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The Referendum in French Somaliland: Aftermath and Prospects in the Somali DisputeAuthor(s): I. M. LewisReviewed work(s):Source: The World Today, Vol. 23, No. 7 (Jul., 1967), pp. 308-314Published by: Royal Institute of International AffairsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40394001 .

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THE WORLD TODAY July 967ended ntheformal nnouncementfEasternNigeria's ecession,t sclear hat ivilwarmay esult. ll he igns ince 1March,when t-Col.Ojukwu ssuedhisRevenueCollection dict,orderinghatduties ndtaxes ayable oFederal ollectorsn theEastmust epaidfrom AprildirectlyotheEasternNigerianreasurynEnugu, ndicatedhat eces-sionwasonly matterf ime.nthemaze f egal efinitionsnhisEdict,Ojukwuwas careful o avoidaffectingirect il payments, hich repayable otheFederal uthoritiesnLagos.No one n hissenseswouldbe anxious odisrupthe oyaltiesndoperationsf an industryhoseexpenditurensideNigerian1966 lone mountedoover40m.,mostof t ntheEast tself,nd which aidanother 20m. ndirect oyaltiestotheFederalGovernmentn thatyear, fwhich heEastreceived e-tween 0and66per ent.On 21June, owever, jukwu igned furtherdecree mpoweringim otake ver lloilroyaltiesntheEasternRe-gion, herebyeighteninghedanger f civilwar.It is by no means certain hat the Northern-dominatedederalGovernmentndtheNorthernegional overnmentillhave he olidsupportf heWest ndMid-WestRegionsn amilitarytrugglegainsttheEast. The suspicions stronghat heemergencyrovisionsfthe17March decreewere nsertedythe FederalMilitary overnment,backed y tsNorthernegionallly, gainstheoppositionfboth heWest ndtheMid-West.Equally,t ooks s ifLt-Col.Gowon's actionon27May ndeclaring state femergencyhroughoutigeria nd nabolishingheSMC wastaken ithergainsthe ppositionf heWest-ern nd Mid-WestMilitary overnorsrwithoutonsultinghem. othhadstated ubliclyhat heywouldnot upportnyFederalGovern-ment ction o use forcegainstheEast.Accordingly,owon's ctionwasunconstitutionalnder heprovisionsfthe17Marchdecree, ut,ofcourse,hat ounts orittlenthepresentituationnNigeria.

The Referendum n FrenchSomalilandAftermathnd prospects nthe Somali dispute1.m. ewisThe referendumn19MarchnFrench omaliland,rance'sastmain-landAfricanossession,as gain rought orld ttentionobear ntheproblem osedbythecontinuedismembermentftheSomalination,

DrLewis sReader n theDepartmentfAnthropologytUniversityollegeLondon.308

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FRENCHSOMALILANDan ssuewhich asnowbecome erhapshemostntractablef ll nter-territorialisputesnAfrica.undamentallyhis roblemtems romhefacts fSomali erritorialispersion,he rbitraryelineationffrontiersin he olonial eriodnNorth astAfrica,nd hediametricallypposedbasesof statehood fthe SomaliRepublicon theone hand,and ofEthiopiandKenya nthe ther. espite he ormer'sniquehistoryndcenturies-oldmhara ore-nationalism,thiopia ndKenya an nthecontext ftheir isputewith omaliabe regardeds prototypesfthenewAfricantate.Like most f heirounterpartslsewherenthe on-tinent,ach s a patchworkf differentribes nd anguage-groupsndseeks o achieve ationalntegrationndunity hroughirmlyentralizedcontrolnd a passionatettachmento itsfrontiers.n sharp ontrast,theSomaliRepublic s a Statebaseddirectlypontheapplicationftheprinciplef self-determinationoa single eople, heSomali, nlythree-quartersfwhom re nfact ontained ithinhis thnic tate. orthose uarterf million o-nationalsmmediatelycross hefrontiernNorthernenya, nd thefurther illion r so ineastern thiopia, heexistencef heSomaliRepublics a constantnspirationothe ssertionof ndependentomalinationalismndan nvitationomergewith t nfullyealized tatehood.

But,ofcourse, o the rulers fEthiopia ndKenyaand to modernnationalistpiniongenerallyn theseStates,theirnomadicSomalipopulationsepresentnly neofmany iverse lements hichmust ewelded irmlyogetherf tabilitynd realnationhoodre obe achieved.From heir oint fview, he pecial ircumstancesf heSomali nd oftheir artiallyealized tatehoodonot ntitleomaliminoritiesutsidetheRepublic oany pecial ispensationordothey rovide precedentfor urthernification.o concede hiswouldbe to nvite nd encour-age therthniceparatist ovementshichwould ndangeruchfragileunitys hasbeen ttained. hus, neffect,he ighto elf-determinationexistsnlyna colonial ontext. ence, f nFrench omaliland fricanopinion enerallyeemsmore avourableo theSomalinationalistam-paign here,his sonly ecause he erritorysstill French olony. ndeven o,theresults f the recent eferenduma 60percentmajorityagainstndependencend nfavourf continued rench ule have ofar ot ed omuch f noutcry,xcept,f ourse,n he omaliRepublic.In the ight frecentventsnthis inyRed Sea French nclave,withits opulationf ome125,000lmostvenly ivided etween omali ndkindred far ribesmen,hemost urprisingeature fthis esultsnotitsendorsementfFrench olonial tatus, ut ratherhat hiswasnotaffirmedoreoverwhelmingly.rior o1963, heSomalis,who re on-centratedntheurbanport fJibutinduntil ery ecently eremorepoliticallyctive ndnationalistn heirspirationshan heir far eigh-bours o thenorth, eld themajorityf seats n the ocal territorial309

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THE WORLD TODAY July 967assembly. ecognizinghe rowing enace f omalinationalismo heircontinuedresence,heFrench uthoritiesn 1963adjusted he ocalvotingonstituencieso secure majorityfAfar epresentativesntheassembly.he previouslynderprivilegedfar,many fwhom eemedto ook otheFrench sa safeguardgainst omalidomination,ould, twascalculated, e counted n tosupporthe nterestsfFrance.Thusin he ocal ssembly seats reheldbyAfar,1bySomali, byFrench-men, nd1byan Arab there re several housandocalArabs,mainlymerchants).he localgovernmentouncil eflects similar reponder-anceofAfar ver omalimembers.Support or hepro-Frenchfar gainstheSomaliwasvery videntinthepreparationsor hereferendumf March1967.Voterswerere-quired o havecompleted minimum f threeyears esidencen theterritory;ndon thepretexthat heyacked his ualificationsmanys8,000Somalis rereportedo have beenexpelled nd thuspreventedfrom articipatingn thereferendum.fficial rench eports utthenumber fdeportationst over ,000, ndshortlyfter hereferendumdisclosed hat newpenalcampwasbeingbuilt ohouse some4,000furtheromalipreviouslyeld na deportationampnearJibuti.t isimpossibleo knowwhatproportionfthese omaliswerequalifiedovote;but a considerableroportioneem nfact o have held Frenchidentificationapers s residentsfthe erritory.hat sperhaps venmoresignificants that therewere no reported eportationsintoEthiopia) fprotestingfar ribesmen. oreover,lthoughheSomali-dominatedapital fJibutiontains ver alf rench omaliland's opu-lation t wasnot llowed o contributesmuch s a quartero the otalregisteredlectorate9,660 utof39,024).Thedisproportionateeight-ing hus llowed o the argelyuralAfar ecured hemandate or on-tinued rench ule nd defeatedheSomalivote orndependence.SubsequentFrenchmanuvres,loaked hough heywere n loftymetropolitanhetoric,eem qually esignedominimizehe nfluenceof he lready educed omali ommunitynthe erritoryndtopromoteitsAfar haracter.he officialame, ote es omalis, asbeen growingsource fembarrassment.here s now tendencyo refero tsimplyasJibuti,ndthe ocal erritorialouncil, oycottedy tsSomalimem-bers, asrecentlyoted ochange hename o FrenchAfarCoast*.Allthis,with he ir of egality hich heresults fthereferendumive othesemoves, s designed o isolate nd insulate heremainingomalicommunityrom heheady urrentsfnationalismcross heborderntheSomaliRepublic.The Afar eem, ndeednot urprisingly,nly oo anxious ooccupythevacuum eftnemploymentswell as politics ytheeclipse ftheSomalicommunity.ndeed MrAliArif, ormer ice-Presidentfthegovernmentouncil nd eader f heAfar emocratic ssembly,aid n

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FRENCHSOMALILANDa statementfter hereferendumhat llthe omaliswhovoted ornde-pendencehould emade o eave he erritory.The Somalis*,eadded'have lways eenour adversariesndweintend oreplace hemnalladministrativend technical osts.We havealready egun o replacethemn thedocks fJibuti.We will ontinue hisprocessnallfields.'EvenLe Monde,whosereportsftheconduct fthereferendumereremarkablyncritical,egardedhisdeclarations worrying*.Interests fEthiopia nd Somalia

Ethiopia's nterestn the futurefFrench omaliland ependsonseveral actors.irst,he ays laim othe erritoryn historicalrounds.Second, heAfar ndpart ftheSomalioftheCote pillover nto hersoil,and indeedoccupy n extensive artof HararProvince. unda-mentally,owever,er nterestseconomic. he Franco-Ethiopianail-way rom ddisAbabatoJibuti,espiteheroad ystemo theEritreanports,s still ital o her xpanding oreignrade. he SomaliRepublic'sinterest as analtogetherifferentasis.Although ibuti astradition-ally rovided labourmarket or omeof henorthernegion's urpluspopulation,nd there s some ivestockrade hroughhatport, t isdoubtful hether reerccess o twouldgreatlylter xistingrade at-terns n theRepublic,particularlyince the northernegionportofBerberasinprocess fdevelopment.or theRepublicwhat sreallytstakes ethnicolidarityndthefurtherancefPan- omaliunification.It sthus nthehope hat rench omalilandorpart f t)will ventuallyunitewith heRepublic hat he omaliGovernmentscurrentlyeekingtodiscredithe onduct fthereferendumhich, otwithoutustifica-tion, t regardss a fraud nd a farce,ndthroughheU.N. andtheOrganizationfAfrican nity ressingor hefulliberationf his esi-dualcolony.t remainso be seen,however,owmuch upportheRe-publicwillbeabletomuster.orEthiopiasclearly ellpleasedwith hepresentituation,ndmoregenerallytseems o bewidely onsideredthathe ontinuedresencefFrance as t east hemeritfpreventingthe hreatenedirect onfrontationetween he wo ountries.This,however,s only temporaryespite, ot final olution. uchrevenue s accrues o Francefrom heprosperous ort whichhas aseparateudget) fJibutimust eset gainsthemountingontributionsofFrench idtothe erritorys a whole; ndtheresno ndicationhatFrance roposesostay n ndefinitely.ndeed, henewConstitutionortheCote, nderwhich he fficefGovernorecomes hat fHighCom-missionerndthe lected overnmentouncilwillhavegreateruthorityundera local President,eems to envisage gradualdevolution fauthority.hus eventually,ndperhapswithins short spaceas twoyears, hequestion fthis mallcountry'suture illagainbecomepressingssue.

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THE WORLD TODAY July 967Presentndicationsuggesthat heFrenchmay epreparinghe erri-toryor ventualnionwith thiopia. fcourse hiswould equire, re-sumably,omenew est fpublic pinion. ut heprevailingssumptionseems o be that heAfar, ne ofwhosetraditionallyostpowerfulsultanatesies nEthiopia,would hoose his llegiancenpreferenceojoining omaliaf his hoicewere resented.otwithstandinghe ome-times trained elations etween ome of thoseAfarunderEthiopianrule ndthe uthorities,his ssessments not mplausible.t leaves utof ccount, owever,wo onsiderations.ne s that hoseAfarwho renow omingncreasinglyoholdpoliticalnd conomicowermay efarfrom nxious osurrenderheir ew- onpositionsnthisway, articu-larlyince heyreMuslims ndhave he xamplefEritreantheir wndoorstep.he other onsiderationsthat he ssumptionfunionwithEthiopiacompletely isregardshe nature nd direction f Somaliaspirationsn the Cote.This, nfact,s therealdangern thepresentsituation. he French uthoritiesnd theEthiopian overnmenteemalike o be proceedingn theassumptionhatSomali nterestsn theterritoryan be totallygnored. et, nreality,ven f Somalipoliticalinfluenceas beenfor hemomenthrustnto econd lace, tstill xistsas a force o be reckoned ith, nd it is optimisticn theextremeoimaginehattwillnot oonregaints wn ocalmomentumndrespondto externalncouragement.Ethiopia's omewhat istful ttitude ere,however,s veryunder-standable. orthe xistencenJibutif Somali ommunityedded othenationalistolicies ftheSomaliRepublic mountso anAchillesheel. n fact,with tsmilitarynd airforcesessthan quarters strongas those fEthiopia,t s through ibutihat heRepublic anhopetoexertmost ffectiveressuren tspowerfuleighbour.ndherewhatsatstake s notmerely rench omalilandtself,utalso thecontestedSomali reas fEthiopia. hisconsiderationerves oreinforcehe m-portant oint hat, owevermuch thiopiamight ish t obeotherwise,French omalilandspart f he omalidisputendhastobeconsideredinrelationo theproblem osedbySomalinationalisms a whole.The whole Somali issueThefuturefFrench omaliland ould hus rovidehekey oa moregeneral esolutionfthewholeSomali ssue, t eastbetween thiopiaandtheRepublic.Butonly, fcourse,f hepartiesothedisputewerewillingodiscuss he ssues nvolvedealistically.nfortunatelyhereslittlendicationhat his s thecase atthemoment.n somecirclesnAddisAbaba t eems obeconfidentlyssumedhat rench omalilandwillfall ntoEthiopia'sapinduecourse, ndthat heSomaliswho areclaimed o be subvertinghe asternGalla nEthiopiamustbe contentwithwhat hey ave ntheRepublic. heymust enouncell nterestn

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FRENCH SOMALILANDfurthernificationnd be careful ottoprovoke thiopia nyfurther.(Here, in appreciatinghesensitivityometimesxpressed o RadioMogadishu's mharicnd Gallaprogrammes,thas to bebornenmindthat everalGalla eaders recurrentlyntrial or heir llegednvolve-mentn the ttemptedoup t theendof astyear.)On theother and,many omalis eemto be convincedhat uchguerrillaactics s thosecurrentlymployedn Northern enya, ndsporadicallyn theEthio-pianOgaden,with uch everages canalso be exertedhrough ibuti,will n he ndproducehe esired esult. ll thismplies waiting ame,often ith hefurtherxpectationhatwhen heEmperor'songreignends nd a newregime mergesnEthiopia onfusionndchaoswillpro-vide circumstancesonducive o the realization f the Somaligoal.Alternatively,t s argued hat he uccessor egimenEthiopiawillbemore ympathetico Somali ims.These both eemfrom heir ifferentoints fviewproblematic,ottosayoptimistic,ssessments. evertheless,hefascination hich heyand imilarvaluationsxert elps oexplain he ackofurgency hichexists, articularlyn theEthiopian ide,towards nydown-to-earthdiscussionf hessues etweenhe wo tates.More onciliatorypiniononboth idesenvisagesomeform feventualnter-territorialelation-ship,perhaps venfederation,etween he tworivals.Butwhilethemajorityf hose omaliswho hinknthese ermsannot egardhis s aliveproposal ntil omalia'sdemocraticonstitutionndparty oliticalprocesses re paralleled n Ethiopia, ome Ethiopians onsider hatcloser ssociation ith omaliawouldbring ifficultiesnddangers argreaterhan hose nvolvednthe ncorporationfEritrea.ndeed, heextentf uspicionndmistrustnboth ides s uch hat, hile omalisregularlyeek odiscreditheir oliticalivals y ccusinghem f akingEthiopianribes, herecent tudentemonstrationsttheUniversityfAddisAbabawere ttributed,n oneof hemany umoursurrentt thetime,oSomalinstigation.et, theart,espitehe stensibleifferencesinreligionndculture oth ideshavemuchncommon. ere t houldberecalledhat, nlike hepositionnregardoKenya,despite ll theirdifficultiesthiopia ndthe SomaliRepublic tillmaintain ulldiplo-matic elations ith achother. ecentlyooAl taliahasbeenpermittedtoopen directetflightervice etweenMogadishundAddisAbaba.And, lthoughoomuch hould ot emade f t, mong oth he omaliandEthiopianntelligentsiatthepresentime ne ofthemostwidelyreadbooks s a popular ndhighlynaccurateecent istoryfEthiopiawhichwes tswidereadershipo ts riticismf hepresentegime.In thesecircumstancesnd with ts aid to theextremelyfficientSomali police forceonlyrecently utstrippedy Russia'smilitaryassistanceo thearmy,t is quitefutile or heAmericanmbassynMogadishu o lecture heSomaliGovernmentn thedangers f its

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THE WORLD TODAY July 967commitmentopan- omalinationalism.hisserves opurpose.Whatisneeded s an initiative hichwillbring thiopianndSomalirepre-sentativesogether,ndhere,nrelationoJibuti,rance asa responsi-bilitywhich he shouldface.So far,however,heonlyforeigntatewhich eems o havetaken ny ommendablectionnthisdirectionsthe udanRepublicnd ts ffectivenesss amediatoras obeevaluatedinrelationo ts ownborder roblems ith thiopia nd ts nterestntheMuslimpopulationfEritreandthe eparatist ovementhere.Finally,heres thequestion ftheextremelyitter omaliguerrillacampaignforindependencen NorthernKenya. Here the SomaliGovernmentasrepeatedlyroposed alkswhichKenyahasrejected;perhaps artlyecause talso serves thernterests,enya eemsdeter-mined nachieving militaryolution orwhat s essentially politicalproblem. ecent alk nMogadishu fpossiblemoves owards resump-tion fdiplomaticelations ould,fpursued, ring ritainack nto hewhole angledssue.Andwith er urrent ilitarynvolvementnKenya,thiswould no doubtbe acutely mbarrassing.mbarrassmentpart,however,his ould ead tosomenewpressureornegotiation,lthoughBritish overnmentsn thepasthavebeenonly ooready oshrug ffSomaliproblems n one pretextr another. ltimately,resumably,what s needed s for ome ointAmerican nd Russian nitiative ithFrench articipationobring ll theparties ogetherna real effortoreach settlement.Perhapst sUtopian ohopeformuchpressureornegotiationromsuch nunlikelyssortmentfparties. etAmericandRussia othhaveinterestsn thethree ountries oncernedn thedispute,which rescarcelyikelyobe advancedf t continues ogathermomentumndfinallyruptsn a generalonflagration.here s alsothehopethat oththeUnitedNations ndthe OAU will ncreasinglyoncernhemselveswith heproblem ndperhaps enerateufficientnterestomake tssettlementorthwhileo thosePowerswho arereallyn a position oexert ome nfluence.n this espect ecentventsnFrench omalilandhave t leastfulfilledheuseful unctionfmakinghebasic ssues n-volvedmorewidely nownndmorewidely nderstood.his snow llthemore mportantince hepresentMiddleEast crisismaywellhavelocalreverberationsntheHornofAfrica, here here redistinctaral-lelsbetween thiopia's ositionndthat f srael. ndeed, n Somaliaitself,herecent lectionfthemilitantan-Somali remier,r Abdi-rashidAliShirmarke,s thenew Head of State nplaceoftheretiringPresident danAbdullaOsmanmaybe a strawnthewind.

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