The post-2015 agenda: Analysis of current proposals in ... · into action for the Post-2015 Agenda,...

The post-2015 agenda:

Analysis of current proposals in specific areas

Background briefing prepared for an Overseas Development Institute & UN Foundation event, 25-26 June 2013, New York

Gina Bergh and Jonathan Couturier

The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) has been collecting proposals for goals and targets in a post-2015 agreement into a single database, the Future Goals Tracker. This briefing is based on that database, and summarises the main areas of consensus and difference between the proposals in a range of specific areas. It was prepared by way of background to discussion at a recent ODI / UN Foundation event, Turning Evidence into action for the Post-2015 Agenda, and therefore covers the thematic areas that featured at the event.

Total proposals analysed across selected thematic areas1:

1 This analysis is based on those proposals included in the Future Goals Tracker by 21 June 2013. While we seek to keep

the data updated regularly, it will inevitably have some gaps - please contact Gina Bergh to submit any additions, corrections, or for more information about this initiative. The full database of proposals can be accessed online here.

mailto:[email protected]

http://tracker.post2015.org/

26

149 Education

Others

EDUCATION

Issues for discussion:

No. of proposals in Future Goals Tracker: Country of origin by Human Development Index (HDI)2:

Key issues emerging across proposals:

The majority of proposals in education are from very high HDI countries, and close to half originate as global collaborations across more than two countries.

Out of a total of 26 proposals almost half (12) are concerned with quality, and the need to address this perceived gap in the MDGs.

Many proposals focus on: expanding education to lower-secondary level (8); the gender dimension (7); and expanding education objectives to post-secondary (6).

There is a relatively strong focus on life-long learning, which features in 5 proposals, but this is also a central issue of debate - others argue for a focus on basic literacy and numeracy.

Few proposals address vocational education, and those that do are proposals focused mainly on improving employment and wider economic outcomes. This reflects that, although important, education to employment linkages are not within the top priorities in most proposals for this sector.

Very few proposals explicitly address educational inequalities through calls for disaggregated monitoring by ethnicity, location etc., despite the emphasis on this in debates and other thematic areas.

Only 2 proposals refer to pre-primary education

There is almost no discussion on financing in proposals on education

2 HDI ranking broken down into Very High, High, Medium and Low HDI. ‘Global’ refers to collaborative proposals by 2 or more

countries. Some proposals are tagged to an HDI category plus Global.

The focus in the post-2015 conversations on education has been on shifting from access to greater equity, from primary education to learning across a continuum, and toward a new framework which emphasises quality learning and skills. However, with the current education goals still falling short, there is a tension between greater ambition while also keeping a focus on the existing agenda. How can both be accommodated within the proposed post-2015 agenda, and what do we know about how to drive progress in education, to inform goal setting post-2015?

11

15

1 0 1

Global VHDI HHDI MHDI LHDI

Number ofProposals

Framing in the High Level Panel report3:

3. Provide Quality Education and Lifelong Learning

3a. Increase by x% the proportion of children able to access and complete pre-primary education

3b. Ensure every child, regardless of circumstance, completes primary education able to read, write and count well enough to meet minimum learning standards

3c. Ensure every child, regardless of circumstance, has access to lower secondary education and increase the proportion of adolescents who achieve recognised and measurable learning outcomes to x%

3d. Increase the number of young and adult women and men with the skills, including technical and vocational, needed for work by x%

3 Source: High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda (2013) A New Global Partnership: Eradicate Poverty and Transform

Economies through Sustainable Development. New York: United Nations

HEALTH AND NUTRITION




Out of the total of 35 proposals addressing health and nutrition, a large proportion originate as global collaborations or from very high HDI countries, and a much lower but significant number from middle HDI countries.

The main areas of consensus across many of the proposals on health are universal health coverage (15) and sexual and reproductive health (10).

The proposals have a strong gender dimension with an emphasis across several proposals on non-discrimination, sexual and reproductive health and fertility choices, and birth control.

Other areas that repeat frequently across proposals are specifically universal maternal and child health coverage (6); tackling inequalities in health (5), addressing nutrition deficits (6), and calling for universal primary health care (4).

Proposals in health tend to be diverse with an emphasis across a wide range of priorities that link to the organisational positioning of those putting forward proposals.

Some proposals in this sector discuss subjective well-being, however this tends not to be clearly defined.

Health targets will be affected by actions beyond the health sector, and 6 of these proposals suggest a link between health and nutrition in new targets.

Other issues coming out strongly in the on-going debates on new health goals are the need to build on the

successes of the MDGs with more ambitious targets, and the need to tackle non-communicable diseases.

4 Very High, High, Medium and Low HDI. ‘Global’ refers to collaborative proposals by 2 or more countries.

There is an expectation that the three health goals in the current MDGs will be reduced to one or two in a post-2015 framework. How can this happen without losing momentum on the considerable progress to date? How can a post-2015 agreement be instrumental in driving improvements in health systems and be flexible to new health problems as they emerge in different contexts?

17 16

1

3

0


No ofProposals

35

140

Health &nutrition

Others

Framing in the High Level Panel report:

4. Ensure Healthy Lives

4a. End preventable infant and under-5 deaths

4b. Increase by x% the proportion of children, adolescents, at-risk adults and older people that are fully vaccinated

4c. Decrease the maternal mortality ratio to no more than x per 100,000

4d. Ensure universal sexual and reproductive health and rights

4e. Reduce the burden of disease from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, neglected tropical diseases and priority non-communicable diseases

5. Ensure Food Security and Good Nutrition

5a. End hunger and protect the right of everyone to have access to sufficient, safe, affordable, and nutritious food

5b. Reduce stunting by x%, wasting by y%, and anemia by z% for all children under five

5c. Increase agricultural productivity by x%, with a focus on sustainably increasing smallholder yields and access to irrigation

5d. Adopt sustainable agricultural, ocean and freshwater fishery practices and rebuild designated fish stocks to sustainable levels

5e. Reduce postharvest loss and food waste by x%

WATER AND ENERGY




The majority or proposals in water and energy originate in very high HDI countries and as global collaborations, with a handful also from low and medium HDI countries.

Of the 44 proposals in these areas, close to half (18 proposals) cover both water and energy within the same proposal.

Most proposals that address water and energy concerns together do so in the context of wider proposals on sustainable resource use and development.

Within proposals on water, the focus is mainly on expanding access to clean safe water supplies (27), sanitation and hygiene (WASH) objectives (13) and sustainable water resource management (14).

There is a new emphasis in many proposals on water systems as a whole, including a range of aspects of water management and usage.

In addition to the MDG focus on basic sanitation and drinking water, post-2015 proposals place new emphasis on access, addressing infrastructure as a core aspect, as well as the implications of inequality.

Proposals in energy also have s strong emphasis on access (13 proposals), and sustainable energy solutions (13). The latter are inked to climate change, transitions to green economy and ‘clean’ energies.

As in water, issues of access are discussed in relation to infrastructure.


Providing improved access to infrastructure is a core part of both achieving the current MDGs and putting in place a more ambitious agenda for the post-2015 period. Doing so, in a way compatible with environmental sustainability, is challenging financially, politically and technologically. This session will consider how a post-2015 agenda can help to drive both national and international agendas to make universal water and energy access a reality.

17

25

4 3 1


No ofproposals

44

131

Water &EnergyOthers

Very few proposals (2) in water explicitly address issues around the governance and management of shared water resources, and among proposals in energy only 1 proposal discusses options on energy security.


6. Achieve Universal Access to Water and Sanitation

6a. Provide universal access to safe drinking water at home, and in schools, health centres, and refugee camps

6b. End open defecation and ensure universal access to sanitation at school and work, and increase access to sanitation at home by x%

6c. Bring freshwater withdrawals in line with supply and increase water efficiency in agriculture by x%, industry by y% and urban areas by z%

6d. Recycle or treat all municipal and industrial wastewater prior to discharge

7. Secure Sustainable Energy

7a. Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

7b. Ensure universal access to modern energy services

7c. Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency in buildings, industry, agriculture and transport

7d. Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION




Over two thirds of proposals on food and agriculture originate in high or very high HDI countries, and over a third are global collaborations. A much smaller but significant proportion come from organisations based in low and medium HDI countries.

Out of a total of 30 proposals, the most frequently addressed issues are food security (19 proposals), sustainable agriculture (7), and hunger, health and nutrition (7).

Only 23% of the total proposals in this area combine social and environmental issues, and close to half (14) cover sustainable agriculture.

The sustainability dimension of food and agriculture proposals is a much stronger focus than it was in the MDGs.

The emphasis has therefore largely shifted from one on nutrition and hunger as a dimension of health, to that of sustainable food production and security.

Only one proposal discussed food and agriculture in the context of inequalities, and proposals in this area do not specify disaggregated measures for possible targets.


While hunger featured as a target in the current MDGs, there is a sense that issues of food and nutrition will need greater prominence in an agenda focused on sustainable development. This session will consider how both eliminating hunger and promoting sustainable food production can be part of new global goals after 2015.

12

18

3 4

1


No ofProposals

30

145 Food

Others


5. Ensure Food Security and Good Nutrition

5a. End hunger and protect the right of everyone to have access to sufficient, safe, affordable, and nutritious food

5b. Reduce stunting by x%, wasting by y%, and anemia by z% for all children under five

5c. Increase agricultural productivity by x%, with a focus on sustainably increasing smallholder yields and access to irrigation

5d. Adopt sustainable agricultural, ocean and freshwater fishery practices and rebuild designated fish stocks to sustainable levels

5e. Reduce postharvest loss and food waste by x%

DELIVERING POVERTY ERADICATION: ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL

PROTECTION




About two thirds of proposals covering economy, employment and social protection are from organisations based in very high HDI countries, and about a third originate as global collaborations across more than two countries.

Of the total 28 proposals addressing these thematic areas, the majority: frame poverty eradication in terms of incomes (16 proposals); incorporate social protection as a core factor (18); and discuss employment objectives (16).

Increasing incomes is still frequently discussed as a core tool to alleviate poverty, and many continue to refer to income poverty at the $1.25 /day line. However, the focus on incomes in most proposals is now complemented by a recognition of wider aspects of wellbeing, expressed as multidimensional approaches to poverty.

The fact that many proposals for inclusive growth and employment incorporate social protection reflects that this is seen as a core complementary strategy to achieving wider employment and socio-economic objectives.

Proposals on employment are coalescing around the ‘decent’ or ‘good’ work agenda, reflecting strong attention to the quality of employment even though the quantity of jobs is a major policy concern across contexts.

Decent work and social protection are often framed together as complementary aims. The decent work agenda encompasses the protection of labour rights, and expanding productive, fulfilling employment.


There is a great deal of optimism about the possibility of eradicating income poverty, at the $1.25 a day level, by 2030. If this optimism is to be realised, economic growth, employment creation and social protection schemes will need to be brought into play, in different combinations, to actually deliver on the promise of poverty eradication. This session will consider how a post-2015 agreement can help to shape the national policies and global coalitions to make this happen.

10

17

1 2

0


No ofProposals

28

147

Economic,employment &social protection

Others

A theme of emerging importance is for employment-related future goals to recognise the informal sector.

While several proposals refer to ‘inclusive growth’ and the macro economy (10), few make suggestions specifically on the inequality dimension.

Almost all proposals in this area have dropped discussion of growth as the primary route to alleviating poverty, and those that do tend to focus on levers for inclusion rather than growth alone.


1. End Poverty

1a. Bring the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day to zero and reduce by x% the share of people living below their country’s 2015 national poverty line

1b. Increase by x% the share of women and men, communities, and businesses with secure rights to land, property, and other assets

1c. Cover x% of people who are poor and vulnerable with social protection systems

1d. Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters by x%

8. Create Jobs, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Equitable Growth

8a. Increase the number of good and decent jobs and livelihoods by x

8b. Decrease the number of young people not in education, employment or training by x%

8c. Strengthen productive capacity by providing universal access to financial services and infrastructure such as transportation and ICT

8d. Increase new start-ups by x and value added from new products by y through creating an enabling business environment and boosting entrepreneurship

SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE: BUILDING A POST-2015 AGENDA THAT LASTS




Almost half of proposals on strengthening social and environmental resilience originate in very high HDI countries, and almost as many are global collaborations. A small number come from organisations in medium and low HDI countries.

Out of 29 proposals in this area, 13 focus on disaster risk reduction (DRR), and within these the main focus is on resilience to disasters (11) and on climate change (6).

Many suggestions for targets and indicators in this area are around limiting casualties.

Those proposals addressing resilience to climate change discuss options for adaptation and mitigation, but tend not to explicitly link this to social impacts (such as migration or loss of livelihoods).

Only 5 of the proposals in this area address both the environmental and social implications, for example, the issue of loss of livelihoods is rarely considered in proposals on DRR.

Within the total of 29 proposals in this area, 16 cover social protection. These tend to centre on access to services (9), income support (8), and measures on under/unemployment (8).

Within these, proposals seek to secure minimum income support, decent work rights and other safety nets, as well as access to basic services for the poorest, particularly health and education.

Very few (2) proposals in social protection address both social and environmental resilience together, so as with DRR these areas remain relatively de-linked.

Several proposals in social protection discuss inequality as an important dimension of the risks to secure livelihoods and services.


There is a consensus that the post-2015 agenda should seek to eradicate extreme poverty. Doing so is not just a matter of raising incomes and people’s access to services, but of reducing the risks that threaten to push people below the poverty line. This session will consider how a post-2015 agenda can encourage countries to deliver poverty eradication that is resilient to social and environmental shocks.

12

14

1 2

1


No ofProposals

29

146

Disaster riskreduction &Social protection

Others


1. End Poverty

1a. Bring the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day to zero and reduce by x% the share of people living below their country’s 2015 national poverty line

1b. Increase by x% the share of women and men, communities, and businesses with secure rights to land, property, and other assets

1c. Cover x% of people who are poor and vulnerable with social protection systems

1d. Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters by x%

GLOBAL REFORMS FOR DELIVERING A POST-2015 AGENDA

Questions for discussion:



Almost half of proposals addressing aspects of global governance are from very high HDI countries, with an equal number originating as global collaborations across more than two countries. While still in a small minority, those by middle HDI countries are higher for this theme than for most others.

Within the total of 20 proposals in this area, almost half call for a new partnership for development (including new financing mechanisms, institutions and further debt-cancellations) (9 proposals); and several seek reforms in the global trading system (6) and financial sector reform (7).

There is also a strong focus on trade agreements, with many of the proposals in this area outlining aims for free and fair trade, as well as reforms to the global intellectual property rights regime.

Proposals for global reform also reflect global discussions around reforms in taxation (6). These address tax in the context of a range of issues, including cooperation on global corporations and tax loopholes, and financial transactions tax as a potential financing mechanism for development.

While proposals for global reforms have clear implications for private sector, few address this sector in a specific way or directly.

Only 2 proposals cover migration, in spite of the very significant potential of remittances as a source of development finance, and the positive links between migration and development.

Only one proposal, from the Latin America region, makes the link between global sustainability and global economic governance. This may reflect that discussions on bridging human development and sustainability objectives are either difficult in this area, or not yet integrated in global governance debates.


Making a new, more ambitious, post-2015 agenda happen will require a new set of partnerships at the global level to drive progress. How can a post-2015 agreement be useful in making progress on what are some of the most difficult issues in global governance?

9 9

1

2

0


No ofProposals

20

155

Global economicgovernance

Others

Although proposals reflect widespread acknowledgement of the weakness of MDG 8 on global partnership, most do not specify what an effective global partnership would look like in practice.


12. Create a Global Enabling Environment and Catalyse Long-Term Finance

12a. Support an open, fair and development-friendly trading system, substantially reducing trade-distorting measures, including agricultural subsidies, while improving market access of developing country products

12b. Implement reforms to ensure stability of the global financial system and encourage stable, long-term private foreign investment

12c. Hold the increase in global average temperature below 2⁰ C above pre-industrial levels, in line with international agreements

12d. Developed countries that have not done so to make concrete efforts towards the target of 0.7% of gross national product (GNP) as official development assistance to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20% of GNP of developed countries to least developed countries; other countries should move toward voluntary targets for complementary financial assistance12e Reduce illicit flows and tax evasion and increase stolen-asset recovery by $x

12f. Promote collaboration on and access to science, technology, innovation, and development data

Cross-cutting Issues

INTEGRATING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT


Key issues emerging in recent reports and proposals:

Considerable progress has been made in human development during the MDGs, with major declines in poverty and improvements in health and education at the global level. However there is increasing recognition that human development and prosperity, particularly in richer countries, has come at great cost to the environment.

Discussions on future goals acknowledge that a model of human progress which damages the earth’s natural systems can no longer be sustained. Human welfare and the environment are interdependent, and continued environmental degradation will cause long term economic and social harm, with the world’s poor in the most vulnerable position.

The present challenge is therefore to reconcile human progress with environmental sustainability and planetary boundaries, and there is growing consensus that it is possible to strive for all three pillars of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental.

There are new ideas to achieve this through the transformation of our economic systems, with a focus on reducing poverty and inequality, improving resource efficiency and changing production and consumption patterns.

Yet the transformations necessary to make progress on both poverty and the environment pose a challenge to current economic thinking and practice. This agenda demands greatly increased policy coherence, and facing up a reality of trade-offs.

Many commentators emphasise the vast potential of synergies across human development and environment objectives. A range of ideas are emerging, for example:

o Creating incentives for private sector and markets by factoring environmental impact into pricing and trade regimes

o New global institutions capable of regulating global commons

o Measures to calculate socio-economic and environmental costs more widely than GDP, including such factors as ecological footprint and HDI

o Synergies between different goal areas, e.g. an energy goal could address both universal access and sustainable production

The core of the shift from MDGs to a post-2015 agenda is a shift to a better integration of human development and environmental sustainability within one set of goals and targets. There are different ideas for how this could happen, through different combinations of goals and targets, and a variety of institutional arrangements for implementation and monitoring. What are the different ideas on the table and what do they offer in terms of overcoming the difficulties of combining the two agendas in a workable way?


“We recommend to the Secretary-General that deliberations on a new development agenda must be guided by the vision of eradicating extreme poverty once and for all, in the context of sustainable development.

We came to the conclusion that the moment is right to merge the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainability guiding international development. Why now? Because 2015 is the target date set in the year 2000 for the achievement of the MDGs and the logical date to begin a second phase that will finish the job they started and build on their achievements. Member states of the General Assembly of the United Nations have also agreed at Rio+20 to develop a set of sustainable development goals that are coherent with and integrated into the development agenda beyond 2015. 2015 also marks the deadline for countries to negotiate a new treaty to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing a single, sustainable development agenda is critical. Without ending poverty, we cannot build prosperity; too many people get left behind. Without building prosperity, we cannot tackle environmental challenges; we need to mobilise massive investments in new technologies to reduce the footprint of unsustainable production and consumption patterns. Without environmental sustainability, we cannot end poverty; the poor are too deeply affected by natural disasters and too dependent on deteriorating oceans, forests and soils.”

FINANCING A POST-2015 AGENDA


Key issues emerging from current proposals

Any post-2015 agreement will require new and effective financing mechanisms in order to operationalise new goals. This will mean moving beyond the development finance model in place during the MDGs, which comprised mainly Official Development Assistance (ODA), domestic resources and debt cancellations.

While traditional aid has made an important contribution to development progress to date, the main driver has been domestic growth trajectories in the emerging economies.

The relative importance of ODA is declining following the impact of financial crisis among OECD Development Assistance Committee countries: MDG era commitments to reach ODA targets of 0.7% GNI remain unfulfilled across almost all countries, with some countries rapidly reducing previous ODA commitments in recent years.

The development landscape has changed, and now involves new actors and new possibilities for financing. These include middle-income countries and non-DAC donors engaging in innovative financing relationships through South-South and triangular cooperation. However, the rise of new actors poses the risk of leading to an uncoordinated financing landscape. There are calls for new monitoring and reporting tools to be developed, adapted to new realities.

At the national level, domestic resources mobilised through taxation have increased markedly in many countries during the MDG period. Foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries has risen from $158 billion in 2001 to $506 billion today; remittances since 2001 have tripled to $319.6 billion; philanthropic donations have jumped from $12 billion in 2003 to $53 billion today.

There is growing consensus that domestic resource mobilisation should be central to financing any future development agenda, while recognising that low-income countries will still require medium-term ODA as they build revenue-collection capacities.

There is also broad agreement that more should be done to tackle illicit financial flows, 60% of which stem from commercial activities (such as tax avoidance), to recuperate lost revenues.

There is growing interest in financial system reform that is geared towards long rather than short-term gain, and in mobilising and leveraging private resources, such as FDI, for the provision of public goods. Governments would have a role here in establishing incentives to catalyse such investments.

In spite of the promise this range of options holds, there are areas of contention in this debate:

o Can and should private remittances be used for public investments, particularly given the existing financial burdens on receiving households?

o FDI should be viewed with caution, as it has often encouraged races to the bottom (such as tax-exemptions), and tends to be concentrated in middle-income countries.

Public spending and global flows of public money will be a core part of the implementation of any post-2015 agreement. How can an agreement drive positive changes in this area, and what difference will the integration of human development and environmental sustainability objectives make?

o How should the burden of financing global public goods be shared? Should there be specific levels of economic development that mark graduation from ODA? Should global funds or regional financial markets be established?


12. Create a Global Enabling Environment and Catalyse Long-Term Finance

12a. Support an open, fair and development-friendly trading system, substantially reducing trade-distorting measures, including agricultural subsidies, while improving market access of developing country products

12b. Implement reforms to ensure stability of the global financial system and encourage stable, long-term private foreign investment […]

12d. Developed countries that have not done so to make concrete efforts towards the target of 0.7% of gross national product (GNP) as official development assistance to developing countries and 0.15 to 0.20% of GNP of developed countries to least developed countries; other countries should move toward voluntary targets for complementary financial assistance

12e Reduce illicit flows and tax evasion and increase stolen-asset recovery by $x

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