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Generatio
n 3 HEVs
2014
Early core market:6-15% of market
Generation 2 HEVs
2010
Fast followers: 3-5% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market
Generation 1 HEVs
1996 (Japan) 2004Early market:1-2%
HEV market developed in 3 phases:
Japan: 3rd generation HEV sales reached 19% in 2012,
Prius is best selling vehicle 4 years in row
California: 3rd generation HEV sales reached 7-8% 2012, Prius best selling vehicle in CA in 2012 (60,000)
USA: 3rd generation HEV sales 3-4%,2012 = 434,645
2
6
PEV market: glass half empty or half full?
• Stated annual USA PEV sales goals of car makers– Volt goals 45,000 - actual 2012 sales 23,500– Leaf goals 20,000 - actual 2012 sales 9,819
• Climate & energy independence goals – California - 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 (5% of CA fleet) – USA: Obama - 1 million PEVs by 2015 (.3 % of USA
fleet)– Germany, France – 1 million EVs by 2020
7
Size of potential PEV market in California • 1991-95, 4 year, 4 step UCD study:
– A detailed project based on values, resources, vehicle purchase habits & travel needs of 600 CA households
– Main assumptions:• Hybrid household hypothesis: 2 vehicles: 1 BEV & 1• 80-120 miles of BEV range, PHEV 20 & 40• PEVs in midsize to compact sedans, priced close to ICE, • Competition from gasoline, CNG, diesel • no FCVs, no HEVs• Gasoline was $1.50, middle of SUV market growth
• BEVs: 15% of California annual sales• PHEVs: not as well understood, potentially larger
depending on prices…• CNGs: less than 5%
Wuppertal
Household Resources: A Small Percentage of Californians are Responsible for Most New Car
Purchases
8
(about 33% of the new vehicles sold.)
(In the last five years)
(about 67% of the new vehicles sold.)
Based on the CA sample of the NHTS 2009
Regulation: California Air Resources Board ZEV Program
Other states “adopting” CA rules: Oregon, Washington, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island
9
Governor’s Executive Order 2013
Current PEV price comparison
Vehicle Model MSRP
Purchase Price after Federal Tax
CreditLease Price per
Month
Chevrolet Volt $39,145 + $31,645 $299/mo
Nissan Leaf $28,800 - 34,800 $21,300 $200/mo
Prius PHEV $32,800 - 39,500 $30,300 $269 - $459
HEV Prius $24,000 $24,000
Toyota RAV4 EV $49,800 $42,300
Tesla Model S $67,000 $59,500 $500-600/mo
19/04/23
11
PEV Incentives
USA California
Tax credits $400 per kWh / 200,000 per manufacturer$2500 for Toyota Prius$7500 for Leaf$7500 for Volt
$2500 rebate
Registration NA
Roads HOV lanes
Electricity Time of Use and free electricity at many public & workplace chargers
12
Market trends in California for PEVs• USA:
– 250 million LDV vehicles– About 15 million vehicles sold per year
• California: – 23 million light duty vehicles total,– About 1.5 million vehicles sold per year (10% of
USA)• California PEV trends:
– More than 25,000 PEVs bought since 2010
– 45% of PEVs are BEVs vs. 34% in the US market. – PEV Sales last quarter of 2012:
• 2.5% of cars (1 in 40) (not including 138,000 trucks) 6,000 out of 232,512 cars sold in California
Wuppertal
Social context: PEVs sales in California are mostly in coastal communities 2010-2012
13
Regionalization of salesCalifornia coastal cities, Portland, Seattle, Washington, California Incentives: $2500 for ZEV & Advanced Technology (Volt), Allowed to drive in high occupant vehicle lanes (HOV)
2007 UCD survey: 53% of US new car buyers have a 110 plug within 25 ft. of where they park at night
Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008
15
16
Those with detached houses & garages were more likely to have home recharge potential
Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008
17
California PEV Household Characteristics 2012
• 95% of the vehicles are owned by private individuals, 4% by businesses & 1% by government & NGOs
• 83% have yearly income higher than $100K – 46% incomes is higher than $150K – 16% decline to state.• 96% live in single family dwelling• 96% own their house– 1% rent in San Diego study– 5% rent in other areas • 42% have solar panels– 18% consider installation– 40% have no plan to install • Mostly men, middle age, but shifting
BMW chose us to work with them on their MINI-E experiment in 2009-10, so we got to do some BEV
anthropology
• 1-year lease at $850/mo. + tax
• In-home charging stations (no public charging)
• Out of 550 MINI Es worldwide, 450 in US
PHEV center surveyed over 150 MINI E drivers & interviewed 39 households during the year
MINI E owners learn a lot about electricity, more than they knew about gasoline
• How far can I drive on a kWh?• Understanding of costs, efficiency• Regenerative braking new• Driving style and feeling for energy use
24
Most liked the MINI E & while it was impractical for some trips, drivers engaged in
developing their own EV Territory
• EV driving zone• Quiet driving
experience• Charging locations• BEV community• Geography of BEVs
(distances, uphills, downhills, routes)
• Technology for this zone (GIS systems) 25
MINI E drivers were most enthusiastic about the intersection of clean & fun
• Strong value intersection for buyers
• MINI E was quiet, smooth, easy to drive, fast
• Electric vehicle has special place in public values
26
New vehicle introduction takes time…
0%
10%
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100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Alt
ern
ativ
e V
ehic
le (
% o
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l L
DV
s) .
New vehicle sales
Total market penetration
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Comm
ercia
lizat
ion
Pre-C
omm
ercia
l
Sales
Proto
type D
emonstra
tion &
Product D
evelopm
ent
Researc
h &
Develo
pment (
R&D)
0%
10%
20%
30%
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60%
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100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Alt
ern
ativ
e V
ehic
le (
% o
f al
l L
DV
s) .
New vehicle sales
Total market penetration
Early
Comm
ercia
lizat
ion
Pre-C
omm
ercia
l
Sales
Proto
type D
emonstra
tion &
Product D
evelopm
ent
Researc
h &
Develo
pment (
R&D)
Generation 1 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs Generatio
n 3 PEVs
2010 202220182014
1-2% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market
Early core market:6-15% of market
PEVs (BEVs & PHEVs) market development
1st generation PEVs: partial conversions, loss leaders, ¼ scale production (less than 100,000 annual)
1st buyers (pioneers): High income, future focus, educated, willing to take risks.
Very regionalized: coastal Calif, Japan, Oslo, Portland Oregon: tech industries, regulations, high incentives
Charging system: home based, minimal public charging in non-optimal locations,
28
Generation 1 PEVs
Generation 2 PEVs Generatio
n 3 PEVs
2010 202220182014Early buyers 1-2%
3-5% of market 3-5% of market Early core market:6-15% of market
2nd generation PEVs market development
Generation 2 PEVs: purchases simplified, mass production, improved performance, dedicated platforms,
Fast followers: high income, still “future” focused, tech followers but social leaders in networks of first buyers
Market: intensifies in same regions
Charging system: simpler & optimized
29
Charging surveys: What constraints do they face and what do they want?
Charging models: What do we think they want & need?(Home, workplace, public, DC fast network design tools)
Data acquisition: What, where & when do they charge?(need to monitor charge use- disaggregated through vehicle systems)
(also issues of etiquette, social practice)
Drs. Michael Nicholas, Gil TalJustin Woodjack 31
Charge network design & rollout? Location, type, density, redundancy
Wuppertal
Point of Diminishing Returns Reached at 200 DC Fast Charge Locations
-model created with 1 day record for 30,000 California drivers
Survey Results (What do people want?)More than 1000 Leaf household responses
• Charging is needed (regional systems)– 80% of drivers went to “1 bar” 8%– 40% of drivers exceeded “home-based” range– 7% would need charging to return from work
• Charging is used– 30% charge out of home regularly– Level 1 is used more than level 2 at work (53%)– Level 2 is used more than level 1 elsewhere (78%)
• Charging is wanted– 65% of Leaf owners suggested charger locations,
mostly DC QC– Median distance home-QC was 44 miles (71 km)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
Wuppertal
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
4.8%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 1.2kW (L1)
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
4.8%1.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
Wuppertal
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% 4.8%
1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh. = 59%– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%
• QC accommodates up to 10% additional
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)
What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)
• Home Charging VMT– 60 Mile Veh.= 59%
– 80 Mile Veh. = 71%– 100 Mile Veh. = 79%
• L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5%
• L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%
• QC accommodates up to an additional 10% EV miles
4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)4.8%1.5%0.7%
4.2%
5.9%
5.7%
3.7%
2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al V
MT
% of Statewide VMT Enabled by Ch. Type80 Mile Range Vehicle, 200 QC
Unserved
3 or More Fast Charge Events2 Fast Charge Events
1 Fast Charge Event
Public 6.6kW (L2)
Work 6.6kW (L2)
Work 3.3kW (L2)
Work 1.2kW (L1)