The Phoenix Laboratory:
Collaborative, Interdisciplinary, and
Translational Research on Heat and Health
Sharon L. Harlan
School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Arizona State University
Prepared for Third Biannual NCAR Workshop on Climate and Health
July 12-17, 2009
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO
Thursday
Overview of the Urban Vulnerability to Climate
Change (UVCC) Project
Building Blocks for Coupled Natural and Human
Systems Research
Friday
Challenges of Interdisciplinary Science with
Examples from UVCC
Presentation Outline
Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change
National Science Foundation GEO-08161608
Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems
Program
September 1, 2008 – February 29, 2012
Partnership with researchers at UC Riverside, NASA
Johnson Space Center Image Analysis Laboratory,
University of Arizona and ASU including: – School of Human Evolution and Social Change
– Global Institute of Sustainability
– School of Computing and Informatics
– Department of Applied Biological Sciences
UVCC Research Team
Sociologist
Geoscientist Ecologist Physicist
K-12 Educ
Mathematician
Epidemiologist
Political Ecologist
Urban
Climatologist
Ecologist
GFDL
Scientist Geographer
Geographer
Horticulturist
Questions for Our Interdisciplinary
Climate/Health Research Team
What impact does the development and intensification of urban heat islands/global climate change have on health disparities?
Are people in certain types of neighborhoods more vulnerable to the health effects of extreme temperature?
What is the role of vegetation and other land covers in regulating neighborhood heat vulnerability?
How can neighborhood built environments be reconfigured to reduce negative health impacts of climate change in desert cities?
“Phoenix is a modern town of forty thousand people, and the
best kind of people too. A very small percentage of Mexicans,
Negroes, or foreigners” 1920 Chamber of Commerce Report
(courtesy of Bob Bolin)
Social History – Origins
of Residential Segregation
Climate History – Urbanization and
Rising Temperature in Phoenix
Source: Anthony Brazel
Vegetation Density Varies Widely in the
Phoenix Urbanized Area
Map prepared by Juan Declet-Barreto
Expanding Phoenix Heat Island
2 m Air Temperature Simulations
1700 LST 14 July 2003
Spatial resolution = 1 km
Source: Susanne Grossman-Clarke
Scientific Research Objective #1
Explain the heterogeneous temporal and spatial
character of complex urban heat riskscapes as an
emergent phenomenon of interacting processes that
involves:
• Time series analysis of changing land cover and surface temperature (1970 - 2000)
• Relationship to changing population profiles and residential segregation
• Cooling capacity of vegetation and human comfort in neighborhoods
Residential Segregation by Income in
Phoenix Study Area
Census tract median annual (1999) household
income ranging from black ($10,000) to white
($170,000).
Neighborhoods and Socio-Ecological
Gradients of Vulnerability
Cities are human-built landscapes of many inequalities.
In poor neighborhoods, landscapes with sparse vegetation
expose residents to the elements.
Coping resources for climate adaptation are inadequate.
Photo: Nancy Jones Photo: Sara Grineski
A Closer Look at Vegetation
Historic Anglo Phoenix
Black Canyon Freeway
Object Based Image Classification
– National Agriculture Imagery Project, 1 m pixel (March 2003)
Surface Energy Balance – Cooling Capacity
of Vegetation for Human Comfort
Weather Research Forecast (WRF) Model Simulations
Scientific Research Objective # 2
Assess the current vulnerability of people in different neighborhood microclimates to chronic and episodic heat-related health hazards.
• Measure morbidity, mortality in relation to neighborhood environmental characteristics
• Community participation research in vulnerable neighborhoods – risk, resources, coping
• Partnerships for change
Arizona HealthQuery Database
• AZHQ is a unique data resource
– Complete data -- Identifying heat-related cases
• AZHQ contains information about all inpatient and ED
visits, as well as information relating to causes of
death, ambulatory visits, pharmacy, etc.
– Integrated data -- Identifying risk factors of
patients
• AZHQ contains identifiable and linked data from over
40 organizations allowing researchers to view a
patient’s medical history
• CHiR working with UVCC team to provide
de-identified geo-referenced data for analyses
Hospitalizations for Heat Related
Syndromes
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004-0
0
2004-0
6
2004-1
2
2004-1
8
2004-2
4
2004-3
0
2004-3
6
2004-4
2
2004-4
8
2005-0
1
2005-0
7
2005-1
3
2005-1
9
2005-2
5
2005-3
1
2005-3
7
2005-4
3
2005-4
9
2006-0
3
2006-0
9
2006-1
5
2006-2
1
2006-2
7
2006-3
3
2006-3
9
2006-4
5
2006-5
1
2007-0
3
2007-0
9
2007-1
5
2007-2
1
2007-2
7
2007-3
3
2007-3
9
2007-4
5
2007-5
1
Temperature Visits per 10k
Week
Heat-Related Syndromes
Avg High
We would like to work with you as
partners. Queremos trabajar en
conjunto con ustedes
:
Talking
Dialogando
Measuring
Tomando
mediciones
Mapping
Creando
Mapas
Community Partners in Central City South
Scientific Research Objective # 3
Build, implement, and visualize a spatial system
dynamics model as an integrated platform to:
Test hypotheses about complex interactions
between human manipulation of the
environment and induced climate response.
Compare alternative future scenarios of heat-
related health vulnerability.
System Dynamics Approach
Downscaling of Global Climate Model
Output Using Regional Climate Models
Global Climate Model
simulates large scale
circulations. Spatial resolution is too low for
capturing local effects.
Regional Climate Model
receives initial and
boundary conditions from
Global Climate Model.
www.co2science.org/
Mesoscale considers
atmospheric phenomena with
horizontal scales ranging from a few to several hundred
kilometers.
WRF: Software package,
which simulates the temporal
and spatial development of
atmospheric processes.
Prediction of meteorological
variables with a spatial resolution of ~ 1 km.
WRF Model
Supports quantifying effects of potential global
climate change and urbanization on near-surface air
temperature and humidity in the Phoenix region.
Quantify potential future riskscape in terms of air
temperature and cooling capacity.
Supports understanding of variability in
vulnerability to heat stress, heat related illnesses
and related social injustice.
Applications of Regional Atmospheric
Modeling in the UVCC Project
Educational Impact Objective # 1 Develop innovative programs for teaching and learning about climate with active participation by low-income, minority residents in understanding and mitigating the impacts of extreme heat in their neighborhoods. Linking with:
• Chain Reaction Magazine
–Articles on Research & Researchers
–Urban Heat Island module (ITEST grant)
• AZ Dept of Environmental Quality
–Distribute Chain Reaction & module in classrooms & at community events
• Health/phys ed teachers and nurses at schools
Educational Impact Objectives # 2 & 3
Create university curriculum and training for
graduate students on human dimensions of climate
change and environmental justice.
Make research results accessible to the policy
community in order to promote better decision-
making on informed early-warning systems, heat-
illness prevention, and community design and
adaptation.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Key
pubs
appear; PASS
2006
IGERT in
Urban
Ecology Workshop PASS
2001
Stage 1:
CAP LTER
Involvement
Stage 3:
UVCC Project
Funded by NSF CNH $1.4 M
Stage 2:
Neighborhood
Ecosystems Funded by
NSF
Biocomplexity $107.5 K
Evolution of the UVCC Project
UVCC Runner
up at NSF Collaboration grows: adds
modelers, plant sciences, and
epidemiology, and more social science
Institutional contexts change
Stage 1: Laying the groundwork in
the Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER
Proximity
Affinity/Self-selection
Communication
Respect: overcoming disciplinary chauvinism
Defining common intellectual terrain
Central Arizona – Phoenix Long-
Term Ecological Research Project
Urban Ecology –
How do the patterns and processes of
urbanization alter ecological conditions of the
city and its surrounding environment, and how
do ecological consequences of development
feed back to the social system to generate
future changes?
Integration of Social & Biophysical Science
Perspectives in Study Design
Theories –
Ecology - Patch heterogeneity in urban landscapes
Sociology - Residential segregation in human settlement
Scales of Measurement –
Region
Neighborhood
Gradients – Ecological - rural to urban
Sociological – Socioeconomic, cultural, demographic
Value Added by Linking Human Health to
Heterogeneous Urban Ecological Conditions
Most studies examine city-wide weather-related morbidity and mortality related to characteristics of people who are physiologically susceptible to heat - (e.g., young, elderly, ill, disabled).
We study health risks from heat exposure related to variations in the characteristics of places within the city –vegetation, land use, built environment, and microclimates.
This helps us to understand variability in human exposure, vulnerability, and possible environmental adaptations.
Stage 2: Building blocks of
interdisciplinary collaboration
• The planning grant (it all begins with $$)
• Graduate student involvement
• Key idea: climate (and climate change) and
vegetation are EJ issues in cities
• Publications
• Institutional contexts
External validation – Successful
Proposal
• National Science Foundation SES-0216281
Neighborhood Ecosystems: Human Climate Interactions in a Desert Metropolis
• Collaborators: Harlan, Brazel, Stefanov, Larsen – the importance of “cross-over” disciplines
• Building on previous individual projects
• Increasing interest among colleagues
IGERT in Urban Ecology – Student
Catalysts
Skills, Ideas, and Energy
Key Idea: Regional Relationships:
Income, Vegetation, and Temperature
Hypothesis: The distribution of urban vegetation is an
important intermediary between patterns of human
settlement and local temperature.
Urban
Vegetation Distribution
Regional
Temperature Distribution
Rapid Urbanization
Jenerette et al. (2007) Landscape Ecology 22: 353-365.
Neighborhood
Income Distribution
Path model showing vegetation as main driver of
neighborhood surface temperature in Phoenix
Every $10,000
increase in
neighborhood annual median income is
associated with a
0.28oC decrease in
surface temperature
on a Phoenix summer morning.
Predictors of vegetation and mean surface
temperature for 634 census tracts in Phoenix
Partial regression coefficient included on each arrow with p<0.05
External Validation – Publications in a
Variety of Fields
Institutional Change: Conceptual Framework
for CAP2 External drivers
Climate change
Globalization
Ecosystem function Primary production
Organism interactions & behavior Nutrient cycling & retention
Fluvial processes
Groundwater recharge
Ecosystem structure Built structure
Habitat structure & diversity Species abundance & diversity
Geomorphic structure
Food-web structure Human
behavior Institutional and
Individual levels Planning & design
Regulation
Migration
Ecosystem services Regulating: Air quality, pest control,
water quality, temperature control Supporting: soil fertility, nutrient cycling
Cultural: recreation, aesthetics
Human
outcomes Exposure risk
Quality of life Human health
Perception & value
Press or pulse events
Land-use change &
urbanization
Housing development
Landscape creation and management
Heat island dynamics
Atmospheric deposition
Hydrologic/geomorphic alteration
Natural events Flood
Drought
Socio-cultural-
economic template
Geophysical template
July 2007
Institutional Support for Interdisciplinary
Science
NSF Establishes Dynamics of Coupled Natural
and Human Systems as First Cross-Directorate
Permanent Program in 2008
(awards go back to 2001)
Promotes quantitative, interdisciplinary analyses of
relevant human and natural system processes and
complex interactions among human and natural systems
at diverse scales.
Stage 3: Successful CNH Proposal
Systems approach – meeting NSF’s expectations for
complex modeling and education
Adding the missing components – making room for
everyone
Arguing for a big problem but studying one city
Social science in a starring role
UVCC ~ Components Fine resolution land cover and land-use data over time
WRF simulations of local temperature in global change scenarios
Leaf-level energy balance and microclimate models
Spatially identified medical treatment (morbidity and mortality) data
Community participatory research on misery/coping
Data integration through GIS platform and with systems dynamic modeling for future scenarios
Education for the public and decision-makers about neighborhood landscape - microclimates
UVCC Research Team/Contributing
Authors to this Presentation:
Co-PIs: Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Darrel Jenerette,
Tim Lant, Chris Martin, William Stefanov
Senior Personnel: Bob Bolin, Anthony Brazel,
Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Monica Elser, Joellen Russell
Postdoctoral Associates: Karrin Alstad and
Darren Ruddell
Graduate Research Assistants: Juan Declet-Barreto
and Emmanuel Morales-Butler
