The role of wage policy in Europe: Implications of the
wage-led demand regime
Ozlem Onaran, Middlesex University and
Engelbert Stockhammer, Kingston University
Motivation• Wage policy
– Full employment – Fair and stable income distribution– Balanced international positions
• Neoclassical/’mainstream’/NCM– Wage flexibility – in theory, wage moderation – in practice– wages merely as a cost item, and ignores the role of wages as a source
of demand• Post-Keynesian/New Economics
– Eurozone: wage-led demand• wage moderation→growth↓, unemployment↑
– Productivity-oriented wage policy– coordination of (national) wage bargaining systems– Take into account inflation target and external position– In the € area: higher wages in Germany!
3
Outline
• What is the effect of a wage cut on demand?• Theoretical background
– Wage-led vs. profit-led demand regime– Neo-Kaleckian/Post-Keynesian model
• Empirical literature• wage policy in Europe
– Imbalances: export-led growth and credit-led growth
– Wage coordination
4
Wage share and GDP growth, 1961-2010
Wage share
5
Wage share and unemployment, 1961-2010
unemployment
Wage share
Model• What is the effect of a wage cut on demand?
• Neo-Kaleckian/Post-Keynesian model
• pro-capital income distribution: + & - effects on aggregate demand
- effect on C: the relative size of the consumption differential out of wage vs. profit income
+ effect on I: the sensitivity of investment to profits
+ effect on NX: the sensitivity of net exports to unit labor costs
Total effect on demand is ambiguous
-: wage-led demand
+: profit-led demand
• Bhaduri and Marglin (1990)
7
Empirical Literature• Systems approach (VAR): Deals with simultaneity, weak in identifying
effects on C and I (few if any control variables)– small effects (Stockhammer & Onaran 04, US, UK, F; Onaran & Stockhammer 05,
Korea, Turkey) or profit-led demand (Barbosa-Filho & Taylor 06, US; Flaschel & Proano 07)
• Single equation approach: Good in identifying effects, bad in dealing with endogeneity– estimate separate C, I, NX functions.
• Bowles & Boyer 95; Naastepad & Storm 06; Hein and Vogel 08: OECD6/8– estimate separate C, I, X, M, P functions
• Onaran, Stockhammer, Grafl 11, Stockhammer, Onaran, Ederer 09; Ederer & Sto. 07, Sto. & Ederer 08, Sto./Hein/Grafl 10: US, Eurozone, France, Austria, Germany respectively
• US: effects of financialization
• Most find wage-led private domestic demand regimes – Onaran et al11, Stockhammer et al09, Storm&Naastepad06, Hein&Vogel08,
Sto.&Ste09
Empirical findings: Euro area• Stockhammer, Onaran, Ederer, CJE 2009• low degree of openness (X/Y: 12%) -> wage-led regime• Estimate the effects of functional income distribution
consumption, investment and net exports• A 1%-pt decrease in the wage share (WS) leads to• Consumption ↓ by 0.4%-pt (as a ratio to GDP)• Investment ↑ by 0.1%-pt (as a ratio to GDP)• Domestic private demand ↓ by 0.3%• Net exports ↑ by 0.1%-pt (0.06-0.13%-pt )• Aggregate demand (private) ↓ by 0.2%→EU as a whole has a wage-led demand regime, although
some individual member states may have a profit-led regime
Wage policy in the Euro area
• Race to the bottom: declining wage shares (22 wage pacts aimed at improving competitiveness)
• Fall in wage share has led to a stagnation of domestic demand• 2 growth models in response: credit-led and export-led
growth• → imbalances within the Euro area
Credit-led Export-led
Center (US, UK) Germany, Austria (Japan)
Periphery Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain
(China)
Germany: GDP, priv. cons., adj WS (1994 = 1)
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
adj.
wag
e sh
are
GD
P, c
on
sum
pti
on
Priv cons.Ger
GDP.Germany
Adj WS.Ger
ULC (2000 = 100; AMECO)
Current account (% GDP)
Current account (% GDP), avg. 2000-07
Germany 3.8 Greece -8.5
Austria 1.7 Portugal -8.9
Netherlands 5.6 Spain -5.8
Italy -1.3
Ireland -2.1
Increases in household debt
Increase in HH debt (in % GDP) 2000/04 and 2000/08
2000/08 2000/08
Germany -11.34 Ireland 61.72
Netherlands 29.1 Greece 18.26 2000/05
Austria 7.21 Spain 32.53
Italy 18.09
Portugal 21.31
How can the €-zone re-balance?
• How much rebalancing is necessary?– ULC 25-30%– German wage growth has to be 2.5%-pts. above
mediterranean wage growth for 10 years!• 1 deflation
– Big contraction in PIIGS to bring down GDP and ULC and thus, ultimately, CA-deficit
– But: that means rising debt ratios!• 2 inflation
– Expansion and/or wage inflation in Germany – Higher inflation target in € area!
Wage coordination• European system of coordinated wage bargaining• As part of a new policy economic policy mix• Aim:
– ensure that living standards of the working class are growing– Prevent excessive inflation– Prevent/counteract imbalances
• wj = xj + pT + a(ULCEU – ULCj) – w..wage growth, x..productivity growth, pT..inflation target,
ULC..unit labour costs, – Subscripts EU and country j– pT would have to be set such as to avoid deflation in all
countries, while allowing rebalancing
Wage policy - conclusions• Focus on wage flexibility is misplaced
– Does not guarantee full employment– Unable to guarantee a fair and stable distr of income– Unable to avoid international imbalances
• Productivity-oriented wage policy to stabilize effective demand
• Coordination of wage bargaining systems to prevent a race to the bottom
• In the Euro area: wage policy has to take into account current account positions
• To avoid a deflationary adjustment: substantially higher wage growth in Germany (mediterranean wages +3%-pts. for 10 yrs)