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The Political Economy of Ambiguity SACOTA AGM Centurion 11 October 2017 Theo Venter Political & Policy Specialist [email protected] @theo_venter
The Political Economy of Ambiguity
SACOTA AGMCenturion
11 October 2017
Theo Venter
Political & Policy Specialist
@theo_venter
Uitleg/ Outline
• A VUCA world
• What is the World saying?
• Which issues dominate?
• Burning issue in agriculture.
• ANC 54th National Conference (December)
• Expectations
The Prophet The Mafeking Road (1947)Herman Charles Bosman
On the future and predictionsNo, I never came across the Prophet van Rensburg, the man who
told General Kemp that it was the right time to rebel against the English. As you know, General Kemp followed his advice and they say that General Kemp still believed in Van Rensburg’s prophecies, even after the two of them were locked up in the Pretoria Gaol.
But I knew another prophet. His name was Erasmus. Stephanus Erasmus. Van Rensburg could only foretell that so and so was going to happen, and then he was wrong, sometimes. But with Stephanus Erasmus it was different. Erasmus used to make things come true just by prophesying them.
There are lots of people like Van Rensburg who can just foretell the future, but when a man comes along who can actually make the future, the you feel that you can’t make jokes about him.
A VUCA world
More than one Zuma around!
If Trump is your friend…..
Globale onsekerheid: “Rocket Man”
Perception and Reality in the Political World
Mechanistic view of the worldMechanistic view of the world
You must understanding the dynamics of change
You must be able to control the environment
You must have predictability
You must have stability
Current RealityWhere we are now
Current Future
View One: A clear, single view of the future
Current Reality
Evolving Future
Change is more complex than we think - only the
parameters of change is knowable.
We assume the system is in dynamic equilibrium.
We have very little control over the external
environment.
The process is cyclical
View Two: A limited set of possible future outcomes
Organismic view of the worldOrganismic view of the world
Paradigmatic view of the worldParadigmatic view of the worldCurrent reality
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Social systems are extremely complex systems. We experience periods of stability followed by
periods of chaos. Systems seems to be in dynamic
disequilibrium Multiple outcomes the norm
rather than the exception
View Three: A range of possible future outcomes
The current state of affairs
The Vicious and Virtuous Cycles
Vicious CycleCentrifugal forces dominate
(“Moving away from the centre”)
Virtuous CycleCentripetal forces dominate
(“Seeking the centre”)
The Vicious and Virtuous Cycles
Independent Judiciary
Stable financial system
Free media
Freedom to associate
Relative Goodinfrastructure
StablePolitical System
Good Banking system
Excellent Constitution
Good financial governance
Crime
Corruption
Restrictive labour regime
Weak economy
Education crisis
Policy uncertainty
High unemployment
Poverty
Government inefficiency
Ruling Party in disarry
Moody’s on 16 August 2017
1. Abrupt Cabinet reshuffle has further reduced business confidence.
2. Political tensions within the ANC are rising in the run up to leadership elections.
3. Growth is underperforming and unemployment rate the highest since the global financial crisis.
4. Revised Mining Charter draws dispute within the mining sector.
5. Long-awaited FICA bill approved.
6. SARB cuts rates as inflationary expectations fall and growth remains below potential.
7. Recent bailout of SAA points to ongoing financial challenges of state-owned enterprises.
Political Climate as a Constraint on Business
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
| 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 20 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
Political Climate since 1987 as measured in the Manufacturing Sector
Source: BER; Quantec; MFA DATABASE (Economic upswings shaded)
Dec
reas
e P
oliti
cal C
onst
rain
t In
crea
se
2 Feb 1990
FW de Klerk becomes president
Dakar visit
Boipatong and East Rand violence
CODESA in limbo
New constitution1993
1994 Election
NP withdrew from GNU
1999 Election
Mandela retire
2004 Election
2009 Election
2014 Election
2016Local
Election
Mandela Dec 2013
Nenegate 9/2015
Marikana2012
ANC MangaungZuma re-elected
ANC Polokwane 2007
Zuma elected
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Economy booms under Mbeki
Nkandla3/2016
Real GDP Growth and Political Constraint
Eighty-six per cent of manufacturers view the political climate as a constraint on business, reflecting public policy uncertainty and poor public finances.
Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks
Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks
Suid-Afrika val 14 plekke in WEF Mededingingsindeks
Policy Uncertainty Index 2017
State capture and other myths…
The Policy Conference…….
Source: IPSOS Press Release 1 Sep 2017
SensemakingMeasuring support in general.• ANC support at 47%• DA support at 21%• EFF support at 5%• Will not vote 7%• Refuse 10%• ANC below 50%• But, DA not gaining,• AND EFF declining?
1. Akkreditasie2. Grondwetlike wysigings3. Beleidsaanpassings4. Verkiesing
The 54th National ConferenceSensemaking
• Do away with NWC?• Two possible deputy presidents• Increase Top Six with two more DSG’s• Five full-time NEC members• Top Six will become Top 13?• Smaller NEC from 80 to 60• Better branch organisation• Better regional organisation• Own ANC internal Electoral Commission?• More efficient disciplinary structures.• Integrity Commission as well as a National Dispute
Resolution Committee.
@theo_venter 2017
Zuma’s 1st term as state president (2009-2014)
Zuma’s 2nd term as state president (2014-2019)
ANC as government: State dynamics
Zuma’s 2nd term as ANC president (2012-2017)
ANC as political party: Political dynamics
Dec 2012Mangaung
Elective Conference
May 2014General Election
Oct 2015 ANC National
General Council
2016 Local Government
Elections
2017ANC Policy Conference
Dec 2017 ANC
Elective Conference
May 2019General election
Dec 2012 May 2014 Dec 2017 May 2019Oct 2015 Aug 2016 Jun 2017
New ANC president for five year term 2017-
2022Zuma’s 2nd term as ANC president ends. Cyril Ramaphosachallenged for position by inter alia Nkosazana Dlamini-
Zuma, Baleka Mbete, Lindiwe Sisulu, Matthews Phosa, ZweliMkize & Jeff Radebe.
Zone of Uncertainty
Replacing Zuma: A two centres of power scenario?
If Ramaphosa or any other leader does not take over soon after Dec 2017 (Mbeki scenario), May 2019 seems
next opportunity.
SensemakingA Post-Zuma South Africa
A post-Zuma South Africa?
How will the Zuma term ends? What is the exit plan? Illness? A negotiated exit – Smart route? Pardon or amnesty – Legaly unlikely? Political pressure - Recall? Politically unlikely – only after December
2017? A normal process? – May 2019? The images of Zuma in the media and of Zuma in the ANC are worlds
apart. Zuma has a strong grip on the ANC with strong support in KZN, North
West, Free State and with pockets of support in Mpumalanga, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape. KZN court case a game changer.
Zuma has developed a very strong informal system of support within the civil service and state agencies, not always reflected in top appointments.
Virtually no trace of Zuma in the big events like Gupta Waterkloof landing.
Political paradox – who is sinking?
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Expectations for 2017
1. With the ANC electoral process in full swing the political noise will intensify and contradictions will increase….
2. Zuma is a dangerous lame duck since Nenegate, but what is his “use by” date? (Is Dec 2017 the beginning of the end?)
3. Continued low growth with another sovereign risk downgrade during 2017?
4. New trade union federation (SAFTO) established in May 2017. Competition for COSATU?
5. “Lawfare” (rule of Law) the name of the game?6. Massive civil reaction across racial and political divide vis-a-vis the
Zuma presidency. Is this our “Velvet Revolution”?7. Continued policy uncertainty and decision paralysis.
How do I respond to a VUCA environment
How to manage a VUCA environment?
1. Innovate and shape the future.2. Execution speed and agility.3. Stay clear of ideologies and dogma – search for
flexible and pragmatic solutions.4. Define your Anchors - North Star or Southern Cross.5. Search for Simplicity - to counter complexity.6. Encourage collaboration - nobody can do it alone.7. Keep on Learning. Do your research. Read. 8. Invest in Resilience – ability to bounce back.
