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The Public Debt Crisis of the United States
The Public Debt Crisis of the United States
What debt crisis?
• Five debt-crisis episodes since 1790 (annual increases in net federal debt in the 95-percentile).
• Great Recession is 2nd largest, and the only one in which primary deficits persist eight years later and are expected to persist at least through 2028.
• Persistent deficits sharply at odds with surpluses that contributed to reverse all debt spikes in U.S. history
• Much worse if we add unfunded liabilities: 20% of GDP from state+local govs. (Lutz & Sheiner (14)), 93% of GDP from social sec.+medicare (Moody’s (16))
U.S. public debt in history(net federal debt-GDP ratio, 1791-2012 from Bohn (2013), 2013-2028 from CBO)
U.S. Primary Deficits after Debt Crises
What has brought the debt down?
Initial Finaldebt debt Change inratio ratio debt ratio(1) (2) (3)
a) 1792-1812 37.5% 7.2% -30.3%b) 1866-1916 33.5% 3.0% -30.5%c) 1919-1930 34.6% 15.6% -19.0%d) 1946-1974 108.7% 23.9% -84.8%e) 1994-2001 49.2% 32.5% -16.7%
a) 1792-1812 -1.5%b) 1866-1916 -0.6%c) 1919-1930 -1.7%d) 1946-1974 -3.0%e) 1994-2001 -2.4%
nominal realgrowth inflation growth
(9) (10) (11)
5.8% 1.4% 4.3%3.3% -0.6% 3.9%2.6% 0.1% 2.5%6.9% 3.3% 3.5%5.6% 1.8% 3.7%
annnualized ratesOverall Growth Primary Debt Net debtdeficit effect deficit service Service
(4) (5) (6) (7) (8)I. Peak to Through
-7.2% -23.1% -25.2% 18.0% -5.1%-16.7% -13.8% -45.0% 28.3% 14.5%8.8% -27.8% -2.7% 11.6% -16.3%
18.5% -103.3% -24.1% 42.6% -60.7%1.0% -17.7% -21.5% 22.4% 4.8%
II. Per-year averages-0.4% -1.2% -1.3% 0.9% -0.3%-0.3% -0.3% -0.9% 0.6% 0.3%0.8% -2.5% -0.2% 1.1% -1.5%0.7% -3.7% -0.9% 1.5% -2.2%0.1% -2.5% -3.1% 3.2% 0.7%
Cumulated contribution of
- Decomposing changes in debt-GDP ratios using GBC:
FigDebts
Figure 1. U.S. Net Public Debt as a Share of GDP
(Bohn (2013) dataset 1791-2012, CBO 2013-2026)
actual debt 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March 2016 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budget 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FigInterest
Figure... Interest Rate Charges on U.S. Net Public Debt
(Bohn (2013) dataset 1791-2012, with 2013-2015 added)
Real179117921793179417951796179717981799180018011802180318041805180618071808180918101811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829183018311832183318341835183618371838183918401841184218431844184518461847184818491850185118521853185418551856185718581859186018611862186318641865186618671868186918701871187218731874187518761877187818791880188118821883188418851886188718881889189018911892189318941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-3.4982742836547009E-2-5.1135540452014405E-2-5.8597246183488938E-2-2.0606819476081117E-35.6017165991902651E-26.5707205467241181E-24.0300892618446271E-22.672831284752708E-28.2960171557562079E-26.5971287809349022E-27.7320103626943082E-22.1981778963414467E-22.0605578635014998E-24.5598933017190202E-20.108881437764871916.6842939113803013E-24.6792615482637911E-22.1214854489164159E-24.8598391337973723E-2-4.4013620386642582E-3-2.2348322416789301E-2-1.8017506151574825E-24.0102171923910523E-27.5189709068776533E-27.5120607645373871E-20.130870490838571610.166975381192524750.203167509306260370.127511016796098669.2797377661561598E-25.2756740104555444E-25.4432522388059734E-26.9932585977579453E-26.6782528513435135E-28.5011575356211067E-26.2802423375561967E-26.0070987499999839E-25.507280832095085E-21.055857291666662E-24.9098712446353776E-31.9169999999999909E-2-4.1589173228344656E-3-2.8605340802988044E-2-4.8845470692717607E-2-3.5511363636364646E-42.4993501805054219E-29.4954360410830718E-28.0699940933254499E-20.171316185834957670.151951078838174389.4732317720907844E-26.252085824493725E-23.7750590476190338E-22.0170124481327711E-21.845120938628142E-25.5940000000000101E-27.6819338654503744E-24.9074881516587565E-24.5104486377847142E-24.8707214854111447E-27.5083129995794362E-32.3748996223413865E-31.2442148964468824E-22.0531160271709314E-25.6203905618802619E-27.0407248069316308E-28.8422723013859006E-27.0933014705882425E-22.3413415860734865E-2-4.1762964279367321E-2-0.13594344812164594-0.13696838525505783-7.3525605824810825E-23.268921427008098E-20.103432882366429450.100722876991256480.106500445145018880.115896869565217618.6211904761904545E-27.2333408387278419E-26.6775398939980191E-26.9754172262773695E-28.6470557069331155E-29.0656851735015698E-27.4983592736705518E-28.9919190692969053E-29.680036023309202E-23.3019891627337872E-21.7029728251581E-22.8952195080576892E-24.0503254741158345E-27.4104032344055382E-26.8736503496503509E-24.5748738117427523E-23.13877562430116E-22.3170904048807506E-22.1872878343715874E-24.1903686550574415E-24.8250894766460162E-23.0864754438987507E-23.2982960151802798E-25.4728382324313873E-26.6062139112903262E-23.6790912778904783E-23.6959763313609617E-23.1833211440245091E-21.5165434957712387E-21.1249254498714834E-21.2584309133489402E-21.3764149121112901E-23.8362729509746618E-33.9567479069766431E-31.7148314502685613E-24.9795225077458038E-3-1.6595578171608949E-27.4498507203610842E-32.8920255960729335E-2-2.2554971664091594E-3-7.1040775063180295E-48.2081250000001216E-32.3176528437960364E-37.5893939393940624E-36.032055361120392E-4-3.495645924363433E-2-0.11399246338567093-0.13581356769384789-0.10781194791466464-9.2964870205995531E-23.8707598362710094E-20.158512201894502217.0174167695375766E-22.8290446461999297E-23.2710682745825448E-22.9310069699193031E-24.734942240265716E-25.3774921020656175E-24.1836556086589871E-25.7466599618684722E-20.116387303866270160.161005130244352260.114265088286495951.5900642865906089E-2-1.0796105001773748E-24.6589102340204303E-3-6.1605985037408439E-31.5161207887324224E-24.0798236037692615E-22.0431887485648836E-2-1.5442048726467483E-2-5.1915164948453607E-2-4.9362584378013441E-2-2.3555797773654907E-2-9.2350769230769014E-3-4.932637362637371E-2-7.6471333333333336E-2-6.8080230930720798E-2-1.2025971563980997E-23.8745453920220108E-2-3.0742544031311159E-2-1.6976965517241371E-26.4705357142857967E-31.2557076735687955E-21.5331444108761305E-2-1.1421967020023294E-3-1.0698172531214523E-2-2.445884297520684E-31.2279033134166006E-21.902905579399139E-21.6003215230037338E-22.0279555439330244E-22.0727520661157017E-22.3293108728943412E-21.9309081786251792E-21.6625776031434114E-29.6563731556400523E-37.3304873563220241E-31.915567282321895E-36.3589486858561806E-44.9496305125149576E-36.0361153262518119E-31.2315986913849608E-2-5.1809359104780794E-3-3.355531307550641E-2-1.112320737536987E-2-3.0172533972823157E-31.9648102845730708E-3-5.7286671286682633E-44.2067034599870823E-39.4466801932369115E-34.6456321215409657E-26.1554589397089021E-26.9594219846308203E-27.3867090614886832E-27.3265538510201011E-25.9998550523721494E-25.3632220895522442E-24.8405603448276047E-24.9353104212860321E-24.4556945260347147E-24.8112687052699998E-24.430480646804158E-24.1027134663341513E-24.5811916971916888E-24.6991626736943015E-24.7496278522700663E-25.3319790940766554E-24.9977854195323301E-24.5399361582555864E-23.9588949044585986E-23.5085718915415232E-22.2611362481473662E-21.5174347960764001E-21.020361000000003E-21.5686653771759929E-22.0878320495961056E-22.4148522904617664E-21.7127580893682604E-21.7223790937640038E-26.6445293962562602E-33.2530824991368057E-33.4280626463156771E-32.6835372124387469E-37.8749047818489348E-3Nominal1791179217931794179517961797179817991800180118021803180418051806180718081809181018111812181318141815181618171818181918201821182218231824182518261827182818291830183118321833183418351836183718381839184018411842184318441845184618471848184918501851185218531854185518561857185818591860186118621863186418651866186718681869187018711872187318741875187618771878187918801881188218831884188518861887188818891890189118921893189418951896189718981899190019011902190319041905190619071908190919101911191219131914191519161917191819191920192119221923192419251926192719281929193019311932193319341935193619371938193919401941194219431944194519461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420154.1910000000000003E-23.5560000000000001E-24.4110000000000003E-24.0230000000000002E-23.891E-23.9780000000000003E-23.7199999999999997E-24.061E-24.2130000000000001E-25.3010000000000002E-25.0090000000000003E-24.8189999999999997E-25.2630000000000003E-24.861E-24.684E-24.6929999999999999E-25.0599999999999999E-24.7460000000000002E-25.0819999999999997E-24.9410000000000003E-25.1499999999999997E-27.1150000000000005E-26.6909999999999997E-26.2880000000000005E-26.3409999999999994E-25.1040000000000002E-25.2859999999999997E-25.2260000000000001E-25.4690000000000003E-25.6349999999999997E-25.6680000000000001E-25.3150000000000003E-25.5219999999999998E-25.0569999999999997E-24.854E-24.5159999999999999E-24.3819999999999998E-23.9710000000000002E-23.551E-22.9649999999999999E-22.4379999999999999E-21.917E-23.39E-22.3980000000000001E-2008.2500000000000004E-35.8389999999999997E-22.5000000000000001E-26.4769999999999994E-28.2339999999999997E-24.5269999999999998E-26.4060000000000006E-25.076E-25.3690000000000002E-24.052E-25.5939999999999997E-26.54E-26.0080000000000001E-25.6189999999999997E-25.9479999999999998E-25.8729999999999997E-26.0780000000000001E-25.9130000000000002E-25.6210000000000003E-25.6009999999999997E-24.3479999999999998E-25.0290000000000001E-25.1909999999999998E-25.1479999999999998E-24.2939999999999999E-23.005E-23.6589999999999998E-23.4450000000000001E-24.8989999999999999E-25.3199999999999997E-25.3650000000000003E-25.0970000000000001E-25.1869999999999999E-25.2789999999999997E-25.176E-24.8009999999999997E-24.9680000000000002E-24.777E-24.6739999999999997E-24.582E-24.8039999999999999E-24.7239999999999997E-24.36E-24.0140000000000002E-23.669E-23.3090000000000001E-23.2629999999999999E-23.2079999999999997E-23.2469999999999999E-23.1579999999999997E-23.1370000000000002E-23.1130000000000001E-23.0450000000000001E-23.524E-22.3709999999999998E-22.8299999999999999E-22.811E-22.9329999999999998E-23.0519999999999999E-23.0859999999999999E-23.057E-22.989E-22.9780000000000001E-22.5999999999999999E-22.4250000000000001E-22.4389999999999998E-22.1440000000000001E-22.1690000000000001E-22.1360000000000001E-22.1399999999999999E-21.8409999999999999E-21.874E-21.856E-21.8509999999999999E-21.925E-21.9189999999999999E-21.915E-21.925E-21.8929999999999999E-21.176E-22.496E-23.2829999999999998E-24.0919999999999998E-24.1230000000000003E-24.2090000000000002E-24.6620000000000002E-24.3229999999999998E-24.199E-24.1149999999999999E-24.1009999999999998E-24.0259999999999997E-23.9109999999999999E-23.9530000000000003E-23.7740000000000003E-23.3009999999999998E-23.2840000000000001E-22.9669999999999998E-22.6339999999999999E-22.034E-22.0799999999999999E-22.1260000000000001E-22.051E-22.137E-22.0729999999999998E-21.8429999999999998E-21.6299999999999999E-21.5049999999999999E-21.558E-21.7780000000000001E-21.8769999999999998E-22.0469999999999999E-22.1160000000000002E-22.257E-22.1919999999999999E-22.2780000000000002E-22.477E-22.3779999999999999E-22.3369999999999998E-22.4809999999999999E-22.6589999999999999E-22.7560000000000001E-22.6780000000000002E-23.1759999999999997E-23.0720000000000001E-23.1609999999999999E-23.354E-23.5450000000000002E-23.6999999999999998E-23.8559999999999997E-24.1889999999999997E-24.2810000000000001E-24.752E-25.4760000000000003E-25.5259999999999997E-25.3600000000000002E-25.6480000000000002E-26.6420000000000007E-26.7710000000000006E-26.6699999999999995E-26.4670000000000005E-26.9510000000000002E-28.0009999999999998E-29.282E-20.108869999999999990.118040000000000010.108210.109250.108679.8100000000000007E-28.83300000000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adjusted nominal179117921793179417951796179717981799180018011802180318041805180618071808180918101811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829183018311832183318341835183618371838183918401841184218431844184518461847184818491850185118521853185418551856185718581859186018611862186318641865186618671868186918701871187218731874187518761877187818791880188118821883188418851886188718881889189018911892189318941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015-4.180903918046297E-2-7.2109047722625719E-2-9.6825597576578493E-2-0.14103933813933267-7.0032220182465466E-28.1253306337315312E-22.0900088256227578E-2-3.5149638360214341E-2-1.4919624159037692E-3-5.6690470817473138E-20.142953692725030789.2870253840855455E-3-4.1547054333960221E-2-6.646017265937787E-25.2431141729236019E-24.8797198356079541E-20.11206267621529564-7.3207665855695603E-2-3.1621731724864821E-23.1936811563204159E-21.1700466993826319E-2-0.10258033263040622-9.1521580498712507E-21.14225037344311E-24.179115145708745E-22.9121438246724418E-23.5198860959639866E-20.17857229270729280.201416432432432350.10221752887521585-4.1964839068788784E-27.2449178418377613E-23.0432220721871461E-2-7.3758210688889547E-29.9507664398583051E-23.1288093573481612E-26.836407445863113E-39.8850895196505029E-32.8633194592193822E-2-3.7109778724308429E-2-4.9085868292464085E-2-5.7733666423514962E-21.7611534727378197E-2-0.13280541826448056-0.133737946885493122.0212135830437905E-2-2.3923343000421537E-3-2.0004873286713409E-20.155130726989590964.4184271114133811E-20.163715160539786196.0175748238546101E-22.4673143699355915E-2-3.109166685625675E-2-2.2458149779491121E-2-6.1132657281324776E-22.7528989017205907E-27.8944156780623498E-2-3.140971791388969E-2-1.0720589846441198E-22.8889934611548318E-2-2.6176418927592593E-2-4.4982860425433535E-2-3.1800949525206512E-2-8.2547942919328765E-3-4.8609449613427058E-35.8196079297365033E-27.2282784505286246E-21.4341476345369752E-22.5846852236695472E-2-5.6394237407230596E-2-0.1594615223322855-0.24389867189505543-0.127769433199611324.9048680687383328E-26.7765269452218391E-25.4068461631440856E-24.087791290071574E-23.9211014987913462E-22.3238857930092616E-22.7718882809115053E-22.0032794074993143E-24.7350228651444004E-26.2509633844469725E-25.6851205469429233E-25.1795436173456055E-25.1043242277705181E-21.2989720256705528E-2-8.028586137798932E-2-5.1596032464335639E-2-2.04676695256506E-2-2.591455621147376E-35.1863560188690316E-25.5228208530934797E-22.6389666947381762E-2-6.0535999050358447E-33.3077798438549966E-3-6.4792919753084988E-34.1255650337406191E-32.4243048420384383E-2-8.6096718513195558E-31.0026626699942698E-26.9861187468091446E-22.339291027082524E-2-6.719187508058222E-38.0922191908543439E-3-1.9092085381074431E-2-5.1974106222729355E-2-5.049929674531084E-2-5.493827131692508E-2-4.9528786072597142E-2-1.888778282556014E-2-2.8343378254266693E-2-4.5061818565816814E-2-5.719167975992645E-2-2.8074784970574918E-24.3687167710508179E-27.4092867427477671E-4-5.6765298020199806E-2-1.8117856460626025E-2-3.5659652807419562E-2-4.3608488718723026E-22.7785824639256163E-22.2136948393122635E-2-0.12664914924787696-0.17574369142228519-0.1695196902723779-0.12267087804304-7.0096306789749319E-26.6853724686581906E-20.14361992042249683-3.4873950573131918E-2-4.6466252301348931E-27.8959651077246118E-3-1.1786137594470114E-21.4965935910277395E-24.1334410012344946E-26.974252363689537E-57.0689218018480604E-20.2054368038163390.281329711538461650.21320562988705483-3.1740057189542425E-2-9.8176482412060229E-2-9.5268224061107354E-2-8.7264200341491294E-28.0639438202247948E-31.8792933258552802E-2-5.9347773760330402E-2-0.13403449605609119-0.19471335412335433-0.18662179700499171-0.12517440248565959-4.0382402890695723E-21.2293315363881341E-2-2.7537727272727408E-2-7.2589228371005676E-2-3.4170084776999454E-21.5830248993042861E-2-0.12839990006246094-6.0814006309148239E-2-4.0705237583892773E-21.1559814323607309E-2-2.5484996211164401E-2-4.9830728337236563E-2-2.7824506542470595E-27.2321826086956253E-3-3.6477356181150444E-2-2.5305931778762725E-29.3236610681259879E-3-3.7248786544557877E-2-2.0620807743658598E-2-3.2826749805144106E-2-3.2384727272727454E-2-5.5292405398253419E-2-2.7826590123456896E-2-2.7319092584062621E-2-4.053752979643499E-2-1.2523001876172724E-2-1.0498331481481382E-2-3.2819379515512059E-2-5.1618556386387793E-2-2.8397600278067592E-2-1.5574391103704843E-2-5.3318919226393535E-2-5.1588619204459008E-2-4.817227282976333E-2-4.2567292316302963E-23.4431935981205086E-3-1.1847021916912004E-26.0225293916927658E-23.8316789316127364E-2-7.2322143897617375E-32.79456257386103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USsince1960
United States: Public Debt as a Share of GDP
WEO Gross General Gov Debt196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201161.76209999999999762.64809999999999960.88960000000000259.95550000000000158.21130000000000155.53580000000000252.69590000000000252.78840000000000351.03920000000000148.64849999999999949.23400000000000249.90229999999999748.307845.48530000000000244.54310000000000347.89779999999999748.02150000000000346.87700000000000245.84579999999999744.59190000000000345.30239999999999944.39950000000000349.411452.41530000000000254.03529999999999958.93679999999999862.41570000000000164.11440000000000364.80530000000000365.08769999999999866.63580000000000368.38470.73600000000000472.41700000000000271.58299999999999871.11499999999999570.29900000000000767.79500000000000264.57299999999999360.84300000000000454.83500000000000154.74757.11800000000000260.42499999999999768.26900000000000567.86499999999999566.62567.16100000000000176.13789.65500000000000198.617000000000004102.93Bohn Net Federal Debt45.64300000000000144.98199999999999943.67900000000000242.38600000000000340.03900000000000137.93099999999999734.89200000000000332.91700000000000233.34199999999999929.33299999999999827.96528.05900000000000127.40099999999999626.01223.89300000000000125.29799999999999828.18627.82399999999999827.37899999999999825.59799999999999926.13299999999999925.82328.68100000000000133.05299999999999733.99736.35200000000000439.52499999999999940.62840.96300000000000140.57342.05400000000000245.34199999999999948.05700000000000249.31300000000000249.20799999999999849.09899999999999748.37899999999999845.93942.95400000000000139.44599999999999834.7232.46499999999999633.57800000000000335.64099999999999836.7936.94899999999999836.56499999999999836.32500000000000340.48300000000000454.04200000000000262.85600000000000267.840999999999994
Fig3
Figure 3. Fiscal Reaction Function Implied U.S. Primary Balance Residuals
Primary balance residual197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011-0.67808848500296703-0.478663995140482020.915844039316860980.522074254719795960.64191272297690505-3.24039855671630980.670809890358587960.540618894443065990.623760574882979980.40826604405058298-0.661450914605130950.77013201580775903-0.93333010634086799-1.0846180911685901-0.14596142664873701-0.36268212397144101-0.619631424646239990.632925483062338980.322174415509990990.428036916341198-0.415349193508079974.4050563479949498E-2-1.26900961489021990.216370625178700010.829587665955930030.653892222868343030.908323881403924951.39021498877147011.649315777145031.01674650595492011.5165645975537201-0.51895883395036801-2.46640312710556-1.30153040261458-0.599548184280222057.4002400807737997E-2-1.3225329999999997-2.1100519999999996-5.4227419999999995-10.439468999999999-9.1214960000000005-9.0863420000000001+1 std. error1.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.2781.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278-1.278
weoreptc
Country Group NameSubject Descriptor199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011AV 00-11AV 00-11 in terms of revenueAV 91-07201220132014201520162017Estimates Start After
WorldGeneral government revenueERROR:#DIV/0!
United StatesGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a34.28831.83131.21131.532.95933.81233.92732.50530.86531.71131.39532.36431.97133.18834.19535.03235.26434.972
Advanced economiesGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a36.77935.51635.68135.82436.73337.54837.88437.42136.07535.9936.35836.528090909136.52237.09537.59237.9438.09337.961
Euro area General government revenue41.92742.75443.27943.25845.75845.79546.24146.38246.5746.19645.36144.94744.98744.59244.83445.34845.33145.05444.77844.68345.33245.1202544.915294117645.98346.49246.47546.40446.37846.424
Major advanced economies (G7)General government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a36.52735.00634.99435.12536.16737.11437.41736.95735.61235.62335.96236.045818181836.21936.90137.61238.10838.34638.196
Newly industrialized Asian economiesGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/a19.77320.23321.08620.27720.08821.31619.93519.96820.57220.20221.19721.52223.20322.53821.01921.49522.67921.303833333321.85921.97122.06522.14522.17722.301
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)General government revenuen/an/an/an/a32.73833.30933.18234.31434.15934.79133.94133.74834.80434.95935.45435.46735.96335.70234.47933.5834.36934.771416666734.23334.3334.11133.98633.84933.757
European UnionGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/a44.69145.3545.22244.95945.33944.86544.10743.50643.56143.29943.61944.08343.96643.87643.54643.34943.9643.811416666744.41644.69844.63444.50944.46944.464
Emerging market and developing economiesGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a23.61623.85124.07524.78725.72727.66628.59628.60929.43226.27627.09828.32526.504833333328.30127.98227.59727.32327.03426.722
Central and eastern EuropeGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a34.6835.02234.77935.74536.29736.16335.96835.51835.61236.80535.658936.33235.80235.65535.48735.37135.255
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/a32.71530.88833.635.24135.46635.4235.53639.44238.48438.78739.08334.81435.27437.73136.573166666736.98536.20234.90133.89332.99232.219
Developing AsiaGeneral government revenuen/an/an/a15.715.27915.23615.22914.41315.13215.33816.49616.96417.42917.82318.21419.17320.21820.01519.71820.37821.2518.584666666721.6721.7621.79821.93121.99322.005
ASEAN-5General government revenuen/an/an/an/a19.57719.79720.60219.07218.85517.56620.51219.76920.72421.07921.08421.81921.22222.08619.79819.99719.97820.469520.20120.02419.66919.43919.32219.206
Latin America and the CaribbeanGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/a27.23826.96926.4725.43524.6324.40124.91525.53225.70827.27728.33528.46329.60527.99529.86630.39627.2602530.72230.60930.47330.4330.26530.17
Middle East and North AfricaGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a30.68732.24636.0241.2842.5840.53144.84235.0236.14439.38437.873439.93738.82137.70936.57235.55134.285
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeneral government revenuen/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a25.86126.16324.23424.60425.83127.51129.98527.79629.55124.22125.36328.30326.618583333327.39427.21726.83326.49626.33326.075
WorldGeneral government total expenditureERROR:#DIV/0!
United StatesGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a34.55735.71636.09735.89136.15135.85236.67239.19644.20542.86641.45338.059636363640.64940.46939.75439.59939.72239.387
Advanced economiesGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a38.28139.02839.72339.22539.20938.9339.00440.89944.9643.75342.89840.537272727342.43641.98441.33140.9440.74340.428
Euro area General government total expenditure43.24844.5746.50645.94453.26450.11149.08248.67948.05146.29447.347.59248.13347.49547.34446.69746.0147.17551.1650.90349.44547.962333333347.430588235349.29249.0548.56948.00247.58347.24
Major advanced economies (G7)General government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a38.33239.23539.8939.34139.54239.36839.4841.48945.74144.6143.77140.981727272743.37143.00142.35742.00941.87441.52
Newly industrialized Asian economiesGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/a19.23819.63119.57721.70221.02120.30721.4719.87520.50420.64720.32920.11620.10321.44822.10820.12221.14420.681083333320.87420.23120.08520.13819.83619.962
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)General government total expendituren/an/an/an/a34.10633.58632.58234.84233.92732.66533.71833.53534.7134.12633.21332.58532.39333.47735.67233.97934.30833.698416666734.06233.34332.84432.5232.19232.044
European UnionGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/a51.82549.49547.84946.85946.34244.29545.58446.12546.72446.22846.14945.59644.87746.26750.25249.82848.43646.6967548.32747.89547.23146.46545.87145.37
Emerging market and developing economiesGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a25.3426.57327.92427.62326.80226.90227.10627.41328.66430.37829.70629.54127.83129.72129.3428.97928.67928.37228.034
Central and eastern EuropeGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a42.81841.85838.88837.79138.23138.07839.01841.53940.538.96439.768538.8738.34637.89537.50837.32337.083
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/a40.44634.29732.27933.76435.12334.25532.03233.02331.53433.28234.8539.87837.8235.7634.466666666736.23835.73635.06534.84534.65134.445
Developing AsiaGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/a18.74217.30116.90117.80618.58719.70519.45220.83921.51421.30920.72320.64720.84620.98822.18623.96923.39923.96421.65324.52324.38224.11923.84723.58723.315
ASEAN-5General government total expendituren/an/an/an/a18.18718.27320.8421.80822.50720.22323.49423.21322.41622.13821.37121.59122.20722.65722.91221.77622.0322.16922.68122.71922.39421.88321.71721.572
Latin America and the CaribbeanGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/a31.14131.13331.7829.97327.24627.75729.09328.67227.2228.66329.62829.64930.43631.86532.81832.93629.6652533.18632.46932.40332.35132.16431.991
Middle East and North AfricaGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a31.53230.30131.63429.28629.20229.51431.76736.17134.29433.71831.741934.01534.54334.17733.95133.77133.358
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeneral government total expendituren/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a26.25128.23725.47326.93525.524.86825.26626.53728.76629.65729.0429.8227.195833333329.69128.46828.25627.96127.55127.209
WorldGeneral government net lending/borrowingERROR:#DIV/0!
United StatesGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-0.269-3.885-4.887-4.391-3.192-2.04-2.745-6.691-13.34-11.155-10.059-5.6958181818-8.678-7.281-5.559-4.567-4.458-4.414
Advanced economiesGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-1.502-3.511-4.039-3.399-2.473-1.38-1.119-3.476-8.884-7.762-6.539-4.0076363636-5.912-4.887-3.737-2.997-2.647-2.465
Euro area General government net lending/borrowing-1.321-1.815-3.227-2.686-7.505-4.316-2.842-2.297-1.48-0.098-1.939-2.644-3.146-2.903-2.51-1.349-0.679-2.121-6.382-6.22-4.113-2.842-2.5151176471-3.308-2.558-2.094-1.599-1.204-0.816
Major advanced economies (G7)General government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-1.804-4.229-4.897-4.216-3.376-2.254-2.063-4.532-10.129-8.987-7.81-4.9360909091-7.152-6.1-4.745-3.9-3.528-3.324
Newly industrialized Asian economiesGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/a0.5350.6021.509-1.425-0.9331.009-1.5350.0930.068-0.4450.8691.4063.11.09-1.0891.3731.5360.62291666670.9851.741.9812.0062.342.339
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)General government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/a-1.376-0.2750.617-0.4990.2582.1360.2270.2160.1140.8562.2642.9023.582.238-1.185-0.3960.071.08516666670.18311.2831.4831.6751.731
European UnionGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/a-7.134-4.145-2.628-1.899-1.0030.57-1.477-2.619-3.163-2.929-2.53-1.513-0.912-2.392-6.706-6.479-4.476-2.8855-3.911-3.197-2.596-1.956-1.402-0.905
Emerging market and developing economiesGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-1.716-2.727-3.839-2.836-1.0720.7641.4831.1970.768-4.102-2.608-1.217-1.3254166667-1.42-1.358-1.382-1.356-1.338-1.312
Central and eastern EuropeGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-8.138-6.836-4.109-2.046-1.934-1.915-3.05-6.021-4.888-2.159-4.1096-2.538-2.544-2.241-2.02-1.952-1.828
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-6.728-2.4752.0642.1210.4291.2533.5976.4196.955.5054.233-5.064-2.5461.9712.24433333330.7470.466-0.164-0.952-1.658-2.226
Developing AsiaGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/a-3.042-2.022-1.665-2.577-4.174-4.573-4.114-4.343-4.537-3.881-2.9-2.433-1.673-0.77-2.171-4.25-3.021-2.714-3.06725-2.853-2.621-2.321-1.917-1.593-1.31
ASEAN-5General government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/a1.391.524-0.238-2.736-3.653-2.657-2.982-3.444-1.692-1.059-0.2870.227-0.985-0.571-3.113-1.779-2.052-1.6995-2.48-2.696-2.725-2.444-2.395-2.366
Latin America and the CaribbeanGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/a-3.903-4.163-5.31-4.539-2.616-3.356-4.179-3.14-1.512-1.386-1.293-1.186-0.83-3.87-2.952-2.54-2.405-2.464-1.86-1.93-1.921-1.899-1.821
Middle East and North AfricaGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-0.8511.9414.3912.01413.34111.01613.074-1.1511.855.6676.12915.9234.2793.5322.6211.780.927
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeneral government net lending/borrowingn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a-0.39-2.075-1.239-2.3310.3312.6434.7191.2590.785-5.436-3.677-1.516-0.57725-2.297-1.251-1.423-1.465-1.218-1.134
WorldGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!
United StatesGeneral government net debt49.3952.77255.34254.74554.20352.28149.15145.24340.48435.61234.88137.49440.73449.1149.22848.57748.19253.76765.75973.19980.28451.403083333346.908176470683.77487.66289.27589.54189.61589.441
Advanced economiesGeneral government net debt35.26239.15241.77343.2645.43347.62147.36347.19245.87843.61643.08645.25647.33451.04850.20448.26246.33351.59961.9766.61271.59352.24275143.020751152945.180764705976.53779.66680.8981.23681.15580.758
Euro area General government net debt37.29140.95345.63948.40655.27558.10757.59756.41155.33353.24253.08453.34454.92555.35255.66254.27152.04954.08162.35765.53368.02956.8274166667125.946590869252.17373.43674.7674.8174.35273.33571.92
Major advanced economies (G7)General government net debt37.16940.42542.65144.08945.98448.66148.82149.2564845.67145.89748.74551.77156.86956.87955.61954.55960.77772.16977.89484.07759.2439166667164.357253226548.29889.01392.79394.33894.91795.01194.71
Newly industrialized Asian economiesGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)General government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
European UnionGeneral government net debtn/an/an/an/a52.09154.64754.10451.73350.41847.00846.80647.12848.80849.17249.4747.9645.93448.93757.93761.69264.50851.28117.047116714369.8571.46671.98471.74270.8169.333
Emerging market and developing economiesGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Central and eastern EuropeGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Developing AsiaGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
ASEAN-5General government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Latin America and the CaribbeanGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Middle East and North AfricaGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeneral government net debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
WorldGeneral government gross debtERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!
United StatesGeneral government gross debt68.38470.73672.41771.58371.11570.29967.79564.57360.84354.83554.74757.11860.42568.26967.86566.62567.16176.13789.65598.617102.9372.03265.5758823529107.18111.724113.818114.185114.191114.015
Advanced economiesGeneral government gross debt60.08863.47968.07170.12772.71373.94872.98573.21574.07572.45672.37573.46875.53179.64279.25276.62674.02180.97694.514100.578104.67582.0095202.306407122572.4748235294109.856112.714113.246112.749111.824110.615
Euro area General government gross debt54.14655.94961.55364.28872.273.67873.08272.84671.78169.25968.20168.02469.19369.57470.22368.58366.43270.21480.00785.43587.97972.7603333333151.7030725567.588941176593.62494.92394.67693.47991.76889.509
Major advanced economies (G7)General government gross debt62.18165.44369.84272.24375.57977.50277.36177.12578.68177.2677.5279.29182.33387.90788.09685.5283.4791.775106.982114.695119.88791.228222.606527521177.4914117647125.146128.784129.672129.424128.679127.566
Newly industrialized Asian economiesGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a29.40129.18431.65534.10136.28337.02936.95238.41143.00742.96944.81436.7096363636177.503449756344.42342.39440.3338.04235.88233.865
Other advanced economies (Advanced economies excluding G7 and euro area)General government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/a40.02637.53337.50437.83838.30239.30939.74638.89338.08835.59336.54539.53639.47340.78138.4673333333114.151752926141.36440.52239.27137.63535.99534.316
European UnionGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/a67.66769.55168.70767.00865.74462.31860.98860.83662.21362.45662.83961.4459.48664.00274.38579.34982.09866.0341666667141.410626364187.21888.75588.84387.86286.26784.072
Emerging market and developing economiesGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a48.60149.02151.74149.66946.54541.1936.4734.69732.63635.65239.48236.341.8336666667150.31319990934.41432.69431.52930.49929.39528.212
Central and eastern EuropeGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a48.29954.92454.25853.47749.5546.442.72238.52939.49445.47846.75146.19647.1731666667118.619426598145.28644.9944.80344.43143.93943.447
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a57.26546.60538.51329.60221.95914.5069.9829.2539.5714.14114.97914.59323.41467.932301740813.87712.89413.33713.53714.40314.094
Developing AsiaGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a41.49141.17441.45141.6340.25837.92734.6535.06831.68331.65240.82334.95937.7305174.250681198932.32230.29328.42126.60224.87623.112
ASEAN-5General government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a66.75960.4857.38855.03152.92547.27541.98838.8237.70939.67137.69636.08947.6525833333214.951433683736.37735.68534.83233.8832.91331.936
Latin America and the CaribbeanGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a48.44550.17261.15760.2555.98851.32548.55147.25647.39150.45550.0250.17251.7651666667174.497658596149.1447.68846.95746.41845.54445.131
Middle East and North AfricaGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a62.36757.02657.90344.00235.86730.58125.76832.70331.22627.47540.4918127.565772685327.02724.56223.65824.45924.51324.596
Sub-Saharan AfricaGeneral government gross debtn/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/a71.32774.43867.9261.49954.89245.78233.77430.03828.95732.31331.46832.80347.1009166667173.191665389932.33233.28834.04334.10333.62532.622
United States Primary Net lending1.995-1.774-2.935-2.494-1.196-0.061-0.658-4.653-11.478-9.124-7.785-6.532-5.13-3.318-2.235-1.951-1.578
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012United States Gross Debt since 1960ygapggap
196061.76210.6156
196162.6481-2.1538
196260.8896-1.1624
196359.9555-1.6781
196458.2113-0.7754
196555.53580.9117
196652.69592.9196
196752.78841.3392
196851.03922.2556US residualsspliced
196948.64851.7448fr panelstderr bandsresiduals
197049.234-1.64254.5087-0.6780884851.278-1.278-0.678088485
197149.9023-1.80521.1013-0.47866399511.278-1.278-0.4786639951
197248.30780.3014-1.19410.91584403931.278-1.2780.9158440393
197345.48532.9871-2.42710.52207425471.278-1.2780.5220742547
197444.5431-0.464-0.7410.6419127231.278-1.2780.641912723
197547.8978-3.61560.3439-3.24039855671.278-1.278-3.2403985567
197648.0215-1.2446-0.51140.67080989041.278-1.2780.6708098904
197746.8770.3433-0.33210.54061889441.278-1.2780.5406188944
197845.84582.8479-0.42270.62376057491.278-1.2780.6237605749
197944.59192.9755-1.02240.40826604411.278-1.2780.4082660441
198045.3024-0.1155-1.6032-0.66145091461.278-1.278-0.6614509146
198144.3995-0.4537-2.81280.77013201581.278-1.2780.7701320158
198249.4114-5.3419-2.4254-0.93333010631.278-1.278-0.9333301063
198352.4153-3.8839-1.8608-1.08461809121.278-1.278-1.0846180912
198454.03530.0559-1.9817-0.14596142661.278-1.278-0.1459614266
198558.93681.01060.884-0.3626821241.278-1.278-0.362682124
198662.41571.2713.592-0.61963142461.278-1.278-0.6196314246
198764.11441.35393.79440.63292548311.278-1.2780.6329254831
198864.80532.39453.26270.32217441551.278-1.2780.3221744155
198965.08772.96892.95240.42803691631.278-1.2780.4280369163
199066.63581.76983.7508-0.41534919351.278-1.278-0.4153491935
199168.384-1.70042.82630.04405056351.278-1.2780.0440505635
199270.736-1.63281.5167-1.26900961491.278-1.278-1.2690096149
199372.417-2.0746-0.50060.21637062521.278-1.2780.2163706252
199471.583-1.3094-1.50530.8295876661.278-1.2780.829587666
199571.115-2.1125-2.56860.65389222291.278-1.2780.6538922229
199670.299-1.7679-3.23820.90832388141.278-1.2780.9083238814
199767.795-0.8207-3.38331.39021498881.278-1.2781.3902149888
199864.5730.0657-3.0364primary1.64931577711.278-1.2781.6493157771
199960.843primary 1.474-1.9356predictednet lendingnet lending1.0167465061.278-1.2781.016746506
rho0.022200054.835net lendingnet lending2.3662-2.0795net lendingdifferencedifference1.51656459761.278-1.2781.5165645976
mu-1.058200154.747-0.2691.9950.5359-0.34080.386067-0.6550671.608933-0.5189588341.278-1.278-0.518958834
Radj1.003801200257.118-3.885-1.774-0.33522.2847-0.437265-3.447735-1.336735-2.46640312711.278-1.278-2.4664031271
aly0.31200360.425-4.887-2.935-0.24322.6444-0.43212-4.45488-2.50288-1.30153040261.278-1.278-1.3015304026
alg-0.21200468.269-4.391-2.4940.88452.22110.079114-4.470114-2.573114-0.59954818431.278-1.278-0.5995481843
200567.865-3.192-1.1961.84430.80360.846895-4.038895-2.0428950.07400240081.278-1.2780.0740024008
200666.625change-2.04-0.0612.586-0.11831.261533-3.301533-1.3225331.278-1.278-1.322533
200767.1610.536-2.745-0.6582.8259-0.80131.452052-4.197052-2.1100521.278-1.278-2.110052
200876.1378.976-6.691-4.6531.0072-0.18080.769742-7.460742-5.4227421.278-1.278-5.422742
200989.65513.518-13.34-11.478-3.85152.198-1.038531-12.301469-10.4394691.278-1.278-10.439469
201098.6178.962-11.155-9.124-2.05351.3349-0.002504-11.152496-9.1214961.278-1.278-9.121496
2011102.934.313-10.059-7.785-1.4178-2.99661.301342-11.360342-9.0863421.278-1.278-9.086342
change 2011-200735.769
Average 1960-200757.85896875
Average 1970-200758.2383184211
Average 1980-200762.2267714286
Average 1991-200765.5758823529
Fig1
Figure 1. U.S. Net Public Debt as a Share of GDP
(Bohn (2013) dataset 1791-2012, CBO 2013-2026)
179117921793179417951796179717981799180018011802180318041805180618071808180918101811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829183018311832183318341835183618371838183918401841184218431844184518461847184818491850185118521853185418551856185718581859186018611862186318641865186618671868186918701871187218731874187518761877187818791880188118821883188418851886188718881889189018911892189318941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520260.398590.374819999999999990.349320000000000020.295030000000000010.250759999999999980.233089999999999990.237469999999999990.225480000000000010.206950.209920.188060.199009999999999990.182840.186810.158420000000000010.146490000000000010.134149999999999990.133789999999999990.103498.9010000000000006E-27.8969999999999999E-27.1550000000000002E-27.4270000000000003E-29.2039999999999997E-20.107250.134020.127310000000000010.104899999999999990.108410000000000010.117680000000000010.121440000000000010.114380.113239999999999990.109729999999999998.9880000000000002E-29.11E-28.2119999999999999E-27.2249999999999995E-26.0720000000000003E-25.0189999999999999E-23.7760000000000002E-22.179E-25.7999999999999996E-33.9199999999999999E-33.0000000000000001E-52.0000000000000002E-52.1000000000000001E-41.99E-35.8199999999999997E-32.2699999999999999E-33.2200000000000002E-39.0399999999999994E-32.205E-21.5259999999999999E-29.5200000000000007E-38.6099999999999996E-31.9449999999999999E-22.2919999999999999E-23.116E-22.861E-22.887E-22.717E-22.2579999999999999E-21.434E-21.106E-29.3399999999999993E-37.8899999999999994E-31.252E-21.6650000000000002E-21.779E-22.426E-20.127010000000000010.221400000000000010.261869999999999990.325639999999999990.335129999999999980.326739999999999970.318639999999999980.310900000000000010.294040000000000020.272370.253300000000000030.239980.240430.243390.242840.241590.248209999999999990.255599999999999990.204880000000000010.180409999999999990.156760000000000010.140309999999999990.134910.134030000000000010.13130.119109999999999990.109549.5180000000000001E-28.3320000000000005E-27.3910000000000003E-26.8879999999999997E-26.7159999999999997E-27.3959999999999998E-27.9320000000000002E-28.5239999999999996E-28.3629999999999996E-27.9990000000000006E-28.5809999999999997E-26.9540000000000005E-26.1969999999999997E-25.5440000000000003E-25.2240000000000002E-24.8710000000000003E-24.5370000000000001E-24.2279999999999998E-24.0379999999999999E-24.2500000000000003E-24.0680000000000001E-23.764E-23.6510000000000001E-23.5740000000000001E-23.3509999999999998E-23.3649999999999999E-23.3829999999999999E-22.9790000000000001E-25.8999999999999997E-20.195880.345729999999999980.293690000000000010.295119999999999990.3090.277349999999999990.241090.223459999999999990.201470000000000010.183670.173490000000000010.159640.155890.194830.279370000000000010.379660.432450.457500000000000020.475600000000000020.440230000000000010.432080000000000020.464030.441859999999999980.422640000000000020.469530.708629999999999980.883349999999999971.06224999999999991.086530.961999999999999970.842829999999999970.789980000000000020.801989999999999980.669350.615879999999999980.586260.595489999999999960.572409999999999970.520270000000000010.48640.492030000000000020.478789999999999990.456430.449820.436790000000000010.423860000000000010.400390000000000020.379309999999999980.348920000000000010.329170000000000020.333419999999999990.293329999999999980.279650000000000010.280590000000000010.274009999999999980.260120000000000020.238930.252979999999999980.281860.278239999999999990.273789999999999980.255979999999999990.261330000000000010.258230000000000020.286810000000000010.330529999999999990.339969999999999990.363520000000000010.395249999999999990.406279999999999970.409629999999999990.405729999999999980.420540000000000020.453419999999999990.480570.493130000000000010.492080000000000020.490989999999999980.483790.459390000000000020.429539999999999980.394459999999999980.347200000000000010.324649999999999990.335780000000000020.356410.36790.369489999999999990.365649999999999980.363250000000000020.404830000000000020.540420000000000010.628560000000000010.678409999999999960.725600000000000020.748040000000000040.765460000000000030.75822000000000001179117921793179417951796179717981799180018011802180318041805180618071808180918101811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829183018311832183318341835183618371838183918401841184218431844184518461847184818491850185118521853185418551856185718581859186018611862186318641865186618671868186918701871187218731874187518761877187818791880188118821883188418851886188718881889189018911892189318941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519061907190819091910191119121913191419151916191719181919192019211922192319241925192619271928192919301931193219331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520260.758220000000000010.776220000000000130.777220000000000020.776220000000000130.784220000000000140.794220000000000150.805220000000000050.820220000000000060.834220000000000070.846220000000000080.86122000000000010.87822
Fig2
Figure 2. Primary Fiscal Deficits as a Share of GDP After U.S. Debt Crises
WW2-10123456789100.215970.199919999999999995.253E-2-3.5970000000000002E-2-6.3530000000000003E-2-1.8929999999999999E-2-6.4900000000000001E-3-3.3890000000000003E-2-9.6600000000000002E-33.0200000000000001E-3-1.0919999999999999E-2-5.7600000000000004E-3WW1-10123456789100.142120.17402999999999999-1.5879999999999998E-2-1.865E-2-2.342E-2-2.2120000000000001E-2-2.1819999999999999E-2-1.7600000000000001E-2-1.7690000000000001E-2-1.975E-2-1.6920000000000001E-2-1.371E-2Great Recession-10123456789108.6900000000000005E-27.4190000000000006E-26.9199999999999998E-25.800000000000001E-23.1000000000000007E-21.7000000000000001E-21.3000000000000001E-2Civil War-10123456789109.9250000000000005E-20.114140000000000017.8880000000000006E-20.10779-2.0709999999999999E-2-3.1919999999999997E-2-2.0809999999999999E-2-2.1829999999999999E-2-2.7859999999999999E-2-2.5420000000000002E-2-2.452E-2-1.653E-2Great Depression-10123456789103.1859999999999999E-23.3570000000000003E-24.6879999999999998E-22.921E-24.5839999999999999E-21.5959999999999998E-2-8.2100000000000003E-3CBO March 2016 forecast-101234567891001.3000000000000001E-21.635E-21.315E-28.850000000000002E-31.1320000000000002E-21.0489999999999999E-2
US-BohnHist
Data Series on the U.S. Budget, 1791-2012
This version: oct. 24, 2013
Main reference (please cite when using these data): Henning Bohn, 2008. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States" (in: R. Neck and J. Sturm, "Sustainability of Public Debt", MIT Press, pp.15-49.
Notes on the data are available online at http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/%7Ebohn/papers/DebtUS-Notes.pdf
Fiscal Series in Percent of GDPSupplemental Data:nominalgrowth RealRealCBODebt ratio
Column:123456debt from7nominalnom growthgrowthDeficit89adjusted10int chargeint chargeMar-16implied
Fiscal YearDebt/GDP, end of periodRevenues/GDPOutlays/GDPDeficit/GDPInterestPaid/GDPDEFprimary/GDPbudgetGDP, $bill.GDPdividnddividnddivided byInterestChargeGDPdeflator, 2005=100%interestPeriodLengthin pctInflationchange indebtby adding
See Note (a)See Note (b)See Note (b)See Note (c)See Note (b)See Note (d)constrgrowthfactornom. GrowthSee Note (e)real grtreal gr divdchargeSee Note (b)GDP deflDebt/GDPdebtprojectiondeficit to lagged debt
179139.9%nanananana0.189139.859
179237.5%1.78%2.47%0.69%1.55%-0.87%37.34%0.2061.0870.0800.0320.0064.2%0.05171-4.18%137.482-2.37740.5%
179334.9%2.02%1.95%-0.07%1.22%-1.29%33.51%0.2301.1160.1040.039-0.0013.6%0.055491.04001149570.0144201376-7.21%10.9650172572-3.50%7.31%34.932-2.5537.4%
179429.5%2.04%2.63%0.59%1.32%-0.73%30.80%0.2661.1560.1350.0470.0054.4%0.061061.05058829940.0168205802-9.68%10.9488644595-5.11%10.04%29.503-5.42935.5%
179525.1%1.90%2.34%0.44%0.99%-0.55%24.81%0.3221.2110.1740.0510.0044.0%0.067471.09597889130.0258368592-14.10%10.9414027538-5.86%10.50%25.076-4.42729.9%
179623.3%2.33%1.59%-0.74%0.89%-1.63%21.71%0.3601.1170.1050.026-0.0073.9%0.070241.07309020780.0170797388-7.00%10.9979393181-0.21%4.11%23.309-1.76724.3%
179723.7%2.51%1.77%-0.74%0.96%-1.70%23.50%0.3460.962-0.040-0.009-0.0084.0%0.069160.9766602884-0.00557026178.13%11.0560171665.60%-1.54%23.7470.43822.6%
179822.5%2.25%2.19%-0.06%0.85%-0.92%23.31%0.3511.0160.0160.004-0.0013.7%0.067311.04388981620.00998430532.09%11.06570720556.57%-2.67%22.548-1.19923.7%
179920.7%1.99%2.55%0.56%0.85%-0.29%21.47%0.3791.0790.0730.0160.0054.1%0.067331.07819920470.0163535241-3.51%11.04030089264.03%0.03%20.695-1.85323.1%
180021.0%2.74%2.73%-0.01%0.86%-0.87%19.82%0.3951.0440.0420.009-0.0004.2%0.068341.02826244180.0056881513-0.15%11.02672831282.67%1.50%20.9920.29720.7%
180118.8%2.93%2.13%-0.80%1.00%-1.80%18.00%0.4411.1160.1040.022-0.0075.3%0.066451.1480432860.0270697516-5.67%11.08296017168.30%-2.77%18.806-2.18620.2%
180219.9%3.70%1.94%-1.76%1.01%-2.77%18.71%0.4060.919-0.088-0.017-0.0195.0%0.065460.9326460858-0.01358133314.30%11.06597128786.60%-1.49%19.9011.09517.0%
180318.3%2.63%1.86%-0.76%0.90%-1.67%18.40%0.4211.0390.0370.007-0.0074.8%0.063691.06740706710.01256753940.93%11.07732010367.73%-2.70%18.284-1.61719.1%
180418.7%2.56%1.89%-0.67%0.93%-1.60%15.98%0.4631.0980.0890.016-0.0065.3%0.06561.06628268360.011365772-4.15%11.0219817792.20%3.00%18.6810.39717.6%
180515.8%2.61%2.02%-0.59%0.79%-1.38%16.04%0.5201.1230.1100.020-0.0054.9%0.06741.09326409940.0159363748-6.65%11.02060557862.06%2.74%15.842-2.83918.1%Bohn 2008 Table 1: Deficits v. Changes in Debt Ratio
180614.6%3.01%1.90%-1.12%0.72%-1.83%14.81%0.5170.995-0.005-0.001-0.0114.7%0.067480.9935081656-0.00103515655.24%11.0455989334.56%0.12%14.649-1.19314.7%Period: With Primary Interest Nominal Real Inflation Change in Predicted
180713.4%3.18%1.62%-1.56%0.66%-2.22%13.11%0.5160.998-0.002-0.000-0.0164.7%0.063711.05728871080.00793749444.88%11.108881437810.89%-5.59%13.415-1.23413.1%From To interest Deficit Charge Growth Growth Effect Debt/GDP debt change
180813.4%3.50%2.04%-1.46%0.70%-2.16%12.74%0.4870.945-0.059-0.008-0.0155.1%0.062740.9593370607-0.005686148811.21%11.06684293916.68%-1.52%13.379-0.03612.0%Deficit Effect Effect from b.c.
180910.3%1.41%1.87%0.46%0.53%-0.07%12.30%0.5511.1300.1150.0150.0044.7%0.062781.12947914750.0153371713-7.32%11.04679261554.68%0.06%10.349-3.0313.8%As in his paper(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
18108.9%1.57%1.37%-0.20%0.47%-0.67%9.33%0.5981.0850.0780.008-0.0025.1%0.06461.05456192890.0053544641-3.16%11.02121485452.12%2.90%8.901-1.44810.1%179220031.20%0.30%0.90%1.30%0.80%0.50%0.00%-0.10%
18117.9%2.37%1.33%-1.05%0.41%-1.46%7.71%0.6081.0170.0170.001-0.0104.9%0.064651.01614593020.00141431383.19%11.04859839134.86%0.08%7.897-1.0047.9%179218680.40%-0.10%0.50%0.60%0.50%0.10%-0.10%-0.20%
18127.2%1.55%3.21%1.66%0.38%1.28%9.26%0.6321.0390.0380.0030.0165.2%0.068280.984084391-0.00127718281.17%10.995598638-0.44%5.61%7.155-0.7429.6%186920031.70%0.50%1.20%1.70%1.00%0.70%0.00%0.00%
18137.4%1.90%4.20%2.30%0.48%1.83%8.30%0.7541.1940.1620.0120.0197.1%0.074811.08940299970.0058718258-10.26%10.9776516776-2.23%9.56%7.4270.2729.5%179219140.10%-0.40%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.00%-0.30%-0.40%
18149.2%1.26%3.92%2.66%0.52%2.14%8.98%0.8851.1740.1480.0110.0236.7%0.081281.08090899330.0055593125-9.15%10.9819824938-1.80%8.65%9.2041.77710.1%191520032.80%1.20%1.60%2.40%1.20%1.20%0.40%0.40%
181510.7%1.69%3.51%1.82%0.61%1.21%10.58%0.9311.0510.0480.0040.0176.3%0.083061.02835577430.00253790131.14%11.04010217194.01%2.19%10.7251.52111.0%Using this spreadsheet
181613.4%5.02%3.22%-1.80%0.76%-2.56%8.71%0.9501.0210.0200.002-0.0186.3%0.082151.03205878410.00333150074.18%11.07518970917.52%-1.10%13.4022.6778.9%179220031.23%0.24%0.99%1.34%0.84%0.50%-0.02%-0.11%
181712.7%3.41%2.25%-1.17%0.66%-1.83%11.96%0.9701.0210.0210.003-0.0115.1%0.080311.04469751350.00573406242.91%11.07512060767.51%-2.24%12.731-0.67112.2%179218680.37%-0.12%0.49%0.60%0.44%0.15%-0.10%-0.23%
181810.5%2.19%2.01%-0.18%0.61%-0.79%12.34%0.9871.0170.0170.002-0.0025.3%0.074771.09241860040.01077042453.52%11.130870490813.09%-6.90%10.49-2.24112.6%186920031.72%0.44%1.28%1.76%1.06%0.70%0.03%-0.04%
181910.8%2.79%2.44%-0.35%0.59%-0.94%11.40%0.8810.893-0.120-0.013-0.0045.2%0.067420.9901602035-0.001042452217.86%11.166975381216.70%-9.83%10.8410.35110.1%179219140.11%-0.38%0.49%0.50%0.49%0.01%-0.30%-0.39%
182011.8%2.31%2.37%0.05%0.66%-0.61%12.40%0.7730.878-0.139-0.0150.0015.5%0.05911.00145751030.000157778720.14%11.203167509320.32%-12.34%11.7680.92710.9%191520032.77%1.08%1.69%2.49%1.31%1.17%0.36%0.28%
182112.1%1.97%2.13%0.17%0.69%-0.52%12.44%0.7410.958-0.043-0.0050.0025.6%0.055371.02294781860.002639918910.22%11.127511016812.75%-6.31%12.1440.37611.9%
182211.4%2.48%1.84%-0.64%0.64%-1.28%10.37%0.8171.1030.0930.011-0.0065.7%0.053541.14066520960.0149758079-4.20%11.09279737779.28%-3.31%11.438-0.70611.5%New Table Accounting for Changes in the Debt-GDP Ratio
182311.3%2.56%1.83%-0.73%0.61%-1.34%10.92%0.8030.982-0.018-0.002-0.0075.3%0.053560.981637882-0.00213954567.24%11.05275674015.28%0.04%11.324-0.11410.7%1792-2008
182411.0%2.36%2.47%0.11%0.61%-0.50%11.17%0.8221.0240.0230.0030.0015.5%0.05361.02329148990.00257749463.04%11.05443252245.44%0.07%10.973-0.35111.4%1915-2008
18259.0%2.34%1.70%-0.65%0.47%-1.12%9.03%0.9321.1340.1180.013-0.0065.1%0.052631.15513313950.0147366211-7.38%11.0699325866.99%-1.81%8.988-1.98510.3%1945-20082.02%-0.07%2.08%2.71%1.17%1.54%-0.75%-0.70%
18269.1%2.84%1.91%-0.93%0.45%-1.38%8.50%0.8890.954-0.049-0.004-0.0104.9%0.051730.970236555-0.00275720239.95%11.06678252856.68%-1.71%9.110.1228.1%1945-20152.45%0.42%2.03%2.63%1.15%1.49%-0.18%-0.18%
18278.2%2.55%1.79%-0.76%0.39%-1.15%8.23%0.9011.0130.0130.001-0.0084.5%0.049831.05209357320.00451074383.13%11.08501157548.50%-3.67%8.212-0.8988.3%Debt crises and aftermath
18287.2%2.65%1.76%-0.90%0.33%-1.23%7.03%0.9341.0370.0350.003-0.0094.4%0.048941.05558600730.00432434960.68%11.06280242346.28%-1.79%7.225-0.9877.3%1863-18685.01%3.79%1.22%1.99%1.10%0.90%3.19%3.02%
18296.1%2.58%1.58%-1.00%0.26%-1.26%6.02%0.9621.0300.0290.002-0.0104.0%0.0481.04969466180.00342046070.99%11.06007098756.01%-1.92%6.072-1.1536.2%1919-19242.37%1.20%1.17%1.30%0.68%0.62%0.75%1.07%
18305.0%2.57%1.56%-1.01%0.20%-1.20%5.03%0.9681.0070.0070.000-0.0103.6%0.047111.02570363650.00152161382.86%11.05507280835.51%-1.85%5.019-1.0535.1%1933-19383.75%2.72%1.03%2.24%1.98%0.26%2.55%1.51%
18313.8%2.76%1.47%-1.29%0.13%-1.41%3.41%1.0351.0690.0650.003-0.0123.0%0.0481.04950548940.0023674774-3.71%11.01055857291.06%1.89%3.776-1.2433.7%1945-19503.87%2.13%1.75%4.04%-0.96%5.00%-1.36%-0.17%
18322.2%2.86%1.55%-1.31%0.07%-1.38%2.20%1.1151.0770.0720.003-0.0122.4%0.048931.05678298150.0020289174-4.91%11.00490987120.49%1.94%2.179-1.5972.5%2009-20156.41%4.90%1.51%1.89%0.95%0.94%5.05%4.52%
18330.6%2.81%1.91%-0.91%0.03%-0.93%1.11%1.2061.0820.0750.002-0.0081.9%0.048931.08161563630.0016442114-5.77%11.019171.92%0.00%0.58-1.5991.3%
18340.4%1.78%1.52%-0.26%0.02%-0.28%0.31%1.2261.0160.0160.000-0.0033.4%0.05080.9786063234-0.0001267961.76%10.9958410827-0.42%3.82%0.392-0.1880.3%(a)(c )(d)(b)(e)(f)
18350.0%2.45%1.22%-1.23%0.00%-1.24%-0.90%1.4471.1810.1530.001-0.0102.4%0.053551.12015766660.0004204926-13.28%10.9713946592-2.86%5.41%0.003-0.389-0.8%Table …. : Accounting for Large Declines in U.S. Public Debt-GDP Ratio
18360.0%3.04%1.84%-1.21%0.00%-1.21%-1.20%1.6711.1540.1340.000-0.0100.0%0.05631.0979986090.0000026776-13.37%10.9511545293-4.88%5.14%0.002-0.001-1.2%InitialFinalCumulated contribution ofannnualized rates
18370.0%1.52%2.27%0.75%0.00%0.75%0.75%1.6380.980-0.020-0.0000.0080.0%0.056320.9798402227-0.00000041152.02%10.9996448864-0.04%0.04%0.0210.0190.8%debtdebtChange inOverallGrowthPrimaryDebtNet debtnominalrealgross
18380.2%1.59%2.05%0.46%0.00%0.46%0.48%1.6551.0110.0110.0000.0050.8%0.05541.02745150930.0000056108-0.24%11.02499350182.50%-1.63%0.1990.1780.5%ratioratiodebt ratiodeficiteffectdeficitserviceServicegrowthinflationgrowthyearsnominal
18390.6%1.76%1.51%-0.26%0.02%-0.28%-0.07%1.7881.0800.0740.000-0.0025.8%0.053551.11730592380.0002089301-2.00%11.09495436049.50%-3.34%0.5820.383-0.1%(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)growthinflationgrowth
18400.2%1.23%1.53%0.30%0.01%0.29%0.96%1.5860.887-0.127-0.0010.0032.5%0.050790.935565054-0.000400839515.51%11.08069994098.07%-5.15%0.227-0.3550.9%I. Peak to Through
18410.3%1.04%1.65%0.60%0.02%0.59%0.82%1.6171.0200.0190.0000.0066.5%0.046171.12175237480.00024638054.42%11.171316185817.13%-9.10%0.3220.0950.8%a) 1792-181237.5%7.2%-30.3%-7.2%-23.1%-25.2%18.0%-5.1%5.8%1.4%4.3%203.071.3202.3226722606
18420.9%1.33%1.68%0.35%0.05%0.30%0.69%1.5040.930-0.075-0.0000.0048.2%0.043380.9898909268-0.000032883616.37%11.151951078815.20%-6.04%0.9040.5820.7%b) 1866-191633.5%3.0%-30.5%-16.7%-13.8%-45.0%28.3%14.5%3.3%-0.6%3.9%504.990.7266.8767203916
18432.2%1.12%1.56%0.45%0.07%0.37%1.36%1.4830.986-0.014-0.0000.0054.5%0.041421.0325951330.00028535876.02%0.51.09473231779.47%-4.52%2.2051.3011.3%c) 1919-193034.6%15.6%-19.0%8.8%-27.8%-2.7%11.6%-16.3%2.6%0.1%2.5%111.331.0081.3190831462
18441.5%1.90%1.45%-0.46%0.12%-0.57%1.67%1.5401.0380.0370.001-0.0046.4%0.041481.0369363780.0007854362.47%11.06252085826.25%0.14%1.526-0.6791.7%d) 1946-1974108.7%23.9%-84.8%18.5%-103.3%-24.1%42.6%-60.7%6.9%3.3%3.5%286.462.4932.5923562192
18451.0%1.79%1.37%-0.42%0.06%-0.48%0.98%1.6701.0840.0780.001-0.0045.1%0.0421.07105136260.0010123173-3.11%11.03775059053.78%1.25%0.952-0.5741.1%e) 1994-200149.2%32.5%-16.7%1.0%-17.7%-21.5%22.4%4.8%5.6%1.8%3.7%71.471.1351.2908594466
18460.9%1.65%1.54%-0.11%0.05%-0.15%0.78%1.8001.0780.0720.001-0.0015.4%0.043381.04360762070.0003977975-2.25%11.02017012452.02%3.29%0.861-0.0910.8%II. Per-year averages
18471.9%1.33%2.87%1.54%0.06%1.49%2.32%1.9951.1080.0980.0010.0144.1%0.044321.08476582690.0006728031-6.11%11.01845120941.85%2.17%1.9451.0842.4%a) 1792-1812-1.5%-0.4%-1.2%-1.3%0.9%-0.3%17921812
18482.3%1.74%2.21%0.47%0.12%0.35%2.36%2.0501.0280.0270.0010.0055.6%0.044321.02764983890.00052331972.75%11.055945.59%0.00%2.2920.3472.4%b) 1866-1916-0.6%-0.3%-0.3%-0.9%0.6%0.3%18661916
18493.1%1.54%2.22%0.68%0.18%0.50%3.00%2.0250.987-0.013-0.0000.0076.5%0.043850.9980306505-0.00004522667.89%11.07681933877.68%-1.06%3.1160.8243.0%c) 1919-1930-1.7%0.8%-2.5%-0.2%1.1%-1.5%19191930
18502.9%1.97%1.78%-0.19%0.17%-0.36%2.66%2.2161.0940.0860.003-0.0026.0%0.044311.08309457660.0023905826-3.14%11.04907488154.91%1.05%2.861-0.2552.9%d) 1946-1974-3.0%0.7%-3.7%-0.9%1.5%-2.2%19461974
18512.9%2.22%2.02%-0.21%0.16%-0.36%2.47%2.3661.0680.0630.002-0.0025.6%0.044781.05643003950.0015282256-1.07%11.04510448644.51%1.06%2.8870.0262.7%e) 1994-2001-2.4%0.1%-2.5%-3.1%3.2%0.7%19942001
18522.7%2.05%1.81%-0.23%0.16%-0.40%2.57%2.4361.0300.0290.001-0.0025.9%0.045241.0192608360.00054555252.89%11.04870721494.87%1.03%2.717-0.172.7%III. As fractions of the change in debt ratio
18532.3%2.33%1.82%-0.51%0.14%-0.65%1.99%2.6491.0870.0800.002-0.0055.9%0.047541.03459017890.0009083937-2.62%11.0075083130.75%5.08%2.258-0.4592.2%a) 1792-18121.000.240.760.83-0.590.17
18541.4%2.51%1.97%-0.54%0.11%-0.64%1.50%2.9421.1110.1000.002-0.0056.1%0.050311.04958838760.0010668047-4.50%11.00237489960.24%5.83%1.434-0.8241.7%b) 1866-19161.000.550.451.48-0.93-0.48
18551.1%2.03%1.86%-0.18%0.07%-0.25%1.13%3.2181.0940.0860.001-0.0025.9%0.052631.04569628370.0006266492-3.18%11.0124421491.24%4.61%1.106-0.3281.3%c) 1919-19301.00-0.471.470.14-0.610.86
18560.9%2.16%2.03%-0.13%0.06%-0.19%0.91%3.4271.0650.0610.001-0.0015.6%0.054471.02902555450.0003119676-0.83%11.02053116032.05%3.50%0.934-0.1721.0%d) 1946-19741.00-0.221.220.28-0.500.72
18570.8%1.90%1.86%-0.03%0.05%-0.08%0.85%3.6371.0610.0580.001-0.0005.6%0.054461.06136313340.0005399958-0.49%11.05620390565.62%-0.02%0.789-0.1450.9%e) 1994-20011.00-0.061.061.28-1.34-0.28
18581.3%1.30%2.07%0.77%0.04%0.72%1.57%3.5870.986-0.014-0.0000.0084.3%0.053091.01153960880.00009000885.82%11.07040724817.04%-2.52%1.2520.4631.6%Note: Cumulated contributions are defined as the sum of the corresponding component from the initial to the final year indicated in each row.
18591.7%1.52%1.97%0.44%0.07%0.37%1.72%3.5130.979-0.021-0.0000.0055.0%0.051231.01505194220.00018565587.23%11.0884227238.84%-3.50%1.6650.4131.7%Overall deficit is total federal revenues minus outlays. Primary deficit is total revenues minus outlays excluding debt service. The growth effect of
18601.8%1.54%1.73%0.19%0.09%0.11%1.80%3.6431.0370.0360.0010.0025.2%0.050321.05579140720.00087983941.43%11.07093301477.09%-1.78%1.7790.1141.9%year t is defined as -[gt/(1+gt)]bt-1, where gt is the rate of growth of nominal GDP between t-1 and t and bt-1 is the debt ratio at the end of t-1.
18612.4%1.11%1.78%0.67%0.11%0.56%2.40%3.7341.0250.0240.0000.0075.1%0.05170.9976278756-0.00004230042.58%11.02341341592.34%2.74%2.4260.6472.4%Net debt service is defined as debt service net of the growth effect. Given these definitions, the figures in column (3) equal those in columns (4)
186212.7%1.26%11.50%10.25%0.32%9.93%12.44%4.1271.1050.0950.0020.0934.3%0.056271.01550570560.0003704247-5.64%10.9582370357-4.18%8.84%12.70110.27512.7%plus (5) and the figures in column (4) equal those in columns (6) plus (7), and hence column (3) is also equal to the sum of colums (6) and (8).
186322.1%2.23%14.13%11.90%0.49%11.41%22.27%5.0581.2250.1840.0230.0973.0%0.067081.02797977110.0034569851-15.95%10.8640565519-13.59%19.21%22.149.43924.6%
186426.2%3.82%12.48%8.66%0.77%7.89%24.81%6.9341.3710.2710.0600.0633.7%0.080571.14142322290.0274316318-24.39%10.8630316147-13.70%20.11%26.1874.04730.8%
186532.6%4.06%15.78%11.72%0.94%10.78%33.80%8.2241.1860.1570.0410.0993.4%0.089961.06218978040.0153321356-12.78%10.9264743942-7.35%11.65%32.5646.37737.9%Debt crises and aftermath
186633.5%6.79%6.33%-0.45%1.62%-2.07%32.11%8.2231.000-0.000-0.000-0.0054.9%0.091380.9844054268-0.0051586644.90%11.03268921433.27%1.58%33.5130.94932.1%186218686
186732.7%6.05%4.63%-1.42%1.77%-3.19%32.56%8.1110.986-0.014-0.005-0.0145.3%0.087221.0334039830.01083281766.78%11.103432882410.34%-4.55%32.674-0.83932.1%191819246
186831.9%5.00%4.65%-0.35%1.73%-2.08%32.34%8.1081.000-0.000-0.000-0.0045.4%0.083491.04426127620.01384895695.41%11.10072287710.07%-4.28%31.864-0.8132.3%193219397
186931.1%4.53%3.94%-0.59%1.60%-2.18%30.97%8.1861.0100.0100.003-0.0065.1%0.07931.06304536910.01889738394.09%11.106500445110.65%-5.02%31.09-0.77431.3%194319507
187029.4%4.96%3.74%-1.23%1.56%-2.79%29.49%8.2861.0120.0120.004-0.0125.2%0.074751.07379238040.02136544413.92%11.115896869611.59%-5.74%29.404-1.68629.9%200920156
187127.2%4.50%3.43%-1.07%1.47%-2.54%27.51%8.5251.0290.0280.008-0.0105.3%0.072451.0615428610.01704694512.32%11.08621190488.62%-3.08%27.237-2.16728.3%Per-year averages
187225.3%4.29%3.18%-1.11%1.35%-2.45%25.51%8.7251.0230.0230.006-0.0115.2%0.071061.04341121520.01133197782.77%11.07233340847.23%-1.92%25.33-1.90726.1%1862-1868
187324.0%3.72%3.24%-0.49%1.17%-1.65%24.17%8.9641.0270.0270.007-0.0054.8%0.069811.04582460990.01109877662.00%11.06677539896.68%-1.76%23.998-1.33224.8%1918-1924
187424.0%3.40%3.37%-0.03%1.19%-1.22%23.92%8.9841.0020.0020.001-0.0005.0%0.06851.02139107150.00502591954.74%11.06975417236.98%-1.88%24.0430.04524.0%1932-1939
187524.3%3.25%3.10%-0.15%1.16%-1.32%24.23%8.8590.986-0.014-0.003-0.0024.8%0.066061.02255125270.00530242146.25%11.08647055718.65%-3.56%24.3390.29623.9%1943-1950
187624.3%3.35%3.02%-0.33%1.14%-1.47%24.24%8.7750.990-0.010-0.002-0.0034.7%0.06341.03198713890.00754403765.69%11.09065685179.07%-4.03%24.284-0.05524.0%2009-2015
187724.2%3.23%2.77%-0.46%1.11%-1.57%23.96%8.7250.994-0.006-0.001-0.0054.6%0.061681.02204626090.00523823065.18%11.07498359277.50%-2.71%24.159-0.12523.8%As fractions of the change in debt ratio
187824.8%2.96%2.72%-0.24%1.18%-1.42%23.99%8.7000.997-0.003-0.001-0.0024.8%0.059311.03698796290.00861718975.10%11.08991919078.99%-3.84%24.8210.66223.9%1862-1868
187925.6%3.05%2.97%-0.08%1.17%-1.25%23.93%8.9941.0340.0330.008-0.0014.7%0.056631.08273592350.01896665951.30%11.09680036029.68%-4.52%25.560.73924.7%1918-1924
188020.5%3.27%2.62%-0.65%0.94%-1.58%21.88%10.2051.1350.1190.030-0.0064.4%0.057211.12319670670.0280352302-8.03%11.03301989163.30%1.02%20.488-5.07224.9%1932-1939
188118.0%3.22%2.33%-0.89%0.74%-1.63%17.79%11.1931.0970.0880.018-0.0084.0%0.058511.07235920880.0138246164-5.16%11.01702972831.70%2.27%18.041-2.44719.6%1943-1950
188215.7%3.41%2.18%-1.23%0.60%-1.83%15.82%11.8461.0580.0550.010-0.0123.7%0.058951.05045250990.0086649679-2.05%11.02895219512.90%0.75%15.676-2.36516.8%2009-2015
188314.0%3.25%2.16%-1.08%0.48%-1.57%14.05%12.2691.0360.0350.005-0.0103.3%0.058531.04320667860.0064925571-0.26%11.04050325474.05%-0.71%14.031-1.64514.6%
188413.5%2.89%2.03%-0.87%0.45%-1.32%13.43%12.0450.982-0.019-0.003-0.0093.3%0.056271.02114387550.00290526855.19%11.07410403237.41%-3.86%13.491-0.5413.2%
188513.4%2.75%2.21%-0.54%0.44%-0.98%13.25%11.7810.978-0.022-0.003-0.0063.2%0.054341.0128013020.00170519495.52%11.06873650356.87%-3.43%13.403-0.08813.0%
188613.1%2.84%2.05%-0.79%0.43%-1.22%12.53%11.8511.0060.0060.001-0.0083.2%0.053651.0188613270.00248118522.64%11.04574873814.57%-1.27%13.13-0.27312.6%
188711.9%3.02%2.18%-0.84%0.39%-1.23%11.81%12.2991.0380.0360.005-0.0083.2%0.053661.03766939160.0047664421-0.61%11.03138775623.14%0.02%11.911-1.21912.3%
188811.0%3.00%2.06%-0.94%0.35%-1.30%10.64%12.6431.0280.0270.003-0.0093.1%0.054091.0197976380.00231231820.33%11.0231709042.32%0.80%10.954-0.95711.0%Primary balances after debt shocks
18899.5%2.95%2.15%-0.80%0.31%-1.11%9.75%13.1221.0380.0360.004-0.0083.1%0.054581.02853707030.0030392202-0.65%11.02187287832.19%0.91%9.518-1.43610.2%WW2WW1GRCivil WarGD
18908.3%2.99%2.21%-0.78%0.27%-1.05%8.49%13.4661.0260.0260.002-0.0083.0%0.053981.03762290580.00345110750.41%11.04190368664.19%-1.10%8.332-1.1868.7%-229.4%1.6%1.4%0.6%-0.2%
18917.4%2.89%2.62%-0.27%0.28%-0.55%7.97%13.6111.0110.0110.001-0.0033.5%0.053311.0234395990.00190825862.42%11.04825089484.83%-1.24%7.391-0.9418.1%-121.6%14.2%8.7%9.9%3.2%
18926.9%2.53%2.46%-0.07%0.17%-0.24%7.09%14.0541.0330.0320.002-0.0012.4%0.052941.03981723970.0028302014-0.86%11.03086475443.09%-0.69%6.888-0.5037.3%020.0%17.4%7.4%11.4%3.4%IMFCBO
18936.7%2.70%2.68%-0.02%0.19%-0.21%6.75%14.3091.0180.0180.001-0.0002.8%0.05271.02272844380.00153074381.00%11.03298296023.30%-0.45%6.716-0.1726.9%15.3%-1.6%6.9%7.9%4.7%6.9%
18947.4%2.23%2.67%0.45%0.20%0.24%7.43%13.7500.961-0.041-0.0030.0052.8%0.051370.9858553565-0.00096358386.99%11.05472838235.47%-2.52%7.3960.687.2%2-3.6%-1.9%5.80%10.8%2.9%5.7%5.8%actual
18957.9%2.35%2.58%0.23%0.23%0.00%7.58%13.8301.0060.0060.0000.0022.9%0.04961.04169388750.00296025542.34%11.06606213916.61%-3.45%7.9320.5367.6%3-6.4%-2.3%3.1%-2.1%4.6%4.3%3.1%
18968.5%2.36%2.46%0.10%0.25%-0.15%7.74%14.3481.0370.0360.0030.0013.1%0.04931.04380443050.0033287533-0.67%11.03679091283.68%-0.60%8.5240.5928.0%4-1.9%-2.2%1.7%-3.2%1.6%2.5%1.7%
18978.4%2.37%2.49%0.12%0.26%-0.13%8.46%14.6731.0230.0220.0020.0013.1%0.049011.02863581680.00237296520.81%11.03695976333.70%-0.59%8.363-0.1618.6%5-0.6%-2.2%1.3%-2.1%-0.8%1.4%1.3%
18988.0%2.63%2.88%0.25%0.24%0.00%8.21%15.4151.0510.0480.0040.0023.1%0.048951.05191649090.0041274913-1.91%11.03183321143.18%-0.12%7.999-0.3648.6%6-3.4%-1.8%-2.2%2.3%1.6%projections
18998.6%3.08%3.61%0.53%0.24%0.29%7.90%16.7471.0860.0790.0060.0053.0%0.049661.07082036640.0052902628-5.20%11.0151654351.52%1.45%8.5810.5828.5%7-1.0%-1.8%-2.8%2.1%1.3%
19007.0%3.12%2.87%-0.26%0.22%-0.48%7.66%18.1621.0850.0780.007-0.0023.0%0.050571.06503265460.0052397005-5.05%11.01124925451.12%1.83%6.954-1.6278.3%80.3%-2.0%-2.5%3.5%0.9%
19016.2%2.98%2.66%-0.32%0.16%-0.48%6.09%19.7181.0860.0790.005-0.0032.6%0.051241.0714477990.0046371647-5.49%11.01258430911.26%1.32%6.197-0.7576.6%9-1.1%-1.7%-2.5%13.5%1.1%
19025.5%2.65%2.28%-0.36%0.14%-0.50%5.39%21.2481.0780.0720.004-0.0032.4%0.051771.06659111210.0038690096-4.95%11.01376414911.38%1.03%5.544-0.6535.8%10-0.6%-1.4%-1.7%29.4%1.0%
19035.2%2.53%2.33%-0.20%0.13%-0.33%5.11%22.1861.0440.0420.002-0.0022.4%0.052831.02316152560.0012550071-1.89%11.0038362730.38%2.05%5.224-0.325.3%11-1.4%-1.2%21.6%1.0%
19044.9%2.32%2.50%0.18%0.11%0.08%5.15%23.3221.0510.0490.0030.0022.1%0.053751.0332423260.0016807085-2.83%11.00395674790.40%1.74%4.871-0.3535.4%
19054.5%2.18%2.27%0.09%0.10%-0.01%4.64%24.9531.0700.0650.0030.0012.2%0.053991.06514571760.0029791679-4.51%11.01714831451.71%0.45%4.537-0.3345.0%
19064.2%2.20%2.11%-0.09%0.09%-0.18%4.10%27.0321.0830.0770.003-0.0012.1%0.054871.06594256850.0028067313-5.72%11.00497952250.50%1.63%4.228-0.3094.4%
19074.0%2.34%2.04%-0.31%0.09%-0.39%3.72%28.4081.0510.0480.002-0.0032.1%0.056991.01181079230.0004935313-2.81%10.9834044218-1.66%3.86%4.038-0.193.9%
19084.3%2.17%2.38%0.21%0.08%0.13%4.34%27.7200.976-0.025-0.0010.0021.8%0.057610.9652795223-0.00145244244.37%11.00744985070.74%1.09%4.250.2124.2%WEO US primary net lndng
19094.1%2.14%2.46%0.32%0.08%0.24%4.49%28.2181.0180.0180.0010.0031.9%0.057041.02815846390.00116395940.07%11.0289202562.89%-0.99%4.068-0.1824.6%2011-7.785
19103.8%2.22%2.28%0.06%0.07%-0.01%3.83%30.4721.0800.0740.0030.0011.9%0.058231.05779028350.0022224715-5.68%10.9977445028-0.23%2.09%3.764-0.3044.1%2012-6.5321.253WEO projections for 2012-2017
19113.7%2.22%2.19%-0.04%0.07%-0.10%3.59%31.6081.0370.0360.001-0.0001.9%0.059351.01772865390.0006556822-1.81%10.9992895922-0.07%1.92%3.651-0.1133.7%2013-5.131.402
19123.6%2.07%2.07%-0.01%0.07%-0.08%3.45%33.4081.0570.0540.002-0.0001.9%0.061.0454899330.0015885734-3.57%11.0082081250.82%1.10%3.574-0.0773.6%2014-3.3181.812
19133.4%2.01%2.01%0.00%0.07%-0.06%3.36%35.6021.0660.0620.0020.0001.9%0.061011.04802023130.0016376049-4.36%11.00231765280.23%1.68%3.351-0.2233.6%2015-2.2351.083
19143.4%2.05%2.06%0.00%0.07%-0.06%3.38%35.3030.992-0.008-0.0000.0001.9%0.061710.9803495726-0.00067168472.78%11.00758939390.76%1.15%3.3650.0143.4%2016-1.9510.284
19153.4%1.94%2.12%0.18%0.07%0.11%3.55%35.2030.997-0.003-0.0000.0021.9%0.062860.9789326245-0.00072417362.21%11.00060320550.06%1.86%3.3830.0183.5%2017-1.5780.373
19163.0%1.85%1.74%-0.12%0.06%-0.17%2.78%41.0711.1670.1430.005-0.0011.9%0.066371.10498952390.0032143251-12.66%10.9650435408-3.50%5.58%2.979-0.4043.3%CBO March 2016 projections
19175.9%2.18%3.88%1.69%0.05%1.64%4.12%50.4141.2270.1850.0060.0141.2%0.075791.07491750730.0020762454-17.57%10.8860075366-11.40%14.19%5.92.9214.7%Overall defInteresPrimaryDebt
191819.6%5.86%20.38%14.52%0.30%14.21%19.30%62.2201.2340.1900.0110.1182.5%0.089891.04058629950.0023011947-16.95%10.8641864323-13.58%18.60%19.58813.68820.4%2011
191934.6%7.00%25.25%18.24%0.84%17.40%34.88%73.2481.1770.1510.0290.1553.3%0.104061.01693655180.00326228-12.27%10.8921880521-10.78%15.76%34.57314.98537.8%2012-7.21.4-5.8actual
192029.4%8.11%7.75%-0.36%1.23%-1.59%30.53%81.9931.1190.1070.037-0.0034.1%0.119420.9754076002-0.0087166948-7.01%10.9070351298-9.30%14.76%29.369-5.20434.2%2013-4.41.3-3.1
192129.5%6.96%6.33%-0.64%1.23%-1.87%29.46%80.0230.976-0.025-0.007-0.0074.1%0.119710.9736176332-0.00795819336.69%11.03870759843.87%0.24%29.5120.14328.7%2014-31.3-1.7Spliced to Bohn
192230.9%5.52%4.51%-1.01%1.33%-2.34%31.38%72.9190.911-0.097-0.029-0.0114.2%0.107681.0130220550.003793667514.36%11.158512201915.85%-10.05%30.91.38828.5%2015-2.61.3-1.373.675.8
192327.7%4.87%3.97%-0.90%1.31%-2.21%27.59%79.0761.0840.0780.024-0.0084.7%0.105311.10884393630.0303313886-3.49%11.07017416777.02%-2.20%27.735-3.16530.0%2016-31.4-1.63575.4projections77.6
192424.1%4.47%3.36%-1.11%1.07%-2.18%24.24%86.5141.0940.0860.024-0.0104.3%0.106841.0783996360.0201633405-4.65%11.02829044652.83%1.45%24.109-3.62626.6%2017-2.91.6-1.31575.577.7
192522.3%4.07%3.27%-0.80%0.96%-1.76%22.52%89.4411.0340.0330.008-0.0084.2%0.10781.02462031650.00579308450.79%11.03271068273.27%0.90%22.346-1.76323.3%2018-2.71.8-0.88575.477.6
192620.1%4.03%3.11%-0.92%0.85%-1.77%20.29%94.2321.0540.0510.011-0.0094.1%0.109041.04158634970.0089218582-1.18%11.02931006972.93%1.15%20.147-2.19921.4%2019-3.22.1-1.13276.278.4
192718.4%4.15%2.96%-1.20%0.78%-1.98%18.45%96.6501.0260.0250.005-0.0124.1%0.108381.03190598360.00622934511.50%11.04734942244.73%-0.61%18.367-1.7819.0%2020-3.42.3-1.04977.279.4
192817.3%4.04%3.07%-0.97%0.72%-1.69%17.41%96.5500.999-0.001-0.000-0.0104.0%0.106991.01194670120.0021683464.13%11.0537749215.38%-1.28%17.349-1.01817.4%2021-3.52.5-1.00778.380.5
192916.0%3.85%3.12%-0.73%0.64%-1.37%15.96%100.3201.0390.0380.007-0.0073.9%0.106711.04176390080.00695514520.01%11.04183655614.18%-0.26%15.964-1.38516.6%2022-3.82.6-1.20879.882.0
193015.6%4.17%3.41%-0.76%0.63%-1.39%15.68%97.40.971-0.030-0.005-0.0084.0%0.10490.9876503675-0.0019961477.07%11.05746659965.75%-1.70%15.589-0.37515.2%2023-3.62.7-0.89781.283.4
193119.5%3.72%4.27%0.55%0.71%-0.16%18.66%83.90.861-0.162-0.0250.0063.8%0.097510.9261267786-0.012434686920.54%11.116387303911.64%-7.04%19.4833.89416.1%2024-3.42.9-0.5382.484.6
193227.9%2.85%6.89%4.05%0.86%3.19%28.21%67.60.806-0.240-0.0470.0503.3%0.086760.9060939739-0.020191847228.13%11.161005130216.10%-11.02%27.9378.45423.5%2025-3.62.9-0.61983.986.1
193338.0%3.47%7.99%4.52%1.16%3.36%37.34%57.60.851-0.175-0.0490.0533.3%0.080420.9184470141-0.02480650221.32%11.114265088311.43%-7.31%37.96610.02932.5%2026-3.73.0-0.6285.687.8
193443.2%4.83%10.69%5.86%1.17%4.69%41.56%61.21.0630.0600.0230.0553.0%0.081511.04920238660.0178041704-3.17%11.01590064291.59%1.36%43.2455.27943.8%
193545.8%5.18%9.21%4.02%1.10%2.92%42.02%69.71.1380.1210.0520.0352.6%0.084571.09689299040.038200056-9.82%10.989203895-1.08%3.75%45.752.50547.3%
193647.6%4.99%10.48%5.48%0.90%4.58%46.05%78.61.1280.1130.0520.0492.0%0.085891.1104494580.0455046618-9.53%11.00465891020.47%1.56%47.561.8151.2%
193744.0%6.13%8.63%2.50%0.90%1.60%45.02%87.91.1180.1060.0500.0222.1%0.088221.08885769780.038811978-8.73%10.9938394015-0.62%2.71%44.023-3.53750.1%Macaulay Duration calculations
193843.2%7.59%7.69%0.10%0.92%-0.82%43.55%89.01.0130.0130.0060.0012.1%0.088751.007040490.00307776590.81%11.01516120791.52%0.60%43.208-0.81544.1%Dyears=5.34.845.3yrs is May 2012 average maturity of US trbills
193946.4%7.06%10.25%3.19%0.92%2.27%46.33%89.21.0020.0020.0010.0322.1%0.087021.02159938690.00913534531.88%11.0407982364.08%-1.95%46.4033.19546.4%annual rdd4.84 is average maturity on average 1980-2010
194044.2%6.76%9.78%3.02%0.93%2.09%45.75%96.81.0860.0790.0370.0282.1%0.08711.08481313180.0362789096-5.93%11.02043188752.04%0.09%44.186-2.21749.4%0.0010.18786792450.2058181818
194142.3%7.64%11.97%4.33%0.83%3.50%41.82%114.11.1790.1520.0670.0372.1%0.09031.1369482350.053223133-13.40%10.9845579513-1.54%3.67%42.264-1.92248.5%0.00250.18665094340.2046280992
194247.0%10.14%24.35%14.21%0.74%13.47%47.63%144.31.2650.2090.0880.1121.8%0.0971.17732591230.0636569898-19.47%10.9480848351-5.19%7.42%46.9534.68956.5%0.0050.18462264150.2026446281
194370.9%13.31%43.57%30.26%0.90%29.36%67.84%180.31.2490.2000.0940.2421.6%0.10371.16875201740.067793795-18.66%10.9506374156-4.94%6.91%70.86323.9177.2%0.00750.18259433960.200661157
194488.3%20.91%43.64%22.73%1.14%21.60%83.81%209.21.1600.1380.0980.1961.5%0.10781.11615870070.0737471652-12.52%10.9764442022-2.36%3.95%88.33517.47293.6%0.010.18056603770.198677686
1945106.2%20.40%41.88%21.48%1.49%19.99%104.95%221.41.0580.0550.0490.2031.6%0.11051.03245806040.0277704527-4.04%10.9907649231-0.92%2.50%106.22517.89109.8%0.0150.1765094340.1947107438
1946108.7%17.65%24.81%7.16%1.91%5.25%112.81%222.61.0050.0050.0060.0711.8%0.11830.9391286221-0.06885172031.23%10.9506736264-4.93%7.06%108.6532.428113.4%0.01750.17448113210.1927272727
194796.2%16.52%14.79%-1.72%1.87%-3.60%101.99%233.21.0480.0450.049-0.0161.9%0.13050.9496807152-0.0575703093-2.75%10.9235286667-7.65%10.31%96.2-12.453106.9%0.020.17245283020.1907438017
194884.3%16.20%11.60%-4.60%1.76%-6.35%82.83%256.61.1000.0910.088-0.0422.0%0.14291.00486192050.0046545375-7.26%10.9319197691-6.81%9.50%84.283-11.91791.6%0.030.16433962260.1828099174
194979.0%14.53%14.31%-0.21%1.68%-1.89%79.50%271.31.0570.0540.046-0.0022.1%0.14771.02292754950.0188909044-3.42%10.9879740284-1.20%3.36%78.998-5.28584.1%0.040.15622641510.1748760331
195080.2%14.44%15.59%1.14%1.79%-0.65%79.62%273.11.0070.0070.0050.0112.3%0.14541.02255810450.0174273241.58%11.03874545393.87%-1.56%80.1991.20180.1%qq/(1+q(1-d))q/(1+q(1-d))
195166.9%16.12%14.21%-1.91%1.48%-3.39%66.50%320.21.1720.1470.118-0.0162.2%0.15331.11204376420.0808043544-12.84%10.969257456-3.07%5.43%66.935-13.26478.3%0.9990009990.55153180150.55704664
195261.6%18.98%
