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The road from Kyoto to Copenhagen: how can we ensure sustainable growth?
Geraldo Martha, Jr.Geraldo Martha, Jr.
Embrapa Estudos EstratégicosEmbrapa Estudos Estratégicos
e Capacitaçãoe Capacitação
IFPRI Meeting, Bold actions for stimulating inclusive growth, June 2 2010
Source: MCT (2009).
Brazilian GHG Emissions
Brazilian Mitigation Actions
Source: MCT (2009).
Composition of the Brazilian GHG Emissions
Source: MCT (2009).
R&D at Embrapa: some examples in sustainable technologies / agricultural systems
(focus on mitigation actions)
• technical and economic potential do mitigate technical and economic potential do mitigate emissions;emissions;• co-benefits that improve agricultural productivity and co-benefits that improve agricultural productivity and resilience (food security, adaptation);resilience (food security, adaptation);
Target 1: 15 M ha of degraded areas (- 83-104 M mt CO2-e)(- 83-104 M mt CO2-e)
Target 2: 4 M ha of ICLS+forests (- 18-22 M mt CO2-e)(- 18-22 M mt CO2-e)
Avoided Deforestation
Martha & Vilela (2009).
1 ha of degraded pasture (0.4 hd./ha)
Environmental Commitement (key-part of all actions)
Rotação lavoura-pasto
Anos
75 76 78 82 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
Mat
éri
a o
rgân
ica
(%)
0
2
3
4
5Rotação contínua de soja/milhoPasto depois de lavouraLavoura depois de pasto
Sousa et al., 1997
Corn/soybean rotationPasture following cropCrop following pasture
So
il o
rgan
ic m
atte
r co
nte
nt
(%)
Carbon mitigation x ICLS
Continuous crop Crop/livestock systems
Banco de sementes de plantas invasorasWeeds x ICLS
P2O5
kg.ha-1.yr-1 Corn-soybean1 Crop-pasture2 Increase
100 44 85 93%
200 40 82 105%
400 35 70 100%
800 40 62 55%
Average 40 75 88%
1 - 10 yrs. Soybean, 1 yr. corn, 4 cycles corn-soybean, 2 yrs. corn, 1 yr. soybean. 2 - 2 yrs. Soybean, 9 yrs. Brachiaria , 2 yrs. Soybean, 2 cycles corn-soybean, 5 yrs. Brachiaria .
P apparent recovery (% of the P applied)
Sousa et al., 2007
Nutrient-Use Efficiency x ICLS
Barioni, Sainz & Martha, Jr. (unpublished)
Pastoral Systems x GHG Emissions
Martha Jr.; Barioni; Sainz, 2009 (unpublished)
Return to investment and Financial Needs, 2009-2030
Target 3: 5.5 M ha of BNF (- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)(- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)
With Bradyrhizobium
Without Bradyrhizobium
Anual economy:~ US$ 5 billion
Target 4: 8 M ha of No-Till Planting (- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)(- 16-20 M mt CO2-e)
R&D at Embrapa: some examples in sustainable technologies / agricultural systems
(focus on adaptation actions)
• assign high priority to mitigation actions that have assign high priority to mitigation actions that have strong adaptation benefits;strong adaptation benefits;
Drought tolerant wheat
Drought susceptible wheat
New cultivars
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
New cultivars
MacaúbaMacaúba (Acrocomia aculeata)(Acrocomia aculeata) Pinhão-manso (Jatropha curcas)Pinhão-manso (Jatropha curcas) Capim-elefante (Pennisetum purpureum)Capim-elefante (Pennisetum purpureum)
Improved Soil Conservation Techniques
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
61%
29%
8%
1%
1%60
0
15
30
45
75
Withgypsum
withoutgypsum
Dep
th (
cm)
D
30%
22%
18%
18%
12%
Sousa et al. 1995
Relative distribution of corn roots in a clay oxisol profile after phopho-gypsum application.
Soil quality
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
Soil quality
Sousa et al. (2006).
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
Agro-Ecological Zonning System
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
Improved Water-Use Efficiency
SUPERFICIALSUPERFICIAL CENTER PIVOTSCENTER PIVOTS
MICRO-SPRINKLERMICRO-SPRINKLERDRIPDRIP
Development and Management of Efficient Development and Management of Efficient Irrigation SystemsIrrigation Systems
Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the Tropics
Training & Education
C e r r a d o s
Technology transfer for ICLS
focus
Best management practices
Final Comments
• There are clear opportunities for accommodating food and biofuel expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado in a sustainable way;
• Public-private partnership played a very important role in the development of the Brazilian Cerrado agriculture and its importance is strengthened in face of future food, energy and environmental challenges;
• Intensifying pastoral systems in a sustainable way, and promoting initiatives on capacity strengthening, will be of central importance for a low-carbon agriculture;
• A lag between adoption and the realization of productivity benefits may create an adoption threshold, especially when a farmer is uncertain about future productive benefits or when he highly discounts future benefits. Farmers must have access to adequate financing to avoid exacerbating this threshold effect;
• Successful scaling-up depends upon multi-stakeholder approaches. Knowledge exchange, capacity development, technology transfer and well-functioning input and market chains are key-components to foster the adoption of sustainable technologies.
Final Comments