1
120°0'0"W 125°0'0"W 115°0'0"W 50°0'0"N 45°0'0"N 40°0'0"N 35°0'0"N The Plight of the Madrone: The effects of climate change on Arbutus Menziesii . This series of maps was created for EcoGeo Consulting in order to analyze potential future climate change impacts on forests in Western North America. Arbutus Menziesii, also known as Pacific Madrone, was the focus of this project, and a GIS-based model was created to quantify the projected shifts in its range using a climate change model for the late 21st century. Historic and future climate models as well as distribution records for Arbutus Menziesii were used in the creation of this model, and included with the map of the shift in its climatic model are a series of secondary maps illustrating the ways in which climate change may effect this species of tree. . The main factor defining the range of Pacific Madrone is the mildness of the winters and summers in the areas it currently lives. Climatic variables were chosen to emphasize these limiting factors on Pacific Madrone's range, and zonal statistics were used to identify the range within these variables the tree grows. The upper map to the near right shows a comparison of the GIS-derived climatic envelope created for this project in comparison to distribution records obtained from the United States Geological Service. . The variables chosen for this project were: Mean Annual Perciptation, Winter Perciptation, Summer Perciptation, Summer Temperature, and Winter Temperature. Zonal statistics were used to further understand where the tree grows in regards to these variables, and 1.5 standard deviations from the mean value in Pacific Madrone's range were used to define the climatic envelope relative to each of these variables. . One of the main effects of climate change is in seasonality. As the Pacific Madrone's range is paritcularly sensitive to shifts in seasonality it was chosen as an ideal metaphor of how other trees can be affected by climate change. The two maps above illustrate the change in average winter temperature, with the blue area representing the average winter temperatures Pacific Madrone will tolerate. These maps synergize well wih the map to the immediate left, which displays how climate change can affect seasonality on the continental level. The red and yellow areas represent the range of average summer temperatures in Pacific Madrone's native habitat, the yellow as they occur presently, and the red as they are projected to occur in 2080. The green and blue areas represent the average winter temperatures which occur in Pacific Madrone's climatic envelope, with the green representing the present and the blue representing the forecast. As the Northern areas become warmer the Southern areas become cooler, which translates to climatic turbulence, which can limit the areas in which sensitive trees like the Pacific Madrone can grow. . The map to the right of the example of seasonal shifting displays the forecasted range of areas potentially inhabited by Pacific Madrone by the year 2080. A significant amount of habitat loss is projected to occur in this scenario. Maps A and B displa y the range of average winter temperatures which characterize Pacific Madrone habitats, between 1.4 and 9 degrees celsius. Map C represents the current range of Pacific Madrone, with the GIS-derived climatic envelope in tan contrasted with the map of species distribution, outlined in white Map D displays the final results of the GIS analysis. The areas in red represent a loss in habitation; the areas in lighter green represent that the tree maintained its already existing habitat, and the areas in darker green represent new areas suitable for Pacific Madrone to grow. Map E shows the projected climatic envelop inhabited by Pacific Madrone in 2080. Interestingly, it seems to grow in a Northerly direction as the South becomes increasingly inhospitable. Map F displays the shifting seasonality predicted by climate models The symbology is explained to the left Map created by Theodore Ahlvin for EcoGeo Consulting, 12/8/2014 Data Sources: WWU 2014, WADOT 2003, USGS 2005, ESRI 2014, Stralberg et al 2014, USGS 1999 Projections: Custom Lambert Conformal Conic A B C D E F Area of Interest
