The Role of High-Performance Computing in Industry: Customer Perspectives and Market Analysis. Prepared for: NSA Prepared by: Debra Goldfarb Vice President, Workstations and High-Performance Systems December 7, 1998. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
International Data Corporation • 5 Speen Street • Framingham, MA 01701 http://www.idc.com The Role of High- The Role of High- Performance Computing in Performance Computing in Industry: Customer Industry: Customer Perspectives and Market Perspectives and Market Analysis Analysis Prepared for: NSA Prepared for: NSA Prepared by: Debra Goldfarb Prepared by: Debra Goldfarb Vice President, Workstations Vice President, Workstations and and High-Performance Systems High-Performance Systems December 7, 1998 December 7, 1998
Transcript
International Data Corporation • 5 Speen Street • Framingham, MA 01701
http://www.idc.com
The Role of High-Performance The Role of High-Performance Computing in Industry: Computing in Industry:
Customer Perspectives and Customer Perspectives and Market AnalysisMarket Analysis
Vice President, Workstations and Vice President, Workstations and High-Performance SystemsHigh-Performance Systems
December 7, 1998December 7, 1998
The Role of High-Performance The Role of High-Performance Computing in Industry: Computing in Industry: Customer Customer Perspectives and Market AnalysisPerspectives and Market Analysis• AgendaAgenda
» Executive summaryExecutive summary» Business dependence on HPCBusiness dependence on HPC» Future demand characteristicsFuture demand characteristics» Reliance on Japan for HPCReliance on Japan for HPC» Future applicationsFuture applications» Government roleGovernment role
• HECC commissions IDC to undertake a study focusing on the current and projected use and importance of the most powerful high-performance computers in the industrial sector.
• The study had three major objectives. – Gain an understanding of the industry’s current and future
requirements for computers to help solve the most demanding problems.
– Identify interdependencies between high-end HPC and business, economic, and societal advancement.
– Analyze the dynamics in the HPC market, identifying future growth potential and future risks.
Voice of IndustryVoice of Industry
““The high performance computing industry The high performance computing industry in the United States today appears to be in the United States today appears to be almost as if someone hit the pause button. almost as if someone hit the pause button. We’re seeing a reduction in innovation at We’re seeing a reduction in innovation at the processor level and a tendency to follow the processor level and a tendency to follow a single manufacturer or Intel. If we lose a single manufacturer or Intel. If we lose this advanced HPC platform we stand on, this advanced HPC platform we stand on, innovation begins to slow down.”innovation begins to slow down.”
Voice of IndustryVoice of Industry
““It is absolutely unthinkable that the U.S. should It is absolutely unthinkable that the U.S. should give up its leadership of HPC. Innovation and give up its leadership of HPC. Innovation and technology leadership are what U.S. industry is technology leadership are what U.S. industry is famous for. We’re the innovators. We’re the famous for. We’re the innovators. We’re the leaders. Our HPC technology leadership helps leaders. Our HPC technology leadership helps drive our IT industry leadership. It’s enabling drive our IT industry leadership. It’s enabling other industries to be competitive and to let other industries to be competitive and to let something like this go, it just doesn’t make any something like this go, it just doesn’t make any sense …”sense …”
Voice of IndustryVoice of Industry
“You can’t buy your infrastructure from someone else. You really have to own it—create it… It’s got to be protected… What if all your medicine came from another country, or all of your food came from another country? Or how about this question...What if all your oil was coming from another country--and then all of a sudden they decided that the prices were too cheap--so that they would have to reduce supplies to increase price. I would hope our politicians would know the answers to those questions. Aren’t those pretty obvious? You’ve got to own some of your future.”
Executive SummaryExecutive Summary
• High-end HPC users: High-end HPC users: – Are very concerned about the state of U.S. HPC Are very concerned about the state of U.S. HPC
industryindustry– See U.S. leadership in HPC as highly related to See U.S. leadership in HPC as highly related to
U.S. industrial leadership U.S. industrial leadership – Perceive U.S. economic and societal Perceive U.S. economic and societal
advancement advancement dependentdependent upon high-end HPC upon high-end HPC – Believe government needs to advance the Believe government needs to advance the
technology and help provide access to the technology and help provide access to the highest capability tools highest capability tools
– User community feels they have limited ability User community feels they have limited ability to influence government or industry; they feel to influence government or industry; they feel isolatedisolated
• Primary barrier:Primary barrier: Lack of business and Lack of business and engineering management priority for investment engineering management priority for investment in high-end HPC in high-end HPC
• Industrial HPC users will buy Japanese if no U.S. Industrial HPC users will buy Japanese if no U.S. alternative exists despite recognition of alternative exists despite recognition of significant negative impactssignificant negative impacts
Key Findings - cont’d Key Findings - cont’d
• Scientists and engineers with a requirement for Scientists and engineers with a requirement for specialized scientific computing are:specialized scientific computing are: – Very concerned about the viability of the U.S. high-end HPC Very concerned about the viability of the U.S. high-end HPC
industry and the potential negative impact on their competitive industry and the potential negative impact on their competitive positionposition
– Key industries with concern: automotive, aerospace, Key industries with concern: automotive, aerospace, pharmaceutical, chemicalpharmaceutical, chemical
• Those pursuing MPP/scalable architectures are Those pursuing MPP/scalable architectures are less concernedless concerned– Petroleum, electronics, aerospace (some applications), Petroleum, electronics, aerospace (some applications),
entertainment, financialentertainment, financial
Key FindingsKey FindingsBusiness Dependence on Business Dependence on High-End HPCHigh-End HPC• Consensus that high-end HPC is Consensus that high-end HPC is
fundamentalfundamental in driving innovation into in driving innovation into product development, creating process product development, creating process efficiencies, and in advancing scientific efficiencies, and in advancing scientific understanding.understanding.
• Primary benefit:Primary benefit: Provides critical time-to- Provides critical time-to- solution advantage that enables being solution advantage that enables being “first to market.”“first to market.”
HPC Linked to Global Competitive Position
10
Value to IndustryValue to Industry
The value of HPC in analyzing compounds is very dramatic. It would cost about $50,000 per compound to analyze in a lab. Computationally, we can do it for about $3,000. Turnaround time in a lab is about nine months; on a computer, it is less than one week.
If you can advance a drilling date for a pipeline connection by days, and then look at the impact of that change on the capital investment curve, it can be huge. Changing the slope of that curve by a few percent, over a 10-20-year period will have a tremendous dollar impact on us. Reducing cycle time is one of the key business drivers for us.
Value to IndustryValue to Industry
• “Solving the simulation problem well is easily worth a billion dollars or more a year to our company.”
• “A die for a stamped metal part can cost $1 million. In addition, the costs for stopping an assembly line due to a broken die or to problems associated with the design can be as much as $100,000 per minute. Through simulation and modeling, engineers can identify design problems prior to casting the die. The pay back on this ability alone has been enormous.”
HPC’s Key Impact HPC’s Key Impact Reduction in Time to MarketReduction in Time to Market
Product Development Process
Preparation/Delivery
Without/
ConceptDevelopment
Prototype/Physical Testing
ManufacturingDesign
Final
HPC
Time to Market
WithHPC
HPC-SupportedSimulation
Time Savings
Key FindingsKey FindingsFuture High-End HPC Demand Future High-End HPC Demand CharacteristicsCharacteristics• Today’s HPC architectures do not meet Today’s HPC architectures do not meet
tomorrow’s performance requirements.tomorrow’s performance requirements.“Current Science/Eng. Problems Need More!”
““We’ve been actually fairly saddened by the fact that We’ve been actually fairly saddened by the fact that there hasn’t been much done in the last few years with there hasn’t been much done in the last few years with the high-end. The high-end is drying up. It’s the high-end. The high-end is drying up. It’s unfortunate. The biggest barrier to the high-end of the unfortunate. The biggest barrier to the high-end of the market from our perspective is that they’re simply not market from our perspective is that they’re simply not available. That’s the biggest barrier. We can’t buy a available. That’s the biggest barrier. We can’t buy a machine with enough power. Cost would of course be a machine with enough power. Cost would of course be a consideration, but we would evaluate the cost based on consideration, but we would evaluate the cost based on the power of the machine and what it could do for us.”the power of the machine and what it could do for us.” (Automotive)(Automotive)
Key FindingsKey FindingsFuture High End HPC Demand Future High End HPC Demand Characteristics Characteristics (Cont.)(Cont.)
• Users are alarmed with the projected design points of future systems (designed around Users are alarmed with the projected design points of future systems (designed around mid-range problems and not the most mid-range problems and not the most demanding problem set).demanding problem set).
• ASCI-class systems are not considered a viable solutionASCI-class systems are not considered a viable solution– ExperimentalExperimental– Theoretical vs. actual performance gapTheoretical vs. actual performance gap– High riskHigh risk– Limited, if any softwareLimited, if any software
• Majority of respondents are faced with scientific / Majority of respondents are faced with scientific / engineering problems demanding 10 to 1,000x engineering problems demanding 10 to 1,000x performance.performance.
““Vehicle synthesis, multi-system simulations — where you have Vehicle synthesis, multi-system simulations — where you have multiple links and interdependencies to systems. We would use this multiple links and interdependencies to systems. We would use this for optimization as well as exploratory problems where we are for optimization as well as exploratory problems where we are trying to push new limits.” trying to push new limits.” (Automotive)(Automotive)
““10X would allow us to make fifty million compounds accessible; 10X would allow us to make fifty million compounds accessible; that is to compute them, store them, etc. That’s four times what’s that is to compute them, store them, etc. That’s four times what’s previously known. So that’s interesting but it’s not as interesting previously known. So that’s interesting but it’s not as interesting as forty times or fifty times. 40X would allow you to ask and as forty times or fifty times. 40X would allow you to ask and answer a lot of questions about this molecular diversity.”answer a lot of questions about this molecular diversity.” (Pharmaceutical)(Pharmaceutical)
Key FindingsKey FindingsReliance on Japan for High-End HPCReliance on Japan for High-End HPC• Most said that barring government restrictions, they would buy the best tool Most said that barring government restrictions, they would buy the best tool
available for their needs — regardless of the source.available for their needs — regardless of the source.• However … most recognized significant implications to the loss of U.S. However … most recognized significant implications to the loss of U.S.
leadership in high-end HPC.leadership in high-end HPC.
““If Japanese manufacturers maintain their investment in supercomputers, given the trade If Japanese manufacturers maintain their investment in supercomputers, given the trade sanctions imposed today, we will suffer economically.”sanctions imposed today, we will suffer economically.”
Open, but Concerned
Key FindingsKey FindingsUser Concerns: User Concerns: Japan as HPC LeaderJapan as HPC Leader
• Ecosystem migrationEcosystem migration -- The scientific / -- The scientific / engineering ecosystem includes a tight engineering ecosystem includes a tight community of scientists, engineers, community of scientists, engineers, supercomputer suppliers, ISVs, and others supercomputer suppliers, ISVs, and others that enable science and engineering to that enable science and engineering to advance. Supercomputer capability migration advance. Supercomputer capability migration to Japan will disrupt these ecosystems; to Japan will disrupt these ecosystems; related skills may migrate to Japan.related skills may migrate to Japan.
Significant threat to U.S. technology leadership
Key FindingsKey FindingsUser Concerns: User Concerns: Japan as HPC Leader Japan as HPC Leader (Cont.)(Cont.)
• Security riskSecurity risk -- High risk of losing industrial -- High risk of losing industrial secrets to Japanese companies. secrets to Japanese companies.
• Equal accessEqual access -- U.S. scientists will not have early -- U.S. scientists will not have early access to leading edge HPC systems. access to leading edge HPC systems.
• Opportunity lossOpportunity loss -- Japan may gain an edge in -- Japan may gain an edge in breaking into early markets.breaking into early markets.
• Loss of impactLoss of impact -- U.S. scientists and engineers -- U.S. scientists and engineers will have less influence on supercomputer will have less influence on supercomputer design.design.
Key FindingsKey FindingsHPC Advancement and HPC Advancement and Business/Economic GrowthBusiness/Economic Growth• Industrial leadershipIndustrial leadership
– Auto industry embraced simulation and Auto industry embraced simulation and modeling to regain competitive footing modeling to regain competitive footing with Japanwith Japan
– Rapidly evolving bioscience sectorRapidly evolving bioscience sector• Information technology industry leadershipInformation technology industry leadership
– Government investment in advanced HPC Government investment in advanced HPC technology results in commercial IT product technology results in commercial IT product advances downstreamadvances downstream
• EnvironmentEnvironment– Ecosphere modeling to evaluate impact of Ecosphere modeling to evaluate impact of
fluorocarbons on atmospherefluorocarbons on atmosphere
HPC Impact: Drives U.S.Leadership
Key FindingsKey FindingsHPC Advancement and HPC Advancement and Business/Economic Growth Business/Economic Growth (Cont.)(Cont.)
• SafetySafety– Automotive simulated crash tests increase safety and Automotive simulated crash tests increase safety and
reduce morbidity and mortalityreduce morbidity and mortality• Health CareHealth Care
– Vascular simulation to understand heart disease and Vascular simulation to understand heart disease and cardiac processescardiac processes
Next Generation Applications:Next Generation Applications:ExamplesExamples
• AutomotiveAutomotive– Full fidelity crashFull fidelity crash– Virtual test trackVirtual test track– Computational steeringComputational steering
• PetroleumPetroleum– Seismic and reservoir visualizationSeismic and reservoir visualization– Improved substrate modelingImproved substrate modeling– Forward analysis of oil-bearing structuresForward analysis of oil-bearing structures
• ChemicalChemical– Developing new biological compoundsDeveloping new biological compounds– Process modelingProcess modeling– Ecospheric modelingEcospheric modeling
IncreasingComplexity
Next Generation Applications:Next Generation Applications:Examples Examples (Cont.)(Cont.)
• PharmaceuticalPharmaceutical– Properties modelingProperties modeling– High throughput screening High throughput screening – Cell membrane modelingCell membrane modeling– Human Genome data analysisHuman Genome data analysis
• Health SciencesHealth Sciences– Physiological modelingPhysiological modeling
• General belief that the government should General belief that the government should drive investment in advanced HPC systemsdrive investment in advanced HPC systems
• Government needs to facilitate widespread Government needs to facilitate widespread access to the most advanced systemsaccess to the most advanced systems
Industry NeedsGovernmentLeadership
““Loss of leadership in basic HPC tools and Loss of leadership in basic HPC tools and infrastructure would be disastrous. How infrastructure would be disastrous. How can we even think of losing our advanced can we even think of losing our advanced technology advantage.”technology advantage.”
Key FindingsKey Findings…Bottom Line…Bottom Line
The current HPC market situation The current HPC market situation threatens to disturb and potentially damage threatens to disturb and potentially damage the ability of U.S. companies to continue to the ability of U.S. companies to continue to leverage capability computing and therefore leverage capability computing and therefore maintain their competitive position in key maintain their competitive position in key global industries. global industries. – Potentially slow the rate of innovationPotentially slow the rate of innovation– Negatively impact societal benefitsNegatively impact societal benefits– Risk of unbalanced accessRisk of unbalanced access
• Capability systems account for less than 1% of total Capability systems account for less than 1% of total systems sold (175 to 341 systems), and from about 17.4% systems sold (175 to 341 systems), and from about 17.4% to 25.5% of revenues ($884 million to $1.147 billion).to 25.5% of revenues ($884 million to $1.147 billion).
• Assuming current demand conditions, IDC expects the Assuming current demand conditions, IDC expects the capability market to grow by about 2.8% or 2.9% (CAGR) in capability market to grow by about 2.8% or 2.9% (CAGR) in revenue between 1997 and 2002, totaling $1.0 to $1.3 billion revenue between 1997 and 2002, totaling $1.0 to $1.3 billion by 2002. by 2002.
• This is a mature market with limited growth potential, This is a mature market with limited growth potential, although given the drain from HPMR systems, the market although given the drain from HPMR systems, the market has remained fairly stable. has remained fairly stable. – New applicationsNew applications– Strong ROIStrong ROI
The capability market is:The capability market is:
• Split between two competing technologies Split between two competing technologies (vector supercomputers and MPPs)(vector supercomputers and MPPs)
• Divided between three major Japanese vendors Divided between three major Japanese vendors (NEC, Fujitsu, and Hitachi) and two (potentially (NEC, Fujitsu, and Hitachi) and two (potentially one or zero) major U.S. vendors (IBM, SGI/Cray)one or zero) major U.S. vendors (IBM, SGI/Cray)
• Experiencing a significant shift in underlying Experiencing a significant shift in underlying market behavior due to competition from market behavior due to competition from midrange products midrange products
High-Performance Midrange:High-Performance Midrange:Impacts on the Capability MarketImpacts on the Capability Market
• The growth of the midrange, while having a positive The growth of the midrange, while having a positive “overall market” effect, has negatively impacted the “overall market” effect, has negatively impacted the capability segment by: capability segment by: – Severing the relationship between capacity and capability Severing the relationship between capacity and capability
computingcomputing– Constraining the size and growth of the capability market Constraining the size and growth of the capability market
through the “application pipeline effect”through the “application pipeline effect”– Creating significant barriers to entry for new technical Creating significant barriers to entry for new technical
computing companies computing companies » Intense competition blocks new entrantsIntense competition blocks new entrants» High R&D costs vs. limited size of market impacts investors High R&D costs vs. limited size of market impacts investors
Worldwide Technical Market Forecast: Worldwide Technical Market Forecast: Type Share of Revenues 1997 and 2002Type Share of Revenues 1997 and 2002
1997 1997
$5.1B$5.1B
TS40%
HPMR46%
Supers4%
MPP10%
20022002
$8.9B$8.9B
TS41%
HPMR37%
Supers11%
MPP12%
Is There a Business Case for Is There a Business Case for Capability Computing?Capability Computing?
A rule of thumb in this industry:A rule of thumb in this industry:
• New generation “capability system” costs between $200 to New generation “capability system” costs between $200 to $500 million to bring to market. $500 million to bring to market.
• Assuming each of the five vendors brings a new product to Assuming each of the five vendors brings a new product to market every three years, and that R&D expenses average market every three years, and that R&D expenses average $300 million per company, then the industry is investing $300 million per company, then the industry is investing $500 million each year just to develop new innovative $500 million each year just to develop new innovative products. products.
• This is roughly half of the total yearly revenue, and does This is roughly half of the total yearly revenue, and does not include production, sales, marketing, and other not include production, sales, marketing, and other expenses. expenses.
Is There a Business Case for Is There a Business Case for Capability Computing? Capability Computing? (Cont.)(Cont.)
• Given the above analysis, it is difficult to make a Given the above analysis, it is difficult to make a pure business case for computer systems pure business case for computer systems manufacturers to invest in researching, manufacturers to invest in researching, developing, and bringing to market a continuing developing, and bringing to market a continuing stream of capability oriented high-performance stream of capability oriented high-performance computers …computers …
Business Case Business Case (Cont.)(Cont.)
• Other factors to consider would include:Other factors to consider would include:
– Spin-off technologySpin-off technology — Technologies — Technologies developed for supercomputers are developed for supercomputers are eventually incorporated into more eventually incorporated into more general purpose products. general purpose products.
» Japanese computer vendors use this rationale Japanese computer vendors use this rationale consistently. U.S. vendors, on the other hand, tend consistently. U.S. vendors, on the other hand, tend to invest in R&D that can be more directly tied to to invest in R&D that can be more directly tied to existing products with more immediate returns on existing products with more immediate returns on investment.investment.
Business Case cont’dBusiness Case cont’d
– Corporate positioningCorporate positioning — Computer — Computer vendors could view high-performance vendors could view high-performance computers as flagship products to computers as flagship products to establish them as a “world class” player establish them as a “world class” player in the overall computer market.in the overall computer market.
» U.S. systems vendors have moved away from pure U.S. systems vendors have moved away from pure technology as a differentiator, and more strongly technology as a differentiator, and more strongly towards factors such as financial performance towards factors such as financial performance market share, and becoming a “solutions provider,” market share, and becoming a “solutions provider,” especially for commercial applications.especially for commercial applications.
Business Case cont’dBusiness Case cont’d
– Support of national programsSupport of national programs — Some — Some computer vendors have developed high-computer vendors have developed high-performance systems in support of performance systems in support of national security, science, industrial or national security, science, industrial or societal goals.societal goals.
» There is no sure path for a vendor between There is no sure path for a vendor between supporting national security/government program supporting national security/government program efforts and the next generation capability computers efforts and the next generation capability computers that will support industrial requirements. that will support industrial requirements.
Industry’s AlternativesIndustry’s Alternatives
• Develop Specialized SolutionsDevelop Specialized Solutions– Appeal is the perception of low cost and high controlAppeal is the perception of low cost and high control– Reality is high cost, high risk, and poor performanceReality is high cost, high risk, and poor performance
• Wait for More Powerful General Purpose SolutionsWait for More Powerful General Purpose Solutions– Moore’s Law is a compelling propositionMoore’s Law is a compelling proposition– Potentially high riskPotentially high risk
» This strategy is only effective when all competitors have This strategy is only effective when all competitors have access to the same class of computers. The U.S. could be at access to the same class of computers. The U.S. could be at a severe disadvantage in bringing new products to market if a severe disadvantage in bringing new products to market if a significant disparity in available computer technology a significant disparity in available computer technology developed.developed.
Industry’s AlternativesIndustry’s Alternatives
• Purchase foreign built systemsPurchase foreign built systems – Risk of equal accessRisk of equal access– Loss of ecosystemLoss of ecosystem– Control over intellectual property/trade secretsControl over intellectual property/trade secrets– Risks to competitive position in key industries Risks to competitive position in key industries
including ITincluding IT
A few closing thoughts...A few closing thoughts...• Strengthen the marketStrengthen the market
– Reach out beyond the converted. Reach out beyond the converted. – Build the message around “business value”Build the message around “business value”
• Support the vendor communitySupport the vendor community – Make participation in government programs a financially Make participation in government programs a financially
viable activity (money and leverage)viable activity (money and leverage)– Government technology initiatives need to balance Government technology initiatives need to balance
building increasingly exotic and complex systems with building increasingly exotic and complex systems with the realities of the industrial data centerthe realities of the industrial data center
Thoughts…cont’dThoughts…cont’d
• Build bridges across the HPC user communityBuild bridges across the HPC user community– Set up an integrated user organization supporting Set up an integrated user organization supporting
government, academia and industrial usersgovernment, academia and industrial users– Use this forum to influence the future direction of the Use this forum to influence the future direction of the
industry, technology and policyindustry, technology and policy– Provide a community to share common issues, Provide a community to share common issues,
