THE RISKS OF LIFEVideo

Conference #3Scams & Cons

Psychic PowersPsychic Powers

How does this card trick work?

The shuffle

Cards are ordered 1234512345

Cutting the cards does not change the cyclic order.

For example, a cut between 2 and 3 will move the card order to 3451234512, but

the original 1234512345 is still there.

The 5 Card Piles the secret move

Assume cards are in their original order……..

Counting 5 cards gives 12345 in one pile and 54321 in another.

This is a PALINDROMIC STACK (values in one pile are exactly reversed in the other)

The SwapsThe number of swaps is always one less

than the number of cards in the pile.

Consider only 3 card values.

You could do 2 swaps in the first pile OR 2 swaps in the second pile

OR 1 swap in the first pile and 1 swap in the second pile

2 swaps in the first pile

1 3

2 2

3 1

2 swaps in the first pile

3

2 2

3 1

1

2 swaps in the first pile

3

2

3 1

1

2

2 swaps in the first pile

3

2

3 1

1

2

2 swaps in the second pile

1 3

2 2

3 1

2 swaps in the second pile

1

2 2

3 1

3

2 swaps in the second pile

123 1

32

2 swaps in the second pile

123 1

32

1 swap in the first pile1 swap in the second pile

1 3

2 2

3 1

1 swap in the first pile1 swap in the second pile

3

2 2

3 1

1

1 swap in the first pile1 swap in the second pile

2 2

3 1

1 3

1 swap in the first pile1 swap in the second pile

2 2

3 1

1 3

Maths behind the Scam

This will work any number of cards N that are placed in order in palindromic stacks.

When we make N-1 swaps, as one card is moved down its equivalent rises in the

other stack so that the ones meeting on top of the piles match.

Monty Hall ProblemMonty Hall Problem

Probability puzzle based on an American Gameshow

‘Lets Make a Deal’

Named after the host

‘Monty Hall’

Numbers Monty Hall 2009

Monty Hall ActivityMonty Hall ActivityIn pairs, use your cups and prize to simulate the Monty Hall problem. Try

swapping and not swapping as many times as possible. Decide on one of the following conclusions:

To increase your chances of winning you should:

Swap?

Not Swap?

Does it matter?

Monty Hall ActivityMonty Hall ActivitySwap Not Swap

Win

Lose

Results (% of wins)Results (% of wins)Wydean St

JosephsKarachi

Swap

Don’t Swap

BBC Horizon, Broadcasted 1st April 2009Alan and Marcus Go Forth and Multiply

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

DON’T SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

DON’T SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car

DON’T SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car LOSE

DON’T SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car LOSE

DON’T SWAP

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car LOSE

DON’T SWAP

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car WIN

Scenario 2 Car

Scenario 3 Car

SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car LOSE

DON’T SWAP

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car WIN

Scenario 2 Car LOSE

Scenario 3 Car

SWAP

Swap or Not?Swap or Not?

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car LOSE

Scenario 2 Car WIN

Scenario 3 Car LOSE

DON’T SWAP

CUP 1 CUP 2 CUP 3

Scenario 1 Car WIN

Scenario 2 Car LOSE

Scenario 3 Car WIN

SWAP

THE SYSTEM

Channel 4 Broadcast. 1st February 2008. Derren Brown, The System.

81 people 81 people

279

3

93

3 3

13

8127

3

7776 people 7776 people

1296216

6

21636

6

366

6

77761296

6

61

6

Channel 4 Broadcast. 1st February 2008. Derren Brown, The System.

Pyramid SellingPyramid SellingCompulsory InvestigationCompulsory Investigation

Lindi’s Women’s Networking Scheme

You invest £3,000 with the promise of £24,000 in return!

How does this scheme work?

What is the problem with this scheme?

Why is it illegal?

Video Conference #4

Be Prepared!(Thursday March 25th) Follow-up work Presentations

Mathionaire (part 2: £1,000 - £32,000) Remember to look at the compulsory investigation question on the website as one question will be based on it.