The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011 · PDF file · 2015-05-246,8 M...

Christophe PILLOT [email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600

Battery Market Development for

Consumer Electronics, Automotive,

and Industrial: Materials

Requirements and Trends

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

5th Israeli Power Sources Conference 2015

Herzelia, Israel - May 21st, 2015

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market 2014 - 2025 • Forecasts & conclusions

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

The worldwide Battery market and materials

trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

2

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

3

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

170 M Portable

PCs

230 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2014

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2014

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

4

2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

5

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

2015: Estimations


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel


1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

2015

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI


SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2015: Estimations


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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Herzelia, Israel


IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

7

Battery market in 2014 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 20

Billion for

“other”

applications


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

8

(1) 2015 estimation data

(2) Cell level

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 00020

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh

13 600 M$ (2)

CAGR 2004/2014

+21 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

CAGR 2004/2014

+20 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

9

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Automotives Tablets Power tools

Camcorders Digital camera MP3

Games E-Bikes Others

5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh

13 300 M$ (2)

(1) 2015 estimation data

(2) Cell level


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

10

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

18650 oversupply ratio is

decreasing thanks to TESLA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Ove

r su

pp

ly R

atio

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Standard Demand TESLA

Production Capacity Oversupply ratio

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

MAXELL

SONY

PANASONIC

SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011:

from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2014: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

11

CATHODE

105 OOO T in 2014

Revenues: 2,5 B$

CAGR 04/14: +16%

ANODE

57 000 T

Revenues: 0,8 B$

CAGR 03/13: +14%

ELECTROLYTE

44 000 T

Revenues: 0,68 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR

695 M m²

Revenues: 1,15 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

13,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,7 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

19,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER

7 100 Tons

Revenues: 0,2 B$

CAGR 08/13 : 15%


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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May 21st, 2015

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NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

BY CHEMISTRY

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand)

12

(…)

LEADERS:

Internal 3% Nichia

13%

Umicore 16%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6%

Reshine 16%

L&F 16%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 10%

LCO – >45 KT (2014) NMC1 – > 35 KT (2014)

Nichia 11%

Umicore 24%

Others 5%

Internal 11%

L&F 6%

ShanShan 8%

Reshine 3%

Other China 8%

TODA 4%

SUMITOMO 16%

NKS 4%

LMO – > 18 KT (2014) LFP – > 10 KT (2014)

Nichia 7%

Nippon Denko

8% Other

5% Internal

5%

JGC 16%

Qyanyun 11%

ShanShan 9%

Other China 31%

Reshine 8%

Tatung 12%

Aleees 18%

Other Japan

5%

Internal 6%

Clariant 5%

A123 10%

Formosa 8%

Valence 6%

Others 30%

1- Including NCA

SUPPLY

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

4

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2014: > 100 000 Tons

13

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary 2013-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market

LCO 36%

NMC 25%

NCA 9%

LMO 20%

LFP 10%

Cathode active materials in

2025: > 300 000 Tons

LCO 26%

NMC 25%

NCA 14%

LMO 9%

LFP 26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LCO NMC NCA

LMO LFP China (%)


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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14

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

> 55 000 TONS IN 2014

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2011

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Meso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014

15

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon

Soft Carbon

Graphite

Capacity (/g)

400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2012->2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA

HITACHI HITACHI BTR

& many others

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

TOSHIBA

Others

ARTIFICIAL

MCMB

NATURAL

Amorphous

METAL

LTO

Natural Graphite

67%

Artificial Graphite

24%

MCMB 2% Amorphous

5%

Si or Sn Type 1%

LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2014)


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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SEPARATOR MARKET

MAJOR PLAYERS

Separator market in volume (Mm²)

by suppliers – CAGR 04/14: +16%

Separators market shares in 2014 in

volume – > 650 M m²

16 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

ASAHI

CELGARD

TORAY

UBE

SK

Sumitomo

Others

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mm

²

In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy

Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery

separator business

ASAHI 25%

TONEN 21%

SUMITOMO 5%

ENTEK 3%

SK 12% Jinhui

2% TDK 2%

Fengfan 1%

Other Wet 3%

CELGARD 11%

UBE 5%

Green 3% Senior

4% Other Dry 3%

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)



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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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Herzelia, Israel

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

43 500 TONS IN 2014

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2004/2014: +23%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2014

17

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC TabletsPower tools E-bikes HEVPHEV EV Others

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong


Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang

JINNIU

UBE 4%

Mitsubishi Chem 13%

In-house 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 8% GTHR

14%

Mitsui 3%

Jinniu 8%

Cap Chem 15%

ShanShan 8%

Soulbrain 5%

Tinci 6%

Others 4%


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trends 2014-2025

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LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2005-2014 Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2014

18

Ube

Mitsubishi

In-House

Tomiyama

PANAX (2)

GTHR

Mitsui

BASF (Merck, Novolyte)

Jinniu

Capchem

Shanshan

Soulbrain

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2005

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Ton

s

Ube Mitsubishi In-House

Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu

Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain

(2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

19

CELLULAR PHONES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Cyl. 25%

Pris. 25%

Lam. 50%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2014


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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20

PORTABLE PCS

FORECASTS 2010-2025

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical

Cyl. 80%

Pris. 1%

Lam. 19%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2014-2025 – Almost stable


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000

2005

2010

2013

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Others

Household

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

21

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 14-25: + 10%


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

0

50

100

150

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,

US $

MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation

worldwide: From 2013 to 2014

Oil price decrease but HEV sales

increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%

and EV by 60%

22

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide

1960-2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15 G

aso

line

Pri

ce –

US$

/ G

allo

n

Cru

de

Oil

Pri

ce -

US

$ /

Bar

rel

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2012 2015 2020

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n (

g/km

)

Europe USA Japan China


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014

2 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2014

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2014

23

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

4

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales

Growth 2013-2014: +5% From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV


[email protected]

Perspectives du marché mondial des batteries

Mai 2015

CONFIDENTIEL pour

24


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

P-HEV sales

Others

Volvo

Mitsubishi

Ford

Toyota

GM Volt,Ampera 0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EV sales

Others

CHINA

VW

BMW

Honda

Toyota

Tesla

Renault

Smart

Ford

MITSUBISHI

NISSAN

US 41%

JAPON 25%

EUROPE 22%

CHINE 5%

Others 7% US

25%

JAPAN 11%

EUROPE 26%

CHINA 31%

OTHERS 7%

P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)

+28%

+58%


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

25

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

0 2000 4000 6000

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG ChemNissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)BYD (2013 - 2015)ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments: 150 $ / kWh

TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

26


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

SAFETY ISSUES

27

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

28

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

29 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

30 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2014-2020

LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

31

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2015* 2020* 2014*

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

2 2,2

3,2

5

0,135 0,17

0,4

0,65

0,25 0,35

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2014 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV

P-HEV

HEV

S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

32

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could

change the game

0,9

1,9 2,1

3,2

5

0,13 0,16

0,38

0,62

0,17 0,27

0,75

1,1

0,3

1

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2014 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV in China

P-HEV in China

HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +16% / S2:+22%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +11% / S2: +13%

33

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025M

Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto

LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV

LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

S2 (China Explosion)

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change

the game


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

34

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

35

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

< 44%

MICRO HYBRID

> 50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

2000 – 2025

Rechargeable battery market,

M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

Rechargeable battery market,

M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

36

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiCd NiMH except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB Portable

LIB Auto LIB Others


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

“OTHER APPLICATIONS”

10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

37



For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries

1- Pack level

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Lead Acid LIB


> U

S$ 1

0 B

> U

S$ 7

B


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS

Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)

38

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

Portable: from 28 to 83 GWh

Automotive: from 6 to 50 GWh

« Others »: from 5 to 30 GWh

2013 -2025


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trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

TAKEAWAYS

39

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%)LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%)Others

25 B$

54B$

64 B$

83 B$

> 100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

14

12

52

32

(CAGR 2014-2025)

16

(Pack level) 4,3

60B$


[email protected]


trends 2014-2025

5th Israeli Power

Sources Conference

May 21st, 2015

Herzelia, Israel

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

40

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