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The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Ruth Naylor & Amir Jones
1. How conflict impacts on education
Targeted attacks on education
Direct damage to education
“Collateral damage”
Targeted attacks
Indirect damage
Direct damage to education
Targeted attacks
Forced displacementPublic health
Household labourReduced returns to education
Reduced expenditure (public & private)Reduced public capacity
Total impact
2. The human costs: out-of-school children
The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Key global statistics:
● 57 million out of school children (OOSC)
globally (primary school aged)
● 28.5 million of these live in conflict affected
countries (UNESCO)
● 2-3 million IDP and refugee children out of
school (primary school aged)
● Hundreds of thousands of students have
their education interrupted by targeted attacks
EMIS data, primary school aged
Survey data,ages 7-14
Country totals(33 countries)
39 million 90 million
Country totals, with sub-national estimates for India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan
28.5 million(UNESCO, 2013)
47.5 million
OOSC living in conflict-affected areas (sub-national estimates for all 33 countries)
11 million 24 million
Number of OOSC living in conflict affected areas
Sources: UIS and EPDC
The quantitative impact of conflict on education
Estimating OOSC due to conflictMulti country regression studies
• Shields and Paulson (2014)• Lai and Thyne (2007)
Compare enrolment rates and trends in conflict and
non conflict regions • NAR in NE Nigeria is 49%, compared to over 90% in the
south
Ask why their children are out of school• 16% of parents in S Kivu cited “fear of crime and
conflict” as the primary cause of dropout
Compare enrolment trends with conflict history• UIS (2010)• EPDC (2010)
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
DRC Battle deaths (UCDP)
DRC Out-of-school rate for children of pri-mary school age (%)
SSA Out-of-school rate for children of pri-mary school age (%)
DRC OOSC rates and conflict history
Sources: UCDP, UIS
Country Estimated number of OOSC (UIS definition)2011
Approximate proportion of OOSC that can be attributed to conflict
Approximate number of OOSC in 2011/12 due to conflict
DRC 3.5 million 10% to 20% 0.3 to 0.7 million
Nigeria 10.5 million <5% <0.5 million (2011 data)
Pakistan 5.4 million 15% to 50% 0.8 to 2.7 million
Total 19.4 million 5% to 20% (of total)
1.1 to 3.9 million
Estimates of OOSC due to conflict
3. The financial costs
The financial costs of conflict to education
Direct costs
• Cost of replacing destroyed and damaged infrastructure
• Cost of replacing damaged and looted equipment
• Cost of replacing lost teaching force
• Cost due to lost teaching time
Direct costs of targeted attacks, 2009-2012US$ million
DRC 26
Nigeria 6
Pakistan 101
Targeted attacks
The financial costs of conflict to education
Scale of “collateral damage” is far greater than cases documented in Education under Attack
• Cost of reconstructing primary schools destroyed by bombing 2003-2004 in Iraq ≈ $230m
• Cost of replacing damaged school infrastructure and equipment in Syria ≈ $1 to $3bn (Ndaruhutse & West 2015).
• During the Rwandan genocide, more than two-thirds of the teaching force were either killed or fled (Buckland 2005).
Economic impact of conflict through missed education
• Reduced enrolment and educational attainment lead to reduced GDP in long term (Burnett et al, 2013)
Estimates for Pakistan:• Long term cost of children out of school = $3bn• 1 year reduction in average education attainment
→13% reduction in per capita income
• We used our estimates of impact of conflict on education to estimate the cost of the long term economic costs of lost education due to conflict.
The financial costs of conflict to education
Summary of financial costs 2009-2012
DRC Nigeria PakistanDirect cost to the education sector of targeted attacks, 2009-2012
$26m $5.7m $101m
Long-term impact on national income of current OOSC due to conflict
$53-107m n/a $440m-1.5bn
Long-term impact on national income of reduced educational attainment due to conflict
$470m n/a $2.9bn
Long-term impact of direct and
indirect costs
Total direct costs
Direct costs from
targeted attacks
EUA evidence
Indirect costs
Collateral damage