The role of e-bikes in future mobilityKevin Mayne
Development Director ECF
Chief Executive Designate CIE
Published by ECF on behalf of companies that currently support the ECF
Cycling Industry Club and have taken the initiative to create Cycling
Industries Europe in 2019.
ECF gratefully acknowledges financial support from the European Commission.
Since 2011
• The Cycling Industry Club has supported the work of the European Cyclists Federation
• Together we have raised over 5 million Euros to support ECF’s work
• As a result:• The EU has the fastest growing and most profitable e-bike market in the world• We have an EU Cycling Strategy that plans for a 50% growth in cycling• We have released over 1.5 billion Euro in EU funds for cycling investments, mainly in
infrastructure which will grow the market further• We have created structures and projects to promote and support innovative cycling
sectors including cargo bikes, e-bikes, tourism and public bike sharing• We are changing policies and laws in favour of cycling across the world • We directly improved the impact of national cycling advocacy organisations in over
20 countries
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
Why study the future?
• Vision
• Opportunity
• Practical – what are the others seeing?• Investors
• Regulators
• Competitors
• Customers
5
6
7
9
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
Global megatrends
Social1. Diverging global population trends2. Towards a more urban world3. Disease burdens and pandemicsTechnological4. Accelerating technological changeEconomic5. Continued economic growth?6. An increasingly multipolar world7. Global competition for resources
Environmental8. Growing pressures on ecosystems9. Severe consequences of climate change10. Increasing environmental pollutionPolitical11. Diversifying approaches to governance
19 disruptive scenarios• Assisted living• Bioeconomy• Cheap renewable energy• Continuous cyberwar• Defeating communicable diseases• Ubiquitous expert systems• Emotional intelligence online• Human organ replacement• ICT-based security defence • Low carbon economy
• Material resource efficiency• Nano to macro integral
manufacturing• Nature valued• Precision medicine • Reframing work • Smart sustainable mobility • The electrosphere of sensors• A more diverse food supply system • A new knowledge system
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
EU prediction
More than technology
• Systemic changes• Complex solutions – shared, electric, connected, recyclable…
• Blurring – physical, digital, biological…..
• Packages and platforms of regulation, services, products …..
• Expectation change• Consumer expects aggregated digital services
• Suppliers want integrated, automated, SMART supply chains
• Regulators will impose complex compliance
Challenges for cycling in new mobility
• Industrial•Emotional•Technological•Economic•Political•Organisational
19
Market view of industrial impact
Market value (Bn Euro)
Global Revenues (Bn Euro)
Ford 40.4 35.3
Uber 61.9 6.5
Mobike 2.6 0.6
Shimano 11.0 2.5
Giant 1.4 1.7
Accell 0.6 1.1
25
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
E –bikes offer more than user choice
• Industrial
•Emotional
•Technological
•Economic
•Political
•Organisational
27
E-bikes build on market acceptance
28
E-bikes solve societal challenges
E-bikes solve societal challenges
32
• Source: Ursala Lehner Lierz, velo:concult
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
• ECF + CONEBI
= €2.5 million
– Source: Corporate Europe Observatory
36
EU prediction
European Cycling Strategy for industry• Current EUCS (16 pages)
• Innovation• Manufacturing• Supply Chain• Standards and quality• Workforce development• Trade/competition policy
• Industrial strategy (Potential)• Future of advanced manufacturing• Process innovation• Materials innovation• Digitalization and connectivity • Electro-mobility• Next generation vehicles• Resource efficiency (energy and
materials) • Smart Innovation Clusters• ……..• ……..
Mobility
Tourism
Jobs and growth
Health
Cities
Infrastructure
Road Safety
Air quality
Incentives and tax
Science and research
Cargo biking
Bike sharing
Industrial
Technology
Intelligent transport
Innovation
Workforce
New materials
Manufacturing
SME development
Supply chain
Unite the Cycling Industries
• Bikes and parts - mobility, family, leisure, sport, tourism, adventure, logistics, manufacturing, distribution, retail, sharing, leasing, repair, recycling
• Cycle logistics, couriers, pedicabs, post
• Financial services, insurance, leasing, incentives
• Digital – apps, counters, traffic management, data collection, training aids, management systems, connectivity
• Tourism – trips, hotels, bike hire, guides, transport, trail centre operators
• Infrastructure, construction, design – cycle paths, bridges, cycle parking
• Consultancy - research, data, analysis, marketing
• Human resources - training, education, coaching, sports management, trail builders
• Entertainment and media - events, races, sponsors, teams
• Electrical engineering, batteries, power, electronics, materials science, raw materials
•Future
•Mobility
•E-bikes
Thank youKevin Mayne
Development Director ECF
Chief Executive Designate CIE
Published by ECF on behalf of companies that currently support the ECF
Cycling Industry Club and have taken the initiative to create Cycling
Industries Europe in 2019.
ECF gratefully acknowledges financial support from the European Commission.
