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The Role of Agriculture in Hunger and Poverty Reduction
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
DFID, London, September 27, 2010
IFPRI, September 2010
Key messages
Global food security is under stress
Agricultural growth is crucial for reducing hunger and poverty
Agricultural research is key
The CGIAR and IFPRI are well-positioned to effectively address global challenges
IFPRI, September 2010
The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Source: Based on data from FAO 2009; 2010 and author’s calculations
Number of hungry people, 1990-2015
946
584
IFPRI, September 2010
Pressures on food security and agriculture
Population growth and demographic changes
Competition for land and water
Climate change
Energy and biofuels
Food price volatility, etc.
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Source: M. Rosegrant 2009
NCAR A2a
E.g. Climate change pressure on agriculture
Climate change impact on production: Rainfed maize, 2050
Global production = -16%
IFPRI, September 2010
Agriculture creates wealth and reduces poverty and hunger by:
Raising farm incomes, esp. for smallholders
Creating farm employment
Stimulating the rural nonfarm economy through production and consumption linkages
Pushing down the prices of staple foods to the benefit of poor net food buyers
Source: OECD 2006
IFPRI, September 2010
Agric-led growth is more pro-poor than non-agric-led growth
Agric-led growth scenario
Non-agric-led growth scenario
Ethiopia (2003-15) -1.7 -0.7
Ghana (2003-15) -1.8 -1.3
Kenya (2003-15) -1.3 -0.6
Rwanda (2003-15) -1.4 -0.8
Uganda (1999-2015) -1.6 -1.1
Zambia (2001-15) -0.6 -0.4Source: Diao et al. 2010
Poverty-growth elasticities
IFPRI, September 2010
The composition of agric. growth is important
Calorie-growth elasticity
Poverty-growth elasticity
Maize -1.9 -1.5Sorghum & millet -1.5 -1.5Pulses & oilseeds -1.8 -1.4Roots -1.1 -1.5Horticulture -1.0 -1.4Livestock -0.7 -1.3Export crops -0.8 -1.4
Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010
Poverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07)
IFPRI, September 2010
Ghana Uganda Tanzania Ethiopia China India Thailand
Returns to agriculture or rural income(local currency/local currency spending)
Agric. R&D 16.8 12.4 12.5 0.14 6.8 13.5 12.6
Education -0.2 7.2 9.0 0.56 2.2 1.4 2.1
Health 1.3 0.9 n.e. -0.03 n.e. 0.8 n.e.
Roads 8.8 2.7 9.1 4.22 1.7 5.3 0.9
Ranking in returns to poverty reduction
Agric. R&D n.e. 1 2 n.e. 2 2 1
Education n.e. 3 1 n.e. 1 3 3
Health n.e. 4 n.e. n.e. n.e. 4 n.e.
Roads n.e. 2 3 n.e. 3 1 2
Investment in agric. R&D has high returns
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009 Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated
IFPRI, September 2010
Big food security successes are driven by agric. innovation
Asia: Green Revolution (1965-85)
China: High-yielding hybrid rice varieties (1977-now)
East and Southern Africa: Breeding improved maize varieties (1965 to 1990)
India: Dryland millet and sorghum varieties (mid-1960s-now)
Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda: pest- and disease-resistant cassava (1971-89)
Philippines: Breeding improved tilapia (1988 to 1997)Source: Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009
IFPRI, September 2010
Research-based innovations can:
Sustainably increase yields
Enhance the nutritional value of food crops
Provide adaptive buffers against global shocks
Source: FBAE 2009Source: Chris Stowers/PANOS
IFPRI, September 2010
Why CGIAR reform?
With rapid global changes, past CGIAR successes are not enough to meet future challenges
CGIAR’s new mission goes beyond productivity and technology to include hunger/nutrition, poverty, gender, and natural resource management
Increased quantity and quality of investment in the CGIAR is needed
Reform will help harmonize and maximize funding for priority research areas, simplify structures, and
reduce transaction costs
IFPRI, September 2010
The CGIAR is well positioned to contribute to:
Global efforts to foster food production and food access
Sustainable management of natural resources and the environment
Reduced poverty and hunger in both rural and urban areas
IFPRI, September 2010
New CGIAR structure
3 pillars: • CGIAR Fund• Consortium• Centers
4 bridging mechanisms: • Strategy and Results Framework
• Performance Agreements for Consortium research programs
• Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
• Independent Science and Partnership Council
IFPRI, September 2010
Consortium research programs (CRPs)
1. Integrated agricultural systems for the poor
2. Policies, institutions, and markets for the poor
3. Sustainable production systems for food security
4. Agriculture for improved nutrition and health
5. Durable solutions to water scarcity and land and ecosystem degradation
6. Forests and trees
7. Climate change and agriculture
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Increasing agricultural R&D: Allocation for poverty minimization
R&D allocation(mil. 2005 $)
in # of poor (mil.)
2008-20202008 2020
SSA 772 3,565 -170.0
S Asia 908 3,856 -177.2
E & SE Asia 1,956 3,266 -65.1
N Africa & W Asia 546 722 -1.3
L America 957 1,038 -0.8
TOTAL 5,139 12,446 -414Source: Nin Pratt and Fan 2009
IFPRI, September 2010
Role of IFPRI’s research
Policy solutions for food security, agriculture, rural development, and improved resource allocation
Improved policy environment for technological developments of other CGIAR centers
IFPRI leads CRP2: Policies, Institutions, and Markets to Strengthen Assets and Agricultural Incomes for the Poor
IFPRI and ILRI co-lead CRP4: Agriculture for Improved Health and Nutrition
IFPRI, September 2010
The conference will: bring together information on how to strengthen
linkages among agriculture, nutrition, and health
identify “best practices” in policies and programs
further knowledge and build consensus on priorities for appropriate action
facilitate networks amongst stakeholders
18
Improving Policymaking Capacity in Agriculture and Food Security at the
Country Level
Margaret McMillanDivision Director
Development Strategy and Governance Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
DFID, London, September 27, 2010
Country Strategy Support Programs(CSSPs)
• Research• Capacity Building• Impact Evaluation
IFPRI, September 2010
CSSP Framework
Country Strategy Support
Program • Program Leader (Sr. Research Fellow)• Postdoctoral Fellows• RAs• Local support• DC-based support
Ministries• Timely, policy
relevant research results
• Improved access to information and data
• Policy dialogue
Local think tanks, national
research institutes
• Capacity building• Collaboration
• Sharing lessons across countries
Universities• Collaboration
• Sharing lessons across countries
Civil society• Farmers
• Local Businesse
s• NGOs
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Offices, CSSPs, and future CSSPs around the world
CSSPs
Upcoming CSSPs
IFPRI offices
IslamabadDhaka
Kinshasa
Kathmandu
Phnom Penh
Potential CSSPs
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Innovative policy-relevant research
IFPRI, September 2010
Capacity building
IFPRI, September 2010
Cross-regional mutual learning
CAADP and Its Role in Promoting Agricultural Development in Africa
Ousmane BadianeDirector for Africa
International Food Policy Research Institute
DFID, London, September 27, 2010
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Carry out comprehensive stocktaking
Develop strategy and outcome scenario
Create detailed baselines
Develop guidelines for best practices
Create knowledge platform
Build capacities for replicability
Laying the foundations for evidence-based planning, review and learning
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
National Rural
57.6
63.4
37.240.7
34.938.5
42.446.6
30.934
Current PSTA II Vision- 2020PSTA I/CAADP MDG1-2015
Poverty outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda
Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, August 2010
Whe
at
Maiz
e
Paddy
rice
Sorgh
um
Irish
pot
atoe
s
Sweet p
otat
oes
Cassa
va
Oth
er ro
ots
Pulses
Veget
ables
Banan
as
Fruits
Oil s
eed
Coffe
e
Gre
en te
a
Oth
er e
xpor
t cro
ps0
5
10
15
20
25
UNDER PLANS growth MDG15 growthMDG20 growth
Growth outcomes under investment plans: Rwanda
IFPRI, September 2010
IFPRI, September 2010
Building analytical capacities