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The role of technology in urban development

Bernd Bienzeisler

IFHP Summit, Berlin, 12th November 2015

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The Fraunhofer-Society

Annual volume of research: 2 bn Euro*

Thereof ca. 1,7 bn Euro contract research*

Generated to more than 70% of projects with the industry and from publicly financed research projects

Almost 30% of federal government and regional state for the preliminary research (problem solving, which will be up-to-date in five or ten years for the economy and the society)

* Numbers from 2013

The Inventors of

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Fraunhofer IAO Institute for Industrial Engineering

Year of Foundation: IAO – 1981 IAT – 1991

Director of the institute: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wilhelm Bauer Financial Volume: 31,4 Mill. €,

thereof 33,6 % by order of the economy

Employees: approx. 300 employees

Data of 2013, inclusive IAT of the University Stuttgart

www.iao.fraunhofer.de www.iat.uni-stuttgart.de

„Urban Systems Engineering“

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Preface Digitilization - Something Big is on the Way!

Lan

gu

age

Lett

ers

& W

riti

ng

Prin

tin

g P

ress

Dig

ital

izat

ion

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First mechanical

loom 1784

1st Industrial Revolution by introduction of mechanical production equipment with the help of water and steam power

2nd Industrial Revolution through the introduction of work-sharing mass production with the help of electrical energy

Assembly line at Ford, at the beginning of the 20th century

First

programmable controller with memory (SPS) »Modicon 084« 1969

3rd Industrial Revolution by use of electronics and IT to further automate the production

4th Industrial

Revolution on the basis of cyber-physical systems

End of 18th century Beginning of 20th cent. Beginning of 1970s today

Gra

de o

f co

mp

lexit

y

»Smart Factory«

Digitalization & Industry 4.0

Activity Determination Co-determination Coordination/Cooperation

Resources On prediction On usage Order-related

Processes rigid flexible adaptive in real-time

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Industry 4.0 – The Convergence of ICT Worlds

Digital Product Lifecycle Management

Digital Factory

Digital Factory Operation

Embedded Systems cyber-physical systems

Service orientation

»Internet of Things«

Web 2.0

»Cloud« -orientation

»App« -orientation

Ind

ust

ry 4

.0

Manufacturing-IT

Computer-

Integrated

Manufacturing

IT

World Wide Web

Web-Optimizing

Time 2012 2000 1990

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Source: Frost & Sullivan: 2025 Megatrends

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World Largest Companies 2015 Total Market Capitalization in Billion US Dollar

Source: Die Welt, 2015

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challenge: Urban housing and districts as action fields for cities of the future…

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Overview – Current concepts for future cities

Resilient City

Carbon neutral City

Smart City Green City Intelligent City

Livable City

Sustainable City

Secure City

Post-industrial city Post-fossil city

Healthy City

City of the Future

Adaptive City

Energy-efficient City

Nachhaltige Stadt

Dynamic city

Post-oil city

Creative City

Science City

Flexible city

Safe City meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their needs

Green cities have clean air and

water and pleasant streets and parks. Green cities are resilient in the face of natural disasters, and the risk of

major infectious disease outbreaks in such cities is low. Green cities also

encourage green behavior, such as the use of public transit, and their

ecological impact is relatively small

A smart city is livable, resilient, sustainable, and designed through open and collaborative governance.

An Intelligent City is characterised by its place in the new- or neo-economy with a commitment to cultural

capital, innovative environments, diversity, high social intelligence and digital leadership.

A system that overcompensates is necessarily in overshooting mode, building extra capacity and strength in anticipation for the possibility of a worse outcome, in response to information about the possibility of a hazard.

A resilient city is a city that supports the development of greater resilience in its institutions, infrastructure, and social and economic life. Resilient cities reduce vulnerability to extreme events and respond creatively to economic, social and environmental change in order to increase their long-term sustainability.

Livability is defined as “quality of life” as experienced by the residents within a city or region. livability. sustainability and resiliency are three intertwined elements that together will define the quality of life of current and future residents.

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In 2015, industry promises…

Smart cities are those who manage their resources efficiently. Traffic, public services and disaster…BlaBla

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In 2015, Urban planners ask themselves…

What the …#&%$§?! We have other problems than technology…

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So what about urban innovation…?

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Question #1: What role has innovation played in history´s urban development?

Pope´s speech 2013

>yesterday

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First safe elevator 1851 „All safe, Gentleman, all safe…“

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First Underground train in London 1863 at first with steam locomotives…

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First installed park-o-meters in Oklahoma, 1935 changing the rules of the (parking) game…

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Honeywell H316 kitchen computer, 1969

first vision of the smart home (and smart cooking)

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The birth of the iphone in 2007 Half telephone…half sensor system…

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Share Economy and Open Innovation, 2011 The more you share the wealthier you get?…

car2go

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It took these innovations…

164 years (1662-1826)

2 years (2010-2014)

Horsebusses ICT-based trip sharing

…to scale-up from the first pilot to the fifth use-case.

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Current time horizon for urban development planning (10-15 years)

years

years (log.)

Elektrifizierung

And these are no exceptions: How innovation cycles of urban systems speed-up…

time

1760 there was an urban innovation

cycle of 50+ years… …2015 less than two years!

Source: Fraunhofer IAO, 2014

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What are the game-changing trends until 2025? 11 out of 12 challenges will directly influence urban habitats…

Business with cities instead of in cities

New Energy infrastructures

New Mobility solutions

Digitalisation of urban systems and processes

Connected Solutions

…

Interpretation of global trends

Megatrends are transformative global forces with long-ranging influence on Economy, Society, Business, Culture and Habitats and will shape directly

the future of cities.

Quelle: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2014

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Question #2: What are the future drivers of urban change?

>today

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Challenge for smart and innovative cities… Fraunhofer Morgenstadt Action Fields

mobility

transportation

urban processes

energy

resources

production logistics

information communication

building

planning

transformation management

Economic development & business innovation

Resource

cycles

Security and protection

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Automatization and Digitalization of workforce

„It is a piece of luck for us that the babyboomer currently retire, so we can dismantle ergonomically outdated jobs and replace them with machines - without firing anybody.“ Volkswagen-HRO Horst Neumann, 1 Februar 2015 in: Die Welt

Lowcost Roboter Daxter, 2013

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Urban food production and local resource cycles

Montreal, Kanada

Lufa Farms

Appr. 500 soccer fields on factory and retail roofs could supply all Copenhagen citizens daily with fresh vegetables (400g)…

Study, Fraunhofer IAO, 2015

Lufa Farms, 2011

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Autonomous shared mobility just requires ~10% of cars…

Mountain View, USA

Both Google, Uber and Nissan will offer autonomous mobility soluations before 2020. Singapore has opened first city districts as testfields in 2015.

Wall Street Journal, 15 May 2015

Google Car, 2015

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Logistics: Same-day Delivery + Predictive Shipping

Seattle, USA

In 2015 Amazon has started to ship products before the customer even has clicked the „buy-button“…

Amazon Patent „Predictive Shipping“, 2014

Amazon Dash Button, 2015

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Werner Sobek

Stuttgart, Deutschland

Energy-plus houses provides energy for neighborhoods B10 Aktivhaus – W. Sobek, 2014

From 2021 on, urban districts can generate more energy than they need without additional costs – new decentral energy grids will establish.

Studie, Fraunhofer IBP, 2014

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Urban Mobility becomes flexible and connected…

Helsinki, Finland

Ajelo

Kutsuplus, 2013

On-Demand Mobility organizes urban transport means around the user needs and proves totally new service solutions between existing infrastructures…

Study, Fraunhofer IAO, 2015

© Fraunhofer IAO, IAT Universität Stuttgart

4. Fraunhofer-Initiative Morgenstadt

Question #3: How to enhance urban systems for the future?

>tomorrow

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Our approach – Morgenstadt as joint initiative

Morgenstadt

Resilient City

Carbon neutral City

Smart City Green City Intelligent City

Livable City

Sustainable City

Secure City

Post-industrial city Post-fossil city

Healthy City

City of the Future

Adaptive City

Energy-efficient City

Nachhaltige Stadt

Wandlungsfähige Stadt

Post-oil city

Creative City

Science City

Flexible Stadt

Safe City

Stadt der Zukunft

meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their needs

Green cities have clean air and

water and pleasant streets and parks. Green cities are resilient in the face of natural disasters, and the risk of

major infectious disease outbreaks in such cities is low. Green cities also

encourage green behavior, such as the use of public transit, and their

ecological impact is relatively small

A smart city is livable, resilient, sustainable, and designed through open and collaborative governance.

An Intelligent City is characterised by its place in the new- or neo-economy with a commitment to cultural

capital, innovative environments, diversity, high social intelligence and digital leadership.

A system that overcompensates is necessarily in overshooting mode, building extra capacity and strength in anticipation for the possibility of a worse outcome, in response to information about the possibility of a hazard.

A resilient city is a city that supports the development of greater resilience in its institutions, infrastructure, and social and economic life. Resilient cities reduce vulnerability to extreme events and respond creatively to economic, social and environmental change in order to increase their long-term sustainability.

Livability is defined as “quality of life” as experienced by the residents within a city or region. livability. sustainability and resiliency are three intertwined elements that together will define the quality of life of current and future residents.

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Urban Resilience

Maximum Liveability

Innovation Leadership

Anticipating future urban development The Five Dimensions for Morgenstadt:

Zero Emission/Waste

Productivity of City

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WHO…? Founding partners of m:ci

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NEW PARTNERS in m:ci (2014-2015)

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Phase 2

Creating sustainable urban demonstrators

2014 - 2016

Morgenstadt: Research Phases

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PRAGUE CHEMNITZ LISBON

TIFLIS

MANCHESTER EINDHOVEN STAVANGER STUTTGART MUNICH HAMBURG

REUTLINGEN CHEMNITZ

RIYADH MASDAR

Urban Innovation Projects supported by Fraunhofer Our “laboratories” to innovate with public and private sector

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How to bring innovations in cities?

Physical Level

Systemic Level

Economic Potential Value-creation

Citizens´ Demands

Urban Processes & Governance

Infrastructures Built environment

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The Innovation DNA of a City System

Operation Innovation

Product Innovation Service Innovation City Innovation

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The start of an innovative city is a smart idea…

Urban

planning

Architect Sustainable city

industry

mayor

utilities

Research

consultancy

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Source: Kieran Fitsall 2015, Head of Service Improvement & Transformation, City of Westminster

But Idea Implementation needs Structural Innovation…

Example: Smart Parking, London, Westminster

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Come join us on 25/26 Nov: Fraunhofer conference URBAN FUTURES

Berlin, 25./26. November 2015

Bilingual conference (GER/ENG)

350-400 experts from Germany and Europe on the future of cities

First time all three EU-SCC lighthouse projects will be presented

Highlights from smart urban districts etc.

www.urban-futures.de

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Contact

ww.iao.fraunhofer.de

Bernd Bienzeisler

Fraunhofer-Institut für Arbeitswirtschaft und Organisation (IAO)

Nobelstr. 12; 70569 Stuttgart

bernd.bienzeisler@iao.fraunhofer.de

fon +49 711 970-2088