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and then…. environmental change : land degradation, Pollution, Climate change….

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fostering rehabilitation and conservation of degraded ecosystem functions,

to realize flood control, mitigate soil erosion, alleviate land degradation, combat sand storm generation and desertification, address conservation and sustainable use of

biodiversity, increase storage of GHGs in terrestrial ecosystems.

China’s nationwide land conversion program offers a unique China’s nationwide land conversion program offers a unique opportunity for estimating the direct and indirect value of opportunity for estimating the direct and indirect value of Greenland ecosystem services, which include functions of Greenland ecosystem services, which include functions of vital importance to society.vital importance to society.

Through discontinuing cultivation on steep slopes and Through discontinuing cultivation on steep slopes and conversion into forests or grasslands, the program aims to:conversion into forests or grasslands, the program aims to:

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““Grain for Green”Grain for Green”China's National Land Conversion ProgrammeChina's National Land Conversion Programme

• In 1999: three pilot provinces(Gansu, Sichuan and Shaanxi)

• In 2002: State Council extended GFG to 20 provinces; by now largest environmental conservation program

Contains about 5.3 mill. ha Involves: more than 400 counties,

5700 townships, 16 mill. farmers

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REPORTS ONGFG

IMPLEMENT-ATION

COUNTYSTATISTICAL

DATA 2000

3

SLOPEDISTRIBUTION IN

CULTIVATED LAND

2

ADMINISTR. UNITS

LAND COVER

SOIL

CLIMATE

ELEVATION

GIS

1

PRODUCTION &YIELDS OFGFG LAND

7

NPV OFSOCIAL COST

OF GFG PROGRAM

11

Steps in GFG Land Valuation MethodologySteps in GFG Land Valuation Methodology

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AEZ LANDPRODUCTIVITY

(RAINFED, IRRIG.)

5

COST OFESTABLISHMENT &MAINTENANCE OF

VEGET. COVER

10

•PRODUCTION•CULTIVATED LAND•RAINFED, IRRIG.•AVERAGE YIELD

4

LAND TYPES:IRRIGATED,

RAINFED,GFG LAND6

GANSU1997 I-OTABLES

8

CONSTRAINEDI-O MODELANALYSIS

9

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PopulationPopulation 25.625.6 millionsmillions

Total AreaTotal Area 40.440.4 mill. Hamill. Ha of Totalof Total- Grassland 12.9 mill. ha 32.0 %- Forestland 4.7 mill. ha 11.5 %- Not used/usable 16.4 mill. ha 40.6 %- CultivatedCultivated 5.05.0 mill. hamill. ha 12.4 %12.4 %

- slopes 15 - 25º 1.1 mill. ha22.3%

- slopes >25 º 0.3 mill. ha5.5 %

- by 2003 idled 0.4 mill. Ha(30%)

Grain ProductionGrain Production 7.57.5 mill. tonsmill. tons- Wheat 3.0 mill. tons- Maize 2.0 mill. tons

Gansu Province – Some Basic DataGansu Province – Some Basic Data

CHINAGRO GIS Layers - Gansu Province

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• A regional Input-Output (I-O) model was developed to estimate the secondary effects of land use changes.

• Involves obtaining data on the sectoral distribution of local purchases and sales to final demand of every sector of the economy.

• Regional I-O model was constructed using published data of 1997 (Gansu Statistics Bureau, 2000).

• The original model includes 124 economic sectors.

• 5 in agriculture, 84 in industry, 1 in construction, 9 in transport and communication, and 25 service sectors.

• “Final use” comprises of six categories:peasant, non-peasant, government consumption, fixed investment, inventory changes, and net exports.

• The 124 industrial sectors were reduced to 14 sectors.

Regional Economy ModelRegional Economy Model

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Annual Social Cost of GFG Land ConversionAnnual Social Cost of GFG Land Conversionin Gansu Province in Gansu Province

Per Hectare ($) Total (mill. US $)

A. Reduced return from crop production 219 298

B. Secondary effects on other sectors 175 238

C. Maintenance of vegetative cover 5 7

Total Social Cost (A+B+C) 399 543

55%

44%

1%

Primary

Secondary

Veg. Cover

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• GFG program is now in full swing, pursuing multiple objectives of environmental rehabilitation, poverty alleviation, excess supply management

• Study shows significant social costs for restoring Greenland ecosystem functions

• Government plays crucial roles in combating environmental degradation:

Acts as trustee of natural resourcesActs as trustee of natural resources Sets rules of land conversion program expressing social Sets rules of land conversion program expressing social

willingness-to-paywillingness-to-pay Organizes scientific support and technical backstoppingOrganizes scientific support and technical backstopping Coordinates across sectors and administrative levelsCoordinates across sectors and administrative levels Establishes legal frame and enforces environmental regulationsEstablishes legal frame and enforces environmental regulations Fosters public participation and creates enabling environmentFosters public participation and creates enabling environment Monitors progress and evaluates impactsMonitors progress and evaluates impacts

GFG Policy ConsiderationsGFG Policy Considerations

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

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