Skills for the future

The role of occupations in the skills supply and demand forecasts

Vladimir Kvetan

CedefopInGRID Expert workshop New skills new jobs: Tools for harmonising the measurement of occupations

Amsterdam, 10-12 February 2014

Skills for the future

Occupations in the forecasts

• Occupation as inputs

• Occupations as results

• Further focus on occupations

Skills for the future

NA vs. LFS

• Where do you work? / Where do you live?

• better fit in models / more details

• statistical reports / survey data

Skills for the future

NACE rev.2 and ISCO 08

• NACE – change in philosophy of sectors– new sectors (mainly 1 digit)– 2008 and 2009 data available for both

• ISCO– no time series intention– no transformation year (matrix)– timing of introduction

Skills for the future

ISCO 08 regrouping

ISCO 1: Managers, etc. Inclusions ExclusionsHealth service managers Shopkeepers (to Service workers)Elderly care managers Agricultural managers (to Agricultural workers(from Professionals) Film, TV, stage Directors (to Professionals)

Construction supervisors (to Associateprofessionals)

ISCO 2 ProfessionalsInclusions ExclusionsDecorators+commercial designers Health service managersHealth technicians, medical assistants, opticians Nursing professionals (to Associate professionals)

Primary+pre-primary teachers Business service agents (to Associateprofessionals)

Other teaching associate professionalsFinance dealers Technical+commercial sales repsClowns, musicians,acrobats (all from Associateprofessionals)

Skills for the future

ISCO 08 regrouping (2)

ISCO 8- Machine operators, assemblersInclusions Exclusions

Photographic machine operatorsManufacturing supervisors (to Associateprofessionals)

Weaving machine operators (from Skilled manual) Process controllers (to Associate professionals)

Print machine operatorsBook-binding machine operators (to Skilledmanual)Wood machine operators (to Skilled manual)

ISCO 9 – Elementary occupationsInclusions ExclusionsGardeners, nursery workers (from Agriculturalworkers)

Door-to-door+telephone sales persons,

Fast food preparers (from Service workers)Security guards (both to Sales and serviceworkers)

Skills for the future

Employment shares by occupation

EU-27 (% total), 2008-2011

Source: Eurostat, ELFS

Skills for the future

Employment shares for ISCO 1 by country

Source: Eurostat, ELFS

Skills for the future

Two solutions

• Constant share of ISCO 08– relatively easy– not reflecting reality – constant shares in sectors

• Past trends continue– difficult task– trends and changing occupational structure– additional inputs from countries

Skills for the future

Occupations as results

• ISCO 08 • 30 countries, sectors, qualifications• Net change + replacement demand• Available online

– www.cedefop.europa.eu– main results and detailed data

Skills for the future

Occupations as results

Skills for the future

Occupation skills profiles• Coordination characteristics

– level of qualification requirement– field of study

• Main characteristics– knowledge– skills – competences

• Supplementary characteristics– occupaitonal interests– working values

Skills for the future

Qualifications cross sectors

Source: Cedefop, OSP workbooks (2014)

Skills for the future

Qualifications in jobs

Source: Cedefop, OSP workbooks (2014)

Skills for the future

Thank you for your attentionVladimir Kvetan

More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu

orskills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu