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The Pursuit of Happiness
Alberto Gallo, CFA
Portfolio Manager, Algebris Macro Credit Fund (UCITS), Head of Macro Strategies
King’s College
January 2018
How the American Dream Turned into Greed and Inequality
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Happiness (1776-1950)
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Happiness
Thomas Jefferson, U.S. Constitution, 1776
“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that
all men are created equal, that they are
endowed by their Creator with certain
unalienable Rights, that among these are
Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”
Jean-Jacques Rosseau, The Social
Contract and Discourses, 1762
“Why should we build our happiness on the
opinions of others, when we can find it in our
own hearts?”
Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics, 350 BC
“He is happy who lives in accordance with
complete virtue and is sufficiently equipped
with external goods, not for some chance
period but throughout a complete life.”
Dante, Divine Comedy, Inferno XXVI,1320
“Consider your origin: you were not made to
live like brutes, but to follow virtue and
knowledge”
John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1689
“The necessity of pursuing happiness [is] the foundation of liberty. As therefore the highest
perfection of intellectual nature lies in a careful and constant pursuit of true and solid
happiness; so the care of ourselves, that we mistake not imaginary for real happiness, is the
necessary foundation of our liberty. The stronger ties we have to an unalterable pursuit of
happiness in general, which is our greatest good, and which, as such, our desires always
follow, the more are we free from any necessary determination of our will to any particular
action.”
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Happiness
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. FRED.
Note: Inflation adjusted.
Household Income, Returning to 20 Year-Highs.
Real Median Household Income in the United States, $
45,000
49,000
53,000
57,000
61,000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
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GDP, Corporate Profits, Wages
Happiness
Corporate profits have risen, not wages
US corporate profit and wages, as a % of GDP
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, FRED
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
40%
43%
46%
49%
52%
55%
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
Wages, as a % of GDP Corporate profit before tax, % GDP (RHS)
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Rising Inequality
Happiness
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, World Wealth and Income Debate
The top 1%: an ever increasing share of total income
% of total income for the top 1% of earners
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1886 1902 1918 1934 1950 1966 1982 1998 2014
Hundre
ds
United Kingdom United States Germany Japan
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Happiness
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. Corak 2016; and IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2017).
Note: Gini coefficients are as of 2015 or the most recent year available. Intergenerational income elasticity is defined as the percentage change in earnings of a child's generation associated with the percentage change in the parent's generation.
Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.
Inequality and Lack of Social Mobility go Hand-in-hand
Gini coefficient
Inte
rgenera
tional in
com
e e
lasticity
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Happiness
Source: R. Chetty, D. Grusky, M. Hell, N. Hendren, R. Manduca and J. Narang – “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940”, Science Magazine, April 2017.
Income percentile born into
Chance to make more money than your parents
Social Mobility, from Baby Boomers to Millennials
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Happiness
NA
$8.21
$47,442
$163,3344
$7,520
% of Housing Ownership1
U.S. Federal Minimum Wage
Avg. Graduate Starting Salary2
Average House Price3
Avg. University Tuition5
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. U.S. Census Bureau. FRED. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department for Education. National Association of Colleges and Employers.
Note: Data as of 1960 for Baby Boomers, 1980 for Generation X and latest available for Millennials. 1 For under-35 year olds in the United States. 2 For Bachelor Degree Graduates, as of 2016 for Millenials.
3 Average Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States. 4 As of 1963. 5 Includes tuition and fees in a public, degree granting 4-year university. Does not include room or board. As of 1965 for Baby Boomers.
35.6%
$7.25
$50,556
$375,700
$35,112
From Baby Boomers to Millennials
BOOMER GENERATION X MILLENNIAL
43.8%
$9.76
$51,047
$239,484
$9,056
All $ data is inflation-adjusted
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Dreams (1950-1980)
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John M. Keynes
“Capitalism is the astounding
belief that the most wickedest
of men will do the most
wickedest of things for the
greatest good of everyone.”
Dreams
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Capitalism in the XXth century & Post World War II
Industrialisation
Great Depression
World War II
Reconstruction
Marshall Plan
Economics
Society
Policy
Milton Friedman
“A society that puts equality
before freedom will get
neither. A society that puts
freedom before equality will
get a high degree of both.”
Bretton Woods
Managed capitalism
Industrialization
Stagflation
8
Elvis Presley
“Ambition is a
dream with a
V8 engine”
Creedence Clearwater Revival
“Some folks inherit star spangled eyes
Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask them, "How much
should we give?“ Ooh, they only
answer More! more! more! y'all”
Martin Luther King, Jr.
"We must learn to live
together as brothers or
perish together as
fools."
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Dreams
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Late XXth century: Debt-based democracies
Alan Greenspan
“Ayn Rand and I remained close
until she died in 1982 […] I was
intellectually limited until I met
her.”
Bretton Woods
Breaks Down
Nixon Shock
Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae
Sallie Mae
Ayn Rand
“I refuse to apologize for my
ability – I refuse to apologize for
my success – I refuse to
apologize for my money. If this is
evil, make the most of it.”
Gordon Gekko
“Greed, for the lack
of a better word, is
good.”
Shareholder Capitalism >
Stakeholders Capitalism
Laissez-faire & De-regulation
“Trickle Down Economics”
Ronald Reagan
“(…) societies that have achieved the most
spectacular, broad-based progress are
neither the most tightly controlled, (…).
No, what unites them all is their willingness
to believe in the magic of the marketplace.”
9
Economics
Society
Policy
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Central Banks,
Masters of the Universe
14
DreamsThe XXIst Century and Beyond
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Future of
Capitalism
E-money
Greenspan put
WTO founding
Introduction of
the Euro
QE Debasement
Market Bubbles
Inequality stress
Alan Greenspan
“Debt servicing is
unlikely to become
destabilizing.”
Thomas Piketty
“When the rate of return on capital
exceeds the rate of growth of output
and income, (…) capitalism (…)
generates arbitrary and unsustainable
inequalities (…).”
Financial Crisis
Saved by QEUniversal Basic
Income
Bail-inable debt
“QE for the people”
Protectionism
Debt cancellation
?Economics
Society
Policy
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Greed (1980-2008)
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Financial
crisis & QE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
US GDP
US total credit
Europe total credit
UK total credit
China total credit
16
Dreams
Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bloomberg, FRED, PBoC. Private credit calculated as the sum of household loans, corporate loans and bonds and bank debt
Total Private Credit in US$ Trillion (lhs)
Bretton Woods
breaks downFreddie Mac created
Right to buy
Reserve
requirement
abolished (UK)
First Fannie
Mae MBS
Big Bang
(UK)
Glass-Steagall
Act repealed
Privatisation of Fannie Mae346%
GDP
261%
385%
The Debt Supercycle: from Fiat Money to Fiat Credit
283%
The EuroHelp to
Buy (UK)
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The Debt Supercycle: Interest Rates at All-time Low
Greed
Source: Homer and Sylla (1991), Heim and Mirowski (1987),Weiller and Mirowski (1990), Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2015 forthcoming), Bank of England, Historical Statistics of the United States Millenial Edition , Volume 3 and Federal Reserve Economic Database. Notes: the
intervals on the x-axis change through time up to 1715. From 1715 onwards the intervals are every twenty years. Prior to the C18th the rates reflect the country with the lowest rate reported for each type of credit: 3000BC to 6th century BC - Babylonian empire; 6th century BC to
2nd century BC - Greece; 2nd century BC to 5th century AD - Roman Empire; 6th century BC to 10th century AD - Byzantium (legal limit); 12th century AD to 13th century AD - Netherlands ;13th century AD to 16th century AD - Italian states. From the C18th the interest rates are
of an annual frequency and reflect those of the most dominant money market: 1694 to 1918 this is assumed to be the UK; from 1919-2015 this is assumed to be the US. Rates used are as follows: Short rates: 1694-1717- Bank of England Discount rate;1717-1823 rate on 6 month
East India bonds; 1824-1919 rate on 3 month prime or first class bills; 1919-1996 rate on 4-6 month prime US commercial paper ; 1997-2014 rate on 3month AA US commercial paper to nonfinancials. Long rates: 1702-1919 - rate on long-term government UK annuities and
consols; 1919-1953, yield on long-term US government bond yields; 1954-2014 yield on 10 year US treasuries.
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GreedEurozone Banks vs Rest of the World
Eurozone bank assets: €31.2tn
Eurozone GDP: €11.1tn
Value of world’s gold stock : €7.5tn
US-Iraq war cost (2003-10): €2.7tn
Global hedge fund industry: €2.6tn
ESM: €0.5tn
Star Wars episode 7: €0.00026tn
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, IMF, Wikipedia
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Page 19
The Financial Cycle: No Machine of Perpetual Motion
Greed
Central banks
foreign
reserves
A rise in NPL %
to 15%
(assuming a
20% recovery
rate)
Financial cycles and crises have become longer and deeper
Source: Keynote speech by Claudio Borio, National Association for Business Economics, 33rd Economic Policy Conference, March 2017.
Note: The graph compares the financial cycle with traditional measures of the business cycle.
1. The financial cycle as measured by frequency-based (bandpass) filters capturing medium-term cycles in real credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and real house prices.
2. The business cycle as measured by a frequency-based (bandpass) filter capturing fluctuations in real GDP over a period from one to eight years.
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Greed
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
ProtectionismFiscal
stimulus
Geopolitical
risks
Collateral
effects
Resource
misallocationQE
Wealth
distribution
Asset
bubbles
Higher
inequality
Lower
productivity
Financial
boom / bust
Lower
potential
growth
Reforms +
Fiscal policy
More
monetary
stimulus
Populism
You are
here
Financial
repression
The Cost of Kicking the Debt Can
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Post crisis side-effects:
1. Asset bubbles
2. Rising inequality/political risk
3. Resource misallocation/lower productivity
21
Greed
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Benefits of QE
Growth
Costs of QE
Without QE With QE
Time
Payback Time – Prepare to Pay for QE’s Collateral Effects
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Fear (2008-present)
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Rebalancing
and
Revolutions
Rising
inequality
Growing
populism
Job
automation
Greater fiscal
spending
Lower inflation &
looser monetary
policy
Artificial
intelligencePolarisation in skills,
jobs and income
Extreme weather
Fear
Rebalancing and Revolutions
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Page 24
Fear
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Past Now
Economic theories built on
assumptions of efficient markets,
unlimited natural resources and
growing populations
Markets are inefficient
Limited resources, both natural and
economic
Ageing and shrinking populations
Economics
Technology/
Job markets
Society/
Politics
Rebalancing and Revolutions
Technology boosts productivity
Growth always creates new jobs
Wage growth and affordable
housing
Trade deals and globalisation
Automation/A.I./sharing economy
Jobless growth, income polarisation
and lower inflation
Low interest rates resource
misallocation low productivity
low quality & paid jobs
Phillips curve no longer working?
Asset appreciation > wage growth
Rising inequality Populism & more
inefficiencies / nationalism and
protectionism
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Page 25
Fear
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited
Past Now
Western powers influence /
dominate / dictate
Emerging Powers: China, India, Middle
East. Terrorism and nuclear threatsGeopolitics
Fiscal
policy
Monetary
policy
Rebalancing and Revolutions
Recession fiscal stimulus
multiplier effect
“Trickle Down”
Recession lower interest rates
credit growth higher
investment and consumption
High public debt limited room for
spending
Balance sheet recession investment
and consumption no longer responsive
to interest rates given over-leverage;
consumers look at permanent future
income: low interest rates depress
savings and spending
Low interest rates today
growth and inflation high
interest rates in the future
Low interest rates today asset
bubbles and growing inequality, wage
stagnation/hysteresis low interest
rates in the future
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Page 26
Fear
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
Blue-collar
workers
White-collar
workers
Blue-collar
workers
White-collar
workers
Creative
workers
Blue-collar
workers
White-collar
workers
Creative
workers
Workforce
100 years ago
Now Future
Automation
Information
Technology
Artificial
Intelligence
Machine
learning
3D printing
Sharing
economy
Ageing
population
Jobless growth
Structurally
lower inflation
Lower neutral
interest rate
Rising
inequality
Populism
More fiscal
spending
Universal Basic
IncomeSource: Algebris (UK) Limited
Rebalancing
and Revolutions
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Page 27
Inequality and the Politics of Rage
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Homeownership Education
Inequality Generational Divide
Wages/Income Wealth/Assets
Technology Globalisation QE/Monetary Policy
Politics
Health
Fear
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Page 28
Greed
QE, Wealth Distribution and the Inter-Generational Gap
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, “The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey Results from the first wave”, ECB Working Paper, March 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Total Financial AssetsDeposits Mutual funds Bonds SharesPension/ life insuranceOthers
16-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Median value of owned financial assets by age group, €000
Total Financial
Assets
Deposits Mutual
Funds
Bonds Shares Pension/
Life InsuranceOthers
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Page 29
Fear
Divided Kingdoms: Geographical Inequality
GDP per inhabitant by region in PPP, in relation to EU-28 average (2015)
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. Eurostat.
Note: As of 2014 for Albania, Norway and Iceland.
EU-28 Average = 100
< 75
75 – < 90
90 – < 100
100 – < 125
125 – < 150
>= 150
Data not available
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Page 30
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith, Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate, Bank of
England Working Paper No. 571, December 2016
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Now
Unexplained
Rising spread
Less public investment
Cheaper capital goods
Asian savings glut
Higher inequality
Demographic effects
Lower future growth
1990
-1%
-0.9%
-0.45%
-0.25%
-0.5%
-0.2%
-0.7%
-0.5%
-0.5%
Higher inequality
FearSocial and Corporate Inequality Lower Economic Growth
Neutral real rate in developed economies
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Page 31
Traditional Democracies Under Threat
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 – 2016 2006 - 2016 2006 - 2016 2006 - 2016
Full Democracies
Flawed Democracies
Hybrid Regimes
Authoritarian Regimes
Percentage world population living under:
Fear
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Note: Population from country aggregates as measured by the EIU’s Democracy Index
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Page 32
Number of instances of global natural disasters
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. EMDAT
Fear
Extreme Weather Events are More Frequent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1901 1924 1947 1970 1993 2016
Drought Earthquake
Landslide Volcanic activity
Wildfire Flood
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Page 33
Fear
QE
Pension
Overwriting
$45bn2
Rates
Investment
Grade Debt
Equity
Credit
Demand >
Supply for
Safe Assets
High Yield
Credit
Neg. Yielding Bond
Mass Increases
Short VIX
ETFs
$3.2bn1
Hunt for Yield
> Risky Assets
Real Estate, other
Illiquid assets
Equities (Public
and Private)
Yield and Spread
Compression
Low Vol.
Investment
Strategies
Overpaying Across
Asset Classes
Risk Parity
$600bn4
CTAs
$350bn8Equity Risk
Premium Lower
Term Premium
Vanishing
Bubbles?
Defaults
Postponed
Share
Buybacks
$495bn5
Vol Target /
Control
$360bn6
Risk
Premia
$250bn7
Vol Selling
Funds
$8bn3
Will The QE Bubble Unravel? Structural Financial Market Imbalances
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. 1 $3.2 billion in short-volatility strategies estimated from Bloomberg data. 2 $45 billion in pension short volatility overwriting programs estimated as of 2017 in Deutsche Bank’s 2017 Tail Risk Monitor. 3 $8 billion exposure from option writing funds
estimate from Macro Risk Advisers derivatives research by Pravit Chintawongvanich (April 7, 2017). 4 $400-600 billion estimate as of 2016 from Financial Times article by Makan and Wiggles (October 14, 2016) “Little Known Trading Strategy Exacerbates Market Turmoil”.5 $495 billion 2017 S&P 500 share buybacks estimate in Goldman Sachs “US Weekly Kickstart” (October 27, 2017) by David Kostin. 6 $360 billion exposure in Volatility Control Funds/Variable Annuity Funds exposure estimate based on J.P. Morgan Cross Asset Derivatives
Research Team research note (August 27, 2015) by Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan. 7 $250 billion exposure in Low Vol Risk Premia strategies estimated by Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott based on 2017 interview in Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.8 $350 billion AUM in Trend Following strategies/CTA based on J.P. Morgan Cross Asset Derivatives Research Team research note (August 27, 2015) by Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan.
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Page 34
Low Volatility and How Bubbles Look Like
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, Yale South Sea Bubble 1729 Project, Altas
Fear
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
T+0 T+20 T+40 T+60 T+80
Tulip mania (1934-1937)
South Sea Stock (1719-1720)
Nikkei (1984-1991)
Nasdaq (1995-2002)
BitCoin (2015-Now)
XIV (2016-Now)
Price Index vs Number of Months from the Start of the Bubble
(1636-1637)
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Page
50
500
5,000
1774 1794 1814 1834 1854 1874 1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994 2014
War of 1812
Civil War
WW I
WW II
Revolutionary War
US abandoned
the Gold
Standard
35
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Oregon State University.
Fear
Monetary Debasement, Economic and Social Crises in History
US Consumer Price Index, 1774 - 2017
log-scale
Classical Gold StandardBretton Woods
System
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Page
Fe
as
ibilit
y
37
Policy Measures Proposed Today
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Benefit
Hope
“Universal Basic Income”
(Switzerland, Sweden)
“QE for the
people”
(Italy, UK)
Tuition-free
university (UK)
“America first”
(United States)
“Take back Control”
(UK, other populism)“Partial basic income”
(Finland, Netherlands)
Trade
protectionism tariffs
(US / EU)
Rail & utilities
industries
nationalisation (UK)
Housing controls
for foreign buyers
/ speculators
(New Zealand)
Abolishment of
stamp duty for
first time home
buyers (UK)
Lowering
retirement /
pension age
(Italy, France)
Euro exit
(France, Italy)
Voluntary debt
defaults (Spain)
NAFTA exit
(United States)Labour market reforms
aimed at youth
unemployment (France)Tobin Tax
(Italy)
Workers’ re-
training
(Australia)
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Page 38
Policy Measures to Achieve Sustainability
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Initiatives
Fe
as
ibilit
yHope
Public Sector
Investment in research, education,
workforce re-training
Correct entitlements: link pension
liabilities to life expectancy
Financial system reform: introduce
debt flexibility, growth-linked bonds
Tax system reform: rebalance the
burden from income to assets.
Improve tax incentives for equity
funding
Private Sector
Improve skill retraining programs
Introduce alternatives to banks:
improve SME access to capital
markets
Consolidate banks
Revalue stakeholder corporate
model
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Page 39
Policy Measures to Achieve Sustainability
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.
Initiatives
Fe
as
ibilit
yHope
Monetary Policy
Stricter monitoring of money
creation by commercial banks
(i.e. banking & shadow banking)
Financial stability as
primary mandate
Monetary Policy Reform
European Union
Youth unemployment EU-wide
programs / supervision
Fiscal transfers
Common finance minister / budget
Uniform taxation systems
(i.e. end taxation tourism)
Common defence budget
Euro bonds or Blue/Red bonds
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Page 40
Hope
Source: World Bank. OECD. UNESCO. IIASA. WHO. Bourguignon & Morrison. Gapminder.
It is Not All Bad
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Page 41
Hope
Source: World Bank.
It is Not All Bad
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1. Financial system reform
Debt is not forever: ease the reduction of unsustainable burdens. Favour equity.
42
Hope
2. Reform pensions and entitlements
Link pensions to life expectancy, growth and market returns.
3. Reform monetary policy
Make financial stability a primary mandate, not a side game.
Central banks should take into account the long-term distortionary effects of their policies.
4. Improve productivity and rebalance opportunity
Investment in education, research and workforce re-training.
5. Fight inequality
Universal Basic Income and Inclusion Income do help, with incentives to prevent moral
hazard.
Conclusions
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Ulysses, The Sirens and Time Inconsistency
Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. “Ulysses and the Sirens”, Painting by J. W. Waterhouse, oil on canvas, 1891.
Hope
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Appendix
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Bibliography- Gallo A., How the American dream turned into greed and inequality, World Economic Forum, 12 October 2017
- Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area, Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva, 19 May 2017
- Hassan, F., di Mauro, F., Ottaviano, G. Banks credit and productivity growth, ECB Working Paper Series, February 2017
- Corlett, A., Clarke, S. Living standards 2017: the past, present and possible future of UK incomes, 31 January 2017
- Understanding Populism: Inequality by the Numbers, Blog post by Pushan Dutt (INSEAD Professor of Economics and Political Science), 16 December 2016
- Jarociński, M., Lenza, M., An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area, ECB Working Paper Series No 1966, September 2016
- Saito, I., Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan, IMF Working Paper 16/194, September 2016
- Democracy Index 2016: Revenge of the “deplorables”, The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2016
- Kuroda, H., “Comprehensive Assessment” of the Monetary Easing: Concept and Approaches, 5 September 2016
- Ball L., Gagnon J., Honohan P., Krogstrup S., What else can central banks do?, Vox, 2 September 2016
- Dauer U., German Savers Lose Faith in Banks, Stash Cash at Home, Wall Street Journal, 28 August 2016
- Jobst A., Lin H., The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits, IMF, 10 August 2016
- Stevens G., An Accounting: Address to the Anika Foundation Luncheon, 10 August 2016
- Gallo A., Our global financial system is broken. Here’s a plan for fixing it, World Economic Forum, 6 July 2016
- Williamson, S., Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2016
- Kuroda, H., Overcoming Deflation: Theory and Practice, 20 June 2016
- Corsetti, G., Feld P. L., Koijen R., Reichlin L., Reis R., Rey H., Weder di Mauro B.,Reinforcing the Eurozone and protecting an open society: Refugee bonds, 27 May 2016
- Haldane, A. G., The Great Divide, Bank of England, 18 May 2016
- Rajan R., Rethinking the Global Monetary System, Speech at the London School of Economics, 10 May 2016
- Jones, R., Innovation, research and the UK’s productivity crisis, The University of Sheffield, April 2016
- Standard & Poor’s, QE and Economic Inequality: The UK Experience, 10 February 2016
- Cochrane, J., Do Higher Interest Rates Raise or Lower Inflation, 10 February 2016
- Kothari, S.P., Lewellen, J., Warner, J. B., The behaviour of aggregate corporate investment, MIT, December 2015
- Borio, C., Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences, BIS, December 2015
- Gallo, A., Why ECB’s quantitative easing won’t work and how it can be fixed, Financial Times, 7 December 2015
- Blanchard, O., E. Cerutti and L. Summers, Inflation and activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications, IMF Working Paper No 230., November 2015
- Borio, C., Revisiting three intellectual pillars of monetary policy received wisdom, Luncheon address, Cato Institute, 12 November 2015
- Borio C., Gambacorta, L., Hofmann, B., The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability, BIS, October 2015
- Contessi, S., Kerdnunvong, U., Asset bubbles: detecting and measuring them are not easy tasks, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2015
- Belfied, Cribb, Hood, Joyce, Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2015, Institute for Fiscal Study, July 2015
- Gallo, A., Rethink needed for monetary policy role, Financial Times, 1 July 2015
- Haldane, A. G., Stuck, Bank of England, 30 June 2015
- Borio C., Persistent unusually low interest rates. Why? What Consequences?, BIS, 28 June 2015
- IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015
- Gallo, A., Walker, R., Tyrrell-Hendry, L., Popovic, M., Grant, A., Pan, T., The Revolver | Divided Kingdom: Britain’s future beyond the election, 14 April 2015
- Sigurjonsson, F.; Monetary Reform, A better monetary system for Iceland, Report commission by the Prime Minister of Iceland, 20 March 2015
- OECD (2015), Economic Policy Reforms 2015: Going for Growth, OECD Publishing, 9 February 2015
- Milburn, Elitist Britain?, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, 2014
- Kothari, S.P., Lewellen, J., Warner, J., The behavior of aggregate corporate investment, MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5112-14, 19 October 2014
- Jahan S., Mahmud A. S., Papageorgiou C., What is Keynesian Economics?, IMF, September 2014
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Bibliography- Carrol, C.D., Slacalek, J., Tokuoka, K. (2014) The Distribution of Wealth and the Marginal Propensity to Consume, ECB Working Paper No 1655
- Sharpe, S.A. and Suarez, G.A. (2014) The insensitivity of investment to interest rates: Evidence from a survey of CFOs, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, FRB Washington DC
- Rotman, D., How Technology is Destroying Jobs, MIT Technology Review, 12 June 2013
- Koo, R., The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics, Real-world Economics Review, issue no. 58, 2011
- Rajan, G. R., Let Them Eat Credit, New Republic, 27 August 2010
- Lewis, W. A., Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, May 1954
- Reich, R., The Big Picture: How We Got Into This Mess, And How Get Out of It. December 2017
- Hobbes, M., Millennials are Screwed. The Huffington Post
Algebris Silver Bullet Articles
- The Silver Bullet | 2018: Irrational Complacency, 12 December 2017
- The Silver Bullet | The Central Bank Bubble: How Will It Burst?, 31 October 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Interplanetary Bubbles, 21 September 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Currency Wars: The Inflation Menace, , 17 August 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Rebalancing and Revolutions, 20 July 2017
- The Silver Bullet | The Low Volatility Trap, 15 June 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Is the Reflation Trade Over?, May 22, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Europe’s Opportunity, May 4, 2017
- The Algebris View | Investing in the Time of Populism, Fiscal Excesses and the End of QE Infinity, April 20, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Introducing the Brexit Walrus, March 31, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Europe’s Long Way out of QE Infinity, March 23, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Don’t Fret about Frexit, March 8, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Greece: More Melodrachma, No Default, February 20, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | Don’t Give up on Europe, February 6, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | 2017: When Inflation Dreams Become Nightmares, January 19, 2017
- The Silver Bullet | 2017: The Movie, December 14, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Investing in the Time of Populism, November 15, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Trick or Tantrum?, October 31, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | The High Price of a Hard Brexit, October 12, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Investing when the monetary tide is turning, September 20, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Central bankers: the tide is turning, September 7, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Perpetual Motion, August 12, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | We are still dancing, July 14, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | The Divided Kingdom, June 28, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Brexit: it’s not EU, it’s me, June 13, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Trumponomics, June 1, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Brazil: The Caipirinha Crisis is Just Starting, May 17, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | China: Feeling the Stones of Japanification, May 4, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Alice and the Mad Interest Rate Party, April 19, 2016
- The Silver Bullet | Helicopter Money (that’s what I want), April 12, 2016
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Algebris* is a global investment manager with a historical focus
on the financial sector across the capital structure
Founded in 2006, Algebris has gradually expanded its expertise
and entered the global credit and Italian securities (equity and
credit) spaces to capture a broader set of value opportunities
25 Investment Professionals
150+ Years of Combined Experience
Diverse Strategies
Long Only and Hedged
* Algebris hereinafter refers to Algebris (UK) Limited
EUR 10.9bn
Regulated daily dealing funds and AIFs
AUM
A Global Asset Manager
11 Years
Successful Track Record in FinancialsBoston
Regulated by the SEC
LondonRegulated by the FCA
Milan
SingaporeRegulated by the MAS
5 Offices
Enabling 24h Coverage and Local Footprint
Introduction to Algebris
AUM data as of 3.12.2017 and across ten funds and a number of managed accounts.
Source: Algebris
Luxembourg
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