In the article, "Some Personality Correlates of Decision Making under Con- ditions of Risk," by ALVIN SCODEL, PHILBURN RATOOSH, AND J. SAYER MINAS,

"the experimental evidence is provided for the necessity of incorporating per- sonality variables in decision-making models." Dr. Ackoff lists seven principal results of the experiments, probably the most interesting of which is the last: "Subjects who are sophisticated about probabilities and expected values are no more likely to maximize expected dollar value than others."

The critique to which Dr. Ackoff refers is that of game theory by ANATOL

RAPAPORT: "Because of the compactness and depth of this article it is difficult

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The Analysts' Bookshelf 413

to abstract and still convey its value. I resort, therefore, to extracting from its conclusions in the hope of provoking others to read this piece":

Certain problems appear to be incapable of 'solution' by game theoretic tools. ... In attempting to rectify these inadequacies, workers in game theory had to intro- duce concepts which seem to derive from psychology, sociology, and even ethics. They have always attempted, however, to axiomatize these concepts.... The process of axiomatization ... tends to extend the scope of application of rigorous deductions to areas hitherto treated more or less intuitively. . . At times this axiomatization seems destructive, [but] it may lead to a rethinking.... In this compelling reexamina- tion of social problems in a new light rests the greatest conceptual value of game theory and its derived disciplines.

THE assistance of the Operations Research Group at Case in expanding the coverage of the periodical literature in "The Analysts' Bookshelf"-which assistance is hereby gratefully acknowledged-is further documented by BURTON V. DEAN'S

review of W. F. BAUER, "The Monte Carlo Method," in the Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics for December 1958. In describing the article, Dr. Dean states, "Whereas model approximations are required to solve these problems analytically, the accuracy of the results using this method is limited by computer costs and capacities. Further analytic work is required in estimating errors in terms of sample size so that computer requirements may be determined.... The method is sometimes used in formulating and solving decision-making problems such as in the design of production, maintenance, inventory, and distribution systems. These applications are usually designated as operational games and simulations and refer to management and control systems. They are not well documented in the published scientific literature for two reasons: (1) analytic methods of formulating, constructing, solving, and evaluating management games and simulations have not been developed, and (2) the validity, generality, and applicability of the results are in question."

IN Aero/Space Engineering for February 1959, CDR. GEORGE W. HOOVER, USN' makes an eloquent plea for "Man-Machine Integration in Space Vehicles." He points out that the. maintenance and restoration of an adequate working environ- ment for pilots and other personnel of high-performance aircraft has lagged the development of the aircraft and has resulted in undesirable compromises and at- tendant loss of efficiency in some cases-and that measures should now be taken to avoid this situation in space vehicles.

PETER F. DRUCKER comments on the "Potentials of Management Science" in the January-February 1959 Harvard Business Review: "Instead of a management science which supplies knowledge, concepts, and discipline to manager and entre- preneur, we may be developing a 'management gadget bag' of techniques for the efficiency expert." He cites the need for management science to respect itself as a distinct and genuine discipline that takes its subject matter seriously (for example, placing the proper emphasis on the role of risk and less on risk minimization). He concludes, "Of course, it is only in its infancy; real knowledge and understanding in vitally important areas may be decades away-may indeed never be obtained. But the work already done is exciting and powerful, and the talent at work is of a high order of competence, ability, and dedication."

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414 The Analysts' Bookshelf

In the same issue of HBR, WILLIAM J. PLATT AND N. ROBERT MAINS write under the title, "Pretest Your Long-Range Plans." They describe a decision laboratory for this purpose and conclude, "There are not now, and may never be, any all-embracing models in operations research that can be relied on to evaluate over-all long-range company planning. However, if management chooses, it can now begin to pretest its planning in the decision laboratory. The use of computer experimentation, business games, and ecological models should yield valuable test reports that can direct management toward better long-range plans."

BOOKS RECEIVED

THOMAS L. SAATY, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1959, 131 pages, $10.00.

EDWARD H. BOWMAN AND ROBERT B. FETTER, Editors, Analyses of Production Opera- tions, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Illinois, 1959, 485 pages, $9.55.

SOLOMON KULLBACK, Information Theory and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1959, 395 pages, $12.50

MOSES ABRAMOVITZ, et al., The Allocation of Economic Resources: Essays in Honor of Bernard Francis Haley, Stanford University Press, Stanford, California, 1959, 244 pages, $5.00.

ACHESON J. DUNCAN, Quality Control and Industrial Statistics (revised edition), Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Illinois, 1959, 946 pages, $10.80

Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Computer Applications Symposium, Armour Research Foundation, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, 1959, 153 pages, $3.00.

GUNNAR BLOM, Statistical Estimates and Transformed Beta-Variables, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, and Almqvist & Wiksell, Stockholm, 1958, 176 pages, $5.00.

DAN PEDOE, The Gentle Art of Mathematics, The Macmillan Company, New York, 1958, 143 pages, $3.50.

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