The potential of backcasting to create a long-term vision ... · The potential of backcasting to...

Backcasting in transport planningThe potential of backcasting to create a long-term vision

and improve coordination across public transport companies in the Greater Copenhagen Area

Joe Jensen and Marie Vang NielsenSupervisor: Andrés Felipe Valderrama Pineda

Sustainable CitiesMaster’s Thesis

9th of June 2017

Backcasting in transport planningJoe Jensen and Marie Vang NielsenSupervisor: Andrés Felipe Valderrama PinedaSustainable Cities, Master’s ThesisAalborg University, Copenhagen9th of June 2017

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Abstract Urbanisation,increasingtransportdemands,andcar-dependentmobilitypatternsconstituteseverechallengesforcitiesthataimtoensuresustainabletransportsystemsandliveableurbanenvironmentsinthefuture.Additionally,manycitiesexperiencealackofintegrationnotonlybetweendifferenttransportmodes,butalsobetweenthekeyactorswhoareresponsibleforstrategicplanningandcoordination.Keyactorswithintransportplanningshouldcollectivelydiscussandaddresshowtodevelopsustainabletransportfutures. ThroughacasestudyofcoordinationbetweenpublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreatheaimofthisthesisistoinvestigatetheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisioninordertocontributetoimprovingcoordination.Todoso,wehaveconstructedanexampleofabackcastingscenariocontaininganormativevisionandthemeasurestoreachthatvision.ThroughtheperspectivesofActor-NetworkTheorywehavefocusedontheneededactorconfigurationsandpotentialcontroversiesrelatedtoeachmeasurewhenpresentingthescenariotokeyactors.Thiswaybackcastingworkedasaninteressementdevicebyencouragingdiscussionswithkeyactorsontheiridentitiesandrolesindevelopinglong-termvisionsandimprovingcoordination. Basedonthesediscussions,wesuggestthatincludingkeyactorsasactiveparticipantsinaparticipatorybackcastingstudycancontributetoimprovingcoordinationacrossactorswithintransportplanningincities.Additionally,wesuggestthatidentifyinganddescribingactorconfigurationsisausefulapproachtospecificallyaddressaspectsofcoordinationwhenundertakingabackcastingstudy.

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Acknowledgements Firstofall,wewouldliketothanksupervisorAndresFelipeValderramaPineda,whohasprovidedfeedback,academicinsightsandprofessionaldiscussionsonthisMaster’sThesis.Thankfulthoughtsarealsosendtotheeightinterviewees,whoallocatedtimeandprovidednewperspectivesandin-depthqualitativeknowledgeonthespecificcase.Withoutbeingabletoconductinterviews,thisthesiscouldnothavebeenproduced.Finally,wewouldliketothankAndersVangNielsenforproofreadingthethesis.

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Table of contents ABSTRACT 3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4

INTRODUCTION 6

PROBLEM ANALYSIS 7

PROBLEM FORMULATION 18

METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK 19Case study 20Document analysis and literature review 21Semi-structured interviews 21Data analysis 25Participation in external conferences 26Scenario building 27

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 30Justification for using ANT 30Key elements of ANT 30Applying theory to the case 32

ANALYSIS ON CURRENT CHALLENGES OF COORDINATION 34The formation of DOT 34Main achievements of DOT 37Criticism since the formation of DOT 38Challenges stem from fundamental differences between the public transport companies 40Optimisation within single systems 42Lack of incentives for long-term holistic planning 43Different ambitions for DOT 44Limited coordination of long-term investments 45Summary 46

ANALYSIS ON BACKCASTING 47Background for backcasting scenario 47Overall vision of the backcasting scenario 48Themes as part of the vision 50Measures to realise theme A. Mobility as a Service 50 Expansion of Rejseplanen 52 Expansion of DOT 53 Mobility team in DOT develops long-term vision 56 Coordinated investment plan for DOT 58 Improve stations for park and ride 60 Integration of new transport modes into the public transport system 61 Test of driverless technologies 65Summary 67

CONCLUSION 69

REFLECTIONS 71

REFERENCES 73

APPENDICES See separate attachment

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Introduction Thetransportsectorisoneofthebiggestcontributorstoglobalwarmingacrosstheworld(UrryandDennis,2009).Eventhoughthefocusonsustainabledevelopmentisconstantlyincreasingbothpolitically,inscientificresearch,andamongthegeneralpublic,thetransportsectorhasnotseenthesamedeclineinemissionsasothersectors.AtaEuropeanlevel,emissionsonlystartedtodeclineaslateasin2007andstillremainhigherthanin1990(EuropeanCommission,2017). Incitiesincreasingpopulationsanddensitiesputsubstantialpressureonmobilitysystemswithaprojected66%ofpeoplelivingincitiesby2050(UnitedNations,2014).Consequently,increasingtransportdemandsinurbansettingsaswellasthelock-intocardependency(Driscoll,2014)resultinlocalairandnoisepollution,greenhousegasemissions,increasingroadcongestionandurbansprawl.Ineffect,citiesinparticularfaceseverechallengesintermsofdevelopingsustainabletransportsystemsinandforthefuture.Thisrequiresstrongerintegrationbothbetweentransportmodesandbetweenkeyactorsinvolvedinstrategictransportplanning(Mayetal.,2006).Therefore,thereisaneedforkeyactorstocollectivelyaddressthefutureroleoftransportsystemsincities. InDenmarkthereisalsoalackofactionamongkeyactorstoreduceemissions,despitetheambitiousnationalgoaltobecomefreeoffossilfuelsby2050(Klima-ogEnergiministeriet,2011).Herethetransportsectorisheavilydominatedbyfossilfuels,whichcurrentlycover95%ofthetotalenergydemandforroad,railandairtransportandwillonlydropto92%in2030basedoncurrentextrapolations(Energistyrelsen,2017).Additionally,trafficvolumesonDanishroadsincreasedby2.8%in2016,alongwithrecordhighsaleofprivatecars,resultinginincreasingCO2emissionsforthethirdyearinarow(Bredsdorff,2017). TheGreaterCopenhagenAreaservesasoneexampleofanurbancontextwherealackofkeyactorscollectivelyaddressingsustainabletransportfuturescanbeidentified.Theareafacesmanyfuturechallenges,sincerapidlygrowingpopulationsandincreasingtransportdemandsputsubstantialpressureonurbanmobilitysystemsresultinginnegativeenvironmental,economicandsocialeffects,suchasgreenhousegasemissions,noiseandairpollution,congestion,andunattractiveurbanenvironments(Trængselskommissionen,2013a). Sincetechnologicaldevelopmentalonewillnotsolvetheseissues(Banister,2008),thereisaneedforatransitiontomoresustainablemodesoftransportinurbanareas.Oneimportantelementofthistransitionisthepotentialtostrengthen,expand,andincreaseintegrationofpublictransportsystemsinurbanagglomerationsinordertoreduceautomobiledependence(NewmanandKenworthy,2006).Ascitiesgrowinscaleandindensity,publictransportoffersasustainableandefficientalternativetoprivatecars(NewmanandKenworthy,1999). ToimprovepublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,thereisaneedforkeyactorstocollectivelyaddressthefutureroleofpublictransport.However,thisischallengedbythecurrentconfigurationofactorsinwhichresponsibilityisdividedbetweenthreepublictransportcompanieslackingacommonlong-termvisionatastrategiclevel(Jespersenet.al,2017).Thisimpliesthatstrategictransportplanningtasksandinvestmentsarenotnecessarilycoordinatedacrosstransportmodesandconsequentlyacrosspublictransportcompanies(ibid.).Toachievethiscoordinationonlong-termgoalsandvisions,actorsmuststartworkingcollectivelytowardsadesirableandsustainablefuture(BanisterandHickman,2013). Onewaytocreatesuchlong-termnormativevisionsandtoprovidethemeasurestoachievethosevisionsisthroughabackcastingapproach.Tobackcastistoworkbackwardsfromadesirablefutureinordertodeterminewhatpolicymeasuresarerequiredtoreachthatpoint(Robinson,1990).Morespecifically,participatorybackcastingcanworkasanapproachtoactivelyinvolveactorsincollectivelydevelopingshareddirectionsforthefuture(Wangel,2011a). Theaimofthisthesisisthereforetoinvestigatetheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrosspublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreainordertocontributetoimprovingcoordination.Aspartofthis,theaimistoinitiatediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransportamongkeyactorsinthefieldbyshowinganexampleofabackcastingscenariothroughwhichtheseactorscancollectivelyaddresssustainabletransportfutures.

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Problem analysis Current challenges of the transport sector in Denmark Denmarkhasbysomebeencharacterisedasapioneercountryofsustainabletransitionduetowindpowerproduction(Auken,2002)andtheambitiousnationalgoaltobecomefreeoffossilfuelsby2050(Klima-ogEnergiministeriet,2011),amongothers.However,thetransportsectorinDenmarkhasnotseenthesamedeclineinemissionsasothersectorsandisstillheavilydominatedbyfossilfuels,atrendthatbasedoncurrentextrapolationswillnotchangesubstantiallytowards2030(Energistyrelsen,2017).AsvisualisedinFigure1,thetransportsectorconstitutesaboutonethirdofthetotalenergyuseinDenmarkwithroadtransportaccountingfor75%andaviationfor19%(ibid.).Intermsofroadtransport,privatecarsmakeup63%oftotalenergyusethusprivateroadtransportisthebiggestsinglecontributortoenergyuseinthetransportsector(ibid.).

Figure1.TransportenergyconsumptionatanationallevelinDenmarkin2016(BasedonEnergistyrelsen,2017).

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Atanationalpoliticallevel,themainfocusiscurrentlyonexpandingroadcapacitytoovercomecongestion(Lorentzen,2017)explicitlyformulatedbytheSpokesmanofTransportinthepoliticalpartyVenstre:

“Venstrehasacleargeneralpriority,thatfromnowonprimarilyroadsarenext.” (Lorentzen,2016)

Itis,however,broadlyrecognisedthatincreasesinroadcapacitywillonlyleadtoinducedtrafficandsubsequentlycongestion(Ladd,2012).Withnothingonthepoliticalhorizonaimedatchangingthesenegativefigures,alackofactioncanbeidentifiedatanationalpoliticalleveltoaddresstheissuesinordertofacilitateasustainabletransitionofthetransportsectoratanationallevel. InmetropolitanregionsliketheGreaterCopenhagenAreachallengesbecomeevenmoresevereduetothestrongconcentrationofprivateroadtransportresultinginlocalnoiseandairpollution,congestionandunattractiveurbanenvironments.ExtrapolationsoftheGreaterCopenhagenArearevealasomewhatequallynegativepictureasvisualisedinFigure2.Basedon2012extrapolations,thetraveldemandforprivatecarswillincreaseby10%in2025andby21%in2040whereascarownershipwillincreasebyabout9%in2025(Tetraplan,2013;Trængselskommissionen,2013a).Thesubstantialincreaseincarownershipandtraveldemandwillputpressureonthetransportsystem,andcongestionisthereforeexpectedtoincreaseby96%fromatotalof9.3millionhoursofdelayin2012to18.4millionhoursin2025(Trængselskommissionen,2013a).Thisincreasewillhavesevereenvironmentalaswellassocio-economiceffects–somethingwhichwasthoroughlystudiedanddiscussedbytheCongestionCommissionin2012/2013,whosesuggestedinitiativeslikeroadpricing,improvedcoordinationacrosstransportmodes,designationofpublictransporthubsetc.were,however,neverimplementedatalargescale(Petersen,2017).Furthermore,demographicchangeswillinfluencethetransportsystemastheoverallpopulationwillincreaseby7%intheGreaterCopenhagenAreatowards2025–butthepopulationgrowthwillnotbedistributedevenly(Trængselskommissionen,2013a).Urbanisationwillthusfavourthecentralurbanareaswherepopulationwillincreaseby16%(ibid.)puttingalargepressureontransportsystemsintheseareas.TheseprojectionshighlighttheneedforincreasedimplementationoftrendbreakingpoliciesandinitiativestosupportasustainablefuturetransportsystemintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.

Figure2.2012extrapolationsoftraveldemand,carownership,congestionandpopulationintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.(BasedonTetraplan,2013andTrængelskommissionen,2013a)

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A sustainable transport system requires more than technological development Oneconsiderablechallengefordevelopingasustainabletransportsystemistheneedtoaddressnotjusttechnologicaldevelopmentsinceitiswellacknowledgedthatthisalonecannotsolvetheseverechallenges(Banister,2008;Teknologirådet,2012).Eventhoughmanydiscussionsontransportfuturesarecurrentlycentredaroundnewtechnologieslikedriverlesscars,itisarguedthatdriverlesscarscannotreplacepublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane,2017).Banister(2008)identifiedhowasustainablemobilityparadigmrequiresseveralchangestocurrentsystemsandtransportplanningpractices(ofwhichtechnologicalinnovationisonlyonepart):reducingtheneedtotravel,fosteringmodalshiftsfromprivatetopublictransport,reducingtripdistancebyintegratingtransportplanningwithlanddevelopment,andincreasingenergyefficiencyofvehicles. Publictransportholdspotentialtoincreasebothsocial,economicandenvironmentalsustainabilityinurbanareas(Vilhof,1994).Therefore,thisthesisisconcernedwiththepotentialtoimproveandexpandthepublictransportsystemintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaasoneelementinasustainabletransitionofthetransportsector,becausethiscanstrengthenthealternativetoprivateroadtransportandtherebyfosteramodalshiftandreduceautomobiledependence.Ascapacitiesofpublictransportmodesarewaylargerthanthoseofprivatecars(seeFigure3),publictransportcanmakemoreeffectiveuseoftheavailablespaceinurbanareas(Banister,2008).Furthermore,calculationsshowthatwhentransitreplacescartravelitappearstosubstitutebetween5and7kilometresofcartravelfor1kilometreoftransit(NewmanandKenworthy,1999).ForthepublictransportsystemintheGreaterCopenhagenAreatoserveasanattractivealternativetoprivatecarsthereisaneedtoaddressthefutureroleofpublictransportinasustainabletransportsystem,both20,30,40and50yearsahead(BanisterandHickman,2013)–andtoensurethattheselong-termgoalsarecoordinatedacrossactorswithinthesector.

Figure3.Maximumcapacitiesfordifferenturbantransportmodes.(UITP,2015)

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The need for coordination in building a strong public transport sector Oneofthechallengesforsustainabletransitionofthetransportsectoristheneedforcoordination.Sjöblom(2011)identifiesarisinginterestincoordinationinthetransportsector.Hehighlightstheubiquityofthediscourseofcoordinationandarguesthatcoordinationshouldbetreatedasanobjectofstudyinordertobridgeconflictinginterestsratherthanmerelyasananalyticalcategory(ibid.).Inaccordancewiththis,SagerandRavlum(2004)arguethatelementsfromthreeprimarygovernancestructuresshapecoordinationofinteragencytransportplanning:market,hierarchy,andnetwork,eventhoughthesearerarelyfoundintheir‘ideal’formsbutratherco-existinsociety.Coordinationistherebyconstitutedbybothcompetitioninmarkets,powerrelationsinhierarchiesandtheabilitytocooperateinnetworks(ibid.). TheseaspectsappeartohaveaneffectonpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Hereoneofthechallengesforimprovingpublictransportispreciselythelackofcoordinationbetweenkeyactorsincludingthelackofcoordinatedplanningeffortsacrosstransportmodes,andconsequentlyacrosstransportagencies.Furthermore,Jespersenetal.(2017)haveidentifiedalackofstrategiccoordinationbetweenplanningofindividualandpublictransport.Comparedtoothermetropolitanregions,thepublictransportsectorintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaisconstitutedbymanyactorsasalladministrativelevelsoftheDanishpoliticalsystem–thestate,theregionsandthemunicipalities–playaroleinthefieldoftransportplanning.Furthermore,threepublictransportcompanies–DSB,MoviaandMetroselskabet–planandoperatepublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea. Incomparison,Londonisconstitutedbyonemainagency,TransportforLondon,alocalgovernmentorganisationresponsibleforallmainaspectsofLondon’stransportsystem(TransportforLondon,n.d.).Comparedtoothercities,CopenhagenperformspoorlyinoverallcustomersatisfactionintheBenchmarkinginEuropeanServiceofPublicTransport(BEST)surveyasseeninFigure4.Jespersenetal.(2017)suggestthisstemsfromthelackofcooperationamongpublictransportcompaniesatbothoperationalandstrategiclevels.Themanyactorsthuschallengeinteragencytransportplanningcoordinationandtherebyalsolong-termvisioninginthepublictransportsector.

Figure4.DevelopmentinoverallsatisfactionfromBEST-survey2015amongbothusersandnon-usersofpublictransport(BEST,2016). Actors and coordination in the public transport sector in the Greater Copenhagen Area HistoricallytherehavebeenattemptstoimprovecoordinationandcreatemoreconcentratedeffortsinthepublictransportsectorintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Oneofthefirstattemptswasin1974throughtheestablishmentofHovedstadsrådetasanadministrativeentitytoundertakeregionaldevelopmentincluding

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publictransportplanning.Before1974publictransportwasdividedbetweenmanyactors:KøbenhavnsSporveje,DSB,theprivaterailways,and35publicandprivatebuscompanies(seeFigure5).TheestablishmentofHovedstadsområdetsTrafikselskab(HT)wasaturningpointsinceitassembledplanning,constructionandoperationofbusesandfrom1978alsotheS-trainsunderoneentitythatneverthelesscausedmanycontroversiesbetweenDSBandHT(Marcussen,1996).Coordinationinthisperiodwasensuredthroughregionalplans.WhenHovedstadsrådetwasputtoanendin1989,publictransportwas“replacedbyastructurewithmoreactorsandwithoutcommongoals”(Marcussen,1996,p.4).ThelastcontributionofHovedstadsrådetwastheplanproposal“Kollektivtrafikplan1989”whichofferedsuggestionsforthefuturecooperationbetweenHT,DSBandtheprivaterailways(Hovedstadsrådet,1989). ThenextattempttoimprovecoordinationwaswhenHovedstadensUdviklingsråd(HUR)wasestablishedin2000asasortofreplacementofHovedstadsrådet.HTwasabolished,andinsteadHURTrafikwasgiventheresponsibilityofplanningandoperatingbusesandtheformerprivaterailwaysataregionallevel.However,HURonlymanagedtodeveloponeregionaltransportplanbeforeitwasabolishedin2007aspartofthemunicipalreform(HovedstadensUdviklingsråd,2000).Initsresponsetothehearingrequestofthemunicipalreform,HURrecommendedtheestablishmentof“onecommontransportcompanyfortheGreaterCopenhagenAreawithresponsibilitiesforbothbus,S-train,metroandlocalrailways”(HovedstadensUdviklingsråd,2004,p.2)–arecommendationwhich,however,wasneveradopted.InsteadthebusandlocalrailwaycompanyMoviawasestablishedbymergingthethreeformerbuscompaniesonSjælland(HURTrafik,StorstrømsTrafikselskabandVestsjællandsTrafikselskab)intoonecompany(seeFigure5).

Figure5.Timelineshowingthelargeamountofpublictransportcompaniesandhowtheyhavebeenmergedthroughtime.ThegraphshowshowS-trainswasatsomepointpartofHTandnotDSB,anditshowshowthecurrentpublictransportcompanies–DSB,MoviaandMetroselskabet–arepartofthecollaborationinDOT.

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ResponsibilityofpublictransportprovisionintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaisthuscurrentlydividedamongfourpublictransportcompanies;DSB,Movia,MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane.HovedstadensLetbane,whichisorganisationallyplacedunderMetroselskabet,iscurrentlyonlyresponsibleforconstructionandnotforanyoperation.Eachoftheotherthreecompaniesisinchargeofplanningandoperatingonecertaintransportmodewithinadelimitedgeographicalarea.DSBisresponsiblefortrainsatnationalandregionallevels,Moviaforbuses(andafewlocaltrains)attheregionalandlocallevel,andMetroselskabetformetrolocally–seeFigure6.

Figure6.Interestsofthethreepublictransportcompaniesatageographicallevel. Apartfromcoveringdifferentgeographicalareasthethreecompaniesareownedbydifferentauthoritieswhichcomplicatescoordination.DSBisanationallyownedcompanyundertheMinisterofTransport,BuildingandHousingwithalonghistorydatingbackto1848.Moviawas,asalreadymentioned,formedduetothemunicipalreformin2007andisownedbyRegionHovedstaden,RegionSjællandand45municipalities.Metroselskabetdatesbackto1993butwasestablishedinitscurrentformin2007andisownedbythestatethroughtheMinistryofTransport,BuildingandHousing(41.7%),theMunicipalityofCopenhagen(50%),andtheMunicipalityofFrederiksberg(8.3%). Thisdivisionofresponsibilitybetweenseveralactorschallengesthepotentialforastrongerpublictransportsectorinseveralways.Oneofthemainchallengeswithinthecurrentsystemisthateachpublictransportcompanyhasaninterestinoptimisingitsownsystemratherthantheoverallpublictransportsystem(Petersen,2017;Jespersen,2017).Increasingpassengernumbersinonepartofthesystemmaythereforederivefromadecreaseinotherparts,andthisisnotnecessarilycoordinatedacrossthethreecompanies. Coordination across public transport companies is manifested through Din Offentlige Transport SincetheabolishmentofHURTrafiktherehavebeendifferentattemptstoimprovecoordinationintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Inrelationtothemunicipalreformin2007LawontransportcompaniesobligedthetransportcompaniesonSjællandtocollaboratetoensureacoherentpublictransportsystemintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(Transport-ogBygningsministeriet,2005).Inpractice,thisworkwasundertakeninthenotveryformalised“Direktørsamarbejde”.In2014,thiscollaborationwasformalisedbymeansofanewLawontransportcompaniesandtheumbrellaorganisationDinOffentligeTransport(DOT)wasestablishedinJanuary2015(seeFigure5)(Transport-ogBygningsministeriet,2014).AsvisualisedinFigure7,DOTconsistsofDSB,

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Movia,andMetroselskabetandcoverstheareainwhichMoviaoperates,howeverthisthesisisonlyconcernedwithpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreasincechallengesofpublictransportareverydifferentfromurbantoruralareas.ThemainresponsibilityofDOTarecustomerrelatedactivitiesliketicketsalesandcustomerservice(seeTable1)andthusnolong-termvisioningatamorestrategicleveltakesplaceinDOT.DOTisorganisedthroughaboardinwhichthedirectorofcustomerrelationsofthethreecompaniesisrepresented.

Figure7.VisualisationofDOTasanumbrellaorganisationforthethreepublictransportcompanies DOT must be responsible of*: DOT can be responsible of:

• Ticket sales • Customer service • Administration of lost property • Travel regulation • Traffic information • Marketing • Communication

*The companies are not allowed to manage these activities autonomously outside DOT

• Fare systems • Revenue sharing • Coordination of timetables • Analysis and benchmarking

Table1.WhatDOTmustandcanberesponsibleofaccordingtoLawontransportcompanies(BasedonTransport-ogBygningsministeriet,2015). SinceitsestablishmentDOThasbeencriticisedfromdifferentsidesincludingRegionHovedstadenwhocomplainedaboutthelowlevelofintegrationanddecision-makingpowerinDOT(Struensee&Co,2016).Furthermore,themanyactorsattheownerlevel,thedifferentorganisationalforms,thedifferentdecisionmakingprocessesandthemanydifferentfinancialsourcesmakesitdifficulttoincreasecoordinationofpublictransport(ibid.).Inapressreleaseitisarguedthat“eventhoughDOTisonestepontherighttrack,itbasicallydoesnotaddressthemassivecongestionchallengesthattheGreaterCopenhagenAreaisfacing”(RegionHovedstaden,2016).SomethingthatisagreeduponinaneditorialoftheDanishjournalIngeniøren:

“Therealityisthatcartrafficisjustgrowingandgrowingwhilethesocietyinvestsbillionsinnewsignals,metroexcavation,railwaylines,electrification,andlightrails.Thishappenswithoutanyrealcoordinationofactivitiesorcommonsuccesscriteriaofthepublictransportcompaniesthatarerathercaughtinaneternalfightforticketrevenuesfromthepassengers.Itsimplyhastogetbetterifwehavetojustifythehugeamountsofmoneythatweinvestinpublictransport.”

(Ingeniøren,2015)

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Words are not translated into actions Currently,thepublictransportcompaniesgenerallyworkwithrathershorttermvisions(4-12years)thatdonotaddressthechallengesofsustainabletransition30or40yearsahead(Movia,2016;DSB,2014;Metroselskabet,2014).Ininterviewswiththeactorsofthepublictransportcompanies,demographicandtechnologicalchangesarementionedaselementswhichwillinfluencethetransportsectorinthefuture,butcurrentplansshowalackofactivelytakingthesedevelopmentsintoaccount.OnlyMetroselskabethasrecentlypointedtowardstheneedfordiscussingthefuturepublictransportsectorthrougharecentstudyonmegatrendsandthefutureroleofpublictransport(MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane,2017),butgenerallythereisalackofthesediscussionsamongthecompaniesandnodiscussionslikethesetakeplaceinthecontextofDOT.Additionally,eachcompanyhasitsownvisionwhichisnotnecessarilyalignedwiththevisionsoftheothercompanies. ToaddressthecomplexchallengeswithinthetransportsectorintheGreaterCopenhagenAreathereisaneedtoimprovecoordinationacrossthepublictransportcompanies.Thiscoordinationneednotjustbeaddressedintheshorttermonsingleaspectslikecustomerrelatedactivities,butratherthereisaneedtosubstantiallyincreasecoordinationatamorestrategicleveltobeabletoaddresstheconsiderablechallengesthattheGreaterCopenhagenAreaisfacing.Thisrequiresbothimmediateactionbutalsocallsonthepublictransportcompaniestoemployamorelong-termapproach,includingcoordinatedlong-termvisionsforthefutureroleofpublictransportinasustainabletransportsystem. Addressing long-term challenges through backcasting Therearemanywaysinwhichamorelong-termapproachcanbeemployedandthefieldoffuturestudiesprovideseveralapproaches.Futurestudiescanbedividedintothreemaincategories,whereinVergragtandQuist(2011)arguethatmostscenariosareforwardlookingbyextrapolatingfrompresentdaytowardsthefuture:

1. Trendextrapolationsandbusinessasusualscenarios–whatwillhappen 2. Forecasting,foresightingandstrategicscenarios–whatcouldhappen 3. Normativescenarios,desirablefuturesandvisions–whatshouldhappen

(BasedonVergragtandQuist,2011) Inlinewiththis,Börjesonetal.(2006)namethethreeapproachespredictive,explorativeandnormative,althoughtheyarguethatforecastingshouldbeincludedinthefirstcategoryasforecastingscenariosareanattempttopredictwhatisgoingtohappeninthefuture.Anotherapproachtoscenariosarebackcastingstudies,whichareconcernedwithdevelopingnormativescenariosandthereforesitwithinthethirdcategory.Backcastingentailsamoresystematicapproachofworkingbackwardsfromthedesirablefuturetothepresentbydetermininganddescribingthepathwayneededtorealisethenormativevisionsofthefuture(Dreborg,1996).Itcanthereforeworkasanapproachtofacilitatediscussionsonsustainabletransportfuturesbyidentifyingtherequiredmeasurestoachievethedesirablefutureandtherebytranslatewordsintoactions. AlsoinDenmark,severalscenariostoaddressthechallengesofthefuturetransportsystematanationallevelhavebeendevelopedbykeyactorsinthetransportsectorthroughtime,ofwhichafewshouldbementionedhere.ThefirstcomprehensiveDanishscenariostudywasproducedin1977andexploredfivedifferentscenariosofthetransportsectoratanationalleveltowards2000(TrafikforskningsgruppenATV,1977).Thestudywaspartofthelimitstogrowthagendaandexploredindividualvs.publictransportunderhighandlowlevelsofgrowthrespectively(ibid.).Threedecadeslater,theTechnicalUniversityofDenmark(DTU)undertookalikewisecomprehensivestudyinvestigatingsixfuturescenariostowards2030(DTU,2006).Thesescenariosfocusonpersonaltransportandtakeintoaccountnotjusteconomicgrowthbutalsotechnologicaldevelopment,regionalisation,environmentalissues,andweremeanttoworknotasascientific

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examinationoraconcretebasisfordecision-makingbutratherasinputstotheongoingdiscussionsonfuturetransportandinfrastructure(ibid.).Morerecently,throughitsreportonmegatrends,MetroselskabetpresentedthreescenariosmorespecifictothepublictransportsectorintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane,2017).Onescenariofocusesonindividualtransportanddriverlesstechnologies,anotherfocusesonblurringthedemarcationlinebetweenindividualandpublictransportthroughMobilityasaService(MaaS)solutionsandthethirdfocusesonastrongandsustainablepublictransportsector(ibid.).Commontothesestudiesisthattheyareallexplorativescenariosfocusingonwhatcouldhappen. Incontrasttothis,in2012Teknologirådetundertookabackcastingstudywithamorenormativecharacter(Teknologirådet,2012).ItwasdevelopedaspartofadiscussiononwhatthetransportsystemofDenmarkcouldlooklikein2050ifitwastobesuppliedby100%renewableenergyinordertoreachthenationalgoalsofCO2emissionsreduction(ibid.).Thepurposewastoexplorewhatconsequencessuchatransitionwouldhaveintermsofmodalsplit,mobilitypatterns,energycostsandinfrastructureinvestments(ibid.)Thestudyexploresareferenceorbusinessasusualscenario,ascenariofocusingmerelyontechnologicaldevelopmentandamorenormativefossilfreescenariofocusingnotjustontechnologiesbutalsoonhowtoencouragemodalshiftsandchangedmobilitypatterns(ibid.).Thestudyconcludesthattechnologicaldevelopmentalonecannotsolvetheissuesofsustainability,hencetheonlywaytoreachthisgoalisthroughthefossilfreescenario,atransitionwhichisbothdeemedpossibleandeveneconomicallyfeasibleifcombinedwithlimitedgrowthintheamountoftraffic(ibid.).Partofthisscenariowastheidentificationofcertainpolicymeasurestobeimplementedinordertoreachthegoal.Thesepolicymeasureshave,however,notyetbeenimplemented. AbackcastingstudyinSwedencametoasimilarconclusion:thatifweonlyrelyontechnologywecannotreachCO2emissionsreductiontargetstowards2050,butrathertheauthorsarguethattechnologicaldevelopmentshouldbesupplementedbypolicypackageswhichcanbothreducetraveldemandandfostermodalshifts(ÅkermanandHöjer,2006).TheyarguethatthemainpolicymeasuresshouldconcernincreaseduseofITandstrongerurbanplanningmeasuresandalsothatchangeswithinbothinstitutionalandspatialstructuresareneeded(ibid.). Backcasting as an approach to allow for systemic transformation to achieve sustainability Asmentionedbefore,backcastingisconcernedwithnormativefuturesandisthereforesuitableforsustainabilityorientedsystemicchanges(VergragtandQuist,2011).Itwasinitiallyintroducedinthe1970sintheenergysectorwhereitwasappliedinplanningandstructuringofenergysystemsandhassincebeenappliedtoawiderangeofsocietalissuesregardingsustainability(Wangel,2011a).Backcastingservesasanappropriateapproachtoaddresssustainabilityissuesduetothemainideaofworkingtowardsadesirablesustainablefuture(Miola,2008)andbyallowingforamoresystemicsocietaltransformationinordertoachievesustainability(VergragtandQuist,2011).Ageneraldefinitionofbackcasting(visualisedinFigure8)isrepresentedbyRobinson(1990),whopioneeredbackcastingasananalyticalframeworkinwhichitwaspossiblenotonlytodefineadesirablefuture,butalsotoidentifyanddescribeapathwaytorealiseit:

“Themajordistinguishingcharacteristicofbackcastinganalysisisaconcern,notwithwhatfuturesthatarelikelytohappen,butwithhowdesirablefuturescanbeattained.Itisthusexplicitlynormative,involvingworkingbackwardsfromaparticulardesirablefutureend-pointtothepresentinordertodeterminethephysicalfeasibilityofthatfutureandwhatpolicymeasureswouldberequiredtoreachthatpoint.”

(Robinson,1990)

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Backcastingisthusnotonlyaboutdevelopingavision,butalsoabouthowtodevelopstrategiesandpathwaystoachievethatvision(VergragtandQuist,2011).Therefore,backcastingisanapproachthatpotentiallycanbridgethegapbetweenvisionsandthepresent.

Figure8.Backcasting:workingbackwardsfromadesirablefuturetothepresenttoidentifytherequiredpolicymeasurestoreachthedesirablefuture. Backcastingisnotnecessarilytheoppositeofforecastingeventhoughthewordingmightsuggestso,butratherthetwoapproachesaredesignedforsolvingdifferentproblemsbasedondifferentviewsonscientificexplanationinthesocialsciences(Dreborg,1996).Onecrucialpointonwhichthetwoapproachesdifferintermsofscientificexplanationisontheattitudetowardsuncertainty.Whereforecastingscenariosoftenapplysensitivityanalysestoaccountforvariationsinexternalvariables,thepoliciesidentifiedthroughbackcastingratherdescribesthestrengtheningorweakeningoftrendsasachoicefortheauthoritieswhoformulatepolicies(ibid.).HöjerandMattson(2000)evensuggestthatforecastingandbackcastingarecomplementaryinthesensethatforecastingtoolscanbeusedtoquantifytheconsequencesofthedifferentpolicymeasuresidentifiedthroughbackcasting. Whenundertakingabackcastingstudy,itisessentialtoacknowledgetheexistenceofdifferentcategoriesofbackcasting;target-orientated,pathway-orientated,andaction-orientated.Thesethreecategoriesareallpartofaresult-orientatedbackcastingapproach.Target-orientatedbackcastingfocusesonwhatshouldbechangedinordertoachieveacertainresult,oftendescribedinaquantitativemanner(Wangel,2011a).Thefocusinpathway-orientatedbackcastingislessonquantitativegoal-fulfillingbutratheronhowthechangescouldbeensuredbyexploringandbridgingthegapbetweenthepresentandthesustainableimagesofthefuture(ibid.).Action-orientatedbackcastingfocusesonwhocouldbringaboutchangebydevelopingsomekindofstrategyoractionplanandalsoincludesstakeholderidentification(ibid.).Eventhoughbackcastingstudiesoftentakeonlyoneofthethreecategoriesasapointofdeparture,thecategoriesarenotnecessarilymutuallyexclusiveandbackcastingstudiesoftenincludemorethanoneapproach(Höjeretal.,2011;Wangel,2011a). Theresult-orientatedapproachcanbedistinguishedfrombackcastingasaparticipation-orientatedworkshoptechnique,whichshouldnotbeseenasaseparatecategorybutratherasanapproachwhichcanbeappliedtoallthreeoftheaforementionedcategories(Wangel,2011a).Intheresult-orientatedapproachonecanthusverywellmakeuseofparticipatorybackcasting,howeverthemaindifferencebetweenthetwoisthatinparticipatorybackcastingtheoverallaimisnottheresultsassuchbutrathertheoutcomesofparticipationsuchasempowerment,increaseinsocialcapitalorcreationofother‘softvalues’(ibid.).Inrelationtothisthesis,participatorybackcastingcouldpotentiallyalsocontributetoincreasingcoordinationamongtheinvolvedactors–somethingwhichisnotspecificallyaddressedeitherbyWangelorotherresearchersofbackcasting. Backcasting in transport planning Intransportplanningtraditionalforecasting–sometimeslabelledasthepredictandprovideapproach–isstilldominant.However,severalstudiessuggestthatbackcastingcanproveveryusefulintermsofinvestigatinghowtoachievesustainabletransportfutures.Themainjustificationforusingbackcastingintransportplanningisthatitcanconnectshort-termandlong-termtargets,itcanhelptoidentifypotentialconflictsbetweentheneededmeasuresanditcandisplaytheactualconsequencesofachievingtargets(Höjer

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etal.,2011).Inadditiontothis,thepurposeofthisthesisistoinvestigatewhetherbackcastingcancontributetoimprovingcoordinationamongactorsinvolvedintransportplanningandtherebyactasanadditionaljustificationforapplyingbackcasting. CommontoseveralstudiesistheirsuggestionthatCO2reductiontargetscannotbeachievedmerelybytechnologicalinnovation,whichinsteadneedtobecombinedwithpoliciesfosteringbehaviouralchangeintermsofreducingtransportdemandandencouragingmodalshiftsfromindividualtopublictransportation(HickmanandBanister,2007;ÅkermanandHöjer,2006;Teknologirådet,2012;Höjeretal.,2011).Suchpoliciescanincluderoadpricing,supportingsustainabletransportthroughurbanformandurbanplanning,workplaceandschooltravelplans,carsharingprogrammesandmanyothers(HickmanandBanister,2007).Eventhoughmanystudieshaveidentifiedusefulpolicymeasurestoachievesustainabletransportsystems,severalauthorsincludingBanisterandHickman(2013)haveidentifiedanimplementationgapbetweenbackcastingresearchandthewayinwhichknowledgefrombackcastingstudiesistranslatedandactuallyimplementedaspolicymeasures.Theythereforerecogniseaneedforimproveddialogueandknowledgetransferbetweenresearchersandpractitionerswithinthefieldoftransportplanning(ibid.). Lack of focus on actors in backcasting studies Thisidentifiedimplementationgapstemspartlyfromthegenerallackoffocusonsocialstructuresandagencyinbackcastingstudies,accordingtoWangel(2011a;2011b).Throughaliteraturereview,Wangel(2011a)explainsthatthesocialobjectsofchange,theactors,arerarelyincludedinbackcastingstudies.Accordingtoher,thereisagenerallackoffocusonwhocouldbringaboutchangeandthisobstructsthedevelopmentofsocio-technicallyconsistentscenariosasmostscenariosarebasedonexistingsocialstructuresratherthanquestioningthem,which,Wangelargues,isnecessarytobringaboutchange.Therefore,bynotaddressingactorsinanexplicitandexplorativeway,socialstructuresandagencyaremaintainedaccordingtothestatusquo(ibid.).Focusingonthechangeagentscanthereforebeinterpretedasanotherwaytoovercometheimplementationgapasthereisaneedtounderstandtheroleofactors,becausetheyaretheoneswhoneedtoplan,implementandmanagethesuggestedtransition(ibid.).Ifactorsarenotincludedthereisariskthatthesuggestedchangeswillneverbeimplemented.ThisviewissupportedbyOlssonetal.(2015)whoarguethatsocietalandpoliticalconditionsareoftennotfullyincludedinbackcastingstudies,whichcallsforamoresocio-technicalapproachinbackcasting.Theinclusionofchangeagentsinbackcastingstudiescanthereforeeasethetranslationofbackcastingstudiesintoactualimplementationofpolicymeasuresbythekeyactorsentrustedwithpromotingchange(Wangel,2011b). Incontinuationofthis,Wangel(2011b)suggestsseveralwaysofaddingactorstobackcastingstudies.OnewayofaddingactorstobackcastingstudiesisthroughapolicyandchangemethodunderwhichActor-NetworkAnalysisismentionedasonepossibleapproach(ibid.).Thequalityofpolicyandchangeapproachesisthattheynotjusthighlighttheimportanceofactors,butalsopointathowsurroundingstructuresandactorscangiverisetoconstraintsandresistancetochange(ibid.).Shearguesthatwhenthepurposeofabackcastingstudyistocontributetosomesortofactionplan,itisofkeyimportancetoidentifyanddescribewhichactorsarerequiredtogetthingsdone.EventhoughWangel(2011b)addressestheneedforincludingactors,shedoesnotexplicitlyaddresstheneedforincreasingcoordination.Wesuggestthatmerelyidentifyinganddescribingactorsisoftennotenoughsinceseveralactorsareusuallyinvolvedinimplementingthechangessuggestedthroughbackcasting–actorswhoseinternalrelationsarecriticalwhendevelopinganactionplan.Increasingcoordinationamongactorsthereforebecomesakeyaspectinpromotingchange.Asthisthesisisconcernednotonlywithspecificactorswithinthefieldofpublictransportplanningbutalsothecoordinationbetweenthem,itbecomesrelevanttoincludeactorsandaspectsofcoordinationinthebackcastingscenarioproducedthroughthisthesis.

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Problem formulation Seenfromasustainabilityperspective,therearemanychallengesaroundtheexistingtransportsystem,bothnationallyandmorespecificallyintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Likewise,thereisgreatpotentialforstrengtheningpublictransportsystems.Oneofthemainchallengesforsuchanimprovementseemstobethemanyactorsthatconstitutethesesystemsandthelackofcoordinationbetweenthem.Ratherthancoordinatingactivitiesandvisions,thepublictransportcompaniesarecaughtinfightsoverpassengersandticketrevenues.ThecurrentcollaborationinDOTonlyaddressescoordinationofverylimitedelementsofthepublictransportsystemconcerningcustomerrelatedactivities.Additionally,thevisionsoftheindividualcompaniesandofDOTarerathershort-sightedanddonotaddressthefutureroleofpublictransport20,30or40yearsahead. Backcastingisanapproachtoaddressdesirablefuturesbyapplyinganormativeperspective,andtosupportasustainabletransitionofourcitiesandtheirpublictransportsystems.Assuch,thepurposeofthisthesisistoinvestigatetheopportunitiesandchallengesofbackcastingtocreateasharedlong-termvisionforallpublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Inthiscase,along-termvisionshouldbeconceivedasavisionatastrategiclevelconcernedwithholisticplanningofpublictransport.Aspartofthisinvestigation,theaimistoinitiatediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransportamongkeyactorsinthefieldbyshowinganexampleofabackcastingscenariothroughwhichtheseactorscancollectivelyaddresssustainabletransportfutures.Anadditionalaimofthisthesisistocontributetoexistingscientificknowledgeonbackcastingbyinvestigatinghowbackcastingcancontributetoimprovingcoordinationbetweenactors.Theproblemformulationwhichthisthesisseekstoanswerisasfollows:

SincethepublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreacurrentlycollaboratethroughDOT,itseemsrelevanttofocusonthiscollaboration.Aspartoftheproblemformulation,onesub-questionthereforeseekstoshedlightonthecurrentchallengesofcoordination:

Theanswertothissub-question,whichwillbedescribedandelaboratedinthefirstanalysis,willformthebasisofansweringtheproblemformulationinthesecondanalysis.

Problem formulation: What are the opportunities and challenges regarding the use of backcasting to create a long-term vision across public transport companies in the Greater Copenhagen Area in order to contribute to improving coordination?

Sub-question: What are the current challenges of coordination among the public transport companies and to

what degree does the current collaboration allow for creation of a long-term vision?

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Methodological framework Theaimofthissectionistodescribethemethodologicalframeworkofthethesis,includingconsiderationsontheappliedmethodsandhowtheycontributetoansweringthestatedproblemformulation.Thisentailspresentinghowthemethodsaffecttheresultsoftheanalysesconductedinthisthesis. Suchconsiderationsarepartofaresearchdesignensuringthatthecollecteddatacananswertheposedresearchquestioninanadequateandreliablemanner,whichiswhyaresearchdesignisneededbeforecollectingdataforthesubsequentanalyses(DeVaus,2001).Intheconstructionofaresearchdesignitisappropriatetoreflectonwhethertheresearchquestions,thecollecteddataandtheappliedmethodsandtheoryarecapableofansweringtheproblemformulationinquestion(ibid.).ThemethodsappliedinthisthesistoanswerthestatedproblemformulationarevisualisedinFigure9.

Figure9.Visualisationofmethodsappliedinthisthesistoanswerthestatedproblemformulation. Weperformacasestudyastheprimarymethodology,whichisinformedbydatacollectedthroughthreemethods:documentanalysisandliteraturereview;semi-structuredinterviews;andparticipationinexternalconferences.Furthermore,asthisthesisisnotonlyconcernedwithstudyingpastorongoingprocessesinaspecificcasebutalsototesttheopportunitiesandchallengesofusingaspecificapproach–i.e.backcastingasapotentialsolutiontosolvetheidentifiedchallenges–scenariobuildingthroughtheconceptsofbackcastingisanothermethodappliedtostudythecaseinquestion.However,sinceitwasnotpossibletoconductafullparticipatorybackcastingstudywithinthegiventimeframeofthisthesis,wehaveinsteadbuiltanexampleof

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abackcastingscenarioinordertopresentandtestbackcastingasamethodtothekeyactorsofthespecificcase(seep.27onscenariobuilding).Reflectionsandjustificationofalltheappliedmethodswillbemorethoroughlyaccountedforinthefollowingsections. Case study Sincethisthesisconcernstheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrossthetransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,itisnecessarytogainin-depthcontextualunderstandingonhowthetransportcompaniescurrentlyaddressthechallengesandopportunitiesofthefuture,bothwithineachindividualcompanyandthroughthecollaborationofDOT.Thisrequiresamethodologicalapproachthatcangraspthecomplexityofsuchareal-lifesituation,includingtheinterests,relationshipsandareasofresponsibilitythatdefinehowthecompaniesactbothindividuallyandincollaboration(Yin,2014).Wehavechosenacasestudyastheprimarymethodbecausethisprovidestheopportunitytoobtaincontextualknowledgeonthecausalprocessesthattakeplacewithinandaroundthepublictransportsector,andthusallowsforunderstandingwhyandhowcertaineventsaretakingplace(DeVaus,2001). Byallowingtheresearchertoreachadeeperlevelofdetail,casestudiescanpotentiallybringforwardnewknowledgeonthegiventopicwhich–despitethecontextdependency–maybetransferrabletosimilarcontexts(Richards,2009;Flyvbjerg,2006).However,thisrequiresthattheresearcherisawareofthecontext-dependencyofthestudyandavoidsshort-endedgeneralisationswhentransferringnewknowledgetoothercontextsfacingsimilarissues(Richards,2009). Thequestionofgeneralisationandlackofcredibilitywhentransferringknowledgeobtainedfromonecontexttoanotherisamongthemostcommoncriticismsofcasestudies(Flyvbjerg,2006).Additionally,criticsclaimthatthereisanimmediateriskofcasestudiesbeingusedaspureverificationbiasedbytheinterpretationsandsubjectiveviewsoftheresearchers(ibid.).However,Flyvbjerg(2006)challengesthisviewbyarguingthatthesecriticismsareifnotwrong,thenatleastoversimplifiedandmisleading.Oneofhiskeypointsisthatonlythroughcasestudiescanresearchersgetthein-depthcontextdependentknowledgewhichallowsfortheresearchertomovefroma‘rule-basedbeginner’toa‘virtuousexpert’(ibid.).Hefurtherarguesthatwhenstudyingcasesinvolvinghumanaffairsthereappearstoexistonlycontext-dependentknowledgeandthatthisknowledgeisbestobtainedthroughcasestudies(ibid.).Casestudiescanthusprovideanuancedviewofreallifesituationswhichgoesbeyondrule-basedknowledge,andinrelationtothisFlyvbjerg(2006)stressestheimportanceofresearchersbeingstrategicwhendefiningthecaseinordertoincreaseitsgeneralisability.Hearguesthatformalgeneralisationisoverestimatedasthemainsourceofscientificprogressandthatmoreweightshouldbegiventotheforceoftheexamplethroughcasestudyresearch(ibid.). Asmentionedintheproblemanalysis(p.12)thecaseofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaisdifferentcomparedtoothermetropolitanregionsinthesensethatthepublictransportsectorisconstitutedbymanyactors.Therefore,precautionsshouldbetakenwhengeneralisingtheabilityofbackcastingtogeneratecoordinationbetweenentitiesresponsiblefortransportprovisioninadelimitedareasimilartotheonestudiedinthiscase.However,similarconfigurationswhereprivateactorsareinvolvedinthepublictransportsectorexistinothercities,andthecasestudyinthisthesiscanserveasageneralisableexampleofsuchasituation.Also,theanalysiscanpotentiallycontributewithnewknowledgewithinthefieldofbackcastingespeciallyregardingthecurrentlackofacademicknowledgeandexperienceregardingtheinclusionofcoordinationamongactorsinbackcastingstudies.Inrelationtothis,thebackcastingscenarioconductedinthisthesis(seeAnalysisonbackcastingonpp.47-68)putsconsiderableemphasisontheinclusionofactors.

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Document analysis and literature review Thepurposeofthesub-questionoftheproblemformulationistoinvestigatethecurrentlevelofcoordinationinDOT,whichnotonlyincludesvariousstakeholdersbutalsocontradictoryperceptionsofthequalityofthiscollaboration.Ithasthereforebeenimportanttosupportdatafromthequalitativesemi-structuredinterviewswiththemostobjectivedatapossibleasthesecanhelptoprovideanin-depthunderstandingofthecurrentlevelofcoordination.Toaccommodatethis,wehaveundertakenadocumentanalysisasacontributiontothequalitativecasestudyofthisthesis.Bowen(2009)arguesthatcombiningmethodologieswhenstudyingthesamephenomenonaddscredibilitytoastudybyhighlightingcoincidencesandconflictingdataandstatements.Inthisthesis,thedocumentanalysisincludeslawmaterialdefiningthetasksofDOT,variousanalysesonDOTandthepossibilitiesofrestructuringthecollaboration,quantitativeanalysesontheexpecteddevelopmentwithinthetransportsector,reportsfromexpertgroups,andlastlystrategiesandtrafficplansfrombothDOTandtheindividualtransportcompanies.Thesedocumentshaveprovidedanunderstandingoftheinterestsofthedifferentstakeholders,includinghowtheyperceivethefutureandtheneedforfurthercoordination,whichhasbeenessentialwhendevelopingthebackcastingscenario. Asthisthesisinvestigatestheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrossthetransportcompanies,ithasbeennecessarytogetathoroughunderstandingofbackcastingandthepossibilitiesandlimitationsforitsusewithintransportplanning.Therefore,wehaveconductedaliteraturereviewasamethodologicalapproachtoensuretheinclusionofstate-of-the-artknowledgeonbackcastinginthisthesis(seeProblemanalysispp.14-17).Thishasalsohelpeddefinewhichelementsofbackcastingtoapplyinthisthesis.Asamethod,aliteraturereviewisanappropriatewaytoobtainarelativelyhighlevelofknowledgewithinagivenacademicfieldbylearningfromexistingexperiencesonthetopicinquestion(Flick,2009).In-depthacademicknowledgeonbackcastinghas–asmentionedabove–beenofkeyimportancewhenbuildingthebackcastingscenarioofthisthesiswhichcontributestoansweringtheoverallproblemformulation.Furthermore,sincethisthesisinvestigatesthepossibilityofbackcastingcontributingtoimprovingcoordinationbetweenthetransportcompanies,theliteraturereviewfocusesonacademicbackcastingstudiesinwhichsimilarapproachestotheimportanceofactorshavebeenapplied. Semi-structured interviews Thisthesisconcernsacomplexsituationinwhichtheviewpoints,interestsandresponsibilitiesofvariousstakeholdersaredecisivetoansweringtheproblemformulation.Itisthereforenecessarytogainin-depthqualitativeknowledgewhichcanrepresenttheperspectivesofthetransportcompaniesandotherrelevantactors.Wehavechosensemi-structuredinterviewsastheprimarymethodfordatacollectionasthisapproachensuresthecreationofsimilarframeworksforallinterviewswhileallowingindividualintervieweestoprovidemorespecificinformationonaspectsthatheorshefindsrelevant(KvaleandBrinkman,2015). Asthisthesisisnotonlyconcernedwithanalysingthecurrentsituationbutalsowithtestingideasofapotentialsolutionfortheidentifiedproblems,wehaveconductedatotalof10interviewsintworoundsasvisualisedinFigure10.Oneroundprovidedknowledgeonthecurrentchallengesofcoordinationamongthepublictransportcompaniesinordertoanswerthesub-questionoftheproblemformulation.Thesecondroundallowedfortestingthebackcastingscenarioinordertoanswertheoverallproblemformulation.Atableofallinterviewees,theirposition,andtheirspecificcontributionisprovidedinTable2.Theinterviewshaveallbeenrecordedandaverbatimtranscription(seeappendixC)hasbeenundertakentoenablein-depthdataanalysis(seep.25).

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Figure10.Interviewsinchronologicalorderincludingwhatelementsofthethesistheinterviewscontributedto. Inthefirstroundweconductedfivesemi-structuredinterviewswithkeyactors.Besidesprovidingknowledgeonthecurrentlevelofcoordinationtheseinterviewsalsoaimedatbringinginsightintohowtheactorsperceivefuturechallengesofthetransportsectoratamoregenerallevel,includingthefutureroleofpublictransport.Theseinsightsservedasusefulinputswhenconductingthebackcastingscenario. Aspartofthefiveinterviews,weconductedapreliminaryinterviewwithChiefConsultantandTeamLeaderofMobilityinRegionHovedstaden,BirgitElisePetersen,sincetheregionhasbeenarticulatingtheneedforbettercoordinationwithinDOTthroughvariousanalysesandlobbywork.ThisinterviewthusservedasanintroductiontothescopeofDOT.Additionally,theintervieweerecommendedthethreeboardmembersofDOTaskeyinformantsinordertogainanin-depthunderstandingoftheexistingcollaboration.Basedonthatrecommendation,wehaveinterviewedDirectorofCommunicationsandBrandinginDSBandchairmanofDOT,LarsKaspersen,ChiefofStaffwithresponsibilityofcommunication,press,brandingandcustomersandboardmemberofDOT,CamillaStruckmann.Unfortunately,itwasnotpossibletosetupaninterviewwiththeboardmemberfromMetroselskabet,RebekkaAukenNymark,duetoherbusyschedule.Instead,wehaveconductedaninterviewwithHeadofDepartmentforCustomersandNeighboursinMetroselskabet,HanneTærsbølSchmidt,whohasalsobeendeeplyinvolvedinthecollaborationdynamicsofDOT.ThiswasfollowedbyaninterviewwithChiefConsultantinHovedstadensLetbane,JørgenØstergaard.However,throughthisinterviewitbecameapparentthatHovedstadensLetbaneonlyplaysaminorroleinthecurrentcollaboration,sincethelightrailisonlyaconstructionprojectandalladministrativetasksofHovedstadensLetbanearecurrentlyundertakenbyMetroselskabet.Becauseofthat,thisactorwasnotincludedinthesecondroundofinterviews. Thefirstroundofinterviewswasbasedonsimilarlookinginterviewguidestoensurethepossibilityofcross-checkinganswersacrossinterviews(seeappendixB1-B2).Theinterviewguidesconsistedofopen-endedquestions,givingtheintervieweesthepossibilitytoelaboratetheirresponsebeyondthescopeoftheposedquestions(Turner,2010).Inrelationtothis,weaimedatremainingneutralduringtheinterviewinordertoavoidindicatingadesiredanswerorshowingotheremotionalexpressionstowardstheinterviewees(ibid.).

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BecausetheinterviewedactorswithinDOTareallhiredwithincustomerrelations–andasthisthesisaimsatinvestigatingtheopportunitytocreatealong-termvisionatamorestrategiclevel–itseemedappropriatetoconductasupplementinginterviewthatmightprovideconsiderationsintothemorestrategicplanningtasksofthecompanies.Therefore,thefirstroundofinterviewswassupplementedbyaninterviewwithDivisionalManageratCentreforTransportandPlanninginMovia,TorstenRasmussen,whoprovidedtheseinsights.However,duetothelimitedtimeframeunderwhichthisthesiswasconducted,itwasnotpossibletoeitherconductorprocessdatafrominterviewswithsimilaractorswithinDSBandMetroselskabet.Thisisapotentialshortcomingofthisthesis. Betweenthetwomainroundsofinterviews,weconductedanadditionalinterviewwithAssociateProfessoratRoskildeUniversityandformermemberoftheCongestionCommissionPerHomannJespersen.Heisalsothechairmanofagroupofexpertswho–onthebasisofinquirybyRegionHovedstaden–producedadiscussionpaperonthepotentialreorganisationofDOTinordertoprovidebetterandmorecost-effectivepublictransport.Thepurposeofthisinterviewwastoaddexpertknowledgeonthetopicofcoordinationamongthetransportcompaniesandtotestknowledgegainedfromthefirstroundofinterviewsinordertoensurereliabilityandvalidityofthesedata.Furthermore,thisinterviewwasconductedafteradraftforthebackcastingscenariohadbeenproduced,thustheintervieweecouldprovideinputsandcriticalconsiderationsonthescenarioasasortofqualitycheckbeforepresentingthescenariotothekeyactorsinDOT. Inordertotesttheabilityofbackcastingtoinitiatediscussionsonacommonlong-termvision,theoriginalideawastoorganiseaworkshop.However,asallkeyactorsarebusypeopleitwasnotpossibleforthemtoallocatetimeonthesameday.Insteadwesettledforasecondroundofindividualinterviewswiththekeyactors.Unfortunately,therepresentativeatMetroselskabetrefusedtomeetduetoherbusyschedule.Furthermore,LarsKaspersenfromDSBpostponedtheinterviewtwiceandultimatelycancelledit,althoughforthesecondappointmentKaspersenhadinvitedRuneJonJensen,HeadofSecretariatinDOT,toparticipate.Ineffect,onlyRuneJonJenseninDOTandCamillaStruckmanninMoviatookpartinthesecondroundofinterviews,whichconstitutesanotherpotentialshortcomingofthisthesis.ThetwointerviewsweresupplementedbyaninterviewwithBirgitElisePeterseninRegionHovedstaden,consideringthattheregionactsasanimportantactorthroughitslobbyworktowardsapotentialrestructuringofDOT.Theintervieweesreceivedashortdocumentonthebackcastingscenario(seeappendixA1)priortotheirinterviews.Asthefocusoftheseinterviewswastogatherinputsfortheproposedscenarioandtheassociatedmeasuresinordertooptimisethatscenarioandanalysethepotentialofbackcasting,wefollowedalessstrictinterviewguide(seeappendixB5),allowingintervieweestomorefreelyelaborateontheirresponses.

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Name and company/authority

Position and academic background Particularly contributed to the thesis in relation to:

Birgit Elise Petersen Region Hovedstaden

Chief consultant and team leader of mobility Employed since municipal reform in 2007 Academic background: Architect and urban planner

• Overall regional planning for public transport and the role of Region H

• Limitations and challenges of current collaboration of public transport companies and the potential for a ‘Transport for Greater Copenhagen’

• Inputs for final backcasting scenario • Opportunities and challenges of backcasting to

initiate discussions on long-term vision

Lars Kaspersen DSB

Director of Communications and Branding Employed since 2012 Chairman of DOT in 2016/17

• Knowledge on current challenges of coordination as understood by DSB

• Potentials and limitations of DOT

Camilla Struckmann Movia

Chief of staff with responsibility of communication, press, branding, business plan, and customers Employed since 2015 Board member in DOT Academic background: Master and Law and Master in IT

• Knowledge on current challenges of coordination as understood by Movia

• Potentials and limitations of DOT • Inputs for final backcasting scenario • Opportunities and challenges of backcasting to


Torsten Rasmussen Movia

Divisional manager of consultancy in the Centre for Transport and Planning Employed since 1983 Academic background: Civil engineer

• Knowledge on strategic work and visions of Movia • Professional discussions on possible transport

futures and scenarios

Hanne Tærsbøl Schmidt Metroselskabet

Head of Department for Customers and Neighbours Employed since 2010 Academic background: Political science

• Knowledge on current challenges of coordination as understood by Metroselskabet

• Potentials and limitations of DOT

Jørgen Østergaard Hovedstadens Letbane / Metroselskabet

Chief Consultant Employed since 2011 Academic background: Political science

• Knowledge on current challenges of coordination as understood by Hovedstadens Letbane

Rune Jon Jensen DOT

Head of Secretariat Employed since 2015 Academic background: Economics and Business Administration

• Inputs for final backcasting scenario • Opportunities and challenges of backcasting to


Per Homann Jespersen RUC (Roskilde University)

Associate Professor Academic background: Civil engineer in chemistry

• Expert knowledge on the coordination between public transport companies

• Quality check of the backcasting scenario

Table2.Listofallintervieweesandtheirspecificcontributiontothethesis.

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Reflections on interviews – reliability and limitations Duringallinterviews,weremainedawareofpotentialbiasesofintervieweesgiventhattheirwillingnesstobecriticaltowardstheirowncompanymightbelimited. Thefactthattheintervieweesinthepublictransportcompanieswereallhiredwithincustomerrelationsandnotthedepartmentsundertakingstrategicdevelopmentisanotherlimitationtothisthesis.Eventhoughthiscancausesomeconstraintsontheinterviewees’capabilitytounderstandandanswerquestionsregardingstrategicaspects,itseemedimportantforthisthesistotakeitsstartingpointinthecurrentcollaboration,i.e.DOT.Therefore,thefocuswasongainingthoroughinsightsintothecurrentworkundertakeninDOT,includingitslimitations.Inordertomakeupforthislack,wehavealsointerviewedanemployeeinvolvedinstrategicdevelopmentinMovia.Ifmoretimehadbeenavailable,itwouldhavebeenusefultoincludeinterviewswithsimilaremployeesintheothertwocompanies. Anotherlimitationofthisthesisisthelackofinterviewswiththeownersofthetransportcompanies.AtthislevelonlyRegionHovedstadenisrepresented.Itmighthavebeenusefultoconductinterviewswithotheractorsattheownerlevel,i.e.state,municipalitiesandRegionSjælland,asseveraloftheintervieweeshavementionedtheseaskeyactorswhendefiningoverallstrategiesofthecompanies,whichinturnwouldplayintothecurrentlevelofcoordination.Again,thiswasnotpossibleduetotimeandresourcelimitations. Data analysis Inordertoprocessandanalysethequalitativedatafromtheconductedinterviews,wehavestructuredrelevantquotesfromeachintervieweeintwotablessortedbythemesrelevanttothisthesis(seefigure11)–oneforeachroundofinterviews.Thetablefromthefirstroundofinterviewsgivesanoverviewofdifferencesandsimilaritiesbetweenstatementsoftheintervieweesandthushighlightstheirindividualroleandinterests,butalsotheirrelationsincludingtheirdifferentviewsonthecurrentlevelofcoordination.Thiswaypotentialconflictsarerevealedandthetableallowsforidentificationofkeyfindingsthroughcomparisonandanalysisofselectedquotes.Weappliedthesamemethodforthedatacollectedinthesecondroundofinterviewswherequotesoftheintervieweeswerestructuredaroundthedifferentelementsofthescenario.Inthiswayitwaspossibletocompareandidentifysynergiesbetweenquotes.Furthermore,thistableallowsforanalysisoftheopportunitiesandchallengesofbackcastingasanapproachtocreatealong-termvisionandtherebycontributetoimprovingcoordinationsinceitrepresentsthedifferentviewsbytheintervieweesonthetopic.

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Figure11.Exampleofthedataanalysisofinterviewsfromfirstroundofinterviews,whererelevantquotesarestructuredinanextensivetablesummarisingkeyfindingswithinmainthemes. Participation in external conferences DuringthethesisweparticipatedintwoexternalconferencesconcernedwiththefutureroleofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(seeappendixDforparticipantobservationnotes):

• “Megatendenserogfremtidenstransport”(MegatrendsandTransportFutures)organisedbyRegionHovedstadenonthe6thofApril2017

• “Hvordanfårvimereogbedrekollektivtrafikforpengene?”(Howdowegetmoreandbetterpublictransportforourmoney?)organisedbyRegionHovedstadenonthe9thofMay2017

Participationintheseconferenceshasgivenusefulinsightsintocurrentdiscussionsonthefuturetransportsectoramongkeyactorsinthefield,revealingrelevantaspectsontheirrelationships,viewpointsandinterests.Likewise,bothconferenceshaveservedasamediumthroughwhichwecouldmakeourselvesvisibleinthediscussion. ThefirstconferencewascentredaroundareportonmegatrendsandthefutureroleofpublictransportinGreaterCopenhagenAreaconductedbyMetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbaneandfinanciallysupportedbyRegionHovedstaden(MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane,2017).Atthisconference,therewasevidenceofconsensusaroundtheuncertaintyofthefuturetransportsectoramongkeyactorsinthefieldespeciallyintermsofbothtechnologicalinnovationandstructuraldevelopmentsuchasurbanisation.Wefurtherobservedthattheparticipantsagreethatdiscussionsonhowtoaddressfuturechallengesareneeded.Furthermore,thepresentationsattheconferenceaccountedforviewpointsonhowthesefuturechallengescouldbeaddressed,whichservedasinputsfornarrowingdowntheproblemfieldofthisthesis.Lastly,theconferencemadeitpossibletoestablishtwoimportantcontacts.OnewithProfessorGlennLyonsfromtheUniversityoftheWestofEngland,Bristolwhogaveapresentationontheneedforpractitionerstoadoptmorenormativeplanningapproachesinordertoaddresstheaforementioned

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uncertainties.Hegaveadviceonhowtoapplymorenormativescenariosandwhatpitfallstobeawareofwhenbuildingscenarios.Attheconferenceweweregiventhechancetoshortlydiscussourthesisandtheuseofbackcastingwithhim.Additionally,wegainedcontacttoPerHomannJespersen. ThesecondconferencewasorganisedasadiscussionmeetingwithamoreconcentratedfocusonthepotentialreorganisationofDOTasawaytoachievebetterandmorecost-effectivepublictransport.MorespecificallythemeetingwasbasedontwospecificpiecesofworkbyRegionHovedstaden:ananalysisoforganisationinothermetropolitanregionsconductedbytheconsultingfirmCOWI;andtheaforementioneddiscussionpaperonapotentialreorganisationofDOTconductedbyagroupofexpertsledbyPerHomannJespersen.Participantswereallkeyactorsinvolvedinthepublictransportsector,includingtheboardmembersofDOT.Agreatshareofthemeetingwasdedicatedtodiscussingcoordinationamongthepublictransportcompaniesinwhichweparticipatedactively.Thediscussiongavenewinputsfortheconductedanalysesofthisthesisaswellasinsightsintotherelationshipsbetweentheactors.Themeetingalsoservedasanopportunitytopresentourexampleofabackcastingscenariotokeyactorswithinthefield,includinghandingoutaleaflet(seeappendixA2)toallparticipants. Scenario building Sincepartofthisthesisisconcernedwithtestingpotentialsolutionstotheidentifiedchallengesofcoordinationthroughbackcasting,ithasbeenessentialtocreateanexampleofabackcastingscenario.Tocreatesuchanexample,theinitialideawastoconductaworkshopwiththethreeboardmembersofDOTinordertoinvolvethemasactiveparticipantsinaparticipatorybackcastingapproach(Wangel,2011a).Suchaworkshopwouldbothserveasareal-lifetestoftheopportunitiesandchallengesofbackcastingasanapproachtocreatecommonvisions,aswellasallowforobservationoftheactors’willingnessandabilitytocollaborate.However,asmentionedabove,itwasnotpossibletofindadatewhereallactorscouldparticipate.Instead,wehavebuiltanexampleofabackcastingscenariowiththepurposeofpresentingittotheinvolvedactorsinordertoobserveandanalysetheirresponses.Dataforthisscenariocamefromabroadrangeofqualitativesources,includinginterviews,participantobservationnotesfromconferences,externalanalysesandothersimilarscenariostudies,aswellasplansandstrategiesofthetransportcompanies.Furthermore,thescenariobuildingwasbasedonknowledgeacquiredthroughacademicliteratureonbackcasting. Duetolimitedtime,resourcesanddata,ithasnotbeenpossibletoconductafullbackcastingstudybutratherweconductedthescenariowithenoughlevelofdetailfortheactorstounderstandbackcastingasanapproachtocreatelong-termvisionsandconnectsuchvisionstoactualinitiatives.Sinceafullbackcastingstudycouldnotbeconducted,ourfocushasbeentocreateonenormativevisionwhichcontainsseveralthemesthatsetadirectionforitsrealisation.Wethenappliedbackcastingtoonethemeinordertoactasanexampleofthemethodologyintermsofidentifyingwhichspecificmeasuresarerequiredfortherealisationofthistheme.ThisisvisualisedinFigure12.Itshouldbestressedthatithasnotbeenasuccesscriteriaforthisthesistoreachasituationwhereallintervieweesagreewiththeproposedscenario,butratherthescenarioshouldserveasabasisfordiscussingthepotentialforacommonvisionandhowbackcastingasanapproachmightservetocreatesuchavision.AsimilarapproachhasbeenadoptedbyKoketal.(2011),wherevariousbackcastingscenariosincludingactionagendas(similartopolicypackages)weredevelopedthroughabroadparticipationofactorswiththepurposeofinitiatingdiscussions. Togiveathoroughdescriptionofhowandwhythescenariohasbeenbuilt–includingmethodologicalconsiderations–wewillelaborateoneachelementofthescenariobuildinginthefollowing.

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Figure12.Backcastingscenario,wherebackcastingisappliedtoonethemeoftheoverallvisioninordertoidentifyanddescribethemeasuresforitsrealisation. Vision Asdescribedintheliteraturereview(seeProblemanalysispp.14-17),thekeypurposeofbackcastingistoworkbackwardsfromanormativeendpointtoidentifyanddescribethemeasuresrequiredforitsrealisation.Backcastingstudies,especiallytarget-orientatedbackcasting,ofteninvolvesettingaquantitativegoalasanendpoint(Wangel,2011a).However,inthevisionproducedinthisthesis,thenormativecharacterderivesfromaqualitativedescription–akindofnarrative–ofthefutureroleofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaby2040.ThevisionispresentedinFigure17onp.48.Year2040seemedasanappropriatetimeframesinceitisnottooextensiveforthetransportcompaniestorelateto,andyetlongenoughtoallowforsubstantialtransitions.Itisevidentthattherealisationofaqualitativevisionallowsforabroadermarginofinterpretationcomparedtoaquantitativegoal,e.g.aspecificCO2reductiontarget.However,itwasnotpossibletosetaquantitativegoalduetolackofdataonhowtheidentifiedmeasurescouldcontributetoachievingsuchagoal.Wealsofounditlikelythataquantitativegoalcouldpotentiallyworkagainstthepurposeofapplyingabackcastingapproach,i.e.toinitiatediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransport.Furthermore,qualitativevisionshavebeenappliedinpath-orientatedbackcastingstudiesasawaytoexplorethepathtorealisethegoalandtherebywhatmeasurestoinclude(Järviet.al.,2015;Höjeret.al.,2011).However,ifafullbackcastingstudyweretobeconductedonthecaseinquestion,itwouldeventuallybenecessarytodefineamoreoverallquantitativegoal. Theoverallfocusofthevisionwasinspiredbythefirstroundofinterviewswhichincludedquestionsregardingchallengesofthecurrentcoordination,thepossibilitiesofcreatingacommonlong-termvisionwithinDOT,aswellasquestionsregardingthemainchallengesofthefuturetransportsector.Throughasynthesisofthesedatawehavecreatedavisionthathighlyfavourspublictransportinordertosupporttheinterestsofthepublictransportcompanies.Withthelackofdirectinvolvementofactorsinthecreationofthevision,awarenesshasbeengiventoourpotentialsubjectivityandbiases.However,bydeliberatelyfocusingonmakingthevisionasrelevantaspossibleforthekeyactors,wehavesoughttoeliminatesubjectivityandbiases.Furthermore,thelegitimacyofthevisionisensuredthroughtestingitwiththeactors. Themes Astherealisationoftheproposedvisionentailsabroadrangeofmeasures,theimplementationandrealisationofwhichdependonvariousactors,includingdifferentregulatorymeans,themeasureshavebeenarrangedaccordingtoanumberofthemes.Thethemesactaspolicypackages–aconceptcommonlyappliedinvariousbackcastingstudies(HickmanandBanister,2007).Eachthemeprovidesrealisationofpartsofthe

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vision,meaningthatthethemesshouldbothbeseenasbothseparatebutalsointerlinked,asitisnecessarytocarryoutallthemesinordertoreachthedesirablefuturedescribedinthevision.Thethemeshaveemergedfromourinternaldiscussiononwhatitwouldrequiretorealisethevision.Throughthisdiscussionitbecameapparentthatsomeaspectsofthevisionrelatedtomeasuresofspatialplanning,sometoinvestmentsininfrastructure,sometotechnologicalinnovationintermsoffossilfreetechnologies,whileothersrelatedtothecoordinationbetweentraditionalpublictransportmodesandothermodesoftransport–inotherwordstheconceptofMobilityasaService(MaaS).MaaSisashiftawayfrompersonallyownedvehiclestowardsseeingmobilityasaservicebycombiningtraditionalmodesofpublictransportwithothertransportmodessuchassharedcars,bicyclesetc.intoaunifiedsystemandholdsgreatpotentialforfuturetransportsystems(McCluskey,2016). Duetotimeandresourcelimitations,weonlyappliedbackcastingtooneofthesethemesinordertoidentifyspecificmeasuresforitsrealisation.Thethemechosenformoredetailedanalysiswasthethememostcloselyrelatedtothecollecteddata,i.e.MaaS(seepp.50-51inAnalysisonbackcasting).Furthermore,asthepurposeofthisthesisistotesttheopportunitiesandchallengesofapplyingabackcastingapproachratherthantoconductafullbackcastingstudy,itdidnotseemnecessarytoprovidefurtherdetailsonmorethanonetheme. Measures Likewise,weidentifiedthemeasuresneededforrealisingthethemethroughourinternaldiscussionbasedonthequalitativedatacollectedthroughthethesis.EspeciallytheconferenceonthefutureroleofpublictransportandtheinterviewwiththestrategicplannerinMoviacontributedwithimportantinputsonthepotentialforMaaS,includingthenecessarystepsforitsdevelopment.Casesfromothercities/regionswheresimilarmeasureshavebeenimplementedwerealsoincludedasimportantsourcesofinspirationandlegitimisationoftheproposedmeasures.Knowledgeontheprocessofsuchcasesandthetimeframeoftheirimplementationcontributedtoestimatingthesequencingofimplementationandtounderstandtherelationsbetweenindividualmeasures.Sinceallmeasuresrelyonuncertaintiesintermsofcertaintechnologiesorotherdevelopmentprocesses,westressedthattheproposedmeasuresandtimeframefortheirimplementationshouldserveonlyasaguidelinewhenpresentingthebackcastingscenariototheactors. Oneimportantelementofeachmeasurehasbeentoidentifyanddescribekeycontroversiesandthenecessaryactorconfigurationstoaddressthese.Thishasbeendoneinordertonotjustdescribewhatandwhyeachmeasureshouldbeimplementedbutalsotogiveattentiontowhoshouldimplementthemeasures(Wangel,2011a;Wangel2011b).Asdescribedintheproblemanalysisonp.17,thelackofinclusionofactorsisashortcominginmanybackcastingstudies,andsincethisthesisisconcernedwiththecoordinationbetweenactorswefounditappropriatetokeepastrongfocusonactors.Thisfocusonactorswillbeelaboratedmorethoroughlyinthetheoreticalframeworkonp.30.

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Theoretical framework ThepurposeofthissectionistoaccountfortheselectionofActor-NetworkTheory(ANT)asaviabletheorytocontributetoansweringtheposedproblemformulation.Thisincludesanintroductiontothetheoryanditsoverallpurpose.Secondly,themainconceptsofthetheorywillbeexplained.Thiswillbefollowedbyanexplanationofhowthetheoryisappliedtothecasestudiedinthisthesis.

Justification for using ANT Theaimofthisthesisistoinvestigatehowbackcastingcanbeusedtocreatealong-termvisionandinordertocontributetoimprovingcoordinationacrossthepublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Astheseactorshaveopposingandconflictingintereststhatcomplicatecoordination,theselectedtheorymustbeonethatallowsforstudyingthiscomplexity.Furthermore,sinceoneofthepurposesofthisthesisistosuggestchangestocurrentwaysofplanningforpublictransportandtherebyimprovecoordinationamongpublictransportcompanies,thetheoreticalframeworkmustallowforanalysingchangeinthemaking. ANTisatheoryofsocio-technicalchangeandstabilitythatconsidersscienceandtechnologyassocialprocessesandprovidesananalyticalframeworkforstudyingthedynamicsofscienceproduction.TherebyANTcanworkasalensforanalysingchangeinthemaking.AmainassumptionofANTisthatchangeandstabilityisconstitutedbycontroversiesamongactorssinceagreementordisagreementonthesecontroversiesdefinesrelationsbetweenactors.Inrelationtothis,anytechnologicalsystemorartefact,scientificclaimorsocialorganisationisconstitutedbyanetworkofbothhumanandnon-humanactors.Thestabilityandstrengthofsuchanentityisassociatedwiththeintensityofcontroversies,theinterconnectednessbetweenactorsandthusalsothelevelofcoordinationwithinthenetwork.Bystudyingcontroversiesbetweenactors,ANTcanthereforeserveasausefultheoryinanalysingcoordinationamongactorsasinthecaseofpublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea. ANTwasfirstproposedinthe1980sbyMichelCallon,BrunoLatour,JohnLaw,andmanyothersandgrewoutofthefieldofScienceandTechnologyStudies(STS).STSisadynamicinterdisciplinaryfieldofstudiesthatconsiderscienceandtechnologyaspartofsocietybyidentifyingastrongrelationbetweenscientificdevelopmentandsocietalchange(Sismondo,2010).Aspartofthisrelation,STSassumesthattechnologyandsciencearesocialactivitiesandthereforeinvestigateshowscientificknowledgeandtechnologicalartefactsareconstructedashumanproducts(ibid.).ThroughthisassumptionSTSsubscribestothetheoryofsocialconstructivisminwhichtechnologynotonlyshapeshumanaction,butlikewisehumanactionshapestechnology.STSemphasisesthewaysinwhichscientistsandengineersattempttoconstructstablenetworksandstructuresandconsequentlyhowknowledgeandartefactsareconstitutiveofcollectivesandsocieties(ibid.). Sinceitsformation,ANThasbeencontinuouslydevelopedbyseveralresearchers,leadingtotheANTterminologyconstantlychanging.However,inthefollowingsectionthekeyelementsofANTappliedintheanalysisofthisthesiswillbeaccountedfor.

Key elements of ANT TheprimarymethodologyofANTistotrackandfollowactantsoveraprocessofchange.Anactantcanbeanyactor,humanornon-human,endowedwiththeabilitytoact,i.e.“anactorisanythingdoingsomething”(Venturini,2009,p.266).ANTscholarsclaimthatisolatedactorsdonotexistasactorsarealwayscomposedbyandconstitutenetworks(ibid.).AccordingtoCallonetal.(1986)thepurposeofANTistoanalysetherelationsbetweenactorswithininterlinkedactor-networksinwhichactorsexertinfluenceoneachotherinordertoredefinethenetworktosupportacertainoutcome.ANTisthusaframeworkthatallowsforrevealingtherelationshipsandthelevelofcoordinationbetweenactorsduringaprocessofchange.Aspartofthestudyofanyprocessofchangeitisusefultoexplorethemomentsofcontroversy–thesituationswhereactorsdisagree(Venturini,2009).Exploringcontroversiesisaneffectiveapproachintrackingandfollowingactors,

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sincecontroversiesfunctionas“aspaceofconflictandnegotiation”(ibid.,p.261),thusstudyingcontroversiescanworkasalensthroughwhichrelationsbetweenactorscanbeanalysed.Furthermore,sincecontroversiesandrelationshipsbetweenactorsaredynamic,timeisanimportantfactorwhenanalysingprocessesofchange,andthereforeatemporalviewmustbeconsidered. ThemainconceptofANTistheprocessofformingactor-networks,whichareseenasheterogeneousnetworksofalignedinterests(Latour,2005).Theseheterogeneousnetworksencompasstechnological,social,economicandpoliticaldimensions(Rydin,2012).Astabilisedactor-networkistheoutcomeofaseriesofnegotiationsbetweenactorswhoovertimehavesuccessfullyformedanetwork.Suchastabilisationisnotpermanentbutcancertainlybepersistent(Callonetal.,1986).ActorswithinanetworkcanhavedifferentinterestsandsuchaviewpointofaparticularelementinthenetworkrepresentsanothercentralconceptofANT,i.e.thespokesperson.Thenatureofthespokespersonisonewiththecapacityandwishtoenrolordisplaceotheractorsandthusonewhocanfacilitateandsteeraprocessofchange(Callon,1986).Eventhoughthespokespersonsucceedsinestablishingconsensusandalliancesitisstillimportanttonotethatthesecanbecontestedatanymoment(ibid.).Therefore,anactor-networkisneveracompletelystablethingbutratherathinginthemaking. TheprocessoftranslationisanotherkeyconceptofANTaccordingtoCallon(1986).Translationsarewhathappenswhenactorsattempttotransformotheractorstoallowanactor-networkinsupportofacertainaimtobeestablished.Ineffect,translationisastrategicapproachtochangeinwhichalliancesandalignmentsbetweenactorsareestablished.Sinceallactorswillhardlyeveragreeonacommonoutcomewithinanygivennetwork,theprocessoftranslationisthusaprocess“duringwhichtheidentityofactors,thepossibilityofinteractionandthemarginsofmanoeuvrearenegotiatedanddelimited”(Callon,1986,p.203).Translationthusreferstothewayinwhichagencyamongactorsisnegotiated(Rydin,2012).Totranslatesomeoneistomakeotheractorsworkdifferentlythanbeforeasanapproachtobringaboutchange.Therefore,totranslateisalsotodisplace(Callon,1986).Totranslateanotheractoristoestablishoneselfasaspokespersonbyexpressinginone’sownlanguagewhatotherssayandwant,howandwhytheyactincertainways–andiftheprocessissuccessful,noactorwillopposethedesiredoutcomeofthespokesperson(ibid.).Thus,duringatranslationprocessactorsattempttoreachagreementonanoutcomethatwillbenefitallactorsinthenetwork(Callonetal.,1986),however,itshouldbenotedthattranslationisalwaysaprocessandneveracompletedaccomplishment(Callon,1986).AccordingtoCallon(1986)theprocessoftranslationconsistsoffoursteps,eventhoughnotallfourarerequiredinallprocesses:

Problematisation–Aqueryingofthecurrentstandpointofanactorandtheintroductionofadilemma,whichsuggeststhattheactorcaneitheragreewiththespokesperson–andindoingsoreceiveamutualbenefitfromsolvingtheiroutcomes–orbedisplacedandinsteadexistoutsideofthegivenactor-network.Throughtheproblematisation,thespokespersonframestheproblem,determinesasetofactorsanddefinestheiridentities,andconsequentlyrendersherselfindispensabletootheractorsintheactor-network. Interessement–Intheinteressement,thespokespersonattemptstoimpose,strengthenandstabilisetheidentityoftheotheractorsinthenetworkwhoweredefinedthroughtheprocessofproblematisation.Differentinteressementdevices,e.g.physicalartefacts,regulatorymeasuresetc.canbeusedforthisstabilisationofidentityoftheactors. Enrolment–thedefinitionanddistributionofacertainroletotheactorinthenewactor-network.Enrolmentisachievediftheinteressementissuccessful.Thedistributionofrolesisthustheresultofnegotiationsduringwhichtheidentityoftheactorsisdeterminedandtested.

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Mobilisation–thesuccessfulenrolmentofanactor.Thisenablesthespokespersontomakeuseoftheactorintheactor-networkinsupportofthedesiredoutcome–theactorhasbecomemobilised.

(BasedonCallonetal.,1986;Callon,1986)

Anotherconceptoftheprocessoftranslationrelatestohowtherelationshipsbetweenactorsaredefinedbyintermediariespassingbetweenthem,ofwhichfourmaintypesexist:literaryinscriptions,technicalartefacts,regulation,andmoney(Callon,1990).Morespecifically,inrelationtothefieldofplanning,Rydin(2012)pointstotheroleofplanningdocumentsasintermediariestobringactorsintorelationshipswitheachother.Translationcanbesaidtogothroughintermediaries(Latour,1996)andintermediariescanthereforeassembleactorsandcontributetodefiningtheirinternalrelationships. ForthemorepracticaluseofANT,theconceptofsimplificationisanessentialelement.Eachnetworkcanbesaidtoconsistofanunlimitednumberofactors,sowithoutconsideringsomenetworksassimplifiedandstable,analysisofactor-networkswouldbealmostimpossible.Suchastabilisationisoftenfosteredbyprocessesofstandardisation,classificationandcalculation,whichneverthelessareoftenhiddeninblackboxes(Rydin,2012).FromanANTperspective,technologicaldevelopmentisconsideredasprocessesofstabilisationorclosurewherecontroversiesdecreaseinintensityorwheretheinterpretationofanartefactbecomesmoreandmorestable.Atsomepoint,theartefactwillbesoresistanttochangethatitbecomesalmostimpossibletochangeit–ablackboxhasbeenestablished(Jæger,2000).AnexampleisthemetroofCopenhagenwhichisasimplificationofawidevarietyofrelationsbetweenbothhumanactors–likepoliticiansandplannersintheMunicipalityofCopenhagen,theMunicipalityofFrederiksbergandtheMinistryofTransport,BuildingandHousing;technicalpersonnel,andprivatecompanies–andnon-humanactorslikethetechnicalcomponentsintermsofmetrotrains,railsetc.Fordailyusers,however,themetroisonlyconsideredamodeoftransportandallthoserelationsarenotquestioned.Itistheserelationsbetweenactorsthatallowforsimplificationsandablackboxisthereforeseenascertainareaswithinnetworkswheretherelationshipsbetweenactorsareunchallengedandtherebytakenforgranted(Rydin,2012).

Applying theory to the case ThemajorityofcasestudiesbasedonANTareretrospectiveanalysesofsuccessesorfailuresininnovationandtechnologicaldevelopment(Akrich,Callon,LatourandMonaghan,2002).AnexampleisBrunoLatour’sattempttoexplainthefailureofimplementingAramis–anautomatedtrainsystemduringthe1970sand1980sinParis–notduetoanyparticularfailurebutasasetoffailedcoordinationofactionsamongpoliticians,planners,technicalpersonnel,privatecompaniesetc.(Latour,1996). However,inthisthesisthemethodologyofANTisappliedtoprocessesinthemakinginordertoassessthecurrentlevelofcoordinationamongthetransportcompanies.Furthermore,thepurposeofapplyingANTistoidentifyactorconfigurationsandexplorecontroversiesinordertodepictthenecessarytranslationsoveraprocessofchangetowardsastrengthenedpublictransportsector,includingimprovedcoordinationamongkeyactors.ByproactivelyapplyingtheoreticalframeworksofSTSduringaprocessofchange,theanalysisthusallowsforinclusionofotherwisetransparentelementsimplicitintheassumptionsandparadigmsoftheinvolvedactors(Elleetal.,2010).Additionally,whenoneexplorescontroversiesinchangeprocesses,issuesarebeststudiedwhentheyarestillunresolvedascontroversiesrapidlyloseallinterestonceagreementhasbeenreachedorthediscussionhasbeenclosed(Venturini,2009).Pastissuescanthereforeonlybeinvestigatedifonecanmovebacktothemomentinwhichthecontroversyplayedout(ibid.).Instead,moreisrevealedtotheobserverwhensystemsandnetworksarenotyetstabilisedamongtheinvolvedactorsthanisthecaseforanalreadystablesystem(Elleetal.,2010).ApplyingtheorieswithinSTStoongoingprocessesisthereforeanaturalandconsistentcontinuationoftheoriginalideauponwhichSTSisbuilt(ibid.). ApplyingANTtothecaseofthisthesiscanbothshedlightoncontroversiesandrelationsbetweentheinvolvedactors–includinghowactorstrytoexertinfluenceoneachother–aswellastheroleofnon-human

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elementssuchasplanningdocumentsandregulatorymeasures.Atpresent,sinceDOTisthemaincoordinatingnetworkofactors,theanalysiswillbebasedonstudyingagreementsanddisagreementswithintheDOTcollaboration.However,DOTisstillinthephaseofestablishmentandsomeactorsinthetransportsectorcurrentlytrytoinfluencethecollaborationinordertoincreasecoordination.Lookingintothisongoingprocessandthecontroversiesofestablishingcoordinationamongthepublictransportcompaniescanthusserveasanindicatorfortheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisioninordertocontributetoimprovingcoordination.

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Analysis on current challenges of coordination Theaimofthisisanalysisistoassessandunderstandthecurrentchallengesofcoordinationacrossthepublictransportcompaniesinordertoanalysetowhatdegreethecurrentcollaborationallowsforcreationofalong-termvision.Firstofall,wewillprovidein-depthknowledgeonhowandwhyDOTwasformed,sincethiscancontributetosheddinglightonkeycontroversiesandhowdifferentactorsinfluencedtheprocessesthatledtotheformationofDOT.Next,weturnourattentiontotheachievementsofDOTinordertoanalysehowtheinvolvedactorsperceivethecurrentsituationandwhatchallengestheyrelatetotheexistingcollaboration.Inrelationtothis,DOThasbeencriticisedfromdifferentsidessinceitsestablishment,acritiquewhichonexaminationcancontributetohighlightingtheongoingcontroversiesrelatedtothecurrentlackofcoordination.Incontinuationhereof,weidentifyandanalysefourkeychallengesrelatedtothecurrentcoordinationamongthepublictransportcompanies:focusonoptimisationwithineachcompanyratherthanthepublictransportsystemasawhole;lackofincentivesforlong-termholisticplanningacrossthecompanies;differentambitionsforthecollaborationinDOT;andlimitedcoordinationoflong-terminvestmentsbetweenthecompanies. ThroughtheperspectivesofActorNetworkTheorytheanalysiswillshedlightontheinternalprocessesrelatedtothesechallengesandtherebyunravelthecontroversiesbetweenactorsandhowtheseaffectthecurrentlevelofcoordination.ThesectioncloseswithadiscussiononthedegreetowhichthecurrentcollaborationinDOTallowsforcreationofalong-termvision. The formation of DOT DifferentformsofratherinformalcollaborationsbetweenthepublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreahaveexistedsincethe1970saroundtaskssuchasimprovementofstationsandestablishmentofacommonticketingsystemacrosstransportmodes(Trafik-,Bygge-ogBoligstyrelsen,2017).However,a2005lawdictatedamoreformalcollaboration.ThemainpurposeofthisLawontransportcompanieswastodictatehowbuscompaniesshouldbeorganisedinrelationtothemunicipalreformin2007,butfortheGreaterCopenhagenAreathelawalsorequiredthatacollaborationmustbeestablishedbetweenMovia,Ørestadsselskabet(whichlaterbecameMetroselskabet)andDSB,andthatayearlystatusreportcontainingresultsandsuggestionsforimprovementsshouldbeproduced(Transport-ogBygningsministeriet,2005).Thiscollaborationwasimplementedthroughthe“Direktørsamarbejde”(CollaborationofDirectors)coordinatedbyTrafikstyrelsen.Thenewlawgaveratherfreereinstothepublictransportcompaniesindefiningthetasks,butthecollaborationwascharacterisedbymanyinternalconflictsand,accordingtoDirectorofCommunicationsandBrandinginDSB,LarsKaspersen,itneverworkedoutasintended:

“Earlier,wetookpartinacollaborationintheGreaterCopenhagenAreawheretheDirectorsmetanditdidnotworkout.Ithinkthetransportcompaniesmadeamistake,thatinsteadofmakingitwork,itsimplydidnotworkout.”

(Kaspersen,2017)TheDirektørsamarbejdewascriticisedbymanyactorswhostartedquestioningtheorganisationofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,whichisvisualisedinFigure13.

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Figure13.Timelineshowingtheimportantevents,documentsandlawsinrelationtotheformationofDOTincludinghowdifferentkeyactorstrytoinfluencecollaborationamongthepublictransportcompanies. TheMinistryofTransportactedasthemainspokespersoninthisperiodofcriticism,producingseveraldocumentswhichquestionedthelackofcoordination.Thefirstofthese,a2010reportorderedbytheMinistryfromtheGermanconsultingfirm,BSL,emphasisedthedysfunctionalityoftheDirektørsamarbejde.Thereportpointedoutthatthecollaborationhadnorealpowertoenforcedecisionsonitsmembersandthatthisstructure,whichsolelydependedonthecommitmentsofparticipants,didnotsolveanyrealcoordinationtaskssuchasintegratedplanningofpublictransportsupply,commonmarketing,andrealtimeinformationacrosstransportmodes(BSL,2010).Thereporthighlightedthat,individually,allpublictransportcompaniesactedprofessionallyandinnovativeinattractingcustomerstotheirspecifictransportmode,butratherthechallengesconcernedtheorganisationalset-upwhichonlytoaverylimiteddegreeallowedforcoordination(ibid.).Asasolution,BSLsuggestedthecreationofTransportforGreaterCopenhagen–anumbrellaorganisationatthecoordinationlevelwhichwouldberesponsibleforlong-termtransportplanning,designofoverallpassengerinformationsystem,marketingandcommunication,unifiedcustomercareetc.Thisorganisationwouldthustakeoverthesetasksfromthepublictransportcompanieswhointurnwouldmerelybecomeoperators(ibid.)–seeFigure14.Eventhoughthisreportdidnotleadtoanyimmediateconsequencesforthepublictransportcompanies,itwaspartofaprocessofproblematisationinwhichtheMinistryofTransportstartedtoquestionthecurrentcollaborationbyinvestigatingalternativeorganisationalset-ups,inwhichidentityandagencyofthepublictransportcompaniescouldbedistributeddifferently.

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Figure14.ATransportforGreaterCopenhagenassuggestedbyBSL(BSL,2010,p.40) ThenextattempttoquestiontheDirektørsamarbejdecamein2012whentheCongestionCommissionwassetupbythegovernmentatthetimetoanalysecurrentandfuturechallengesofthetransportsystemintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,andtoproposeastrategythatwouldbothreducecongestionandairpollutionaswellasmodernisetheinfrastructureinthearea.Amongthemanysuggestions(49intotal)wastheproposalofaneworganisationalstructureofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(Trængselskommissionen,2013a).Inconcreteterms,fourdifferentmodelsoforganisationalset-upswithdifferentlevelsofintegrationwereproposed,rangingfromaconsolidationofthecompaniesintoone–inlinewiththeBSLreport–toanumbrellaorganisationwithalowlevelofintegration,containingalimitednumberoftasksonlyconcernedwithcustomerrelatedactivities–i.e.anorganisationlikethecurrentDOT(ibid.).Themainfocusoftheproposalwastotakepointofdepartureinthemobilityneedsofcustomersbyallowingforquickandeffectivecontiguoustripsacrossdifferentpublictransportmodes,butalsotoestablishcoordinationofstrategiclong-termplanningofpublictransport(ibid.). Basedonthesuggestionsofthecommission,firstpresentedinacatalogueofpotentialideasinFebruary2013(Trængselskommissionen,2013b),anevaluationofthe2005lawontransportcompanieswasundertakenbytheMinistryofTransportsimultaneouslywiththefinalreportingoftheCongestionCommission.TheMinistrywasbeginningtolosebothpatiencewithDirektørsamarbejdetandconfidenceintheabilityofthetransportcompaniestofacilitateandimprovecoordinationthemselves(Kaspersen,2017).TheevaluationidentifiedhowaconsiderableshareofthecustomersdonotperceivepublictransportasonecoherentsystemduetothelackofcoordinationbetweentheactorswithinpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea(Transportministeriet,2013).Theevaluationactedasapowerfuldocumentsuggestingdifferentmodelsforre-organisation:anexpandedversionofthe“Direktørsamarbejde”;anumbrellaorganisation;andamodelwithmaximumintegration(ibid.).Basedontheevaluation,theMinistryrecommendedanumbrellaorganisationasthebestpossiblesolutiontosolvetheidentifiedcoordinationchallengesconcerningcustomerrelatedactivities.ThismodelwascomparabletotheleastambitiousmodelsuggestedbytheCongestionCommission–onemaysuggestthattheMinistrylobbiedforthismodelbecausetheywantedasolutionthatwouldcausetheleastconflictbetweenthepublictransportcompaniesandthuswouldbeeasiertoimplement.Inrelationtothis,especiallyDSB'soppositiontoorganisationalrestructuringseemedtoweighinheavily,consideringthat–asanationalcompany–DSBexertssignificantinfluenceontheMinistry,asseveralintervieweespointout(Jespersen,2017;Petersen,2017).Furthermore,thesuggested

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umbrellaorganisationmodelactedasaresponsetosomeveryspecificallydefinedchallengesconcerningcustomerrelationswhileitfailedtoaddresschallengesatamorestrategiclevel. Basedonthis,theMinistryrequestedthatthepublictransportcompaniesthemselvessuggestedacommonmodelforsuchanorganisationalchange(DSB,MetroselskabetandMovia,2013).Thisledtotheapprovalofthe2014Lawontransportcompanies(Transport-ogBygningsministeriet,2014)whichforcedthroughamoreformalisedumbrellaorganisationacrossthepublictransportcompaniesaroundspecifictasksconcerningcustomerrelatedactivities.ThelawthusactedasanintermediarythroughwhichtheMinistryofTransportforcedtheactorstocollaborateandimprovetheirrelations.Basedonthelaw,whichgaveratherfreereinsastoexactlyhowtheumbrellaorganisationshouldbeconstituted,DOTwasfinallyformedinJanuary2015andwaslaterestablishedasanInteressentskabinNovember2017.Aninteressentskab(I/S)isaDanishformofpartnershipofatleasttwoowners,whoarepersonallyliable. Eventhoughthelawremovedsomeautonomyfromthecompaniestofacilitatethecollaborationthemselves,thepublictransportcompaniesacknowledgethatthenumerousconflictsbetweenthem,alongwiththefactthattheDirektørsamarbejdewasachievingveryfewresults,madeitnecessarytoforcethroughamoreformalisedcollaboration(Kaspersen,2017:Struckmann,2017).Bybeingforcedtocollaborate,therehasbeenagrowingrealisationamongthecompaniesthattheyaremutuallydependentoneachotherandcaneachbenefitfromcollaborating–acohesionthat,accordingtoMovia,willonlygrowasDOTachievesmoreandmoreresults(Struckmann,2017).WethereforesuggestthatthelawandthenegotiationsbetweenactorsduringtheformationofDOThasdistributedsomewhatnewidentitiestothethreepublictransportcompanies,inwhichinternalrelationshavebeenimprovedasthecompanieshaveslowlystartedrealisingtheirinterdependency. Main achievements of DOT SinceDOTwasformedin2015ithasbeenundergoingaprocessofstabilisationinwhichformercontroversiesbetweenthepublictransportcompanieshavedecreasedinintensity.Inrelationtothis,alltheactorsinDOThighlighthowtheyhavebeenstrugglingtoreachagreement–firstofallonhowtoformallyconstitutethecompany(Kaspersen,2017;Struckmann,2017;Schmidt,2017).OnekeyaspectofthesedisagreementsisthefactthatthecompanieshavedifferentambitionsregardingthecollaborationinDOT(seepp.44-45),althoughtheystillsucceededinreachingagreementonthe2020strategy.Themainfocusofthestrategyisvaluecreationforcustomersaswellasforthethreecompaniesthroughimprovingmarketingandbranding,travelinformation,correspondencebetweentransportmodes,etc.(DOT,2017).Thestrategyincludesfivestrategicgoalsconcerningcustomerrelatedactivitiesandseveralkeyperformanceindicators(KPI)aredefinedforeachgoal.Theseindicatorsaremeasuredthroughthecustomersatisfactionsurvey,asexemplifiedinFigure15(ibid.).ThenextstepforDOTistoconverteachstrategicgoalintoamoreconcreteactionplan.

Figure15.ExampleofKPI’srelatedtothecustomersatisfactionsurveyofthestrategicgoalCorrespondencebetweentransportmodes(DOT,2017,p.5)

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Themainpurposeofthestrategyistomaintaincurrentpassengernumbersinaperiodwherenumerouschangestothesystemwilloccurduetothemanynewdevelopmentsininfrastructure(Jensen,2017;Struckmann,2017).Assuch,MoviaseesDOTasacollaborationaddressingcurrentcustomerneeds,i.e.helpingcustomersthroughthecomingperiodandtherebyachievingmaximumreturnontheinvestments(Struckmann,2017). Seenfromamorestrategicsustainabilityperspective,underwhichimprovedcoordinationbetweenpublictransportcompaniesisdeemednecessaryinordertostrengthenthefuturepublictransportsystem,itisnotenoughtoaddressveryspecificchallengesontheshortterm.Seenfromthisperspective,thecurrentstrategyofDOTisthereforeunambitiousasitdoesnotaddressanystrategiccoordinationchallengesonthelongterm.Thisviewissupportedbysomeinformantswhoarecriticsinthefield,likeRegionHovedstadenandAssociateProfessoratRUCPerHomannJespersen(Petersen,2017;Jespersen,2017).TheactorsinDOTthemselves,however,seethestrategyasveryambitious:

“Itisanalignmentofwhatone[thepublictransportcompanies]shouldworkfor–withsomeveryclearandspecifictargets[KPI’s]onwhattoachievewiththiscollaborationby2020.Andthetargetsareveryambitious!”

(Struckmann,2017) Thefactthattheyperceivethestrategyasveryambitious,andthattheyseeitisagreatachievementtohavereachedagreement,indicatehowmalfunctioningtheformerDirektørsamarbejdewas.Eventhoughthestrategycanbeevaluatedasunambitious,itstillshowsaclearimprovementofthecollaborationamongthepublictransportcompanies.Accordingtoseveralinterviewees,thecurrentDOTcanthuspotentiallyactasasteppingstoneforexpandingtheareasofresponsibilityinthenearfuture(Struckmann,2017;Petersen,2017;Jensen,2017). Criticism since the formation of DOT DespitetheacknowledgementthatcollaborationbetweenthepublictransportcompanieshasimprovedsincetheestablishmentofDOT,ithasbeencriticisedbydifferentactorsofwhichRegionHovedstadenhasofferedsomeoftheharshestcritique.ExaminingthecritiquepointsputforwardbyRegionHovedstadenhelpshighlightingthecurrentchallengesofcoordinationseenfromtheperspectiveofanactoratownerlevel. RegionHovedstadenseesagreatneedforimprovedcoordinationbeyondactivitiesconcerningcustomersand–basedonoutcomesfromtheCongestionCommissionamongotherthings–theybelievethatDOTwasthelowestcommondenominator(Petersen,2017).Theirinterestsmainlystemfromtheirworkonregionaldevelopmentthroughtheregionalgrowthanddevelopmentstrategy(ReVUS)(RegionHovedstaden,2015),aswellastheireconomicinterestsinMovia,consideringthatRegionHovedstadeninvestsapproximatelyDKK0.5billioninoperatingbussesperyear–equivalentto50%ofalltheiravailablefundsforregionaldevelopment.Inordertobringdownspending,theyhaveasubstantialeconomicinterestinmakingpublictransportmorecost-effective,atleastwithinMovia. RegionHovedstadenseekstoestablishitselfasaspokespersontryingtofacilitateadiscussiononthecurrentlevelofcoordinationandaprocessofchangetowardsanexpandedversionofthecurrentDOT.Thisdiscussionisespeciallyinformedbytheissuesofcongestionanditsnegativeenvironmentalandsocioeconomiceffects.Themainargumentisthatbyaddingresponsibilitiesbeyondcustomerrelatedactivities,andbyincreasingthedecision-makingpowerofDOT,thecollaborationisbettergearedtowardimprovingcoordinationacrosspublictransportmodesandtherebyalsoacrossthecompanies(Petersen,2017).Nevertheless,RegionHovedstadenacknowledgesthefactthatDOTisasubstantialimprovementovertheDirektørsamarbejde:

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“Nowtheyhavechosenthisorderofmusketeers–thateverythingtheydotogetherisfantastic.AndthatisactuallyverygoodincomparisontotheoldDirektørsamarbejde,butitissimplynotenough.Wewantthemtogofurther.”

(Petersen,2017)

Thefirstattemptstoaddresstheissuesofcoordinationwerethroughtworeportsproducedin2015and2016bytheconsultingfirmStruensee&Co.Thefirstreportquestionedtheorganisationoftransportcompaniesandsuggestedthreeconcretemodelsforincreasedintegration(Struensee&Co,2015).However,thiswasheavilycriticisedbyactorswhodidnotbelieveRegionHovedstadenoughttointerfere.Duringtheinterviewconductedforthisthesis,theintervieweefromRegionHovedstadendidnotexplicitlyrevealfromwhereandwhomthisoppositioncame.Asanexampleofthisdelicatematter,inthefollowingtheintervieweeexplainshowmunicipalitieswerecallingthemtosaythat“theydidnotwantthisandthatmodel”andhowtheinvolvedactorsfelttheirpositionswerethreatened:

“Becauseeverybodystartstothink:amIaDirectorinsuchaneworganisation?AmIstillLeaderorHeadofDepartment?AmIevenemployed?Thisishowpeopleinstantlystarttothink,right?Thatisaverynaturalthingtodo.”

(Petersen,2017) Duetothethreatofpotentialreorganisation–whichtoacertaindegreeexistedsincetheMinistryofTransportfirststartedtoquestionthelackofcoordination–thepublictransportcompaniespromptlydefendedtheirownpositions,areactionweobservedduringtheconference“Hvordanfårvimereogbedrekollektivtrafikforpengene”(seeappendixD2). BecauseofthenegativeresponsetothefirstreportbyStruensee&Co,thefocusintheirsecondreportwaschangedslightlytowardsfindingwaystoimproveDOTwithinthecurrentlegislativeframework,ratherthansuggestingacompletereorganisationofthepublictransportsector.DuringtheinterviewswithkeyactorsinDOT,however,itbecameclearhowpowerfulthefirstreportwas,asitstillheavilyremainsinthemindsoftheactors:

“ThereisnodoubtthatRegionHovedstadenhavebeenverycriticaltowardsDOT.Andtheysuggestthatifyoucreateanewpoliticalagencyontop,thenitwillprovidebetter.(...).Personally,IamnotsureIsharethatopinion.”

(Struckmann,2017) Sincethen,itseemslikeRegionHovedstadenhasacknowledgedthefailureoftheirinitialapproachandhaveinsteadturnedtheapproachupsidedown:

“Sonowwecanmaybetrytodiscussvisions,andwhatitiswebelieveacollaborationacrossthetransportcompaniesshoulddo.Thenwecanstarttotalkaboutorganisationatalaterstage.”

(Petersen,2017)

WhereasRegionHovedstadeninitiallysimplyquestionedthecurrentstatusquo,itnowactsasanactivespokespersoninaprocessofcreatingalliancesandconsensusaroundtheneedforimprovedcoordination.Oneclearattemptofcreatingsuchanallianceistheworktodevelopapoliticalpaperpriortothemunicipalandregionalelectionsinautumn2017,statingtheviewsoftheinvolvedactorsonthepotentialsforDOTinthefuture.ThisworkisfacilitatedbyRegionHovedstadenincollaborationwithRegionSjælland,whotryto

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mobiliseKKRSjællandandKKRHovedstaden1toputpressureonthecurrentcollaborationinDOT.Thepurposeis“(...)tositdownandsay,whatcanweagreeon,howcanwejointlyverbalisethis,andthenmoveon”(Petersen,2017).Thepoliticalpaperissupposedtoexertinfluenceatalllevels,includingtheMinistryofTransport,inordertoconvincetheMinistrytoundertakeanevaluationofDOTwiththeaimofexpandingthetasksandincreasingthedecision-makingpowerofDOT. However,thefocusonreorganisationisstillpresent,giventhatRegionHovedstadenrecentlyfundedaprojectinwhichagroupofexperts–includingAssociateProfessoratRUCPerHomannJespersen–weretoanalyseboththecurrentDOTaswellassuggestpotentialfutureorganisationmodesofthepublictransportsector(Jespersenetal.,2017).Thefocusofthisdocumentbythegroupofexpertsisnottheorganisationalset-upperse,butrathertoidentifywhichchallengesdifferentorganisationalset-upsmaysolve.ThisdocumentthusactsasanothercriticalvoiceagainstthecurrentcollaborationinDOT.

Challenges stem from fundamental differences between the public transport companies EventhoughDOThasnotexistedlongenoughtofullyevaluatewhatcanbeachievedthroughthecollaboration,wehaveidentifiedfourkeychallengesforcoordinationamongthepublictransportcompaniesthroughinterviewsanddocumentanalysis:focusonoptimisationwithineachcompanyratherthanthepublictransportsystemasawhole;lackofincentivesforlong-termholisticplanningacrossthecompanies;differentambitionsforthecollaborationinDOT;andlimitedcoordinationoflong-terminvestmentsacrossthecompanies.Asallthesechallengesarerelatedtothefactthatthecompaniesexisttoundertakethreedifferenttasksacrossthreedifferentgeographicaldelimitations,itisessentialtounderstandthepurpose,tasksandorganisationofeachcompanyindepth,includingtowhatdegreeeachcompanycurrentlyworkswithlong-termvisions,aswellastheautonomyofeachcompanyinitsrelationtoitsowners.Thereareanumberofdifferencesbetweenthecompaniesregardingtheirintrinsiccharacteristicsthatentailsbarriersforimprovedcoordinationandacommonlong-termvisioninthecurrentcollaboration.Thiswillbeaccountedforinthefollowingparagraphs. DSBisanationalcompanywithalonghistoryreachingbackto1848,however,itwasestablishedinitscurrentformasanIndependentPublicCompany(SelvstændigOffentligVirksomhed)in1999(DSB,n.d.).ThemainresponsibilityofDSBistoplanandoperatenationalandregionaltrains,aswellasS-trainsintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.ThesoleownerofDSBistheMinisterofTransport,BuildingandHousingandtheintervieweeinRegionHovedstadenhighlightsthatDSBexertsgreatinfluenceontheMinister(Petersen,2017).DSBismanagedbyaboardofwhichsixmembersareappointedbytheMinisterandthreemembersarerepresentativesofthestaffofDSB.ThevisionofDSBistobethebackboneofpublictransportinDenmark,avisionthathasbeendevelopedbythecompanyitself,althoughitisregulatedthroughtheobjectsclauseofDSBaswellasthrougha10-yearcontractbetweenDSBandtheMinistryofTransport(Kaspersen,2017).ThecontractprescribesthelevelofservicethatDSBneedstoprovideonallitscorridorsinthefollowingtenyears.DSBisdependentonapoliticalmandatefromitsownerfornewinvestmentsandotherinitiatives,eventhoughDSBasacompanyhassomedegreeofautonomyaslongasitsworkcomplieswiththeobjectsclause(ibid.).Anationalpoliticalagreementfrom2015statesthatfrom2025DSBcanpotentiallyceasetrainoperationandinsteadberesponsibleforinvitingtendersforallnationalrailtrafficandthusbecome“Moviaonrails”(Regeringen,2015).Assuch,DSBisexposedtopotentialreorganisationinthenearfuture. Moviawasformedin2007andisresponsibleforallbusesandafewlocaltrainsintheareaofSjælland.Theowners–45municipalitiesandthetworegions–determinethelevelofserviceinspecificcorridorswithintheindividualowner’sgeographicalareaandMoviaensuresprovisionofthislevelofservice.Moviaismanagedbyaboardwhichincludespoliticiansfromtheownerlevelamongitsmembers.LikeDSB,the1KL(KommunernesLandsforening)hasaKKR(Kommunekontaktråd)ineachregion.EachKKRmanagesthemunicipalities’interestsonaregionallevelintermsoftasksthataremosteffectivelyresolvedinacollaborationbetweenthemunicipalitiesintheregion.

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companynaturallyhassomedegreeofautonomyandnotallsingleactionsneedtobeapprovedbytheboard,buttheboardsetstheoveralldirectionforMovia’swork(Struckmann,2017).TheTrafikplan–whichMoviaislegallyrequiredtodevelopeveryfouryears–manifeststheirstrategicworkandvisions(Rasmussen,2017).Itcontainsinitiativesforthefollowingfouryears,althoughsomeinitiativesreachfurther,e.g.inthecurrentTrafikplan2016oneinitiativeisforallbusestobecomefossilfreeby2030(Movia,2016).Onepartoftheplanisastrategicnetworkofbuseswhichcontributetofeedingpassengersintotherailroadnetwork.ThestrategicnetworkthereforeneedstobeadjustedwheninvestmentsaremadeinrailwaycorridorslikethenewmetroininnerCopenhagen,inordertospreadoutthevalueofinvestmentstoabroadergeographicareabyusingthebussesasfeederstothemetrosystem(seeFigure16).Thisway,theserviceofMoviainasenseranksatthebottominahierarchyofpublictransportmodes,sinceMoviaisdependentonadaptingitsbusestotherailroadnetwork.Inadditiontothestrategicnetwork,Moviaproposesanetworkof+WaycorridorswherebusesrunonsegregatedbuswayswithintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,withafocusonensuringintegrationwiththenewmetro(2019)andlightrail(2023)(Movia,2016).Thestrategicnetworkandthe+WaynetworkindicatethatMoviaactivelyworkstoensureacertainlevelofstrategiccoordinationbetweendifferentmodesofpublictransport.However,onemaysuggestthatthiscoordinationmainlystemsfromthefactthatMoviaisdependentonadaptingtotherailroadnetwork.

Figure16.Busescanbeusedasfeederstothemetrosysteminordertospreadoutvalueofinvestmentsinmetrolinestoabroadergeographicarea. Theprocessofdevelopingtheplanisademocraticprocesswhereallmunicipalitiesandthetworegionsareconsultedandcontributetotheplan,andtheplanisapprovedbytheboardofMovia.Duetothelargenumberofactorsontheownerlevel,aswellasthefactthatthemobilityneedsofthemunicipalitiesvarysignificantlygiventheirdemographicdifferencesthisisnaturallyacomplicatedprocess(Struckmann,2017).IntheGreaterCopenhagenAreafocusisoncentralcorridors,whereastransportservicesarelocatedwherefeasiblewithoutcompromisingbasicmobilityneedsofcitizensinsparselyinhabitedareas(ibid.).ThisisrelatedtothefactthatMoviaseespublictransportasbasicwelfare(ibid.).Furthermore,Moviaisunderconstantpressure

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fromtheownerstodelivercost-effectiveservice(Movia,2016),althoughinrecentyearsthecompanyhassucceededincuttingdownexpenseswhilesimultaneouslymaintainingahighlevelofcustomersatisfaction(Struckmann,2017). Metroselskabetwasestablishedin1993asØrestadsselskabettodevelopthefirstmetroinCopenhagenamongotherthings.In2007,thecompanyevolvedintoitscurrentform.TheboardofMetroselskabetrepresentsitsownersandconsistsofbothpoliticiansandnon-politicians:threemembersareappointedbythestate;threemembersareappointedbytheMunicipalityofCopenhagen;onememberisappointedbytheMunicipalityofFrederiksberg;andtwomembersareappointedbythestaffinMetroselskabet.Generally,operatingthemetroisaloteasierthanoperatingtrainsandbusesasthemetrorunsinaclosedsystemandcannotgetstuckintrafficlikeabus,noriscoordinationwithotherrailwayoperatorsneeded(Schmidt,2017).Themetroisverydependentontheothermodesofpublictransportgiventhatabouthalfofthepassengersareeitherfedintothesystembybus/trainorchangetobus/train(ibid.).TheworkofMetroselskabetisplannedthroughafour-yearbusinessstrategy,whichisproducedbytheboard(ibid.).Basedonthebusinessstrategy,Metroselskabetdevelopsacommercialstrategy,whichalsoneedsapprovalfromtheboard(ibid.).Becauseinvestmentsinmetroarelong-terminvestmentslasting50-100years,Metroselskabetgenerallyappliesamorelong-termperspectivethantheothertwopublictransportcompanies,andasaresultofthattheyhaveactivelyaddressedthefutureofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreathroughitsrecentreportonmegatrends,asmentionedintheproblemanalysis(seep.14). Asevidencedabove,thecompanieshavedifferentpremisesforengaginginthecollaborationofDOTduetodifferencesinpurposes,tasks,organisationalset-ups,anddemographicdelimitations.Thiscauseschallengesintermsofcoordinationasaccountedforinthefollowingsections. Optimisation within single systems Oneofthemainchallengesconcerningthecurrentorganisationalset-upofthecompaniesisthateachcompanyexistsforonemainpurpose:tooptimisetheserviceofferedbytheindividualcompany.Thisisexplicitlyacknowledgedbyseveralinterviewees,includingBirgitE.PetersenfromRegionHovedstaden,PerHomannJespersenfromRUC,andRuneJonJensenfromDOT,however,theintervieweesfromthethreecompanieshaveonlyindirectlyindicatedso,asafewexamplescanhelpshedlighton. Oneexampleisthemanycontroversiesonrevenuesharinginrecentyears.Revenuesharingiscurrentlybasedonverycomplicateddistributionkeysbasedonpassengercounting,asaccountedforbyoneinterviewee:

“Wehavedifferentwaysofcountingpassengers.We[Movia]count,someweightrains,othersdosomethingdifferent.And[thenthereare]conversionfactorsthatyou’dalmostneedtohavetheNobelprizeineconomytobeabletounderstand.Itisheavy,itisburdening,anditisnotbasedontrust.”

(Struckmann,2017)

Moresimplemodelsforrevenuesharingthatarebasedontrustcouldpotentiallysolvesomeoftheseissues.Inthisregard,thecomplicateddistributionkeysandconversionfactorsseemtoactasblackboxesthatarenotquestionedeventhoughtheygovernboththeinternalrelationsofthecompanies,andhowtheyacttowardseachother.ThecontroversybecameveryexplicitwhenDSBandMetroselskabettooklegalactioninanarbitrationcaseagainstMoviain2008.ThearbitrationcaseconcernedachangedprocedureinthepassengercountingsofMoviawhichledtochangesinrevenuesharing(KøbenhavnsKommune,2015).Thecasewasfollowedbyseveralothercasesandwasonlysettledin2015whenthecourtofarbitrationdeterminedaduecompensationofDKK161.4milliontobepaidbyMoviatoDSBandMetroselskabet(ibid.).However,despitethecase,thedisputesoverpassengercountingscontinue.Casesliketheseareratherdamagingtothecollaborationbetweenthecompanies,asaccountedforbyoneinterviewee:

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“(...)theydon’twanttogiveeachotheranything(...).Thetransportcompaniesneedtocollaborate,andthentheytakeeachothertocourttogetmoneyoutofticketrevenues.”

(Petersen,2017)TheimplementationofRejsekortetisanotherexampleofhowcontroversiesbetweenactorshaveledtoalengthyandverycomplicatedprocess.Accordingtooneinterviewee,simplificationofmodels,systemsandprocedurescouldhaveremediedsomeofthecontroversies:

(...)SimplificationofthecurrentsystemimpliesthatDorte,HenrikandFlemming[theCEO’softhethreecompanies]approveofsuchasimplification.Anditishardtomakesuchathinghappenwithoutsomeonesuffering.YoucanuseRejsekortetasanexamplewherethesetypesofcollaborationscannotdeliversimplificationsatall.Itwasformulatedasaprojecttoletthepricedependonthedistancetravelledandnotonthezones(...).WhenRejsekortetwasimplemented,youendedupmakinganalmost1:1reproductionoftheinmanywayspoorzoningsystemthatwehadatthetime.”

(Jespersen,2017) Itseemsthateventhoughthereisanintentiontosimplifythecomplicateddisagreementsbetweenthecompanies,thecompaniesaretooconcernedwiththeirownbusinesstobeabletoseethebiggerpicture,andallgoodintentionsgetlostinthesecomplexprocesses. Lack of incentives for long-term holistic planning Allthesecontroversiesrelatedtotheeconomicprofitofeachcompanyshowsalackofincentivesforholisticplanningacrossthecompanies.Adilemmacanthusbeidentifiedinthecurrentorganisationalset-upinthesensethatthethreecompaniesaretakingpassengersfromeachother,ratherthanincreasingtotalpassengernumbersintheoverallsystem,whichisexplicitlyformulatedinthedocumentonpotentialreorganisationconductedbyPerHomannJespersenandthreeotherexpertsinthefield:

“[Itis]atacticalgame,wherethenegotiationsbetweenthetransportcompaniesprimarilyconcernhowtogetasliceasbigaspossibleofthecommoncake,ratherthanworkingouthowthey,together,canmakeanevenbiggercake,whichmorecustomerswillbuyandwhichcanincreasetherevenuebase.”

(Jespersenetal.,2017,p.6) ThisviewissupportedbytheintervieweeinRegionHovedstaden:

“Thesearethedilemmasofthewayinwhichitisorganised.Youtakecustomersfromeachother,right.Youonlycountwithinyourownsystem.Therearealotofthingsthatreallydon’tmakeanysense.”

(Petersen,2017) Eventhoughthecompaniesdelivergoodresultsindividually,theoverallpictureisoftenforgotten(Jespersenetal.,2017).Thecompaniesseemtobemoreconcernedwithcontroversieshereandnow,ratherthansecuringtheircommoninterestsonthelongerterminordertoimprovethepublictransportsystemasawhole.Nocommonstrategyacrosspublictransportmodesexists,andneitherdoesanyoneaddresstheconnectionbetweenprivateandpublictransportmodesatastrategiclevel(ibid.).

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Akeyconcern,whichishighlightedbyseveralinterviewees,isthelackofcomprehensiveunderstandingofmobilitypatterns,asdataonlyexistwithinthesinglesystemswhereasnoneexistsonthepublictransportsystemasawhole(Petersen,2017;Jespersen,2017).CommondataisavailablethroughRejsekortetbutthecompaniesarenotwillingtosharedatabetweeneachother(Petersen,2017).Oneintervieweementionsthatthisresistanceamongthecompaniestosharedataderivesfromeconomicinterests:

“(...)theonlycountingsthatthey[thethreecompanies]makeistoseehowbigapieceofthecake,theeconomiccake,thattheyshouldhaveinrelationtotheticketrevenues.”

(Petersen,2017)

Themainproblemthereforeseemstobethelackofwillingnesstosharedataacrossthecompanies,whichmightbebecausemoreexactdatacanpotentiallychangethecurrentmodelsforrevenuesharing.Theintervieweefurtherstressesthataslongasthecompaniesarenotwillingtosharedataitwillbeimpossibletoobtainanadequateunderstandingofthecommuterpatterns,whichisnecessarytoensureafullyintegratedpublictransportsystem(ibid.). Inorderforholisticplanningacrossthecompaniestoimprove,therewouldneedtobeincentivesforthecompaniestodoso.However,theachievementsofDOTarecurrentlydependentontheprioritiesoftheindividualcompaniesratherthanonholisticconsiderationsonthefutureroleofpublictransport.SinceDOTisdependentonthecompaniesreachingconsensusthereisariskthatthecollaborationwillbelimitedtothelowestcommondenominator(ibid.).Thecompaniesdonothaveeithertheresources,competenciesortheinstitutionalcapacitytofacilitatecoordinationduethecurrentorganisationalset-up,whichhindersholisticplanning.WiththeprocessespriortotheestablishmentofDOTinmind,itappearsthattheformationofDOTandthetasksitismeanttosolvearebasedontop-downpoliticalpressurethroughtheLawontransportcompanies,ratherthanonaninstitutionaldesignprovidingrealincentivesforcollaboration.Forholisticplanningtoimprove,thereseemstobeaneedtoprovideincentiveseitherthroughtop-downpoliticalenforcementorbychangingtheinstitutionaldesignofthecompanies.Suchanimprovedinstitutionaldesignwouldgivegreaterincentivesforcoordinationintermsofaddingresources,competencies,andinstitutionalcapacitytocollaborateacrosscompaniesonaspectsrelatedtolong-termholisticplanning. Different ambitions for DOT Despitetheobservedsatisfactionwiththerecentlyadopted2020strategyacrossthethreecompanies,throughtheinterviews,wehaveidentifieddifferentambitionsonthecollaborationinDOT.Generally,MoviaandMetroselskabetaremorepositivetowardsDOTthanDSB,asexplicitlyaccountedforbytheintervieweeinMovia:

“OurambitionsonwhatDOTshouldbehavebeenhigherthanforexampletheambitionsofDSB.Thatisnotasecretassuch.”

(Struckmann,2017)However,MoviaunderlineshowDSBisincreasinglymovinginthesamedirectionastheothercompanies(ibid.).Yetthereseemstobelimitedalignmentonthelevelofambition.Themaincontroversyhereseemstoberelatedtothedifferentgeographicaldelimitations.Asanationalcompany,DSBneedstobalancenationalandregionalcustomerfacilitieswhichcomplicatesthecoordinationtaskswithinDOT(Kaspersen,2017).ThisleadstoconflictswhencustomerrelatedinitiativesthatdifferorcontravenewithsimilarservicesofferedbyDSBatanationallevelaretobeimplementedwithinthegeographicalareaofDOT(ibid.).ThisperspectiveissupportedbytheintervieweeinRegionHovedstaden:

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“OnecansaythatDSBseesitselfasthisbignationalcompany.Andtheyfinditabitdifficulttoseewhytheyshouldinvolvethemselvesinsomethingmoreregionalorlocal.Becausetheysaythattheyareownedbythestate,youknow,itistheMinister[thatDSBisownedby].Thatiskindoftheirattitude:weareourselves,werunourownthing.”

(Petersen,2017) Furthermore,withthepoliticalagreementfrom2015statingthattheroleofDSBcanpotentiallychangebeyond2025,thecompanyisexposedtoageneralthreatofreorganisationinwhichtheyarenotinterested,accordingtoLarsKaspersen.Asoneexampleofthedownsideofreorganisation,LarsKaspersenmentionshowtheformerseparationofS-trainsfromDSBintoHTledtomanyconflictsandwasnotasensiblesolution(ibid.). ThegeographicaldelimitationisnotachallengeforMovia,sinceDOTcoversthesamegeographicalareaasMovia.MoviawantstoexpandthecollaborationofDOT“bothindepthasinwidth”(Struckmann,2017)andisveryinterestedinimprovingcoherenceacrossthedifferentmodesofpublictransport.WesuggestthatthisviewstemsfromthefactthattheserviceMoviaprovidesneedsadaptingtotheothermodesoftransport,andthereforeMoviaistoalargedegreealreadydependentontheothercompanies.Generally,itishighlightedbytheintervieweeinMoviathatthereisagrowingunderstandingoftheinterdependencyacrossthecompaniesandthatestablishingsuchacollaborationtakestime(ibid.). ThisviewonDOTissupportedbyMetroselskabetwhoalsohasagreatinterestinimprovingtheexistingcollaboration,ashalfofthepassengersofthemetroarefedintothemetrobybusandtrain.Metroselskabetisthereforeinterestedina“strongerorganisation,whichcanachievemore”(Schmidt,2017),however,theintervieweehighlightsthatDOTshouldonlyundertakeoperationaltasksandnotoverallvisioninganddevelopmentwhichinsteadshouldbetakenonbytheplanningauthorities(ibid.). EventhoughthecompanieshavedifferentambitionsforthecollaborationinDOT,theyhavesucceededinreachingagreementonthestrategytowards2020which,byallthree,isseenasabigstepintherightdirection.However,thedifferenceinambitionsiscertainlyagreatchallengeinorderforDOTtoadoptamorelong-termvisioninthefuture.

Limited coordination of long-term investments Anotheridentifiedchallengeisthecurrentlackofcoordinationofinvestments.Eachcompanythushasitsownvisionwhichdoesnotnecessarilyaccordwiththatoftheothercompanies,sincetheyneitherareforcednormotivatedtocollaborateonsuchtasks.However,somecoordinationcanbeidentifiedinthesensethattheindividualvisionstakefuturepublictransportinvestmentsintoaccount–examplesofthisarethestrategicnetwork,andthenetworkof+WaycorridorsprovidedbyMoviawherefutureinvestmentsinrailroadaretakenintoaccount. Anexampleofthelackofcoordinationofinvestments,isthecommonpassengerinformationsystemcreatedinthecontextofDOT,whichlacksanoverallroll-outplanandisonlyimplementedgraduallyforeachstationandbusstopasfundingbecomesavailable(Jespersen,2017).Thefactthatevensuchrathershort-terminvestmentshappenadhocshowshowdifficultitisforthepublictransportcompaniestocoordinateinvestments. Intermsofthelackofcoordinationofmorelong-terminvestments,theintervieweeinRegionHovedstadenbothpointstowardsagenerallackofoverviewofinvestmentsandespeciallyhighlightsthelackofappointingcentralhubswithinthesystem(Petersen,2017).Theregionbelievesthatdoingsocancontributetocreatingastrongerpublictransportsystemandcounteractcongestion(ibid.).RegionHovedstadenisthusinterestedinexpandingDOTtoincludesuchstrategicconsiderationsasaccountedforinthesecondreportproducedbytheconsultingfirmStruensee&Co:

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“Inthelongterm,DOTcanbeaplatformfordevelopmentofastrategicplanfortransportinGreaterCopenhagen,whichwillmakeiteasiertointegratehousingandurbandevelopmentplanswithpublictransport.”

(Struensee&Co,2016,p.44) Summary: The potential for a long-term vision across public transport companies Wehaveidentifiedandanalysedfourkeychallengesofcoordinationintheaboveaspartoftheanswertothesub-questionoftheproblemformulationconcerningthecurrentchallengesofcoordination:focusonoptimisationwithineachcompanyratherthanthepublictransportsystemasawhole;lackofincentivesforlong-termholisticplanningacrossthecompanies;differentambitionsforthecollaborationinDOT;andlimitedcoordinationoflong-terminvestmentsbetweenthecompanies.Besidesidentifyingandanalysingthesechallenges,thesub-questionalsoincludesinvestigatingthedegreetowhichthecurrentcollaborationallowsforthecreationofalong-termvisionatastrategiclevel. Duetofundamentaldifferencesintheinstitutionaldesignofthecompaniesregardingdifferentpurposes,geographicaldelimitations,tasks,owners,andorganisationalset-up,theybothcurrentlyandhistoricallyonlycollaboratewhenforcedtodoso.HadthecoordinationofcustomerrelatedactivitiescurrentlyundertakeninDOTnotbeenforcedthroughbylaw,webelieveitisveryunlikelythatthiscoordinationwouldhavetakenplaceduetothemanycontroversiesbetweenthecompanies.Therearesimplynoincentivesforholisticplanning,andsinceDOTisestablishedtoundertakealimitednumberoftaskswhicharenotrelatedtovisioningatamorestrategiclevel,thecurrentcollaborationdoesnotcontaineithertheagencynorthecompetenciestodoso.Indeed,allthreecompanieshighlightthatinorderforDOTtobecometheplatformfordevelopmentofalong-termvisionacrossthepublictransportsystem,thecollaborationshouldbegivenmoredecision-makingpower.Ontheotherhand,intervieweesinthecompanieshighlightthatcurrentlytheyarenotinterestedinsurrenderingautonomytoDOT.Thisconstitutesthekeycontroversyinrelationtothelackofcoordination.Duetothis,thecurrentcollaborationonlyallowsforcreationofalong-termvisionacrossthepublictransportcompaniestoaverylimiteddegree,ifatall.Asaresult,itwillalsobeacentralpartofthefollowinganalysisonthepotentialofbackcastingtocontributetothecreationofacommonlong-termvisiontosuggestpotentialsolutionstothiscontroversyandtherebyimprovecoordinationamongthetransportcompanies.

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Analysis on backcasting as an approach to create a long-term vision and improve coordination Theaimofthisanalysisistoinvestigatetheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrosspublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaandtherebycontributetosolvingthecoordinationchallengesidentifiedinthefirstanalysis.Theanalysisisbuiltaroundanexampleofabackcastingscenariocreatedwithdatafromourinterviewsanddocumentanalysis.Asaccountedforinthemethodologicalframework(seep.27),thebackcastingscenariohasbeenpresentedtokeyactorsinasecondroundofinterviews(seeappendixA1)withthepurposeofassessingtheapplicabilityofbackcasting. First,thebackgroundofthebackcastingscenariowillbepresented.Thisisfollowedbyapresentationanddiscussionoftheoverallvision,includingmorespecificthemesaspartofthevision.Potentialmeasureswithinonethemewillthenbepresentedonebyone,withamainfocusonidentifyingandanalysingthenecessaryactorconfigurationsthroughtheperspectivesofActor-NetworkTheory,inordertosuggestbywhomthemeasurecanbeimplementedandhowpotentialcontroversiescanberemedied.Inputsfromintervieweeswillbeincludedalongthewayandformthebasisfordiscussingspecificelementsofthescenario,includingwhetherornottheymightbeputintopractice.Inthisway,thisexampleofabackcastingscenariowillserveasabasisforafinalsummaryonhowbackcastingasanapproachcanservetocreatealong-termvisionandimprovecoordinationamongthepublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.

Background for backcasting scenario Toprovidethebestpossiblebasisfordiscussinghowbackcastingcanserveasanapproachtocreatealong-termvision,ithasbeenofkeyimportancetomakeourbackcastingscenariorelevanttokeyactorsinvolvedinfuturedevelopmentofthepublictransportsector.Therefore,thescenariotakespointofdepartureinthecurrentcoordinationchallengesidentifiedinthefirstanalysisaswellasmoregeneralfuturechallengesforthetransportsector,asindicatedbytheinterviewees.Thescenariohasalsobeeninformedbyothernormativescenarios,andtherecentstudyonthefutureroleofpublictransportsectorintheGreaterCopenhagenAreabyMetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane(2017)wasparticularlyinspiringtous. Inrelationtothis,allintervieweesinthethreecompaniesmentiondriverlesscarsasoneofthemainfuturechallenges(Schmidt,2017;Kaspersen,2017;Rasmussen,2017).Morespecificallytheyareconcernedwiththeeffectofdriverlesscarsonpublictransportdemand,aswellastheriskofseverecongestionissuesifdriverlessprivatecaruseisnotregulatedorheavilyrestricted(ibid.).Nevertheless,oneintervieweeseesthedevelopmentofdriverlesstechnologiesasagreatpotentialforthepublictransportsector,undertheconditionthatthetechnologywouldbeintegratedwithexistingmodesoftransportsuchasdriverlessbussesordriverlesssharedcars(Rasmussen,2017). Furthermore,thereseemstobeageneralconsensusamongthecompanies,thatifpublictransportistocompetewithprivatecars,itisessentialtoestablishapublictransportsystemwhichcanensurereliable,quick,andcontinuousdoortodoortrips(Struckmann,2017;Kaspersen,2017).Toachievethis,theintervieweespresentdifferentviewpointsontheneededlevelofcoordinationbetweenthetransportcompanies,includingthefutureareasofresponsibilityofDOT,asaccountedforinthefirstanalysis.Inthisregard,RegionHovedstadenhighlightstheneedforincreasedcoordinationandcollaborationbetweenthecompanieswithinDOTbystrengtheningtheorganisationalset-upandbyexpandingitsareasofresponsibilitytoincludemorestrategicplanningtasks(Petersen,2017). Inthefirstanalysis,wehaveidentifiedagenerallackofaddressingthefutureofpublictransportonthelongterm.Ifthepublictransportsectoristorespondtosomeoftheidentifiedfuturechallenges,suchproactivediscussionsacrossallthreecompaniesmustbeinitiatedcollectivelyandaddressedbyconcreteactions.Thebackcastingscenariowehavedevelopedthereforesuggestsanumberofconcretemeasuresfor

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addressingfuturechallenges.TheideaisthatDOT,throughafullbackcastingstudy,couldpotentiallydevelopasimilarnormativevisionandactivelyworktowardsitthroughimplementingthemeasuresthatwillbeidentifiedthroughsuchastudy. Overall vision of the backcasting scenario Ourpointofdepartureforthevisionhasbeentodescribeasituationwherepublictransportisasstrongaspossible.Weperceivethevisionasdesirablebothfromasustainabilityperspectiveaswellasfromtheperspectiveofthethreetransportcompanies,asitisintheirinteresttomaintainandpotentiallyincreasetheirmarketsharesbyprovidingafavourablealternativetoprivatecars.Inthisregard,thekeyfocusistoensurethathighlevelsofmobilityareofferedbymeansofgreatflexibilityandstrongintegrationbetweendifferentmodesoftransport.Furthermore,thevisionaddressestheexpecteddevelopmentofdriverlesstechnologiesandattemptstoturnitintoanadvantage.Lastly,itisseenasapreconditionthatbothusersandthethreepublictransportcompaniesperceivethepublictransportsystemasonesystem,inwhichthecompaniesrelyoneachothertoprovidethebestpossibleservice.Thevisionrepresentingthisdesirablefuture,whichwehavedevelopedpriortothesecondroundofinterviews,ispresentedinFigure17.

Figure17.Overallvision(asof4thofMay2017)aspartofthebackcastingscenario,whichwaspresentedforkeyactorsinthesecondroundofinterviews.

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Whenpresentedwiththevision,alltheintervieweeswerepositivetowardsitsoverallobjectives,whichshowsacertainlevelofagreementbetweenactors.However,theyallpointtodifferentchallengesofthevision,asaccountedforinthefollowing. Firstofall,allthreeintervieweestookacriticalstanceonthequestionofwhoshouldadoptsuchavision(Petersen,2017;Jensen,2017;Struckmann,2017).TheyallbelievethevisionshouldbeadoptedatanationalpoliticallevelratherthaninDOT,asitcontainsmanyelementsthatconcernprocessesreachingbeyondwhatDOTbothcurrentlyandpotentiallyinthefuturecancontrol,e.g.nationalregulationsuchastheFingerplan,aswellasrestrictiveregulationofprivatecars.Thisisexpressedbyoneinterviewee:

“Inrelationtothevision,thedecision-makingpowerismissing.Whoshoulddecidethisthing?Anduntilyoudefinethat,itisdifficult[torealisethevision].(...)InavisionlikethisIthinkthatyoushouldinclude(...)whohasdecidedthatitshouldbewell-functioningandafavourablealternativetoprivatecars.Thatcouldbeaddressed:thatsomeonehasdecideditandthereforeithastobecarriedout.”

(Petersen,2017)Inrelationtothis,inthesecondroundofinterviews,allintervieweessuggestthatsuchavisionshouldbedeterminedatthenationalpoliticallevel,i.e.bytheMinistryofTransport,asitconcernsnationalpoliciesandregulation(Petersen,2017,Struckmann,2017,Jensen,2017).Thisiscritical,sincethereiscurrentlyalackofnationalpoliticalinterestinpublictransport,ashighlightedintheproblemanalysis(seep.8)andbyseveralinterviewees(Petersen,2017;Struckmann,2017),anditisthereforeunlikelythatsuchavisionwouldbeadoptedunderthecurrentpoliticalsituation.TheintervieweesstillagreethatDOTcouldpotentiallyadoptelementsofthevision–butforthistohappen,financeisneededforthesenewtasks,asaccountedforbyoneinterviewee:

“Decision-makingpowerandfinanceareinterconnected.Andthetransportcompanieshavetobegoodatmanagingbuses,trains,andmetro(...)anddeliveringthebestpossibleservicetowardscustomers.Createthebestpossibleservice(...)fortheavailablemoney.Andthiswouldbesomethingnew!”

(Jensen,2017)

Tosumup,inorderforDOTtoadaptelementsofthevision,itbothneedsincreaseddecision-makingpower,whichisinlinewiththeresultsofthefirstanalysisonp.46,butitalsoneedsincreasedfinance.Thediscussiononwhocouldadoptavisionliketheonesuggestedbyuswillbefurtherelaboratedintheconclusiononp.69. OneintervieweearguesthatmanyelementsofthevisioniswhatDOTisalreadystrivingforintermsofimprovingintegrationbetweenpublictransportmodes(Jensen,2017).SuchaviewpointshowsthatDOTissomehowsupportiveofthevision,butitalsoshowsalackofacknowledgementamongthecompaniesoftheneedtoactivelyaddresscoordinationchallengesandthefutureroleofthetransportsector.TheintervieweearguesthatDOTisalreadyaddressingtheseissues(ibid.)whichhowever,isnotthecaseaccordingtothefirstanalysisofthisthesis,andbasedonthiswesuggestthattheactorswithinDOTaregenerallytoooptimisticaboutthecurrentcollaborationandtherolethatDOTisplayinginaddressingthechallengesofcoordination. Asaccountedforinthemethodologicalframework(seep.27)thebackcastingscenariodoesnotincludeanoverallquantitativegoal,however,oneintervieweepointedtotheneedformoreconcretegoals:

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“Youdon’tnecessarilyhavetoputitintonumbersorpercentagepoints.Butmaybeitcouldbemoreconcreteinthesensethat(...)publictransportshouldremedyagreaterpartofthecongestion(...)thatit[publictransport]shouldplayabiggerrole.”

(Petersen,2017) Incontrasttothis,wefinditlikelythatsettingamoreoverallquantitativegoalcanhinderthediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransportandtherefore,ifafullbackcastingstudyweredevelopedatalaterstage,wesuggestthatsuchgeneraldiscussionstakeplacebeforesettingaquantitativegoal.Thatoneintervieweeexplicitlyrequestsamoreoverallgoalshould,however,betakenintoaccountinsuchaprocess. Themes as part of the vision Aspartoftheoverallvisionweidentifyfourthemeswhichcancontributetosettingadirectionforputtingthevisionintoeffect:

A. MobilityasaService:integratepublictransportwithothermodesoftransportlikesharedcarsandcitybikesthroughawell-developedMaaSsystem

B. Technologicaldevelopment:makeallpublictransportmodesfreeoffossilfuelsC. Spatialplanning:integratepublictransportinvestmentswithurbandevelopmentD. Infrastructureinvestments:expandthepublictransportsystemwithnewcorridors

Thesethemeswereallidentifiedanddescribedpriortothesecondroundofinterviews.Morethemescouldpotentiallybedeveloped,butweperceivethesefourthemesasthemostessentialinrelationtothesuggestedvision.Asasupplementtothese,oneintervieweesuggestedathemeondataandknowledge,assheseesastrongerknowledgebaseasaprerequisiteforstrategicplanningacrosstransportmodes:

“Whatweneedisgreaterknowledgeaboutthebehaviourofcustomers.Itisdifficulttoplananythingsignificantifwedon’thaveknowledgeanddataondoortodoortransport.”

(Petersen,2017) Theneedformoredataonmobilitypatternsisalsohighlightedinthefirstanalysisinrelationtothelackofincentivesforholisticplanning(seep.43),andweseeitasanappropriatethemethatcansupporttherealisationofthevisionandtherebycontributetosolvingchallengesofcoordination. Allintervieweesinthefirstroundoffirstinterviewshavepointedtowardstheneedforensuringreliable,quickandcontinuousdoor-to-doortrips,whichisalsothemainobjectiveofDOTaccordingtothe2020strategy(DOT,2017).Furthermore,severalintervieweeshavementionedthepotentialforincreasingintegrationofpublictransportmodesandothermodesoftransport(Rasmussen,2017;Kaspersen,2017;Jespersen,2017).Onethesegrounds,wechoosethemeA,MobilityasaService,astheonethemeonwhichtoperformbackcasting,includingdescribingthepathwayforitsrealisationinmoredetail.Thisisundertakenthroughidentificationandthoroughdescriptionofthemainmeasuresneededtorealisethethemeinthefollowingsections.Theremainingthemescouldlikewisehavebeendescribedinmoredetail,butwehavenotdeemeditnecessarysincethepurposeismerelytotestbackcastingasamethodtoencourageproactivediscussions,developvisionsandtherebyimprovecoordination,andnottoundertakeafullbackcastingstudy.

Measures to realise theme A. Mobility as a Service Inthissectionweidentifyninemeasures(seeFigure18)neededtorealisethemeA,MobilityasaService,whichwillbepresentedandanalysedinthefollowing.Themeasureswereallidentifiedanddescribedpriortothesecondroundofinterviews.Moremeasurescouldpotentiallybedeveloped,butweperceivethesenine

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asthemostessentialinrelationtothetheme.Furthermore,eachmeasurecouldpossiblybedescribedinmoredetailandseparatedintoanumberofindividualmeasures. Themeasureshaveprimarilybeenidentifiedbasedonthechallengesofcoordinationdescribedinthefirstanalysis,aswellasonkeypointshighlightedbytheintervieweesduringthefirstroundofinterviews.WehavealsomadesurethatallmeasuresimplyprocessesthatDOThasafairchanceofinfluencing.First,thecontentandpurposeofthemeasurewillbedescribedfollowedbyananalysis–throughtheperspectivesofANT–ofthenecessaryactorconfigurationsforrealisationofthemeasure,basedoninputsfromintervieweesinthesecondroundofinterviews.Potentialcontroversiesarethenhighlightedandwherepossiblewesuggesthowthesecanberemedied. ItshouldbenotedthatsomemeasuresaremoredirectlyconcernedwithestablishingMaaSsolutions,whereasothersaregeneralmeasuresthatwillcontributetorealisingallthemesofthevision.However,thesearealsoincludedinordertorealisethemeA.AsseeninFigure18,somemeasuresareinterconnectedandformthebasisofthefollowingmeasures,whereasothermeasuresaremorelikelytobecomeimplementedinisolation.Wehavenotprovideddetailonwhenexactlyeachmeasureistobeimplemented,thusFigure18merelyrepresentsconsiderationsonwheneachmeasureshouldbeimplementedinrelationtoothermeasures.Furthermore,sincetheimplementationofindividualmeasuresislikelytostretchoverseveralyears,themeasureswillnotnecessarilybeimplementedonebyone,butrathersimultaneously.

Figure18.Overview(asof4thofMay2017)ofallninemeasuresthatwesuggestarerequiredtorealisethemeA.MobilityasaService.

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Expansion of Rejseplanen Contentandpurpose

ThefocusareaofthismeasureisthewebpageandappRejseplanen–anonlineitineraryservicewherecustomerscanacquiredetailedinformationontheirpublictransporttripoptions.ThemeasureentailsanexpansionofthefunctionalitiesofRejseplanentoincludeitinerariesandbookingpossibilitiesofadditionalmobilityservicessuchassharedcars,citybikes,car-poolingservicesandtaxis.Basedonthesuggestionbyoneinterviewee,themeasurealsoinvolvesmakingRejseplanenmoredynamicbyimprovingrealtimeinformationincludinginformationonwhenunforeseenincidentssuchassystemfailuresandaccidentsareexpectedtobesolved(Jespersen,2017). RejseplanenisanappropriateplatformonwhichtooffertheseservicesasitisthemostpopularpublicinternetserviceinDenmarkwithmorethan30millionhitspermonth(Rejseplanen,n.d.,a).Thereby,itactsasanimportantinformationchannelbetweenpublictransportcompaniesandusersofpublictransport.Additionally,oneintervieweementionsthatagreatpartofcurrentcoordinationbetweenthecompaniesderivesfromtheworkonRejseplanen(Rasmussen,2017),anditisthereforenaturaltobuilduponthisplatformwhenintegratingnewmodesoftransport. ThepurposeofthemeasureistoensureanalternativetoprivatecarswhenpublictransportationisinsufficientbyexpandingRejseplanenconcurrentlywiththedevelopmentofMaaS.AnexpansionofRejseplanenshouldbeseenasthefirststeptowardsintegrationofothermodesoftransportintothepublictransportsystemaspartofMaaS,whichwillbefurtheraccountedforonpp.61-65. AsimilarsolutionhasbeeninitiatedbyNordjyllandsTrafikselskab(NT)–theequivalenttoMoviainRegionNordjylland.NThasestablishedapublic-privatepartnershipwiththreemunicipalitiesandtheDanishcarpoolingserviceGoMore.Aspartofthiscollaboration,apilotprojectnamedNT+GoMorewasinitiatedinMarch2017where13carpoolingstops,servingaspick-uppointsforGoMorecustomers,weredesignatedclosetokeypublictransportnodeslikestationsandmajorbusstopsbasedonstrategicconsiderations(NT,n.d.).Currently,thebookingsystemanditineraryservicesarefacilitatedthroughtheGoMoreapp,buttheplanistointegrateGoMoreinRejseplanenforNorthernJutlandbytheendof2017(ibid.).ThelattersuggeststhatasimilarsolutionispossiblewithinthegeographicaldelimitationofDOT. Controversiesandconfigurationofactors

ThefirststepintheprocessofexpandingRejseplanen,istoestablishacollaborationbetweenthethreepublictransportcompaniesandRejseplanenasitisfromthiscollaborationthattheinclusionofactorsprovidingadditionalmobilityservicesshouldoriginate.ThenecessaryactorconfigurationtoexpandthefunctionalityofRejseplanenisvisualisedinFigure19.WesuggestthatDOTcanactasakeyspokespersoninfacilitatingthisprocess,sinceanexpansionofRejseplanenisacustomerrelatedactivityacrossthecompaniesandthuswithinthecurrentareaofresponsibilityofDOT.Additionally,thethreecompaniesareamongtheownersofRejseplanen(Rejseplanen,n.d.,b),andthereforeitseemsrathersimpleforDOTandthecompaniestoengageRejseplanenintheprocess.Ontheotherhand,thefirstanalysisshowsthatownershipitselfdoesnotnecessarilyeasechangeprocessesandthatsuchprocessesrequirealotofworkfromtheinvolvedactors.Anyhow,inthiscasewesuggestthattheactorswillallhaveastronginterestinsuchacollaboration.Thisissupportedbyoneinterviewee,whomentionsthatRejseplanenandDOTalreadycollaborateondevelopingnewpassengerinformationsystems,whichindicatesthatarelationbetweenthesetwoactorsalreadyexists(Jensen,2017).

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Figure19.PotentialactorconfigurationfortheprocessofexpandingRejseplanentocoverotherservicesthantraditionalpublictransportmodes. Theprivateactorsprovidingmobilityservicesappeartobesimpletoengageintheactorconfiguration,asaninclusionoftheirservicesintoRejseplanenislikelytoincreasetheirmarketshares.Eventhoughtheactorconfigurationshouldberathersimpletoestablish,itinvolvesmanyactorswhomighthaveopposinginterests.Basedonthis,itmightbeapotentialchallengetobalancetheself-interestsoftheinvolvedactorsintheworkofthecollaboration.Additionally,integrationofadditionalmodesoftransportinRejseplanencouldgiverisetotechnicalchallengesregardingintegrationbetweenRejseplanenandtheexistingbookingsystemsofthevariousprivatecompanies.ThesetechnicalchallengescouldincludethepossibilitiestocheckavailabilityandbookthenewtransportmodesthroughRejseplanen.IncludingNTinthecollaborationcanpotentiallyremedysomeoftheseorganisationalandtechnicalchallengesasNTcanprovideknowledgeandexperiencefromtheirpilotprojectwithGoMore. Expansion of DOT Contentandpurpose

ThismeasurefocusesonexpandingtheareasofresponsibilityofDOTtoincludetasksbeyondcustomerrelatedactivities.Thisincludestasksatastrategiclevelwhichcanallowforlong-termholisticconsiderationsinordertoaddressthefuturechallengesofthetransportsectoraswellasthecoordinationchallengesidentifiedinthefirstanalysis.Morespecifically,anexpandedDOTcanservethreemainpurposes:tofacilitatecollaborationonkeyinitiativesandprojectssuchasimplementationofMaaSsolutions;coordinateactivitiesandvisionsacrossthepublictransportcompanies;andserveasamouthpieceforthecompaniestowardsexternalstakeholdersinordertocommunicatecommoninterests.TheexpansionofDOTisseenasaprerequisiteforrealisationofmost,ifnotall,ofthesubsequentmeasures. Inthefirstanalysisofthisthesis,itisapparentthatstrategictaskscannotbesolvedwithinthecurrentorganisationalframeworkofDOT–neitherisitcurrentlypossibletodevelopasharedlong-termvision.Additionally,theboardmembersofDOTarguethatdecisionsonhowtoaddressfuturechallengesaswellasthecreationofalong-termvisionshouldstemfromtheownerleveli.e.theplanningauthorities(Schmidt,2017;Struckmann,2017).Therefore,weperceiveitasnecessarytodirectlyincluderepresentativesfromtheownerlevelofthetransportcompaniesintheboardofDOT.Thiscontrastswiththecurrentsituationwherethedirectorsofcustomerrelationshavebeenappointedasboardmembers.Thepurposeofthisexpansionoftheboardistoincreasethedecision-makingpowerofDOTbyprovidingpoliticalmandateaswellasthecompetenciestostrategicallyaddressthefuturechallengesofthetransportsector.TheneedforpoliticalmandateissupportedbytheintervieweeinRegionHovedstaden,whoarguesthatanexpandedDOTincludingrepresentativesfromtheownersisaprerequisiteforthecreationofalong-termvision(Petersen,2017).ShearguesthatDOTholdsthepotentialtobecomeanorganisationinwhichdecisionsconcerningallthetransport

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companiesaretakenincludingtaskssuchasstrategicplanningandacoordinatedinvestmentplan,especiallyifDOTisledbyastrongboardrepresentingbothpoliticalandeconomicinterests(ibid.). WesuggestanexpansionoftheexistingDOTratherthanamoreradicalorganisationalchangesincetwointervieweesbelievethatmergingthethreecompaniesintoonewouldnotonlybeundesirable,butalsoineffectiveforthepublictransportsystem(Struckmann,2017;Kaspersen,2017).Regardingtheactualsetupoftheboard,memberscouldeventuallybethoseboardmemberscurrentlyrepresentedintheboardsoftheindividualtransportcompanies.Accordingtooneinterviewee,thechairmanshouldbeanexternalactorwithknowledgeonpublictransportinordertoensureprofessionalambitionsandavoidspecialinterestsfromoneoftheowners/companies(Jespersen,2017).Inrelationtothis,theintervieweereferstoformernegativeexperiencesofincludingpublicservantsandpoliticiansintoboards,andfurtheradvocatesthataprofessionalboardwouldbemorelikelytoensureanimpartialoperationofDOT(ibid.).Incontrasttothis,theintervieweeinRegionHovedstadenarguesthatacombinationofdifferentactorssuchaspoliticians,privateactors,researchersandpublicservantswouldbeappropriateandmentionstheboardofTransportForLondonasasuccessfulexample(Petersen,2017).Sheespeciallystressestheneedforincludingpoliticiansandotheractorswhohavethepowerandagencytoensurefunding(ibid.).Controversiesandactorconfiguration

Basedontheconductedinterviews,thedocumentanalysisandthefirstanalysisofthisthesis,weidentifythreepotentialactorconfigurationsthatcancontributetoarealisationofexpandingthetasksandboardofDOT(seeFigure20):

A. AsthecurrentLawontransportcompaniesdoesnotcontainrestrictionsonhowthetransportcompaniesformallyorganisethemselveswithinDOT(Transport-ogBygningsministeriet,2014),itwouldbepossibleforthecompaniestoalterthecompositionoftheboard.Suchanactorconfigurationreliesoncreatingconsensusamongthecompaniesandtheirrespectiveboards.

B. Thefirstanalysissuggeststhatcollaborationbetweenthecompaniesdidnotdeliveranysignificantresultsuntilthecoordinationwasforcedthroughbythe2014Lawontransportcompanies.Itisthereforesuggestedthatanewlawexpandingthetasksandorganisationalset-upofDOTwouldbenecessary,withthelawactingasanintermediarydefininganewroleofDOT.

C. Anothersimilaroptionentailsthattheownersofthetransportcompanies–themunicipalities,theregions,andthestate–putpressureonthetransportcompaniestoexpandtheboardofDOT.ThiswillrequirethattheplanningauthoritiesrealisetheneedforcollectivelyaddressingcoordinationchallengesandthefutureroleofpublictransportandthatthiscanbeachievedthroughanexpansionofDOT.

Figure20.PotentialactorconfigurationsneededinordertorealiseanexpansionofDOT.

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EventhougheachoftheseactorconfigurationscanleadtothedesiredexpansionofDOT,variouscontroversiesrelatednotonlytothecontentofsuchanexpansionbutalsototheprocessesofconstitutingtheseconfigurationscanbeidentifiedasaccountedforinthefollowing. Firstofall,intervieweeswithinbothMoviaandDOTquestionthelikelihoodofrealisingsuchanexpansionaswellastheactualcontributionoftheexpansion(Jensen,2017:Struckmann,2017).Inrelationtothis,oneintervieweestressesthatcoordinationwithinthegivenframeworkalreadycontainsmanychallengesandopposinginterests,andthattheinclusionofmoreactorswithintheexistingnetworknotnecessarilywouldresultinimprovingcoordination:

“IfitisdifficulttofinancebetweenthethreecompaniesinDOTbecauseownershipisbothmunicipalandnational,thenIdonotdaretothinkabouthowitwouldbeifthestateandthemunicipalitiesshouldbeincludedinthisbigvisiongiventhattheyhaveindividualinterests.Ifyouwanttodosomethinglikethat,thenyouneedanarrowframework.Besidesthat,youneedtobesurethatyouhaveaconcreteplandefiningwhatthisexpansionofthecollaborationentails.Andwecanseehowwealreadyencountermanychallengesinthecurrentset-up.”

(Jensen,2017) Basedonthis,bothintervieweeshighlighttheimportanceofensuringthatadditionalvalueisachievedbeforeanexpansionofDOTisputintoeffect(Jensen,2017:Struckmann,2017).Ratherthandevelopinganoverallvision,theybothsuggestthatitwillbemorelikelyandappropriateforDOTtobecomeastrategicforumwhichcanassemblevisionsandstrategiesfromtheindividualtransportcompanies,andbasedonthiscansuggestcommonrecommendationsonhowtoaddressfuturechallenges(ibid.). Inanycase,theintervieweeinMoviaacknowledgestheneedforaholisticapproachaddressingwhatthefuturepublictransportsectorcouldlooklike,butshealsoarguesthatthereistoomuchfocusontheorganisationalsetupofDOT:

“Whenwe[thepublictransportcompanies]becomeverypreoccupiedwiththestructure[ofpublictransport]andverylittlewiththevision,Ithinkitisapity,becauseitisthevisionthatisinterestingandthefactthatyou[asapublictransportcompany]canseeyourselfandyourcontributioninrelationtothewhole.Andwhenyoubeginperceivingpublictransportasacoherentecosystem,thensomethinghappens.”

(Struckmann,2017)

Inrelationtothis,shearguesthatfocusshouldratherbepointedtowardsdevelopingacommonunderstandingamongthetransportcompanies,thattheyareinherentlyinterconnectedandthatcoordinationofcustomerrelatedactivitiescreatesvalueforbothcustomersandcompanies(ibid.).ThisiscomplementedbytheintervieweeinDSB,whoarguesthatlong-termplanningisaboutcustomerrelatedactivitiesandthatpreviousexperiencesfromtheoperationalcollaborationsinHURindicatethatcollaborationbetweenthecompaniesshouldonlyincludecustomerrelatedactivities(Kaspersen,2017). Additionally,severalintervieweesarguethatthecurrentworkofDOTexemplifiedthroughthe2020strategyisthefirststepintherightdirectionofimprovingcoordinationinthepublictransportsector(Kaspersen,2017;Jensen,2017;Struckmann,2017).Oneintervieweeelaboratesthisfurther:

“IactuallybelievethatDOTisagoodfirststep.Nowwearecollaboratingonsomethingwhichaddsvalueandisdirectlymeasurable.Giveitsomeyearsandseeifitactuallyworks.Seethatthecompaniescancooperateandcreateresults,whichbenefitthecustomers.”

(Jensen,2017)

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Basedontheseconsiderations,itseemsthattheactorswithinthetransportcompaniesandDOTbelievethatanexpansionofthetasksofDOTshouldhappenincrementallyfromwithintheexistingnetworkofDOT.Theyalsosuggestthattherelationbetweenthetransportcompaniesshouldmainlybeconstitutedaroundthebenefitsofcollectivelyaddressingcustomerrelatedactivities(Kaspersen,2017:Jensen,2017).Asaresult,itseemsveryunlikelyforthetransportcompaniestovoluntarilyexpandtheboardandtasksofDOTsincetheydonotacknowledgethebenefitsofsuchanexpansion.Additionally,theyseemtobelievethatthecurrentchallengesofcoordinationcanbesolvedwithintheframeworkofcustomerrelatedactivities.WeperceivethisincrementalchangeprocessofDOTasinsufficient,ifthesuggestedscenarioincludingtheoverallvisionandthespecificmeasuresaretoberealised.Therefore,wesuggestthatinordertoexpandDOT,pressureshouldderiveeitherfromanationalpoliticallevelthroughenforcementofanewlaworthroughpressurefromtheplanningauthorities. Asdescribedinthefirstanalysis,RegionHovedstadeniscurrentlyworkingtocreateconsensusontheneedforimprovedcoordinationandastrongerDOTamongthesameactorsthatfigureinthesuggestedconfigurationsinFigure20.IfRegionHovedstadensucceedsinthisprocessofactivelyengagingmunicipalitiesandtheMinistryofTransport,thiscanbeanimportantsteptowardsanexpansionofDOT. Lastly,severalintervieweesstatethatanexpansionofDOTmightrequirechangesnotonlytotheLawontransportcompaniesbutalsotothelawsregulatingtheobjectivesofMetroselskabetandDSBsincetheseobjectiveswouldchangeshoulde.g.MetroselskabetbeinvolvedininitiativesthatbenefitDSB(Jespersen,2017:Jensen,2017).Thissuggests,thatitwouldbenecessarytoengagetheMinistryofTransportasanactivespokespersonworkingtowardsanexpansionofDOT. Mobility team in DOT develops long-term vision Contentandpurpose

ThismeasurecontainstheappointmentofamobilityteamwithintheframeworkofanexpandedDOT.Thisshouldbeseenasthefirststeptowardsthecreationofanoveralllong-termvisionforthefutureroleofthepublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Theroleofthemobilityteamshouldbetoanalyseandunderstandhowmobilitytrendsandtechnologicalaswellassocietaldevelopmentwillshapethefuture.ThecreationofacommonmobilityteamshouldbeseenincontinuationoftheworkthatbothMoviaandMetroselskabethaveinitiatedonaddressinghowthefuturewillshapetheircompaniesandtheirtransportservices.Duringthelasttwoyears,Moviahashadsixpeopleemployeddedicatedtotheareaofmobilityandfuturetrends(Rasmussen,2017).Metroselskabetislikewiseaddressingmegatrendsandthefutureroleofpublictransportthroughthepreviouslymentionedreport(MetroselskabetandHovedstadensLetbane,2017;Schmidt,2017). Theidealoutcomeoftheworkofthemobilityteamisasharedlong-termstrategicvisionthatdefinesadesirablefutureforthepublictransportcompaniesandappointstheneededinitiativesandinvestmentstoputthevisionintoeffect.Asharedvisioncancreateaframeworkinwhichthecompaniescanworkcollectivelytowardscommonobjectivesandtherebypotentiallymitigateconflictinginterestsinrelationtothechallengesofsub-optimisationdescribedinthefirstanalysis.Suchavisioncanpotentiallybedevelopedthroughabackcastingapproachsimilartotheoneappliedinthisthesis–somethingwhichwillbefurtherdiscussedintheconclusiononp.69. Jespersenetal.(2017)arguethatDOT,inthepresentlegalframework,holdsthepotentialtocreatetheoverallframeworkforstrategicplanningofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreabyproducingalong-termstrategicvision,whereastheactualimplementationwilltakeplaceintheindividualcompanies.Incontrasttothis,wesuggestthatinordertofullyimprovecoordinationsomestrategictasksshouldbeundertakenspecificallybyDOT–somethingthatwillbeelaboratedfurtherinthefollowingmeasureonacoordinatedinvestmentplan.

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Controversiesandactorconfigurations

OntheassumptionthatthepreviousmeasureExpansionofDOThasbeenputintoeffect,DOTcanactasspokespersonintheprocessofappointingamobilityteam.Thisentailsdefiningtheworkingconditionsoftheteam,allocatingfinanceandotherresourcesincludingamandatetodevelopasharedlong-termvision.TheactualeffectofthevisionasanoverallframeworkwillonlybeensuredtotheextentthatthevisionisapprovedandembodiedintotheworkoftheindividualtransportcompaniesasvisualisedinFigure21.Thecontentofthesharedlong-termvisionshouldbereflectedintheplansandstrategiesofeachindividualcompany,inordertoensurethatshort-termsolutions,initiatives,anddailyactionsareinlinewiththeoverallvisionofDOT.Thisalignmentwithexistingvisionsandstrategiesholdsanumberofpotentialcontroversiesasaccountedforinthefollowingparagraphs. Firstofall,thereisapotentialpitfalloftheoverallvisionbeinglessambitiouswhenalignedwithexistingvisions,strategiesandinterestsofthecompanies,sincetheoverallvisionisexpectedtoapplytimehorizonsandmobilityconceptsthatthecompanieshavenottakenintoaccountincurrentvisions.Whenthecompaniesneedtoaccepttheoverallvision,thereisalsoariskthatthelowestdenominatorwillbedecisiveforthelevelofambition.Toaddressthis,inputsfromabroadrangeofexternalactorssuchasuniversities,andbusinessandindustryorganisationscouldbeincludedindevelopmentofthevisioninordertoqualifyandlegitimisethevision.

Figure21.Actorconfigurationofappointingamobilityteamthatproducesalong-termvisionwhichshouldbealignedwiththevisionsoftheindividualcompaniesandviceversa. Anotherkeychallengeofestablishingacommonlong-termvisionisthatitmightrequirechangestothelegislativeframeworkofDOTaccordingtoseveralinterviewees(Jensen,2017;Jespersen,2017).TheseintervieweesalsohighlightthatchangestothelawsregulatingDSBandMetroselskabetmightbenecessaryifthevisionentailsthatthesecompanieshavetoattendtotasksbeyondtheircurrentobjectsclause(ibid.).However,wearguethatiftheexpansionofDOThasbeenrealisedthroughanewLawontransportcompanies,itisbeingreasonabletosuggestthatsuchalegalframeworkwouldallowforDOTtodevelopacommonlong-termvisionatamorestrategiclevel.Incontrasttothis,itissuggestedbyoneintervieweethatchangingthelegalframeworkisacomplicatedprocess,andratherthanproducingacommonvision,DOTcouldinsteadworkasastrategicforum:

“(...)Ibelievetheartofthepossiblewouldbemorerealistic.Thatyouputsomepeopletogetherinsomeforumswhereyousay,‘Thisisourvisionandthisisourvision’(...)andthenyoucangetsomeonetoputittogether.IfthissomeoneisDOT,thenyoucouldmakesomerecommendationsonhowthingsshouldbeinthefuture.”

(Jensen,2017)

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Additionally,theintervieweearguesthateachcompanyhasspecialisedinspecificmodesoftransport,andthatthesecompetenciescouldeventuallybelostiftheresponsibilityofstrategicplanningwasassembledinoneorganisation(Jensen,2017).Wedonotperceivethisasarisk,sincethepurposeofasharedvisionproducedbyDOTisnottohinder,butrathertodrawonthesecompetencies. Similarly,onetheintervieweeinMoviadoesnotbelieveacommonlong-termvisionforpublictransportassuchacrossthecompaniesistherightsolution,butrathersuggeststhatstrategicconsiderationsandidentificationofsynergiesbetweenthecompaniescouldbeamandatorypartoftheplansandstrategiesofeachcompany(Struckmann,2017).Inrelationtothis,shestressesthatMoviaalreadytakessuchconsiderationsintoaccountthroughthestrategicnetworkofbusesthroughwhichintegrationwithothermodesofpublictransportisensured(ibid.).Additionally,shearguesthatevenifDOTmanagestodevelopasharedlong-termvisionforpublictransportassuch,itwillnothaveanyeffectunlessfinanceisearmarkedspecificallyfortherealisationofthevision(ibid.),whichiswhyacoordinatedinvestmentplanisseenasaprerequisiteforrealisinganoverallvisionofDOTaselaboratedinthefollowingsection.

Coordinated investment plan for DOT Contentandpurpose

Asmentionedabove,theimplementationofalong-termvisionishighlydependentontheallocationoffinance.ThereforethismeasureentailsthecreationofacoordinatedinvestmentplanforDOT,whichcanserveasaclarificationofthepresentedvisioncontainingachronologicaloverviewoftheinvestmentsthatneedtobeaccomplishedinordertoputthevisionintoeffect.Theinvestmentplanshouldthusbeproducedsimultaneouslywiththevision. Thedevelopmentofalong-termvisionandacoordinatedinvestmentplanissuggestedasasolutionforthelackofcoordinationoflong-terminvestmentsidentifiedinthefirstanalysis.Likewisethecurrentlackofeconomicincentivesforthecompaniestoadoptaholisticplanningapproachcouldberemediedthroughagreementonacoordinatedinvestmentplaninwhichallthecompanieshavecommittedthemselves.Besidesprovidinganoverviewofinvestments,theinvestmentplanshoulddeterminewhichactorsaretofinanceeachinvestment.SomeinvestmentswillbeappropriateforDOTtocarryout,whereasotherswillbemoreappropriatefortheindividualcompaniestocarryout.DriverlessS-trainswouldforexamplebewithinthedomainofDSBwhereasMoviawouldberesponsiblefordevelopmentofBusRapidTransit(BRT)systems.SuchinvestmentsshouldbecoordinatedthroughDOTandDOTshouldalsocarryoutinvestmentsincollectiveprojectsthatbenefitallcompanies.InrelationtoMaaS,examplesofcollectiveprojectsareimprovementofparkandridefacilitiesatstationsandestablishmentofpublic-privatepartnershipswithcarsharingcompanies.InsuchprojectsDOTcanplayafacilitatingandcoordinatingrolegiventhatDOThasthestrategicoverviewofwhateachprojectshouldcontributetoinrelationtoimprovingtheoverallpublictransportsystem.Controversiesandactorconfigurations

ThemobilityteamwithinDOTcanactasaspokespersoninthedevelopmentoftheinvestmentplan,sincethemobilityteamisalsoresponsibleforcreatingthelong-termvision,whichcreatestheframeworkfortheinvestmentplanasillustratedinFigure22.Asmentionedabove,theroleoftheinvestmentplanisthatthevisionisputintoeffect.Forthistohappen,theinvestmentplanneedtoserveasanintermediarydefiningtheeconomicresponsibilityofthecompaniesandDOTinrelationtotheinitiativesdescribedinthevision.Inproductionoftheinvestmentplan,thecompaniesneedtoreachagreementonhowtofinancecollectiveprojects–somethingwhichwillentailthateachindividualcompanytransfersfundingtoDOT.Asthesenegotiationsonfinanceareaninherentpartoftheestablishmentoftheinvestmentplan,itiscentraltoidentifyandsolvepotentialcontroversiesthatcanblockagreementbetweenthecompanies.Thecoordinatedinvestmentplancanbeseenasasimplificationofanetwork,inwhichdetailednegotiationsonfinancetake

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placeasshowninFigure22.Whenthisnetworkisstudiedindetail,keycontroversiesbetweenactorscanberevealed.

Figure22.Actorconfigurationconcerningproductionofacoordinatedinvestmentplan,includingtheunderlyingnetworkbehindtheinvestmentplan. Currently,collectiveprojectsarefinancedthroughacertainfinancialbasisofdistributionthatdefineseachcompany’sallocationoffundsforeachsingleproject(Jespersen,2017).However,thisisaheavyandcomplicatedmechanismthatcausesmanyconflictsbetweenthecompaniesasdescribedinthefirstanalysis.InsteadofapplyingasimilarbasisofdistributionwhendeterminingthetransferoffundingfromeachcompanytothebudgetofDOT,itissuggestedbyoneintervieweethatthisbudgetcouldbeperceivedasasharedbudgetwheresomeprojectswillbenefitonecompanywhileotherprojectsbenefitothercompanies(ibid.).SuchanallocationoffundstothebudgetofDOTwouldrelymoreontrustandacommonunderstandingamongthetransportcompaniesthatcollaborationbenefitsthemall.Thebenefitsofsimplifyingmodelsoffinanceisalsoacknowledgedbyoneinterviewee(Struckmann,2017).Furthermore,intervieweesfromallthethreecompanieshavearguedthatintegrationandinterdependencybetweenthecompaniesisaninherentpartofthecurrentDOTcollaboration(Schmidt,2017:Kaspersen,2017;Struckmann,2017). Weseetheactant‘simplefinancemodelsbasedontrust’asthemissinglinkwhichthroughitspropertiescanstabilisethoserelationsthatconstitutetheinvestmentplan.Whenstabilised,theunderlyingnetworkbehindtheinvestmentplancanbeinterpretedasablackboxwhereinrelationsbetweenactorsaretakenforgranted.Toreachsuchasituationofagreementeachcompanyneedtoomitsuboptimisation,whichwillcertainlybecomplicatedasdescribedinthefirstanalysis.BasedontheconductedinterviewsbothMoviaandMetroselskabetseemmorewillingtodoso,astheytoalargerdegreethanDSBacknowledgetheinterdependencybetweenthethreecompanies.Asmentionedabove,especiallyMoviarecognisestheneedforimprovingtherelationsandcoordinationbetweenactorsbysimplifyingthefinancemodels. Additionally,someinvestmentswillmostlikelybeofsuchasizethatmunicipal,regionalornationalfundingisneedede.g.driverlessS-trains,upgradesoftrainstationsorfutureinvestmentsinnewpublictransportcorridorslikemetro,railorBRT.Someofthesuggestedprojectsoftheinvestmentplanwillthereforedependonactorswhoseallocationoffundingrelyonpoliticalnegotiations.Forthisreason,theinvestmentplanandthevisionshouldalsobeseenasdocumentsservingtoinformdecisionmakersonthestrategicdirectionandtheneedforinvestmentsinpublictransport.Basedonthis,wesuggestthata

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coordinatedinvestmentplan,whichsetsasharedstrategicdirectionforthepublictransportcompaniescouldmakeiteasiertoattractheavyinvestmentsfromtheauthorities. IfDOTisexpandedandhasdevelopedasharedlong-termvisionaswellasacoordinatedinvestmentplan,wesuggestthatDOThasthedecision-makingpower,theknowledgeandstrategiccompetencies,andtheneededfundingtoinitiateimplementationofMaaSsolutionsasvisualisedinFigure18.Improvingstationsforparkandride;integratingnewtransportmodesintothepublictransportsystemthroughRejsekortet;andtestingdriverlesstechnologiesareallcentraltothemeA.MobilityasaServiceandwillbeelaboratedinthefollowingsections. Improve stations for park and ride Contentandpurpose

Thismeasureentailsexpandingtrainstationswithparkandridefacilitiesalongwithotherservicefacilitiesinordertoaccommodatethecurrentlackofstrategiccoordinationonappointingcentralhubswithinthepublictransportsystemasdescribedonp.45inthefirstanalysis.Thisissupportedbyseveralinterviewees,whoacknowledgeparkandridefacilitiesasanimportantelementinattractingprivatecarcommuterstoreplacepartoftheirtripbypublictransportandtherebyfosteramodalshiftandcontributeinreducingcongestion(Jespersen,2017;Jensen,2017;Rasmussen,2017).Additionally,thepurposeistoaccommodatetheintegrationofnewtransportmodesinordertoensureMaaSbyplacingsharedcarsandcitybikesatstations. Jespersenetal.(2017)suggestthatsupplementingservicefacilitiescouldincludeshopping,parceldeliveryandpick-up,kindergartens,andcarservices.Byincludingtheseservicefacilitiesatstationscommuterscanmeetsomeoftheirbasicneedsinonespotinsteadofhavingtotravelacrossthecitytoshop,pickupchildrenetc.andineffect,totaltripdistancecanpotentiallybereduced.Additionally,servicefacilitiesatstationscanserveasanelementinintegratingurbandevelopmentwithtransportplanning,whichisalsopartoftheoverallvisionasdescribedinFigure17.Controversiesandactorconfigurations

Wesuggestthatitisnecessarytoestablishsomesortof‘stationcollaboration’betweenkeyactorsinordertostrategicallyappointcentralhubsandexpandthesewithparkandridefacilitiesaswellasotherservices.WeidentifyDOT,DSB,Movia,Banedanmark,municipalitiesandotherprivateactorsthatprovideservicefacilitiesaskeyactors(visualisedinFigure23).DSBandMoviaareseenasrelevantactorsduetotheirstronginterestsinensuringconvenientexchangesbetweenbusandtrain–exchangesinwhichBanedanmarkisalsoan“activeplayer”duetoitsresponsibilityofrailwayinfrastructure,accordingtooneinterviewee(Kaspersen,2017).Inclusionofmunicipalitiesinthecollaborationwouldespeciallyberelevantregardingintegrationbetweenurbandevelopmentandtransportplanning.

Figure23.Potentialactorconfigurationfortheprocessofexpandingstationstoincludeparkandridefacilitiesandotherservicesthroughastationcollaboration. WesuggestthatDOTcanactasakeyspokespersoninfacilitatingtheestablishmentofsuchacollaborationasanexpandedDOTwithalong-termvisionwouldmostlikelyhavethegreateststrategicoverviewofwhereto

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locatestationhubs.Jespersenetal.(2017)highlightthattheexistingorganisationoftransportcompaniesisnotgearedtomanagesuchacomplicatedtaskandinsteadsuggestanindependentstationcompany–inspiredbytheSwedishcompanyJernhusen–asapotentialsolution.Jernhusenisanationallyownedcompanythatownsanetworkofrailroad-relatedpropertiesacrossSwedenandisresponsiblefordevelopingandmanagingtheseinordertoensurestrongintegrationbetweentransportmodes(Jernhusen,n.d.). Generally,thecontroversiesofsuchacollaborationseemtolieinhowtoconstituteitandwhichactorstoinclude.ThesecontroversiescouldpotentiallyberemediedifDOTisprovidedwiththedecision-makingpower,competenciesandfinancetocoordinatesuchinitiatives. Akeycontroversyistheeconomicconsiderationsregardingthedistributionofinvestmentsbetweenactorsaswellashowpotentialrevenuesaretobedistributedamongactors.Negotiationslikethesearemeanttobepartoftheinvestmentplan,andthereforeitisdeemedlikelythattheinvolvedactorshaveallocatedfundingforstationexpansionsthroughtheinvestmentplan.Additionally,municipalitiescanprovidefundingiftheybecomepartofthecollaborationduetotheirinterestinurbandevelopmentatandaroundstations. Anothercontroversyistheconflictingviewsrepresentedthroughthesecondroundofinterviews.TheintervieweeinRegionHovedstadenhighlightstheneedforanewstrongcollaboration(Petersen,2017),whereastheintervieweeinDOTbelievesthatexpansionofstationsistoalargedegreealreadytakingplace:

“Well,itissomethingtheydoouttherealready,itisactuallynotthatfarintothefuture.YouaredoingitatKøgeNord,whichtoacertaindegreeisparkandride.”

(Jensen,2017)

KøgeNordisanewstationonthefuturerailwaybetweenRingstedandKøge,whichwillnotonlyhave1,700parkandridespacesbutisalsoacentralspotforurbandevelopmentwhenfullybuiltin2018(KøgeNordStation,n.d.).Bypresentingthisexample,theintervieweeinDOTarguesthatprovidingparkandridefacilitiesissomethingthatwillhappen“byitself”asincrementalchangestothecurrentpublictransportsystemandthatitdoesnotnecessarilyrequireacommonvisionandcoordinatedinvestmentplanofDOT(Jensen,2017).Onthecontrary,theintervieweeinRegionHovedstadenarguesthattherecertainlyisaneedforanoverallstrategicplanwhichcanappointcentralhubs(Petersen,2017).WesuggestthatsuchastrategicplancouldbeadoptedbyDOTincollaborationwiththeaforementionedactorsinordertoensureaholisticapproachacrossthethreecompaniesandtherebyavoidadhocsolutions.However,wedeemitlikelytobedifficulttoreachagreementamongtheinvolvedactorsofthesuggestedcollaborationbasedonthedifferentviewpointsofintervieweesonhowquicklyandwithwhatscaleofeffortparkandrideistobeimplemented. Integration of new transport modes into the public transport system through Rejsekortet as part of MaaS Contentandpurpose

SincethemeasuresrelatedtointegratingtransportmodeslinkedtoMaaS(citybikes,sharedcars,anddriverlesssharedcars)intothepublictransportsystemthroughRejsekortetareinterrelatedandimplysimilarprocessesandactorconfigurations,theywerepresentedtogetherfortheparticipantsinthesecondroundofinterviews.Thesemeasureswillthereforealsobedescribedandanalysedasoneinthefollowingsection. Firstofall,wesuggestthatMaaSshouldnotbeperceivedasanewservicetobeimplementedbynewexternalactors,butshouldratherbuildonexistingplatformssuchasRejsekortetandRejseplanen–somethingwhichissupportedbyoneinterviewee:

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“Theredoesn’tnecessarilyneedtobeanycertaininstitutionalstructurearoundit.WehaveagreatpartofMaaSalready,onecouldsay,viaRejsekortet.ThatthingaboutexpandingRejsekortet,well,maybethatisourMaaSinthefuture.SothatveryinstitutionalideathatMaaSissomethingsomeoneelsecreatesforusandthenwesubscribetoitandsoon–Idon’tnecessarilybelieveinthat.”

(Jespersen,2017) Thepurposeofintegratingcitybikes,sharedcarsandinthefuturedriverlesssharedcars,istoprovideasupplementtomoretraditionalmodesofpublictransportandtherebyimprovemobilityoptionsinordertoensurequick,reliableandcontinuoustripsacrosstheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Anadditionalaimistoencouragecurrentnon-usersofpublictransporttochangemobilitypracticesandtherebyfosteramodalshiftfromprivatetopublictransportationtoaddresscongestionissues,amongothers.Thenewtransportmodescanfeedadditionalpassengersintothepublictransportsystemandcanalsoclosethegapbetweentraditionalpublictransportationservicesandtheusers’destinations.Additionally,theintegrationofsharedcarsmightalsoholdthepotentialtolowercarownershipwhichcanbeacrucialelementinchangingpeople’smobilitypractices(Rasmussen,2017).IfMaaSiscompetitivewithprivatecars–intermsofpriceandflexibility–itcanpostpone,ifnotremove,theneedtobuyacaraccordingtooneinterviewee(ibid.).MaaSisthuskeyinincreasingpublictransportationuseinaccordancewiththeoverallvisioninFigure17. Regardingcitybikes,acitybikesystemrunbythecommercialfoundationBy-ogPendlercykelFondenisatpresentimplementedinthemunicipalitiesofCopenhagenandFrederiksberg–asystemwhichwouldbeappropriatetobuildfurtheruponandonewhichovertimecouldspreadtoallmunicipalitiesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Additionally,anaturallinkbetweenthecitybikesandthepublictransportsystemalreadyexistsasitiscurrentlypossibletoaccesscitybikesthroughRejsekortet–althoughpaymentthroughRejsekortetisnotyetpossible(Bycyklen,n.d.,a).FullintegrationintoRejsekortetwillthusrequirethatpaymentbecomespossible.ThepurposeofthecurrentsysteminCopenhagenandFrederiksbergistoprovideacoherentnetworkwithindenseurbanareas.Incontrasttothis,wesuggestthatcitybikesaspartofMaaSprimarilyshouldfocusonlocatingbikesatkeypublictransportnodesinorderforthebikestoserveasacontributiontotheexistingpublictransportsystem.Itissuggestedbyoneintervieweethatafeasibilitystudycanensurethatbikesareonlylocatedwherefeasibleintermsofmobilitydemand(Jespersen,2017). Citybikesarelikelytobeusedforshorterdistancesorinurbanenvironments,whereasintegrationofsharedcarscanaddressthemobilityneedsofthosecommuterswhosecurrentmobilitydemandcanonlybemetbyprivatecarse.g.peoplelivingoutsidetherangeoffastandreliablepublictransportmodes,peoplewhosedestinationislocatedfarfrompublictransportnodes,orpeoplewhohastoreachseveraldestinationsduringoneday.Bylocatingsharedcarsatkeypublictransportnodesthesecancontributeinsubstitutingprivatecaruse.Alsohere,afeasibilitystudycanshedlightonthelocationsinwhichsharedcarsshouldbeoffered(ibid.). Atalaterstageandwhentechnologicaldevelopmenthasadvanced,driverlesssharedcarscansubstituteconventionalsharedcars.Driverlesstechnologycanincreaseflexibilityandifactivelyaddressedbythepublictransportcompaniesbeawayofturningthetechnologicalinnovationintoanadvantageandtherebyavoidtheriskthatdriverlesstechnologywillonlyincreasetheshareofprivatetransportation(seealsopp.65-67).However,ifthisshouldbeavoideditisacknowledgedthatbothparkingrestrictionsandstrictregulationisneededasaccountedforintheoverallvisionandsupportedbyseveralinterviewees(Struckmann,2017;Jespersen,2017;Petersen,2017). Severalsharedcarsolutionsalreadyexist.AsanexamplethecompanyDriveNowowns400carsthatarealreadyintegratedwithRejsekortet(DriveNow,n.d.).However,wesuggestthatamorestrategicapproachtotheintegrationbetweenpublictransportmodesandothertransportmodesisneeded,sincenoonecurrentlyaddressesthisasdescribedonp.43inthefirstanalysis.Suchastrategicapproachisdifferentfrom

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thecurrentapproachesofcarsharingcompanieslikeDriveNow,whosemainpurposeisnottoserveasfeedersforpublictransportationbutrathertoprovidefulldoortodoortrips.Duringourdocumentanalysisandinterviewswehaveidentifiedanexistinginterestamongthepublictransportcompaniestointegratethesetypeofsolutionsasexemplifiedbyoneinterviewee:

“Whatroledoweplayinallthis?Shouldwebepartofsomesortofcollaborationwhichfacilitatesthewholetrip?(...)because,ifyouneedtogobycartothebuswhichtakesyoutothestation–thenallthatneedstoworkasaflow.”

(Kaspersen,2017) Onespecificexampleofthisinterestisapartnershipestablishedin2011betweenDSBandtheformerelectriccarcompanyBetterPlace.Theylaunchedaoneyearpilotprojectonimplementationofsharedcarsattwotrainstationsfromwhereemployeesatselectedcompaniescouldrentsharedelectriccarsthroughtheirtrainticket(DSB,2011).Theambitionofthispublic-privatepartnershipwastoimplementcarsharingsolutionsatanumberofkeycommuterstationsaroundDenmarkandlaterexpandtheservicetoregularcommuters(ibid.),however,thepilotprojectseemedtofailasitneverspread(Jespersen,2017). Anotherexampleoftheinterestinintegratingprivateandpublictransportationistheproject“Densamlederejse”(thecontinuousjourney)initiatedbyMoviaandtheotherregionaltransportcompanies(FlexDanmark,2017).ThepurposeoftheprojectistointegratetheexistingflextrafikserviceintothepublictransportsystemthroughRejseplaneninorderforuserstoconsiderthesystemasawholeinsteadofconsistingofseparatesystems.TherebyitwillbecomepossibleforuserstoplanandbookthewholetripthroughRejseplanenandtobuyonlyoneticketwhichcancoverthewholetrip(ibid.).Flextrafikisataxiserviceofferedbythetransportcompaniestodisabledcitizens,citizenswhohavespecialneedsorcitizenswholiveinareaswithpoorcoverageofpublictransport(Movia,2009). Controversiesandactorconfigurations

WesuggestthatDOTcanplayakeyroleinensuringMaaS,asanexpandedDOTwouldhavethestrategicoverviewtofacilitateandcoordinateinitiatives–somethingwhichissupportedbyoneinterviewee:

“WeseeDOTastheonetoberesponsibleforMaaS.(...)Ifwedon’tlinktogetherMaaSsolutionsandprivate[transportation]incrediblyclosewithpublic[transportation],thenwedon’treallybelievetheneededcollaborationwilloccur.”

(Petersen,2017) SeveralintervieweesarguethatDOTortheindividualpublictransportcompanieswouldneverhaveeitherthepolitical,organisationaloreconomicpowertoownfleetsandrathersuggestthateconomicresponsibilityanddevelopmentshouldbeundertakenthroughpublic-privatepartnerships(Jespersen,2017;Rasmussen,2017).Furthermore,theprivateactorsthatcurrentlyprovidecarsharingservicesalsohavemoretechnicalandcommercialknowledgeandexperienceofmanagingsharedcars(Rasmussen,2017).Basedonthethis,wedonotdeemitlikelythatDOTwillownafleetofsharedcarsorcitybikes,butrathersuggestthatDOTcanbeakeyspokespersonbyfacilitatingandengaginginprivate-publicpartnershipswithRejsekortetandrelevantprivateactorslikeDriveNowandBy-ogPendlercykelFondenasvisualisedinFigure24.

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Figure24.ActorconfigurationoftheintegrationofMaaSsolutionsinRejsekortetthroughpublic/privatepartnerships. TheengagementofactorslikeBy-ogPendlercykelFondenseemstoberathersimple,sincetheyalreadyperceivethemselvesasthe“fourthleg”ofpublictransport(Bycklen,n.d.,b)andarealreadypartlyintegratedinRejsekortet.Carsharingcompaniesarealsolikelytobeinterestedtoengageinaprivate-publicpartnership,asanintegrationintothepublictransportsystemgivesaccesstonewmarkets.Additionally,suchapartnershipcanbenefitthecarsharingcompaniesbeyondtheboundariesofthecollaboration,iftheintegrationofsharedcarsresultsindecreasingcarownership,sincelowcarownershipgenerallycanbeassumedtomakemorepeopleusecarsharingservices. AspecificelementthatDOTcanprovideinrelationtoMaaSisthesuggestedfeasibilitystudiesbecauseanexpandedDOTwithanappointedmobilityteamwouldhavethecompetenciesandtheholisticoverviewtoundertakesuchataskassupportedbyoneinterviewee(Jespersen,2017).Afeasibilitystudycouldalsodictatewhichmunicipalitiestoengageinthecollaborationofexpandingcitybikeservices,sincethecurrentcitybikesysteminCopenhagenandFrederiksbergismunicipallyfunded.Inrelationtothis,By-ogPendlercykelFondenarguesthatsincethepublicprocurementisalreadysettledupon,itisratheruncomplicatedfornewmunicipalitiestoenterthefoundation(Bycyklen,n.d.,b).Thattheorganisationalframeworkalreadyexists,easesengagementofmunicipalitiesinaprivate-publicpartnershiponcitybikesaspartofMaaS. Itshouldbenoted,thatsomepublictransportcompaniesarelikelytobemoreinterestedinsometransportservicesthanothers.Asanexample,MoviaalreadyprovidesasortofcarsharingsolutionthroughflextrafikandmaythereforehavegreaterinterestsinMaaSthantheothercompanies.AsMovia’sflextrafikservicealreadyhasaGPSdrivencontrolsystem,thereisapotentialinbuildinguponthissystemwhendriverlesssharedcarsaretobeimplementedatalaterstage,accordingtooneinterviewee:

“Sointhatwaywehaveacontrolsystem,thattheothers[DSBandMetroselskabet]don’thave.Inthatwaywehavetheleadincomparisontotheothers.”

(Rasmussen,2017) Inrelationtothis,twointervieweesbelievethatMaaStosomeextentalreadyexiststhroughtheservicesthatthepublictransportcompaniesprovide(Jensen,2017;Rasmussen,2017).ThisissupportedbyoneoftheintervieweesinMovia,whofurtherarguesthatMaaSisalreadyonitswaywithintheexistingorganisationalset-up:

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“Itwillcomeallbyitself,becausetherearemoreandmorepeople,andnotmoremoneyandthereforeyouhavetobesmarteratplanningthisasaMunicipalityoraRegioninordertoprovideservicestothecitizens.Soitwillcomeallbyitselfinthestructurewehave.”

(Struckmann,2017) Thisissupportedbyanotherinterviewee,whoarguesthatDOTnotnecessarilyneedstointegrateMaaS,sinceitwillbeaddressedanywaysbytheindividualcompanies:

“IntegrationofcitybikesintoRejseplanenandsuchthings(...)makesenseinthemselves.Andwhenwecanseethatthethingsmakesense(...)–thenitwillbeaddressedanyways.”

(Jensen,2017) ThediscussiononwhichtasksDOTshouldundertake,andwhichtasksshouldbeundertakenbytheindividualcompaniesisoneofthekeycontroversieshighlightedinrelationtotheexpansionofDOTonpp.53-56.Inrelationtothis,severalintervieweesarguethatifeffortsofdevelopingMaaSarenotcoordinatedacrosspublictransportcompaniesthereisariskthatitwillnotbebuiltonaholisticapproachbutratherpronetointernalconflictsbetweenthecompaniesandtherebypositiveeffectsofpotentialsynergieswillbelost(Petersen,2017;Jespersen,2017).AsDOTholdsthepotentialtobethemaincoordinatingactorofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea,wesuggestthatitisitappropriateforDOTtoberesponsibleforcoordinatingMaaSsolutions. OtherchallengesariseintermsofintegratingnewtransportmodesintoRejsekortet.TheprocessofdevelopingRejsekortethasbeenratherlengthyandcharacterisedbytechnicalchallengesaswellasmanyinternalconflictsbetweentheinvolvedactors(Rasmussen,2017).Theseinternalconflictsmainlyseemtoderivefromthedisagreementsonrevenuesharing,asaccountedforbyoneintervieweewhobelievesthatDOTcanbecomethemainactorinsolvingtheseissues:

“Itis15yearsago,thatIfirstlyheardaboutRejsekortet.(...)Therearemanythingsthattheyarenowworkingtorepair.(...)Thereasonforthis,isthattheyhavebeensittingandarguing,andbeenafraidof[losing]theirownticketrevenues.PutitintoDOT.”

(Jespersen,2017) AsRejsekortetwillbeoneofthemainplatformsforintegrationbetweentransportmodes,theconflictsonticketrevenuesinrelationtoRejsekortetcanpotentiallycomplicatetheprocessofintegratingnewtransportmodesintothepublictransportsystem.ItisthereforeimportantforthekeyactorswhoaretoproposechangestoRejsekortettobeawareofthesepotentialcontroversies.

Test of driverless technologies Contentandpurpose

ThismeasureisintendedtoprovidetheknowledgeandexperienceondriverlesstechnologiesnecessarytoimplementdriverlessbussesaswellasdriverlesssharedcarsaspartofMaaS.Theintegrationofdriverlesstechnologiescanbothlowercostsandincreasecapacityoftheexistingsystem.Bybeinginvolvedintestinganddevelopingdriverlesstechnologies,thepublictransportcompaniescanactivelyworkagainsttheriskthatdriverlesstechnologieswillmerelyleadtoincreasesinprivatecaruse.Therebyitispossibletoturnthethreatoftechnologicalinnovationintoanadvantageaccordingtooneinterviewee(Petersen,2017). Inrelationtothis,oneintervieweearguesthatdriverlessbussesondedicatedbuswayscanbeimplementedlongbeforedriverlesscars–perhapsevenbefore2030(Jespersen,2017).Astartingpointcanbetheproject“Denkvikkevej”inCopenhagen,whichisashortBRTsegmentwherebusesrunonsegregatedbuswaysprovidingfastandeasyaccessforbuses(Movia,2016).Accordingtooneinterviewee,itwillbe

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reasonableandpresumablyrathersimpletoconvertthisinfrastructureintolanesdedicatedfordriverlessbusses(Jespersen,2017). ThepurposeoftestingdriverlesscarsistoreducecostsandincreaseflexibilityandcapacitybysubstitutingconventionalsharedcarsaspartofMaaS.Therefore,itisimportantthattheavailabledriverlesstechnologyisreliableandtechnologicallymaturewhensuchasubstitutionistotakeplace.Asanexample,theMunicipalityofVesthimmerlandhasalreadyinitiatedaprocessofimplementingdriverlessvehiclesontheroadinordertotransportmunicipalsocialandhealthcareworkers.ThemunicipalityhasenteredinacollaborationwiththefoundationAutonomouswhoprovidesoperationalandtechnicalknowledge(Pedersen,2016).Themunicipalityseesagreatpotentialforcostreductionssincedriverlesstechnologywillreleasetimeforadministrativeworkduringtransportation(ibid.).However,theprojecthasbeendelayedbytheexistinglegalframework,whichcurrentlydoesnotallowtestingdriverlessvehicleswithinmixedtraffic(ibid.).Controversiesandactorconfigurations

Thefirststepintheprocessoftestingdriverlesstechnologyistoestablishaprivate-publicpartnershipwiththeaimofcarryingouttests.AsdriverlesstechnologiescanplayanimportantpartinprovidingMaaSsolutions,andasDOTcanplayakeyfacilitatingroleintheprovisionofMaaS,wesuggestthatDOTcanactasaspokespersoninbringingtogetheractorsthatareinvolvedindevelopmentofdriverlesstechnologies.Thiscanbedonebyengaginginaprivate-publicpartnershipasvisualisedinFigure25.

Figure25.Actorconfigurationconcerningtestofdriverlesstechnologies Suchapartnershipcouldincludeprivatecompaniesdevelopingdriverlesstechnologies,withtheresponsibilityofprovidingdriverlessunitsfortestsincludingtestfacilities.Universitiescapableoffacilitatingtestsandprovidingstate-of-the-arttechnicalknowledgecouldalsobeincluded.TheTechnicalUniversityofDenmark(DTU)iscurrentlyinvolvedinatestprojectofdriverlessvehiclesinprotectedspace,butovertimethesetestscantakeplaceinrealroadenvironments(Rasmussen,2017).TheemployeesresponsibleforflextrafikserviceswithinMoviaarecurrentlyindialoguewiththeresponsibleresearchersofthistestproject(ibid.).Basedonthis,itwouldbeappropriatetoactivelyengageMoviainthepartnership.Additionally,theimplementationofdriverlessbusseswouldbewithintheareaofresponsibilityofMovia. TheMunicipalityofVesthimmerlandcouldalsobeincludedinthepartnershipbyprovidingknowledgeandexperiencesfromtheirongoingprojectondriverlessvehicles.Inrelationtothis,akeybarrierforconductingreallifetestsisthecurrentlegalframework.However,theMinisterofTransport,BuildingandHousingrecentlyintroducedabillallowingexperimentalschemesondriverlessbusseswhichhasmetwidesupportintheparliament(Kristensen,2017).

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AnotherkeycontroversyisthedegreetowhichDOTshouldengageindevelopingdriverlesstechnologies.Oneintervieweesuggeststhatthepublictransportcompaniesshouldratherwaitforthetechnologytobefullydevelopedbeforeintegratingitintothesystem:

“Whenthe[driverless]technologyisthere,thenweintegrateitintothesolutionwehave.Wemightnotbefirstmovers,butwewaitandseeinwhichdirectionitdevelops,andthenwe(...)assesshowit[driverlesstechnology]canbeintegrated.”

(Jensen,2017)

Incontrasttothis,wesuggestthatDOTandthepublictransportcompaniescanplayanactiveroleinaddressingthepotentialsofdriverlesstechnologiesinordertointegratethesetechnologiesaspartofMaaS–somethingwhichissupportedbyoneinterviewee:

“Everybodyshoutsaboutit(...).Thatdriverless[private]carssolveeverything.Buttheydon’t!AtleastnotintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Adriverlesscartakesupalmostasmuchspaceasanon-driverlesscar.Itdoesnotaddresscongestion.(...)Ithastobeconnectedtothis[MaaS].”

(Petersen,2017)

Bybeingactivelyinvolvedindevelopingtheseinnovativesolutionsratherthanwaitingforotheractorstodevelopdriverlesstechnologies,DOTandthepublictransportcompaniescanbeattheforefrontofdeliveringafavourablealternativetoprivatecarsinordertoensureastrongpublictransportsectorinthefuture.

Summary Asitisapparentfromtheaboveanalysisfocusingonactorconfigurationsandcontroversieshasgivenrisetomanydiscussionswiththeinterviewedactors.Therewerefewdisagreementsbetweentheactorsonthecontentofthevisionandthesinglemeasures,eventhoughthenecessityandlikelihoodofimplementationofsomemeasureshavebeenquestioned.ControversiesderivedregardingtheresponsibilitiesofDOTandtheneedformandateaswellasthequalityofthecurrentcoordinationwithinthecollaboration.ThesecontroversieswereespeciallyvisiblewhendiscussingtheneedforexpandingDOT.TheactorswithinDOTquestiontheneedandvalueofincreasingthedecision-makingpower,whereasRegionHovedstadenseesitasaprerequisiteforimprovingcoordinationbetweenthecompanies.ThisshouldbeseeninthelightoftheongoingdiscussionleadbyRegionHovedstadenonthequalityofcoordinationwithinDOT.WesuggestthatpartoftheresistancetoorganisationalrestructuringamongtheactorsinDOTisawayfortheactorstolegitimisetheirownworkandundermineexternalcriticismofDOT.Basedonviewpointsexpressedbytheinterviewees,amorenuancedaccountofthechallengesandopportunitiesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrossthecompanieswillbepresentedinthefollowing. Oneintervieweeconsidersbackcastingasa“relieving”alternative,whichstandsincontrasttomoretraditionaltransportplanningpractices,sinceitmotivatestheinvolvedactorstoactivelyaddresstheinitiativesandactivitiesneededtoachievetheoverallvision(Petersen,2017).Inrelationtothis,shementionsthatbackcastingcouldbeausefulapproachwhenconductingtheregionalgrowth-anddevelopmentstrategyaswellasothertransportrelateddevelopmentprojectsofRegionHovedstaden(ibid.).Atthesametime,sheacknowledgesthatconflictinginterestsinapoliticalorganisationlikeRegionHovedstadencanpotentiallystandinthewayofanambitiousvisionandshehighlightsthepotentialconflictbetweentherigidnessoflong-termapproachesandtheneedforflexibleplanningprocessesinsuchanorganisation(ibid.).Incontrasttothis,wesuggestthatthepurposeofapplyingbackcastingisexactlytogobeyondfour-yearelectionperiodsandothershort-termdecision-makingprocessesinordertoallowforlong-termplanningapproachesthatcanfacilitateasustainabletransitionofthetransportsector.

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Regardingapotentiallong-termvisionofDOT,theintervieweefromRegionHovedstadenseesbackcastingasuseful,buthighlightstheriskthattheoutcomewouldberatherunambitious:

“IalsobelievethatDOTcoulduseit[backcasting].However,Ithinkthatyouratherquicklywouldencounterissuesregardingthevision–ithastoberathernarrow.Becausethey[theactorsinDOT]keepsaying:‘Wedonothavemandateforthat’”

(Petersen,2017)

Basedonthis,onecanquestiontheapplicabilityofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionofDOTifsuchavisionisbasedonthelowestcommondenominatorratherthannormativereflectionsonadesirablefuture.Accordingtooneinterviewee,anotherchallengeofusingbackcastingisrelatedtotheuncertaintiesoffuturedevelopmentwithintransport,whichcomplicatesmakingdecisionsthatreachfarintothefuture:

“Alothappensinthissector–itisactuallyincrediblydifficulttoagreeonsomethingthatreachesreallyfarintothefuture.Wehaveagamechangerconcerningdriverlesstechnology.Willithappenin5years?Willithappenin10years?”

(Struckmann,2017) Byhighlightinguncertainties,theintervieweeseemstojustifythetimeframeofMovia’sstrategicplanningwhichdoesnotaddressthefutureroleofpublictransport20,30or40yearsahead.Additionally,thequoteclarifiesthatuncertaintiesareakeychallengewhenmakingpredictions,butthisisyetanotherargumentforapplyingbackcastingasthepurposeoftheapproachistoaddressdesirableratherthanprobablefuturesbyfocusingonwhatshouldhappenratherthanwhatcouldhappen. Toremedythechallengesofreachingagreementonalong-termvision,oneintervieweesuggeststhatbackcastingcouldserveasanon-committalbrainstormprocessdefiningthedesirablefutureincludingtheneededinitiativestoreachthatpoint(Jensen,2017).Inthisway,hebelievesthatbackcastingshouldonlybeappliedintheinitialphaseuponwhichthe‘real’workofnegotiationscanstartonhowandbywhotheidentifiedinitiativesaretoberealised(ibid.).Incontrasttothis,wesuggesttheopposite–thatrealnegotiationsbetweenactorscanindeedtakeplacethroughaparticipatorybackcastingprocess.Thiscorrespondswiththeargumentsputforwardbyoneintervieweestatinghowbackcastingcanmotivatetheinvolvedactorstoactivelyaddressresponsibilityofspecificinitiatives(Petersen,2017).Additionally,weadvocatethatifaspectsconcerninghowandwhoareleftout,thereisariskthatthesuggestedinitiativeswillneverbeimplemented(Wangel,2011a;Wangel,2011b). Generally,theactorswithinDOTseeapotentialinapplyingbackcasting,buttheyquestiontheneedforalong-termstrategicvisionandthereforeseemtobecriticaltowardsusingbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionofDOT.WesuggestthatthesecriticalviewpointspartlystemfromtheexistinginstitutionalsettingsandproceduresofboththecompaniesandDOT,makingithardforthemtoadapttothetimeframesandnormativityofbackcasting.Furthermore,theinterviewedactors’competenciesandthefactthatcoordinationiscurrentlylimitedtotasksregardingcustomerrelatedactivitiesseemtoshapetheirunderstandingsonhowfuturechallengesofpublictransportaretobeaddressedandtowhatdegreethesechallengesaretobeaddressedcollectively. Tosumup,theinputsfromtheintervieweesindicatethattherearebothopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrosspublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreainordertocontributetoimprovingcoordination.Basedontheidentifiedcontroversiesandthediscussionswithintervieweesontheproposedscenario,wesuggestthatbackcastingcanatleastcontributeasanapproachtoinitiatediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransport.Additionally,thefocusonactorconfigurationsmadeitpossiblenotonlytodiscussthecontentofthescenario,butalsotoaddresshowandbywhochangesshouldderiveincludinghowtoimprovecoordinationamongactors.

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Conclusion Throughacasestudy,thisthesisexaminedtheopportunitiesandchallengesregardingtheuseofbackcastingtocreatealong-termvisionacrosspublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreainordertocontributetoimprovingcoordination.Aspartofthis,theaimwastoinitiatediscussionsonthefutureroleofpublictransportamongkeyactorsinthefieldbyshowinganexampleofabackcastingscenariothroughwhichtheseactorscouldcollectivelyaddresssustainabletransportfutures. Thefirstanalysisrevealsthatfourmainchallengescurrentlyhindercoordinationbetweenthethreepublictransportcompanies:focusonoptimisationwithineachcompanyratherthanthepublictransportsystemasawhole;lackofincentivesforlong-termholisticplanningacrossthecompanies;differentambitionsforthecollaborationinDOT;andlimitedcoordinationoflong-terminvestmentsbetweenthecompanies.Thesechallengesseemtostemfromfundamentaldifferencesintheinstitutionaldesignregardingpurposes,geographicaldelimitations,tasks,owners,andorganisationalset-upsofthepublictransportcompanies.Thesedifferenceslimitthedegreetowhichthecurrentcollaborationallowsforthecreationofalong-termvisionatastrategiclevel.Additionally,theconfigurationofpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaiscurrentlynotgearedtodevelopasharedlong-termvisionduetothelackofagency,competencies,andlimitedbudgetofDOT.Atthesametime,thepublictransportcompaniesarenotwillingtosurrenderautonomytoDOTinordertoincreaseitsdecision-makingpower.Thecompaniesseemtobestuckwithintheexistingframeworkinwhichtheyarenotabletoseetheneedforcollectivelyaddressingthefutureroleofpublictransport20,30,or40yearsahead. Wehaveaddressedthesecontroversiesthroughourexampleofabackcastingscenario.AcentralpartofthescenarioistochangetheexistingconfigurationofDOT.Merelychangingtheexistingorganisationalset-upisinsufficienttoimprovecoordinationandinterventionsshouldthereforeincludeexpandingthetasks,addingnewknowledgeandcompetencies,andincreasingthedecision-makingpowerandthebudgetofDOT.Ifafullparticipatorybackcastingprocessweretobeundertaken,wesuggestitisofkeyimportancetoaddressthesechangesaspartofdevelopingalong-termvision.SincethepublictransportcompaniesconstituteDOT,addressingtheconfigurationofDOTincludesaddressingtheconfigurationofthethreecompanies.ItisthereforenotonlytheidentityandroleofDOTthatmaychangethroughsuchaparticipatorybackcastingprocess,butalsotheidentityandroleofthethreepublictransportcompanies.SeenfromtheperspectivesofANT,backcastingcanthusworkasaninteressementdevicethroughwhichnewidentitiesofactorsareimposedandstabilised.Inrelationtothis,themainfocusofourbackcastingscenarioistheactorconfigurationsthatimposenewidentitiesonexistingactorsbydepictingwhoshoulddowhatwithwhominrelationtothesuggestedmeasures.InallmeasureswesuggestthatDOTcanactasakeyspokespersonservingthreemainpurposes:tofacilitateaprocessofchangebyengagingincollaborationsonkeyinitiativesandprojects,suchasimplementationofMaaSsolutions;toestablishconsensusandalliancesbycoordinatingactivitiesandvisionsacrossthepublictransportcompanies;andtoserveasapoliticalmouthpieceforthealliancebetweenthecompaniestowardsexternalstakeholders,inordertocommunicatecommoninterests. Animportantpartofthisthesiswastopresentourexampleofabackcastingscenariotokeyactorsthroughinterviews.Duringtheseinterviewsmanydiscussionsaroseontheidentityandroleofactors,theirrelations,andthelevelofcoordinationneededbetweentheminordertoaddressthefutureroleofpublictransport.Asaresult,wesuggestthattosomeextentbackcastingalreadyseemstoworkasaninteressementdevice.Furthermore,weproposethatidentifyinganddescribingactorconfigurationsaspartofapplyingbackcastingisausefulmethodthroughwhichafullparticipatorybackcastingstudycancontributetoimprovedcoordinationamongtheactorsentrustedwithpromotingchange.Analysingactorconfigurationscantherebycontributetobridgingthegapbetweenbackcastingresearchandthewayinwhichknowledgefrombackcastingistranslatedandactuallyimplementedaspolicymeasures. Oneofthemaincontroversiesinourdiscussionswithsomekeyactorswascentredaroundthequestionofwhocoulddevelopavisionsimilartotheonewehavedeveloped,sincethisvisioncontainsmanyelementsbeyondthelimitsofboththeexistingandapotentialfutureDOTwithgreaterdecision-makingpower.Thedevelopmentofalong-termvisionwithinDOTrequiresthatthepublictransportcompaniesreachagreement

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withoutcompromisingahighlevelofambition.Thisthesisclearlyindicatesariskofthecompaniesarrivingatavisionofthelowestcommondenominator.Onemayquestionwhethersuchavisionwouldevenbenormativeandeffectivelyoutsidethescopeofbackcastingstudies.Additionally,keyactorsarguethatalong-termvisionofDOTwouldhavetoberathernarrowandcovermerelyelementsonwhichDOTcanpotentiallyimpact.However,ifthevisionsolelyincludesactivitiesofDOT,thenbackcastingmaynotbeapplicablebecausebackcastingstudiesgenerallyaddressratherbroadsocietalissues. Atthesametime,keyactorsarguethatstrategicdecisionsshouldbetakenbytheplanningauthorities(state,regionsandmunicipalities)ratherthanthepublictransportcompanies,whichcallsforaninclusionoftheplanningauthoritiesinthedevelopmentofastrategicvision.Inaccordancewiththis,thevisiondevelopedthroughthisthesisincludesnationalregulationliketheFingerplanandrestrictionsonprivatecaruse,makingitmorelikelytobeadoptedatanationalpoliticallevelasanoverallstrategyforpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Furthermore,publictransportinfrastructurerequiresheavyinvestmentsfrommunicipalities,regions,andthestate.Developingastrongpublictransportsystemaspartofasustainabletransitionofthetransportsectorthereforerequirestheoverallframeworkforfuturedevelopmenttobedeterminedbytheauthorities,sinceevenanexpandedDOTcanonlyimpactpartsofsuchasystem. Theseconsiderationsareimportantinrelationtohowafullparticipatorybackcastingstudywouldbedesignedifitweretocontributetoimprovingcoordination.ThefactthattheinterviewedactorswithinpublictransportintheGreaterCopenhagenAreadidnotexpressanyoppositiontothecontentofthevisiondevelopedthroughthisthesis,suggeststhattheyseemtoagreeontheimportanceofdevelopingastrongfuturepublictransportsector.Rather,controversiesarisewhenitcomestoquestionslike:whoshoulddowhat;whatisthefutureroleofDOT,thepublictransportcompanies,andtheplanningauthorities,i.e.theownersofthetransportcompanies;towhatdegreeshouldDOTfacilitatecoordinationbeyondcustomerrelatedactivities?ToanswersuchquestionsitisnotenoughtorelyonlyontheactorscurrentlyrepresentedintheboardofDOT,i.e.thedirectorsofcustomerrelations.WethereforerecommendthatactorsbeyondthecurrentcollaborationinDOTbeinvolvedinsuchaparticipatorybackcastingstudy.Thisincludesactorsattheownerlevel,i.e.theplanningauthorities,aswellasrepresentativesfromthepublictransportcompanieswhohaveknowledgeonstrategicplanning. Inrelationtothis,theanalysisofthisthesishighlightsthattherearecontrastingviewsuponwhataspectsofthepublictransportsystemDOTshouldberesponsibleofcoordinating,aswellasdifferentunderstandingsofwhatlong-termstrategicplanningentails.Wesuggestthatalignmentofsuchunderstandingscanbenegotiatedandensuredthroughaparticipatorybackcastingprocess,andthepurposeofbackcastingisthusalsotocreatealignmentamongactorsonthesecentralaspects. Otherchallengesincludethewillingnessamongactorstobenormative,aswellastheirabilitytolookbeyondthecurrentframeworkintermsofthedistributionofagencyandpowerbetweenactors.Basedonthis,wesuggestthatabackcastingapproachcanensurethenormativityofthevisionbyaddressingdesirable,andnotonlyprobable,futures. Asaconcludingremark,wesuggestthatbackcastingcanbeusedtocreatealong-termvisionacrosspublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreaaswellascontributetoimprovingcoordinationontwomainpreconditions:first,actorsattheownerlevel,i.e.theplanningauthorities,aswellasrepresentativesfromthepublictransportcompanieswhohaveknowledgeonstrategictransportplanningshouldbeincludedinaparticipatorybackcastingstudy;andsecond,allactorsshouldbeopentowardsstructuralchangesthatmayallowfortransition. TheGreaterCopenhagenAreaonlyservesasoneexampleofanurbancontextwherethereisalackofkeyactorscollectivelyaddressingsustainabletransportfutures.Manycitiesworldwidefacesimilarchallengesregardingthelackofcoordinationbetweenkeyactorsonthefutureroleoftransportsystems.Wesuggestthatincludingkeyactorsasactiveparticipantsinaparticipatorybackcastingstudycancontributetoimprovingcoordinationacrossactorswithintransportplanningincities.Additionally,wesuggestthatidentifyinganddescribingactorconfigurationsforeachpolicymeasureisausefulapproachtospecificallyaddressaspectsofcoordinationwhenundertakingabackcastingstudy.

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Reflections “Thosewhohaveknowledge,don’tpredict.Thosewhopredict,don’thaveknowledge.”

LaoTzu(604B.C.-531B.C.)

OurinspirationforundertakingthisMaster’sThesisderivedfromanobservedneedforapplyingnormativeapproachesinthetransportsector.PriortothisMaster’sThesisweundertookastudyontheroleoftrafficmodelsinlargeinfrastructureprojectsinDenmarkandfoundthatcurrenttransportplanningpracticesareheavilydominatedbyforecastingapproaches,whicharesometimeslabelledaspredictandprovide.Currentpredictandprovidemodelsarebasedonaneoliberalgrowthimperativesupportingtheviewthatincreasingtransportvolumesgenerateeconomicgrowth.Inthesemodels,themanynegativeenvironmentalandsocialconsequencesofincreasingprivatecaruseseemtobeunderminedbythesuggestedpositivemonetaryvalueoftimesavings.Additionally,thepredictedtrafficgrowththatformthebasisofthesecalculationsispronetomanyuncertaintieseventhoughitiswellacknowledged,thatwecannotpredictthefuture.Theneoliberalsystemalsobuildsuponanideaoffreedom–inthetransportsectorsymbolisedthroughprivatecars.Butthisideacertainlydoesnotgohandinhandwithsustainabilityconcerns.Ifwearetodevelopasustainabletransportsystemitrequiresquestioningtheideasofeternalgrowthandabsolutefreedom. Therefore,weseeanurgentneedtochallengecurrenttrafficmodelsandtransportplanningpracticestofavourpublictransportoverprivatecars.Inrelationtothis,itisnecessarytobasedecisionsondesirablefuturesratherthanonpredictionsofplausibleorprobablefuturesinordertoaddressissuesofsustainabilitybybringingnormativityintotransportplanningpractices.Backcastingisoneapproachthatcanensurethisnormativity. Fromtheintroductionandtheproblemanalysisitisclear,thattransitionofthetransportsectorisyettooccuratbothaglobal,nationalandlocallevel.Toalargeextentprofessionalswithinthefieldknowwhatsuchasustainabletransitionrequires,butrecommendations–liketheonessuggestedbytheCongestionCommissionin2013–seemtogetlostinendlesspoliticalfightsovershort-sightedissues.Eventhoughanambitiousgoaltobecomefreeoffossilfuelsby2050hasbeensetatanationallevelinDenmark,decision-makersappeartoworrymoreabouttheirowncareerthanmakingtherightdecisions.Also,electionimperativesthusstandinthewayofthelong-termplanningapproachesneededtoensuresustainabletransportfutures. Additionally,theplans,strategiesandvisionsofthepublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenAreahaveshowntoberathershortsightedseenfromasustainabilityperspective.Eventhoughmanydiscussionsonthefutureroleof(public)transporttakeplace,weobservealackofactivelyaddressingthisinvisionsaswellasinactualactionsbyactorswithinthefield.Ourkeyconcernsaretheabsenceofnormativityandthelackofaddressingissuescollectively,sinceweseecoordinationamongactorsasaprerequisiteforapplyingaholisticplanningapproach.Suchaholisticapproachisneededinordertodevelopasustainabletransportsystem. Duetoourworryaboutthefutureofcitiesandtheobservedneedfornormativity,ouraimisnotmerelytoanalysecurrentchallenges,buttoactuallysuggestandtestasolutionfortheidentifiedchallenges.Therefore,wehavedeliberatelychosentobenormativebybuildinganormativescenariowhichactivelyaddressesthefuture.Thescenarionotonlydescribesadesirablefuture,butalsooutlineshowtoreachthatpointinordertoconnectthefuturewithpresentdayactions.Thisisoneofthemainstrengthsofbackcasting.Wearewellawarethatthescenarioisbuiltnotonlyonouranalysis,butalsouponourownnormativity. Duringtheinterviews,wehadthechancetodiscussthiswithAssociateProfessoratRUCPerHomannJespersen.Hereitcameforwardthateventhoughthescenarioisnormative,theaimistodescribeafuturewhichisdesirableforthepublictransportcompaniesinorderforustocontributewithnewperspectivesonboththeirindividualaswellastheircollectivework.Healsohighlightedthateventhoughmanyactorswillsympathisewiththescenario,itiscontroversialbecauseitbreakswithcurrenttrends.Thistrendbreaking

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characterofthescenarioisconscious,sinceouraimhasbeentoinfluencediscussionsandtherebyimpactonkeyactorsandtheirrelations.AsSustainableCityengineers,weareeducatedtothinkinnovativelyaboutthefutureofcitiesandaddresssocio-technicalissuesfromatrendbreakingsustainabilityperspective.ThroughthisMaster’sThesiswehaveparticipatedindiscussionsontransportfuturesbyexpressingourconcernsaboutthefutureofcitiesandbyleavingroomforquestioningcurrentvisions,practicesandthelevelofcoordinationamongpublictransportcompaniesintheGreaterCopenhagenArea.Webelieve,thatiftransitiontowardsasustainabletransportsectoristotakeplace,decision-makers,practitionersandotherkeyactorsneedtostartnotjustdiscussing,butalsoactivelyaddressingthefuture.

“Innovationstartswithastoryaboutthefuture.”(Nesta–UKinnovationfoundation,2013)

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