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The quality of age data from some recent Arab population censuses
First Conference of Al Khawarezmi in the Arab States
Ismail LubbadDoha, 6-8 December 2010
ContentsIntroductionCensus in ESCWA countries- An overviewObjectives, data source and methodologyResults
Age-sex reportingSex ratio with ageAge heaping - digit preference
Conclusion
Introduction
Importance of population census dataStock data for population estimates/projectionsData for sampling framesOnly source of data on small areas (localities)
Long history of census taking in the region
Quality of census data – rarely evaluatedImportance of age and sex data
Census taking in ESCWA countries
Table 1: Census taking in ESCWA countries
Sub -region Census Round 1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2014
Gulf Cooperation Council countries
6 7 7
Rest of ESCWA countries
6 6 3
Total ESCWA 12 13 10
Source: ESCWA calculation staff based on ESCWA counties information
Further information TF population census 2010: http://www.escwa.un.org/divisions/main.asp?division=sd
Objectives and Methodology
• Objectives: To examine the accuracy of age-sex reporting and the patterns of digit preference in censuses of population in (ESCWA) Arab countries.
• Source of data: Tables on age-sex reporting from the two most recent censuses - NSOs
• Methods: Descriptive analysis – common indices: UN age-sex accuracy index, Whipple-type indices and descriptive charts
Software: Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS)
ResultsTable 2: Age-sex non-reporting in population census in
ESCWA countries
Countries Census Round
1990Census
Round 2000Census Round
2010Bahrain 0.1% 0.00% …Egypt … … …Iraq 1.3% … …Jordan 0.11% 0.08% …Kuwait 0.30% 0.25%Oman 0.05% 0.04% …Palestine 0.05% …Qatar 0.03% … …Saudi Arabia … … …Sudan 0.1% 0.00% …Syrian Arab Republic … 0.35% …United Arab Emirates 0.00% … 0.09%Yemen … 0.06% …
Accuracy of age-sex reporting
• United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index measures sex-specific omission of persons in addition to age misreporting
• Based on 5 year age groups
Criteria of the U.N. INDEX
Under 20 → Accurate
20 to 40 → Inaccurate
Over 40 → Highly Inaccurate
UN age-sex Accuracy index Table 3: Results of UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index in
ESCWA countries (nationals only)
Age Ratio Score Sex Ratio
Score
Sex
Ratio
Age-Sex
Accuracy Index Males Females Bahrain (2001) 4.6 5.9 6.4 102.3 29.8Egypt (2006) 5.2 5.4 5.4 104.8 26.8Jordan (2004) 3.2 3.2 2.4 103.4 13.7Kuwait (2005) 3.3 2.2 3.5 97.7 16.1Oman (2003) 5.5 5.7 4.1 102.2 23.4Palestine(2007) 4.8 4.4 4.1 103.5 21.6KSA (2004) 4.6 4.3 4.6 100.6 22.6UAE (2005) 3.7 5.1 5 102.5 23.7Yemen (2004) 6.9 8.2 4.1 104 27.5
Sex ratio
1sex ratio
2 UNI 1 UNI 2
%
changes
Bahrain 102.3 101.8 35.4 32.5 -8%
Egypt 104.8 104.8 38.4 37.4 -3%
Jordan 109 103 33.5 16.9 -50%
Kuwait 99.6 97.7 38.4 18.9 -51%
Oman 103.3 102.2 51.3 38.5 -25%
Palestine 103.5 103 25.8 18.4 -29%
KSA 102 100.6 49.8 27.9 -44%
Syria 104.7 105.4 16.5 16.6 1%
UAE 102.3 102.5 43.5 37.6 -14%
Yemen .. 104 .. 39.1 -29%
Iraq 105.8 99.4 36.7 29.7 -19%
UN age-sex Accuracy index
UN age-sex accuracy index (cont…)
Patterns of sex ratio with age
Jordan 2004
90
95
100
105
110
115
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Patterns of sex ratio with age
Oman 1993
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Age heaping and digit preference
• Data required: Population by sex and single year age
• Index of measurement: Whipple's index
Criteria f the Whipple's Index <105 highly accurate
105-109 fairly accurate
110-124 approximate
125-174 rough
>175 very rough
Age heaping and digit preference• Table 4: Totals of Whipple and Myer's
Indexes in ESCWA countries
Whipple Index Myer's Index
Male Female Both sexesMale Female Both sexes
Bahrain 100 101 100 1.76 3.39 2.27
Palestine 104 106 105 2.11 3.50 2.79
Qatar 102 102 102 2.98 3.03 2.58
Syria 105 107 106 4.70 7.46 6.04
Yemen 249 271 260 43.46 51.26 47.19
Jordan 100 101 101 1.86 2.94 2.34
Kuwait 105 105 105 3.74 3.13 3.44
Population Pyramid in Yemen 2004
Population Pyramid in Syria 2004
Population Pyramid in Qatar 2004
Conclusion – Looking forward
• Preliminary results - PC 2010 will enrich the study and give a full picture;
• Improvement in age reporting in all the countries
• No problems in age heaping except for Yemen
• Age sex structure is considered inaccurate in a number of the ESCWA countries