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THE POTENTIAL OF BREADFRUIT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Kalisi F. Mausio Tropical Plant and Soil Sciences Department University of Hawai’i, Manoa Jan 14, 2020 Hā o ke Kai

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THE POTENTIAL OF BREADFRUIT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Kalisi F. MausioTropical Plant and Soil Sciences DepartmentUniversity of Hawai’i, Manoa

Jan 14, 2020Hā o ke Kai

Page 2: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

Source: Polynesian Voyaging Society

Page 3: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

Source: Facebook

Page 4: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

Source: Hawaii Ulu Cooperative

Page 5: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

Purpose■ Let’s include Agriculture in climate

vulnerability & adaptation planning■ Apply climate modelling to

Agriculture■ Study neglected, Under-utilized

Traditional Crops■ Support Future Food Systems

Source: NOAA CCAP Program

Page 6: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

MODELLING APPROACH – Habitat Suitability

Env. Criteria Suitable Env. Ranges

Fuzzy SetsSuitability Score

Validate/Refine

Hawaii a Model System

1200 trees 56 producer

sites

Page 7: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

DATA■ Temperature■ Rainfall■ Solar Radiation■ pH■ Drainage Class

Page 8: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

CURRENT HAWAI’I SUITABILITY- 50m resolution- r2 0.91, p<0.001

Page 9: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

DATA■ Temperature■ Rainfall■ Solar Radiation■ pH■ Drainage Class

■ 17 Global Climate Models– RCP4.5, 8.5– 2070– 833m resolution

Page 10: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

CURRENT GLOBAL SUITABILITY

Page 11: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

2070 GLOBAL SUITABILITY – RCP4.5

Page 12: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

2070 GLOBAL SUITABILITY – RCP8.5

Page 13: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

GLOBAL SUITABILITY CHANGE - RCP4.5

Page 14: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

GLOBAL SUITABILITY CHANGE – RCP8.5

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HAWAI’I SUITABILITY - RCP8.5

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HAWAI’I SUITABILITY CHANGE

Page 17: The Potential of Breadfruit under Climate Change...Table 1. Final model parameters derived and the initial model parameters obtained from the EcoCrop database. Abs Min Abs Max Opt

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